Archive for the ‘BOPMadness’ Category

2015 BOPMadness (Bufo’s Oscar Prediction Madness) predictions

February 22, 2015

2015 BOPMadness (Bufo’s Oscar Prediction Madness) predictions

Thank you once again to everyone who made predictions this year!

It will be very interesting to see how we do…there are some very tight races this year!

Here are our predictions:

Best Picture:

1. Boyhood (Richard Linklater, Cathleen Sutherland) 76% chance
2. Birdman (Alejandro González Iñárritu, John Lesher, James W. Skotchdopole) 75% chance Winner
3. Selma (Christian Colson, Oprah Winfrey, Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner) 60% chance
4. The Grand Budapest Hotel (Wes Anderson, Scott Rudin, Steven M. Rales, Jeremy Dawson) 51% chance
5. American Sniper (Clint Eastwood, Robert Lorenz, Andrew Lazar, Bradley Cooper, Peter Morgan) 49% chance
6. The Imitation Game (Nora Grossman, Ido Ostrowsky, Teddy Schwarzman) 43% chance (tie)
6. The Theory of Everything (Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, Lisa Bruce, Anthony McCarten) 43% chance (tie)
8. Whiplash (Jason Blum, Helen Estabrook, David Lancaster) 41% chance

Lead Actor:

1. Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything) 91% chance Winner correct
2. Michael Keaton (Birdman) 76% chance
3. Bradley Cooper (American Sniper) 49% chance
4. Benedict Cumberbatch (The Imitation Game) 47% chance
5. Steve Carell (Foxcatcher) 40% chance
Lead Actress:
1. Julianne Moore (Still Alice) 92% chance Winner correct
2. Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl) 58% chance
3, Reese Witherspoon (Wild) 52% chance
4. Marion Cotillard (Two Days, One Night) 50% chance
5. Felicity Jones (The Theory of Everything) 48% chance
Supporting Actor:
1. J.K. Simmons (Whiplash) 86% chance Winner (correct)
2. Edward Norton (Birdman) 62% chance
3. Ethan Hawke (Boyhood) 58% chance
4. Robert Duvall (The Judge) 52% chance
5. Mark Ruffalo (Foxcatcher) 42% chance
Supporting Actress:
1. Patricia Arquette (Boyhood) 90% chance Winner correct
2. Emma Stone (Birdman) 66% chance
3. Laura Dern (Wild) 52% chance (tie)
3. Meryl Streep (Into the Woods) 52% chance (tie)
5. Keira Knightley (The Imitation Game) 40% chance
Director:
1. Richard Linklater (Boyhood) 86% chance
2. Alejandro González Iñárritu (Birdman) 80% chance Winner
3. Wes Anderson (The Grand Budapest Hotel) 58% chance
4. Morten Tyldum (The Imitation Game) 46% chance
5. Bennett Miller (Foxcatcher) 30% chance
Adapted Screenplay:
1. The Imitation Game (Graham Moore) 72% chance (tie)  Winner (half correct)
1. The Theory of Everything (Anthony McCarten) 72% chance (tie)
3. Whiplash (Damien Chazelle) 62% chance
4. American Sniper (Jason Hall) 52% chance
5. Inherent Vice (Paul Thomas Anderson) 42% chance
Original Screenplay:
1. The Grand Budapest Hotel (Wes Anderson, Hugo Guinness) 78% chance
2. Boyhood (Richard Linklater) 76% chance
3. Birdman (Alejandro González Iñárritu, Nicolás Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris, Armando Bo) 74% chance Winner
4. Foxcatcher (E. Max Frye, Dan Futterman) 44% chance
5. Nightcrawler (Dan Gilroy) 28% chance
Cinematography:
1.Birdman (Emmanuel Lubezki) 76% chance (tie) Winner (half correct)
1.The Grand Budapest Hotel (Robert D. Yeoman) 76% chance (tie)
3. Unbroken (Roger Deakins) 52% chance
4. Mr. Turner (Dick Pope) 50% chance
5. Ida (Lukasz Zal, Ryszard Lenczewski) 46% chance
Costume Design:
1. The Grand Budapest Hotel (Milena Canonero) 80% chance Winner correct
2. Into the Woods (Colleen Atwood) 78% chance
3. Mr. Turner (2014): Jacqueline Durran) 58% chance
4. Maleficent (Anna B. Sheppard, Jane Clive) 48% chance
5. Inherent Vice (Mark Bridges) 36% chance
Film Editing:
1. Boyhood (Sandra Adair) 84% chance
2. The Grand Budapest Hotel (Barney Pilling) 62% chance (tie)
3. American Sniper (Joel Cox, Gary Roach) 62% chance (tie)
4. Whiplash (Tom Cross) 54% chance Winner
5. The Imitation Game (William Goldenberg) 28% chance
Makeup & Hairstyling:
1. The Grand Budapest Hotel (Frances Hannon, Mark Coulier) 87% chance Winner correct
2. Foxcatcher (Bill Corso, Dennis Liddiard) 57% chance (tie)
2. Guardians of the Galaxy (Elizabeth Yianni-Georgiou, David White) 57% chance (tie)
Production Design:
1.The Grand Budapest Hotel (Adam Stockhausen, Anna Pinnock) 86% chance Winner correct
2. Into the Woods (Dennis Gassner, Anna Pinnock) 68% chance
3. The Imitation Game (Maria Djurkovic, Tatiana Macdonald) 60% chance
4. Mr. Turner (Suzie Davies, Charlotte Watts) 48% chance
5. Interstellar (Nathan Crowley, Gary Fettis) 28% chance
Sound Editing:
1. American Sniper (Alan Robert Murray, Bub Asman) 90% chance Winner correct
2. Birdman (Aaron Glascock, Martín Hernández) 58% chance (tie)
2. Interstellar (Richard King) 58% chance (tie)
4. Unbroken (Becky Sullivan, Andrew DeCristofaro) 56% chance
5. The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies (Brent Burge, Jason Canovas) 38% chance
Sound Mixing:
1. American Sniper (John T. Reitz, Gregg Rudloff, Walt Martin) 78% chance
2. Whiplash (Craig Mann, Ben Wilkins, Thomas Curley) 66% chance Winner
3. Birdman (on Taylor, Frank A. Montaño, Thomas Varga) 56% chance
4. Unbroken (Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montaño, David Lee) 52% chance
5. Interstellar (Gary Rizzo, Gregg Landaker, Mark Weingarten) 48% chance
Visual Effects:
1. Interstellar (Paul J. Franklin, Andrew Lockley, Ian Hunter, Scott R. Fisher) 84% chance Winner correct
2. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes (Joe Letteri, Dan Lemmon, Daniel Barrett, Erik Winquist) 74% chance
3. Guardians of the Galaxy (Stephane Ceretti, Nicolas Aithadi, Jonathan Fawkner, Paul Corbould) 68% chance
4. X-Men: Days of Future Past (Richard Stammers, Lou Pecora, Tim Crosbie, Cameron Waldbauer) 40% chance
5. Captain America: The Winter Soldier (Dan Deleeuw, Russell Earl, Bryan Grill, Daniel Sudick) 34% chance
Animated Feature:
1. How to Train Your Dragon 2 73% chance
2. Big Hero Six 71% chance Winner
3. The Boxtrolls 56% chance (tie)
3. The Tale of the Princess Kaguya 56% chance (tie)
5. Song of the Sea 44% chance
Documentary Feature:
1. Virunga (Orlando von Einsiedel, Joanna Natasegara) 67% chance
2. Citizenfour: Laura Poitras, Mathilde Bonnefoy, Dirk Wilutzky) 62% chance (tie) Winner
2. Last Days in Vietnam (Rory Kennedy, Keven McAlester) 62% chance (tie)
4. Finding Vivian Maier (John Maloof, Charlie Siskel)  58% chance
5. The Salt of the Earth (Wim Wenders, Juliano Ribeiro Salgado, David Rosier) 51% chance
Documentary Short:
1. White Earth (Christian Jensen) 78% chance
2. Joanna (Aneta Kopacz) 62% chance
3. Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1 (Ellen Goosenberg Kent, Dana Perry) 56% chance (tie) Winner
3. The Reaper (Gabriel Serra) 56% chance (tie)
5. Our Curse (Tomasz Sliwinski, Maciej Slesicki) 49% chance
Foreign Language Film:
1. Ida (Pawel Pawlikowski) 80% chance Winner correct
2. Timbuktu (Abderrahmane Sissako) 58% chance
3. Leviathan (Andrey Zvyagintsev) 56% chance (tie)
3. Wild Tales (Damián Szifrón) 56% chance (tie)
5. Tangerines (Zaza Urushadze) 51% chance
Music – Score:
1. The Theory of Everything (Jóhann Jóhannsson) 84% chance
2. The Grand Budapest Hotel (Alexandre Desplat) 76% chance Winner
3. The Imitation Game (Alexandre Desplat) 58% chance
4. Mr. Turner (Gary Yershon) 42% chance
5. Interstellar (Hans Zimmer) 40% chance
Music – Song:
1. Selma (Common, John Legend) (Glory) 90% chance Winner correct
2. Glen Campbell: I’ll Be Me (Glen Campbell, Julian Raymond) (I’m Not Gonna Miss You)  68% chance
3. The Lego Movie (Shawn Patterson) (Everything is Awesome) 60% chance
4. Begin Again (Gregg Alexander, Danielle Brisebois) (Lost Stars) 43% chance
5. Beyond the Lights (Diane Warren) (Grateful) 40% chance
Short – Animated:
1. Feast (Patrick Osborne, Kristina Reed) 89% chance Winner correct
2. The Dam Keeper (Robert Kondo, Daisuke ‘Dice’ Tsutsumi) 64% chance
3. A Single Life (Joris Oprins) 53% chance
4. The Bigger Picture (Daisy Jacobs, Chris Hees) 47% chance (tie)
4. Me and My Moulton (Torill Kove) 47% chance (tie)
Short – Live Action:
1. The Phone Call (Mat Kirkby, James Lucas) 76% chance Winner correct
2. Parvaneh (Talkhon Hamzavi, Stefan Eichenberger) 67% chance
3. Boogaloo and Graham (Michael Lennox, Ronan Blaney) 64% chance
4. Butter Lamp (Wei Hu, Julien Féret) 51% chance
5. Aya (Oded Binnun, Mihal Brezis) 42% chance
Our best bets (90% or higher):
  1. Lead Actress: Julianne Moore 92%
  2. Lead Actor: Eddie Remayne: 91%
  3. Supporting Actress: Patricia Arquette: 90%
  4. Music – Song: Glory from Selma: 90%
  5. Sound Editing: American Sniper 90%

We have some very close races this year!

  1. Adapted Screenplay tied for The Imitation Game and the Theory of Everything
  2. Cinematography tied for Birdman and The Grand Budapest Hotel
  3. Best Picture: we have Boyhood edging out Birdman by 1%!

See you in the movies!

Update: here is a summary of the results.

We weren’t quite as accurate as a team in 2015 as we were in 2014.

Overall, we were at 74.55% this year, versus 77.38% last year.

We were better on the Incredibly Difficult Maven section this year (74.55%) versus last year 68.07%.

On the Big Six (acting, Picture, Director) we got 88.33% this year, beating last years 79.41%.

Our individual winners were:

  • Big Six was Jimmy Orsag…with a perfect 100%!
  • The Incredibly Difficult Maven section was Neil Lapinsky, with a remarkable 90.91%!
  • Neil also did well on the Big Six, which combined meant winning overall with 92.56%!

Congratulations to Jimmy and Neil!

They have won that most valuable of human possessions: braggin’ rights! :)

As a group, we called all of the acting categories…but missed on both Director and Picture. We thought both would go to Boyhood, although Birdman was our second choice.

We were most shocked by the Documentary Short, only getting a 55.56%.

I would say that generally, we slightly underestimated Birdman (I didn’t think the Academy would go that geeky, for example), and Whiplash surprised us with technical wins.

Hope everybody reading this will play next year!

Join thousands of readers and try the free The Measured Circle magazine at Flipboard 

This post by Bufo Calvin originally appeared in the  The Measured Circle blog. To support this or other blogs/organizations, buy  Amazon Gift Cards from a link on the site, then use those to buy your items. There will be no cost to you, and a benefit to them.

2015 BOPMadness (Bufo’s Oscar Prediction Madness)

January 25, 2015

2015 BOPMadness (Bufo’s Oscar Prediction Madness)

For more than twenty years, I’ve been doing an Oscar prediction contest.

Important note: there is no fee to play the  game, and we only play for that most valuable of human possessions…bragging rights. 

We do ours a bit differently than most. You rank every nominee, and then you get the number of points you assigned to the winner.

For example, there are five nominees for Actor in a Leading Role. You would assign the one you thought the Academy was most likely to pick (not necessarily the one you thought most deserved it) with a 5. Your second most likely would be a 4, and so on.

For the first time this year, we are using SurveyMonkey, rather than Excel.

That means you can play anonymously, if you prefer…we also think many people may find it easier.

There are three surveys (we are currently limited to no more than ten questions per survey):

Big Six and Screenwriting:

https://www.surveymonkey.com/s/QHWZNNZ

Design and Appearance:

https://www.surveymonkey.com/s/JRVRTCB

Whole Movies and Music

https://www.surveymonkey.com/s/JM2JTCS

If you would like to be recognized as a winner of the Big Six (the acting awards, Best Picture, and Best Director), the Incredibly Difficult Maven Section (everything else), and/or Overall, you’ll have the opportunity at the site to enter your name (that will not be public). If you’d like to receive future communications about BOPMadness, you can also enter your e-mail address there (again, that will not be public).

If you have any questions, you can comment on this post. If you’d like your comment to remain private, please let me know in the comment.

We will post the group predictions here before the Oscar ceremony on Sunday, February 22nd.

The more people who play, the more accurate we tend to be…feel free to share this with anyone you think would like to participate.

See you in the movies!

Join thousands of readers and try the free The Measured Circle magazine at Flipboard

This post by Bufo Calvin originally appeared in the  The Measured Circle blog. To support this or other blogs/organizations, buy  Amazon Gift Cards from a link on the site, then use those to buy your items. There will be no cost to you, and a benefit to them.

2015 Oscar noms

January 15, 2015

2015 Oscar noms

This is very preliminary, almost live-blogging. :) I’ll call out the geeky nominees as I catch them, sometimes shortening the names. After the announcements, I’ll formalize it more and add some comments.

Announcements are over…some early thoughts:

  • I’m surprised by the number of nominations for Interstellar…more than I expected
  • Birdman gets three acting noms
  • Best songs can still come from animated movies…and very popular (and profitable) ones at that
  • Maleficent is Oscar nominated
  • Guardians of the Galaxy was nominated for Hair and Makeup…and Into the Woods wasn’t
  • The Imitation Game got a lot of love
  • Eddie Redmayne was nominated…and seems to me to be the one to beat. It’s almost a perfect Oscar storm…and wouldn’t it be great to see Stephen Hawking at the ceremony?
  • Blockbuster geek movies which may be critical disfaves often get rewarded in technical categories…I didn’t see so much of that this time. For example, no noms for Transformers (we could have seen sound or Special Effects, perhaps)
  • You could notice how the lack of eligibility affects some categories: The Hanging Tree from The Hunger Games wasn’t eligible, Birdman for Score…
  • The Lego Movie was not nominated for Best Animated Feature
  • This is a notably non-diverse group of major nominees: I think we’ll hear people commenting on that

Best Original Song

  • Everything is Awesome from the Lego Movie

SFX (Special Effects)

  • Captain America: The Winter Soldier
  • Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
  • Guardians of the Galaxy
  • Interstellar
  • X-Men: Days of Future Past

Doc Short

Doc Feature

  • Citizen Four

Editing

  • The Imitation Game

Sound Editing

  • Birdman
  • The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
  • Interstellar

Sound Mixing

  • Birdman
  • Interstellar

Production Design

  • The Imitation Game
  • Interstellar
  • Into the Woods

Live Action Short

Animated Short

Best Animated Feature

  • Big Hero Six
  • Boxtrolls
  • How to Train Your Dragon 2
  • Song of the Sea
  • Tale of the Princess Kaguya

 Supporting Actor

  • Edward Norton in Birdman

Supporting Actress

  • Keira Knightly in The Imitation Game
  • Emma Stone in Birdman
  • Meryl Srteep in Into the Woods

Makeup and Hairstyling

  • Guardians of the Galaxy

Costume

  • Into the Woods
  • Maleficent

Cinematography

  • Birdman

Adapted Screenplay

  • The Imitation Game
  • The Theory of Everything

Original Screenplay

  • Birdman

Original Score

  • The Imitation Game
  • Interstellar
  • The Theory of Everything

Foreign Language

Directing

  • Birdman
  • The Imitation Game

Lead Actress

  • Felicity Jones The Theory of Everything

Lead Actor

  • Benedict Cumberbatch in The Imitation Game
  • Michael Keaton in Birdman
  • Eddie Redmayne in The Theory of Everything

Best Picture

  • Birdman
  • The Imitation Game
  • The Theory of Everything

2015 Oscar nominations video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U1G_C6ygtRA

Complete list of nominees from the Academy website:

http://oscar.go.com/nominees

Join thousands of readers and try the free The Measured Circle magazine at Flipboard

This post by Bufo Calvin originally appeared in the  The Measured Circle blog. To support this or other blogs/organizations, buy  Amazon Gift Cards from a link on the site, then use those to buy your items. There will be no cost to you, and a benefit to them.

2014 BOPMadness (Bufo’s Oscar Prediction Madness) results

March 3, 2014

2014 BOPMadness (Bufo’s Oscar Prediction Madness) results

This post will be updated with our individual winners, but we wanted to get you our group results right away (and include the Oscar winners).

  • Best Picture: 12 Years a Slave (predicted)
  • Lead Actor: Matthew McConaughey (half predicted…we had a tie with Chiwetel Ejiofor)
  • Lead Actress: Cate Blanchett (predicted)
  • Supporting Actor: Jared Leto (predicted)
  • Supporting Actress: Lupito Nyong’o (predicted)
  • Directing: Alfonso Cuaron (miss…we went with Steve McQueen)
  • Original Screenplay: Her (predicted)
  • Adapted Screenplay: 12 Years a Slave (miss: we predicted Philomena)
  • Animated Feature: Frozen (predicted)
  • Foreign Language Film: The Great Beauty (predicted)
  • Cinematography: Gravity (predicted)
  • Film Editing: Gravity (predicted)
  • Production Design: The Great Gatsby (predicted)
  • Costume Design: The Great Gatsby (miss…we did the American Hustle)
  • Makeup and Hairstyling: Dallas Buyers Club (predicted)
  • Music Score: Gravity (miss: we predicted Philomena)
  • Song: Let It Go from Gravity (predicted)
  • Sound Mixing: Gravity (predicted)
  • Sound Editing: Gravity (predicted)
  • Visual Effects: Gravity (predicted)
  • Documentary Feature: Twenty Feet from Stardom (miss…we said The Act of Killing)
  • Documentary Short: The Lady in Number 6 (predicted)
  • Animated Short: Mr. Hublot (miss…we had a Mickey Mouse answer, Get a Horse!)
  • Live Action Short: Helium (half-predicted: we had a tie with The Voorman Problem)

Overall, we did well! We got four and a half (the half is due to a tie) of the Big Six, and twelve and a half out of eighteen of the Incredibly Difficult Maven Section. This seemed like a difficult year, with a lot of close calls.

More analysis to come, including our percentage scores, and our individual winners.

Thanks again to everyone who played! See you in the movies!

Update: here is the individual analysis!

Team:

  • Big Six: 79.41%
  • Incredibly Difficult Maven Section: 68.07%
  • Overall: 77.38

Congratulations to Mike Weston, who won in all three categories!

  • Big Six: 100%
  • Incredibly Difficult Maven Section: 87.63%
  • Overall: 98.35%

Mike also won the Maven and Overall last year…he’s on a roll. ;)

Marianne Adoor and Neil Lapinsky (two new players) tied Mike in the Big Six: all three of these great  predictors picked all of the Big Six categories! Congratulations to you all!

This post by Bufo Calvin originally appeared in the The Measured Circle.

2014 BOPmadness (Bufo’s Oscar Prediction Madness) predictions

March 2, 2014

2014 BOPmadness (Bufo’s Oscar Prediction Madness) predictions

Thank you to everyone who made predictions!

This is being published prior to the Oscar ceremony.

Based on our respondents, this seems like it was a particularly difficult year: I don’t recall scores being this close (including two ties).

Let’s start out with the probability we collectively assigned each nominee:

Category Nominee Percent Projected Winner
Makeup & Hair Styling Dallas Buyers Club 87.50% Projected Winner
Cinematography Gravity 85.00% Projected Winner
Best Picture 12 Years a Slave 84.72% Projected Winner
Music: Song Let It Go from Frozen 84.38% Projected Winner
Lead Actress Cate Blanchett 82.50% Projected Winner
Supporting Actress Lupito Nyong’o 82.50% Projected Winner
Sound Mixing Gravity 82.50% Projected Winner
Animated Feature Frozen 82.50% Projected Winner
Best Picture American Hustle 81.94%
Lead Actor Chiwetel Ejiofor 80.00% Projected Winner
Lead Actor Matthew McConaughey 80.00% Projected Winner
Costume Design American Hustle 80.00% Projected Winner
Visual Effects Gravity 80.00% Projected Winner
Supporting Actor Jared Leto 77.50% Projected Winner
Director 12 Years a Slave 77.50% Projected Winner
Sound Editing Gravity 77.50% Projected Winner
Documentary Short The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life 77.50% Projected Winner
Cinematography Nebraska 75.00%
Film Editing Gravity 75.00% Projected Winner
Documentary Feature The Act of Killing 75.00% Projected Winner
Animated Short Get a Horse! 75.00% Projected Winner
Costume Design The Great Gatsby 72.50%
Costume Design 12 Years a Slave 72.50%
Production Design The Great Gatsby 72.50% Projected Winner
Sound Mixing Captain Phillips 72.50%
Documentary Feature 20 Feet from Stardom 72.50%
Foreign Language Film The Great Beauty 72.50% Projected Winner
Music Score Philomena 72.50% Projected Winner
Live Action Short Helium 72.50% Projected Winner
Live Action Short The Voorman Problem 72.50% Projected Winner
Supporting Actor Barkhad Abdi 70.00%
Director American Hustle 70.00%
Visual Effects The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug 67.50%
Makeup & Hair Styling The Lone Ranger 66.67%
Supporting Actress Jennifer Lawrence 65.00%
Production Design American Hustle 65.00%
Production Design Gravity 65.00%
Sound Editing Captain Phillips 65.00%
Documentary Feature The Square 65.00%
Music Score Gravity 65.00%
Best Picture Dallas Buyers Club 62.50%
Director Gravity 62.50%
Cinematography Prisoners 62.50%
Production Design 12 Years a Slave 62.50%
Animated Feature Despicable Me 2 62.50%
Animated Feature The Wind Rises 62.50%
Documentary Short Facing Fear 62.50%
Foreign Language Film The Broken Circle Breakdown 62.50%
Music Score Saving Mr. Banks 62.50%
Music: Song Ordinary Love from Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom 62.50%
Animated Short Mr. Hublot 62.50%
Best Picture Gravity 61.11%
Lead Actress Amy Adams 60.00%
Supporting Actor Bradley Cooper 60.00%
Documentary Short Prison Terminal: The Last Days of Private Jack Hall 60.00%
Foreign Language Film Omar 60.00%
Music Score Her 60.00%
Supporting Actor Michael Fassbender 57.50%
Supporting Actress Sally Hawkins 57.50%
Sound Editing The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug 57.50%
Sound Mixing Inside Llewyn Davis 57.50%
Visual Effects Iron Man 3 57.50%
Animated Short Room on the Broom 57.50%
Live Action Short Avant Que De Tout Perdre 57.50%
Music: Song The Moon Song from Her 56.25%
Supporting Actress Julia Roberts 55.00%
Film Editing American Hustle 55.00%
Film Editing 12 Years a Slave 55.00%
Documentary Short CaveDigger 55.00%
Animated Short Possessions 55.00%
Lead Actress Judi Dench 52.50%
Lead Actress Sandra Bullock 52.50%
Lead Actress Meryl Streep 52.50%
Sound Editing All Is Lost 52.50%
Animated Feature Ernest & Celstine 52.50%
Foreign Language Film The Hunt 52.50%
Foreign Language Film The Missing Picture 52.50%
Lead Actor Bruce Dern 50.00%
Director The Wolf of Wall Street 50.00%
Visual Effects Star Trek Into Darkness 50.00%
Animated Short Feral 50.00%
Live Action Short Aquel No Era Yo 50.00%
Best Picture The Wolf of Wall Street 48.61%
Lead Actor Leonardo DiCaprio 47.50%
Sound Editing Lone Survivor 47.50%
Documentary Feature Dirty Wars 47.50%
Live Action Short Pitaako Mun Kakki Hoitaa 47.50%
Music: Song Happy from Despicable Me 2 46.88%
Makeup & Hair Styling Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa 45.83%
Sound Mixing Lone Survivor 45.00%
Visual Effects The Lone Ranger 45.00%
Documentary Short Karama Has No Walls 45.00%
Best Picture Captain Phillips 44.44%
Best Picture Nebraska 43.06%
Lead Actor Christian Bale 42.50%
Director Nebraska 42.50%
Cinematography Inside Llewyn Davis 42.50%
Sound Mixing The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug 42.50%
Supporting Actress June Squibb 40.00%
Film Editing Captain Phillips 40.00%
Animated Feature The Croods 40.00%
Documentary Feature Cutie and the Boxer 40.00%
Music Score The Book Thief 40.00%
Best Picture Her 37.50%
Costume Design The Grandmaster 37.50%
Costume Design The Invisible Woman 37.50%
Film Editing Dallas Buyers Club 37.50%
Supporting Actor Jonah Hill 35.00%
Cinematography The Grandmaster 35.00%
Production Design Her 35.00%
Best Picture Philomena 34.72%

As you can see, we are most sure about Dallas Buyers Club getting Makeup and Hair Styling. We would be most shocked if Philomena won Best Picture. We split on Lead Actor and Live Action Short.

Here’s how it looks just for projected winners:

Category
Nominee
Percent
Projected Winner
Makeup & Hair Styling Dallas Buyers Club 87.50% Projected Winner
Cinematography Gravity 85.00% Projected Winner
Best Picture 12 Years a Slave 84.72% Projected Winner
Music: Song Let It Go from Frozen 84.38% Projected Winner
Lead Actress Cate Blanchett 82.50% Projected Winner
Supporting Actress Lupito Nyong’o 82.50% Projected Winner
Sound Mixing Gravity 82.50% Projected Winner
Animated Feature Frozen 82.50% Projected Winner
Lead Actor Chiwetel Ejiofor 80.00% Projected Winner
Lead Actor Matthew McConaughey 80.00% Projected Winner
Costume Design American Hustle 80.00% Projected Winner
Visual Effects Gravity 80.00% Projected Winner
Supporting Actor Jared Leto 77.50% Projected Winner
Director 12 Years a Slave 77.50% Projected Winner
Sound Editing Gravity 77.50% Projected Winner
Documentary Short The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life 77.50% Projected Winner
Film Editing Gravity 75.00% Projected Winner
Documentary Feature The Act of Killing 75.00% Projected Winner
Animated Short Get a Horse! 75.00% Projected Winner
Production Design The Great Gatsby 72.50% Projected Winner
Foreign Language Film The Great Beauty 72.50% Projected Winner
Music Score Philomena 72.50% Projected Winner
Live Action Short Helium 72.50% Projected Winner
Live Action Short The Voorman Problem 72.50% Projected Winner

We apologize that formatting precludes putting all of the nominees’ names, or identifying the movies in the acting categories. That information did appear in the surveys, which were available here:

2014 BOPMadness (Bufo’s Oscar Prediction Madness)

See you in the movies!

Update: we inadvertently left off our predictions for screenplay:

Adapted Screenplay Before Midnight 45.00% 18 8 5
Adapted Screenplay Captain Phillips 55.00% 22 8 5
Adapted Screenplay Philomena 97.50% Projected Winner 39 8 5
Adapted Screenplay 12 Years a Slave 90.00% 36 8 5
Adapted Screenplay The Wolf of Wall Street 72.50% 29 8 5
Original Screenplay American Hustle 37.50% 15 8 5
Original Screenplay Blue Jasmine 72.50% 29 8 5
Original Screenplay Dallas Buyers Club 62.50% 25 8 5
Original Screenplay Her 75.00% Projected Winner 30 8 5
Original Screenplay Nebraska 52.50% 21 8 5

This post by Bufo Calvin originally appeared in the The Measured Circle.

2014 BOPMadness (Bufo’s Oscar Prediction Madness)

February 21, 2014

2014 BOPMadness (Bufo’s Oscar Prediction Madness)

For more than twenty years, I’ve been doing an Oscar prediction contest.

Important note: there is no fee to play the  game, and we only play for that most valuable of human possessions…bragging rights. 

We do ours a bit differently than most. You rank every nominee, and then you get the number of points you assigned to the winner.

For example, there are five nominees for Actor in a Leading Role. You would assign the one you thought the Academy was most likely to pick (not necessarily the one you thought most deserved it) with a 5. Your second most likely would be a 4, and so on.

For the first time this year, we are using SurveyMonkey, rather than Excel.

That means you can play anonymously, if you prefer…we also think many people may find it easier.

There are three surveys (we are currently limited to no more than ten questions per survey):

Big Six and Screenwriting:

https://www.surveymonkey.com/s/RL8CBQX

Design and Appearance:

https://www.surveymonkey.com/s/X97YSM9

Whole Movies and Music

https://www.surveymonkey.com/s/X9CPKTZ

If you would like to be recognized as a winner of the Big Six (the acting awards, Best Picture, and Best Director), the Incredibly Difficult Maven Section (everything else), and/or Overall, you’ll have the opportunity at the site to enter your name (that will not be public). If you’d like to receive future communications about BOPMadness, you can also enter your e-mail address there (again, that will not be public).

If you have any questions, you can comment this post. If you’d like your comment to remain private, please let me know in the comment.

We will post the group predictions here before the Oscar ceremony on Sunday, March 2nd.

The more people who play, the more accurate we tend to be…feel free to share this with anyone you think would like to participate.

See you in the movies!

Nominate a child to be given a free Kindle at Give a Kid a Kindle.

This post by Bufo Calvin originally appeared in the The Measured Circle.

2013 BOPMadness (Bufo’s Oscar Prediction Madness) results

February 25, 2013

2013 BOPMadness (Bufo’s Oscar Prediction Madness) results

How did we do predicting this year’s Oscars?

As a group, we got 85%* of the possible score on the Big Six categories (the acting awards, Best Picture, Best Director), and called four out of six of them.

While we didn’t call Ang Lee (we went for Lincoln), it wasn’t a shock…he was our second choice (as a group), with a 71% probability to Spielberg’s 80%.

Christoph Waltz did surprise us (and, I think, a lot of people)…we had Tommy Lee Jones as a strong favorite (86%), and both Alan Arkin and Robert De Niro ahead of Waltz at 63% versus 49% for Waltz (we didn’t think this was Philip Seymour Hoffman’s year).

Scott Calvin is the winner on the Big Six…with 100%! Congratulations to Scott, who got those all correct.

When we get to the rest of the categories (which we call The Incredibly Difficult Maven section), we had a group score 72%. We called twelve out of the 18 categories, missing on the documentary categories, live action short, Production Design, and the screenwriting categories.

That’s not a great year for us, and there may have been some factors.

For one thing, I think it was a great movie year, perhaps the best since 1939. More high quality choices make it harder to pick.

Second, the mismatch in the number of Best Picture nominees and other category nominees can confuse things. This isn’t the first year that’s happened, but I think when a movie is up for Best Picture, you tend to weight it higher in other categories as well. You can see that impact in the screenwriting categories. This year, every adapted screenplay nominee was also up for Best Picture (as were three of the original screenplay nominees).  Last year, only three of the Adapted Screenplay nominees were also Best Picture nominees…I think that muddies the water.

Congratulations to Mike Weston, who had an 89% on the Maven section, and was our winner there! Mike also got 91% on the Big Six, and was the overall winner, with 90%!

You can play next year! Watch this space…

* Numbers are tentative: we’ll double-check this later

This post by Bufo Calvin originally appeared in the The Measured Circle blog.

2013 BOPMadness Oscar Predictions (updated with Oscar winners)

February 24, 2013

2013 BOPMadness Oscar Predictions (updated with Oscar winners)

This is being published before the start of the 2012 Oscar broadcast. (It has been updated since then with Oscar results)

It’s based on aggregate analysis of the ballots submitted in the 2013 BOPMadness (Bufo’s Oscar Prediction Madness) contest.

Thanks to everyone who played! I’ll give individual results to the winners in the next few days. We announce a winner in the Big Six (the acting categories, director, and picture), the incredibly difficult Maven section (everything else), and overall.

Note: these have been updated since first published, but still before the announcements.

First, to keep it simple, here are our predictions:

THE BIG SIX

  • Best Picture: Argo  | Winner: Argo
  • Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis for Lincoln  | Winner: Daniel Day-Lewis
  • Best Actress: Jennifer Lawrence for Silver Linings Playbook  | Winner: Jennifer Lawrence
  • Best Supporting Actor: Tommy Lee Jones for Lincoln  | Winner: Christoph Waltz
  • Best Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway for Les Misérables  | Winner: Anne Hathaway
  • Best Director: Steven Spielberg for Lincoln  | Winner: Ang Lee

THE INCREDIBLY DIFFICULT MAVEN SECTION

  • Foreign Language: Amour (Austria)  | Winner: Amour
  • Adapted Screenplay:  Tony Kushner for Lincoln  | Winner: Argo
  • Original Screenplay: Mark Boal for Zero Dark Thirty  | Winner: Django Unchained
  • Production Design: Les Misérables  | Winner: Lincoln
  • Cinematography: Life of Pi  | Winner: Life of Pi
  • Editing: William Goldenberg for Argo Winner: Argo
  • Sound Mixing: Les Misérables  | Winner: Les Misérables
  • Sound Editing: Zero Dark Thirty*  | Winner: tie between Skyfall and Zero Dark Thirty (those were our first and second picks)
  • Score: Life of Pi  | Winner: Life of Pi
  • Song: Skyfall from Skyfall  | Winner; Skyfall
  • Costume: Anna Karenina  | Winner: Anna Karenina
  • Documentary Feature: How to Survive a Plague  | Winner: Searching for Sugar Man
  • Documentary Short: Mondays at Racine  | Winner: Inocente
  • Makeup & Hair Styling: Les Misérables  | Winner: Les Misérables
  • Animated Short: Paperman  | Winner: Paperman
  • Animated Feature: Brave  | Winner: Brave
  • Live Action Short: Asad  | Winner: Curfew
  • Visual Effects: Life of Pi  | Winner: Life of Pi

Now, here are our group predictions ranked in order of what we think is most probable (Amour for Foreign Language) to the least (Django Unchained for Best Picture):

Category Movie Nominee Probability
Best Actor Lincoln Daniel Day-Lewis 97%
Best Actress Silver Linings Playbook Jennifer Lawrence 97%
Best Picture Argo Grant Heslov, Ben Affleck, George Clooney 97%
Foreign Language  Film Amour Austria 94%
Animated Feature Brave Mark Andrews, Brenda Chapman 91%
Best Picture Lincoln Steven Spielberg, Kathleen Kennedy 90%
Supporting Actress Les Misérables Anne Hathaway 89%
Costume Anna Karenina Jacqueline Durran 89%
Supporting Actor Lincoln Tommy Lee Jones 86%
Costume Les Misérables Paco Delgado 86%
Makeup & Hair Styling Les Misérables Lisa Westcott, Julie Dartnell 86%
Animated Short Paperman John Kahrs 86%
Supporting Actress Lincoln Sally Field 83%
Score Life of Pi Mychael Danna 83%
Song Skyfall Skyfall by Adele, Paul Epworth 83%
Visual Effects Life of Pi Bill Westenhofer, Guillaume Rocheron, Erik De Boer, Donald Elliott 83%
Sound Editing Zero Dark Thirty Paul N.J. Ottosson 83%
Director Lincoln Steven Spielberg 80%
Original Screenplay Zero Dark Thirty Mark Boal 80%
Editing Argo William Goldenberg 80%
Cinematography Life of Pi Claudio Miranda 77%
Sound Editing Skyfall Per Hallberg, Karen M. Baker 77%
Song Les Misérables Suddenly by Alain Boublil, Claude-Michel Schönberg, Herbert Kretzmer 77%
Live Action Short Asad Bryan Buckley, Mino Jarjoura 77%
Documentary Feature How to Survive a Plague David France, Howard Gertler 74%
Visual Effects The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey Joe Letteri, Eric Saindon, David Clayton, R. Christopher White 74%
Best Picture Silver Linings Playbook Donna Gigliotti, Bruce Cohen, Jonathan Gordon 71%
Best Actress Zero Dark Thirty Jessica Chastain 71%
Director Life of Pi Ang Lee 71%
Adapted Screenplay Lincoln Tony Kushner 71%
Production Design Les Misérables Eve Stewart, Anna-Lynch Robinson 71%
Documentary Feature The Invisible War Kirby Dick, Amy Ziering 71%
Documentary Short Mondays at Racine Cynthia Wade, Robin Honan 71%
Makeup & Hair Styling The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey Peter King, Rick Findlater, Tami Lane 71%
Visual Effects The Avengers Janek Sirrs, Jeff White, Guy Williams, Daniel Sudick 71%
Cinematography Lincoln Janusz Kaminski 69%
Animated Short Adam and Dog Minkyu Lee 69%
Live Action Short Buzkashi Boys Sam French, Ariel Nasr 69%
Live Action Short Death of a Shadow Tom Van Avermaet, Ellen De Waele 69%
Adapted Screenplay Argo Chris Terrio 66%
Adapted Screenplay Life of Pi David Magee 66%
Adapted Screenplay Silver Linings Playbook David O. Russell 66%
Original Screenplay Amour Michael Haneke 66%
Original Screenplay Moonrise Kingdom Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola 66%
Production Design Lincoln Rick Carter, Jim Erickson 66%
Sound Mixing Les Misérables Andy Nelson, Mark Paterson, Simon Hayes 66%
Score Argo Alexandre Desplat 66%
Costume Lincoln Joanna Johnston 66%
Editing Zero Dark Thirty William Goldenberg, Dylan Tichenor 66%
Animated Feature Frankenweenie Tim Burton 66%
Best Actor Silver Linings Playbook Bradley Cooper 63%
Supporting Actor Argo Alan Arkin 63%
Supporting Actor Silver Linings Playbook Robert De Niro 63%
Cinematography Skyfall Roger Deakins 63%
Sound Mixing Life of Pi Ron Bartlett, Doug Hemphill, Drew Kunin 63%
Sound Mixing Lincoln Andy Nelson, Gary Rydstrom, Ron Judkins 63%
Documentary Short Inocente Sean Fine, Andrea Nix 63%
Editing Lincoln Michael Kahn 63%
Sound Editing Argo Erik Aadahl, Ethan Van der Ryn 60%
Score Skyfall Thomas Newman 60%
Song Ted Everybody Needs a Best Friend by Walter Murphy, Seth MacFarlane 60%
Documentary Feature The Gatekeepers Dror Moreh, Philippa Korwarsky, Estelle Fialon 60%
Documentary Short Open Heart Kief Davidson, Cori Shepherd Stern 60%
Animated Feature Wreck-It Ralph Rich Moore 60%
Best Picture Life of Pi Gil Netter, Ang Lee, David Womark 57%
Best Actor Les Misérables Hugh Jackman 57%
Best Actress Amour Emmanuelle Riva 57%
Director Silver Linings Playbook David O. Russell 57%
Foreign Language  Film War Witch Canada 57%
Foreign Language  Film A Royal Affair Denmark 57%
Production Design Anna Karenina Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer 57%
Production Design Life of Pi David Gropman, Anna Pinnock 57%
Cinematography Anna Karenina Seamus McGarvey 57%
Sound Mixing Argo John T. Reitz, Gregg Rudloff, José Antonio García 57%
Documentary Feature Searching for Sugar Man Malik Bendjelloul, Simon Chinn 57%
Documentary Short Redemption Jon Alpert, Matthew O’Neill 57%
Animated Short Fresh Guacamole PES 54%
Animated Short Head Over Heels Timothy Reckart, Fodhla Cronin O’Reilly 54%
Animated Feature ParaNorman Sam Fell, Chris Butler 54%
Original Screenplay Django Unchained Quentin Tarantino 51%
Sound Mixing Skyfall Scott Millan, Greg P. Russell, Stuart Wilson 51%
Score Lincoln John Williams 51%
Editing Life of Pi Tim Squyres 51%
Best Picture Zero Dark Thirty Mark Boal, Kathryn Bigelow, Megan Ellison 51%
Supporting Actor Django Unchained Christoph Waltz 49%
Supporting Actress The Sessions Helen Hunt 49%
Production Design The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey Dan Hennah, Ra Vincent, Simon Bright 49%
Song Life of Pi Pi’s Lullaby by Mychael Danna, Bombay Jayshree 49%
Documentary Short Kings Point Sari Gilman, Jedd Wider 49%
Live Action Short Curfew Shawn Christensen 49%
Best Picture Amour Margaret Ménégoz, Stefan Arndt, Veit Heiduschka, Michael Katz 46%
Supporting Actress Silver Linings Playbook Jacki Weaver 46%
Director Amour Michael Haneke 46%
Director Beasts of the Southern Wild Benh Zeitlin 46%
Foreign Language  Film No Chile 46%
Foreign Language  Film Kon-Tiki Norway 46%
Sound Editing Life of Pi Eugene Gearty, Philip Stockton 46%
Best Actor The Master Joaquin Phoenix 43%
Makeup & Hair Styling Hitchcock Howard Berger, Peter Montagna, Martin Samual 43%
Best Actor Flight Denzel Washington 40%
Supporting Actor The Master Philip Seymour Hoffman 40%
Score Anna Karenina Dario Marianelli 40%
Editing Silver Linings Playbook Jay Cassidy, Crispin Struthers 40%
Best Picture Les Misérables Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, Debra Hayward, Cameron Mackintosh 40%
Best Actress Beasts of the Southern Wild Quvenzhané Wallis 37%
Best Actress The Impossible Naomi Watts 37%
Original Screenplay Flight John Gatins 37%
Documentary Feature 5 Broken Cameras Emad Burnat, Guy Davidi 37%
Animated Short The Simpsons: The Longest Daycare David Silverman 37%
Live Action Short Henry Yan England 37%
Visual Effects Snow White and the Huntsman Cedric Nicolas-Troyan, Phil Brennan, Neil Corbould, Michael Dawson 37%
Supporting Actress The Master Amy Adams 34%
Cinematography Django Unchained Robert Richardson 34%
Sound Editing Django Unchained Wylie Stateman 34%
Visual Effects Prometheus Richard Stammers, Trevor Wood, Charley Henley, Martin Hill 34%
Adapted Screenplay Beasts of the Southern Wild Lucy Alibar, Behn Zeitlin 31%
Song Chasing Ice Before My Time by J. Ralph 31%
Costume Mirror Mirror Eiko Ishioka 31%
Best Picture Beasts of the Southern Wild Dan Janvey, Josh Penn, Michael Gottwald 30%
Costume Snow White and the Huntsman Colleen Atwood 29%
Animated Feature The Pirates! Band of Misfits Peter Lord 29%
Best Picture Django Unchained Stacey Sher, Reginald Hudlin, Pilar Savone 17%

We’ll have to more to say after the winners announced. :) The deadline hasn’t actually been reached for submissions yet, and if we get any more, we’ll update this before the first winner is announced.

* This prediction was revised to correct an error in the submissions after the announcements.

Tentative results: we were 85% on the Big Six, 72% on the Incredibly Difficult Maven Section, and 75% overall.

This post by Bufo Calvin originally appeared in the The Measured Circle blog.

Bufo’s Oscar Prediction Madness 2013

February 16, 2013

Bufo’s Oscar Prediction Madness 2013

For more than twenty years, I’ve been doing an Oscar prediction contest.  If you are interested in playing, comment this post and I’ll send you the spreadsheet and the instructions.  I’ll keep your post private: I will get your e-mail address, but I won’t publish it on the blog.

If you actually played last year, I’ll send you an e-mail as well.

The more people we get, the more accurate we tend to be.  I’ll put out the group’s predictions before the Oscars are announced on February 24th.

Important note: there is no fee to play the real game, and we only play for that most valuable of human possessions…bragging rights. 

As I did last year, I’m going to publicly put out my own predictions before I get any from anybody playing the game. I’m not overly confident in some categories…we’ll see.

Here is a bit more about how it is done, so that my guesses will make more sense to you:

The basic idea is this: try to predict who will win the Oscars!  I’ve given you a list of all the nominees and all the categories.  The way to get the most points is to rank every nominee, with the one you think is LEAST  likely to be picked by the Academy getting a one.  You get the number of points that you assigned to the winner.  If it’s a five-nominee category (like Best Actor), and you assigned five points to the winner, you get those five points!  If you were “oh so close” and assigned it four points, you get that.  If you were totally off, you might have only given it a one.
Note that this year there are nine Best Picture nominees.  The one you think the Academy is most likely to pick gets a 9…and on down from there.
By contrast, there are only three Makeup & Hair Styling nominees, so the most you can get there is three points.
We play for that most prized of all human possessions: braggin’ rights.  :)   We recognize winners in the Big Six category (which is Best Picture, Director, and the acting categories), the Maven category, and Overall.
category Movie Nominee ranking
Best Picture Amour Margaret Ménégoz, Stefan Arndt, Veit Heiduschka, Michael Katz 2
Best Picture Argo Grant Heslov, Ben Affleck, George Clooney 8
Best Picture Beasts of the Southern Wild Dan Janvey, Josh Penn, Michael Gottwald 4
Best Picture Django Unchained Stacey Sher, Reginald Hudlin, Pilar Savone 1
Best Picture Les Misérables Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, Debra Hayward, Cameron Mackintosh 5
Best Picture Life of Pi Gil Netter, Ang Lee, David Womark 3
Best Picture Lincoln Steven Spielberg, Kathleen Kennedy 9
Best Picture Silver Linings Playbook Donna Gigliotti, Bruce Cohen, Jonathan Gordon 7
Best Picture Zero Dark Thirty Mark Boal, Kathryn Bigelow, Megan Ellison 6
Best Actor Silver Linings Playbook Bradley Cooper 3
Best Actor Lincoln Daniel Day-Lewis 5
Best Actor Les Misérables Hugh Jackman 4
Best Actor The Master Joaquin Phoenix 1
Best Actor Flight Denzel Washington 2
Best Actress Zero Dark Thirty Jessica Chastain 4
Best Actress Silver Linings Playbook Jennifer Lawrence 5
Best Actress Amour Emmanuelle Riva 2
Best Actress Beasts of the Southern Wild Quvenzhané Wallis 3
Best Actress The Impossible Naomi Watts 1
Supporting Actor Argo Alan Arkin 4
Supporting Actor Silver Linings Playbook Robert De Niro 1
Supporting Actor The Master Philip Seymour Hoffman 2
Supporting Actor Lincoln Tommy Lee Jones 5
Supporting Actor Django Unchained Christoph Waltz 3
Supporting Actress The Master Amy Adams 1
Supporting Actress Lincoln Sally Field 4
Supporting Actress Les Misérables Anne Hathaway 5
Supporting Actress The Sessions Helen Hunt 2
Supporting Actress Silver Linings Playbook Jacki Weaver 3
Director Amour Michael Haneke 1
Director Life of Pi Ang Lee 3
Director Silver Linings Playbook David O. Russell 4
Director Lincoln Steven Spielberg 5
Director Beasts of the Southern Wild Benh Zeitlin 2
Foreign Language  Film Amour Austria 5
Foreign Language  Film War Witch Canada 3
Foreign Language  Film No Chile 4
Foreign Language  Film A Royal Affair Denmark 1
Foreign Language  Film Kon-Tiki Norway 2
Adapted Screenplay Argo Chris Terrio 2
Adapted Screenplay Beasts of the Southern Wild Lucy Alibar, Behn Zeitlin 1
Adapted Screenplay Life of Pi David Magee 3
Adapted Screenplay Lincoln Tony Kushner 5
Adapted Screenplay Silver Linings Playbook David O. Russell 4
Original Screenplay Amour Michael Haneke 2
Original Screenplay Django Unchained Quentin Tarantino 1
Original Screenplay Flight John Gatins 3
Original Screenplay Moonrise Kingdom Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola 5
Original Screenplay Zero Dark Thirty Mark Boal 4
Production Design Anna Karenina Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer 3
Production Design The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey Dan Hennah, Ra Vincent, Simon Bright 1
Production Design Les Misérables Eve Stewart, Anna-Lynch Robinson 4
Production Design Life of Pi David Gropman, Anna Pinnock 2
Production Design Lincoln Rick Carter, Jim Erickson 5
Cinematography Anna Karenina Seamus McGarvey 2
Cinematography Django Unchained Robert Richardson 1
Cinematography Life of Pi Claudio Miranda 3
Cinematography Lincoln Janusz Kaminski 5
Cinematography Skyfall Roger Deakins 4
Sound Mixing Argo John T. Reitz, Gregg Rudloff, José Antonio García 3
Sound Mixing Les Misérables Andy Nelson, Mark Paterson, Simon Hayes 4
Sound Mixing Life of Pi Ron Bartlett, Doug Hemphill, Drew Kunin 2
Sound Mixing Lincoln Andy Nelson, Gary Rydstrom, Ron Judkins 5
Sound Mixing Skyfall Scott Millan, Greg P. Russell, Stuart Wilson 1
Sound Editing Argo Erik Aadahl, Ethan Van der Ryn 4
Sound Editing Django Unchained Wylie Stateman 1
Sound Editing Life of Pi Eugene Gearty, Philip Stockton 2
Sound Editing Skyfall Per Hallberg, Karen M. Baker 3
Sound Editing Zero Dark Thirty Paul N.J. Ottosson 5
Score Anna Karenina Dario Marianelli 1
Score Argo Alexandre Desplat 3
Score Life of Pi Mychael Danna 4
Score Lincoln John Williams 5
Score Skyfall Thomas Newman 2
Song Chasing Ice Before My Time by J. Ralph 1
Song Les Misérables Suddenly by Alain Boublil, Claude-Michel Schönberg, Herbert Kretzmer 4
Song Life of Pi Pi’s Lullaby by Mychael Danna, Bombay Jayshree 2
Song Skyfall Skyfall by Adele, Paul Epworth 5
Song Ted Everybody Needs a Best Friend by Walter Murphy, Seth MacFarlane 3
Costume Anna Karenina Jacqueline Durran 3
Costume Les Misérables Paco Delgado 4
Costume Lincoln Joanna Johnston 5
Costume Mirror Mirror Eiko Ishioka 1
Costume Snow White and the Huntsman Colleen Atwood 2
Documentary Feature 5 Broken Cameras Emad Burnat, Guy Davidi 1
Documentary Feature The Gatekeepers Dror Moreh, Philippa Korwarsky, Estelle Fialon 4
Documentary Feature How to Survive a Plague David France, Howard Gertler 5
Documentary Feature The Invisible War Kirby Dick, Amy Ziering 2
Documentary Feature Searching for Sugar Man Malik Bendjelloul, Simon Chinn 3
Documentary Short Inocente Sean Fine, Andrea Nix 1
Documentary Short Kings Point Sari Gilman, Jedd Wider 2
Documentary Short Mondays at Racine Cynthia Wade, Robin Honan 4
Documentary Short Open Heart Kief Davidson, Cori Shepherd Stern 3
Documentary Short Redemption Jon Alpert, Matthew O’Neill 5
Editing Argo William Goldenberg 3
Editing Life of Pi Tim Squyres 2
Editing Lincoln Michael Kahn 5
Editing Silver Linings Playbook Jay Cassidy, Crispin Struthers 1
Editing Zero Dark Thirty William Goldenberg, Dylan Tichenor 4
Makeup & Hair Styling Hitchcock Howard Berger, Peter Montagna, Martin Samual 2
Makeup & Hair Styling The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey Peter King, Rick Findlater, Tami Lane 1
Makeup & Hair Styling Les Misérables Lisa Westcott, Julie Dartnell 3
Animated Short Adam and Dog Minkyu Lee 4
Animated Short Fresh Guacamole PES 1
Animated Short Head Over Heels Timothy Reckart, Fodhla Cronin O’Reilly 2
Animated Short Paperman John Kahrs 5
Animated Short The Simpsons: The Longest Daycare David Silverman 3
Live Action Short Asad Bryan Buckley, Mino Jarjoura 5
Live Action Short Buzkashi Boys Sam French, Ariel Nasr 3
Live Action Short Curfew Shawn Christensen 2
Live Action Short Death of a Shadow Tom Van Avermaet, Ellen De Waele 4
Live Action Short Henry Yan England 1
Visual Effects The Avengers Janek Sirrs, Jeff White, Guy Williams, Daniel Sudick 4
Visual Effects The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey Joe Letteri, Eric Saindon, David Clayton, R. Christopher White 3
Visual Effects Life of Pi Bill Westenhofer, Guillaume Rocheron, Erik De Boer, Donald Elliott 5
Visual Effects Prometheus Richard Stammers, Trevor Wood, Charley Henley, Martin Hill 2
Visual Effects Snow White and the Huntsman Cedric Nicolas-Troyan, Phil Brennan, Neil Corbould, Michael Dawson 1
Animated Feature Brave Mark Andrews, Brenda Chapman 5
Animated Feature Frankenweenie Tim Burton 2
Animated Feature ParaNorman Sam Fell, Chris Butler 3
Animated Feature The Pirates! Band of Misfits Peter Lord 1
Animated Feature Wreck-It Ralph Rich Moore 4

There you go!  Now you’ll be able to see later how I did.

Remember, if you’d like to play the traditional Bufo’s Oscar Prediction Madness, and help our group accuracy, just comment this post and let me know, and I’ll send you the entry form.  Group entries are fine.

This post by Bufo Calvin originally appeared in the The Measured Circle blog.

2012 BOPMadness Oscar Group Predictions (live updates with winners)

February 26, 2012

2012 BOPMadness Oscar Predictions (live updates with winners)

This is being published before the start of the 2011 Oscar broadcast. We are updating it as each winner is announced.

It’s based on aggregate analysis of the ballots submitted in the 2012 BOPMadness (Bufo’s Oscar Prediction Madness) contest.

Thanks to everyone who played! I’ll give individual results to the winners in the next few days. We announce a winner in the Big Six (the acting categories, director, and picture), the incredibly difficult Maven section (everything else), and overall.

First, to keep it simple, here are our predictions:

  • Picture: The Artist Winner: The Artist
  • Actor: The Artist (Jean Dujardin)
  • Actress: The Help (Viola Davis) Winner: Iron Lady (Meryl Streep)
  • Supporting Actor: Beginners (Christopher Plummer) Winner: Christopher Plummer
  • Supporting Actress: The Help (Octavia Spencer) Winner: The Help
  • Director: Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist)
  • Foreign Language Film (Asghar Farhadi: Iran) Winner: Iran
  • Adapted Screenplay: The Descendants Winner: The Descendants
  • Original Screenplay: Midnight in Paris Winner: Midnight in Paris
  • Art Direction: Hugo Winner: Hugo
  • Cinematography: The Artist Winner: Hugo
  • Sound Mixing: Hugo Winner: Hugo
  • Sound Editing: War Horse Winner: Hugo
  • Score: The Artist Winner: The Artist
  • Song: The Muppets (Man or Muppet) The Winner: The Muppets
  • Costume: Hugo Winner: The Artist
  • Documentary Feature: Hell and Back Again Winner: Undefeated
  • Documentary Short: The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom Winner: Saving Face
  • Editing: The Artist Winner: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
  • Makeup: The Iron Lady Winner: The Iron Lady
  • Animated Short: The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore Winner: The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore
  • Live Action Short: The Shore Winner: The Shore
  • Visual Effects: Hugo Winner: Hugo
  • Animated Feature: Rango Winner: Rango

Now, here are our group pictures ranked in order of what we think is most probable (Supporting Actress for The Help for Octavia Spencer, Director for the Artist for Michel Hazanavicius) to the least (Costume for W.E.):

category Movie Nominee Probability
Supporting Actress The Help Octavia Spencer 97%
Director The Artist Michel Hazanavicius 97%
Art Direction Hugo Dante Ferretti, Francesca Lo Schiavo 91%
Best Actor The Artist Jean Dujardin 90%
Best Actress The Help Viola Davis 90%
Foreign Language  Film A Separation Asghar Farhadi: Iran 90%
Visual Effects Hugo Robert Legato, Joss Williams, Ben Grossmann, Alex Henning 90%
Best Picture The Artist Thomas Langmann 87%
Supporting Actor Beginners Christopher Plummer 86%
Live Action Short The Shore Terry George, Oorlagh George 86%
Best Actress The Iron Lady Meryl Streep 83%
Adapted Screenplay The Descendants Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon, Jim Rash 83%
Cinematography The Artist Guillaume Schiffman 83%
Score The Artist Ludovic Bource 83%
Costume Hugo Sandy Powell 83%
Editing The Artist Anne-Sophie Bion, Michel Hazanavicius 83%
Best Picture The Help Brunson Green, Chris Columbus, Michael Barnathan 83%
Best Picture The Descendants Jim Burke, Alexander Payne, Jim Taylor 81%
Best Actor The Descendants George Clooney 80%
Original Screenplay Midnight in Paris Woody Allen 80%
Sound Mixing Hugo Tom Fleischman, John Midgley 80%
Costume The Artist Mark Bridges 80%
Documentary Short The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom Lucy Walker, Kira Carstensen 80%
Song Rio (Real in Rio) Sergio Mendes, Carlinhos Brown, Siedah Garrett 79%
Sound Editing War Horse Richard Hymns, Gary Rydstrom 77%
Costume Jane Eyre Michael O’Connor 77%
Director Hugo Martin Scorsese 77%
Score Hugo Howard Shore 77%
Editing Hugo Thelma Schoonmaker 77%
Animated Short The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore William Joyce, Brandon Oldenburg 77%
Visual Effects Rise of the Planet of the Apes Joe Letteri, Dan Lemmon, R. Christopher White, Daniel Barrett 77%
Makeup The Iron Lady Mark Coulier, J. Roy Helland 76%
Song The Muppets (Man or Muppet) Bret McKenzie 75%
Original Screenplay The Artist Michel Hazanavicius 74%
Art Direction The Artist Laurence Bennett, Robert Gould 73%
Sound Mixing War Horse Gary Rydstrom, Andy Nelson, Tom Johnson, Stuart Wilson 73%
Documentary Short Incident in New Baghdad James Spione 73%
Animated Feature Rango Gore Verbinski 73%
Makeup Albert Nobbs Martial Corneville, Lynn Johnson, Matthew W. Mungle 72%
Score War Horse John Williams 71%
Foreign Language  Film Footnote Joseph Cedar: Israel 70%
Adapted Screenplay Moneyball Steven Zaillian, Aaron Sorkin, Stan Chervin 69%
Cinematography War Horse Janusz Kaminski 69%
Sound Mixing The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo David Parker, Michael Semanick, Ren Klyce, Bo Persson 69%
Animated Feature Puss in Boots Chris Miller 69%
Supporting Actor Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close Max Von Sydow 67%
Adapted Screenplay Hugo John Logan 67%
Sound Editing The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo Ren Klyce 67%
Documentary Feature Hell and Back Again Danfung Dennis, Mike Lerner 67%
Animated Short La Luna Enrico Casarosa 67%
Animated Short Wild Life Amanda Forbis, Wendy Tilby 67%
Foreign Language  Film In Darkness Agnieszka Holland: Poland 66%
Documentary Feature Undefeated Daniel Lindsay, T.J. Martin, Rich Middlemas 66%
Best Actor Moneyball Brad Pitt 63%
Best Actress My Week with Marilyn Michelle Williams 63%
Supporting Actress The Help Jessica Chastain 63%
Original Screenplay Bridesmaids Kristen Wiig, Annie Mumolo 63%
Cinematography Hugo Robert Richardson 63%
Documentary Feature If a Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front Marshall Curry, Sam Cullman 63%
Documentary Feature Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory Joe Berlinger, Bruce Sinofsky 63%
Documentary Short Saving Face Daniel Junge, Sharmeen Obaid-Chinoy 63%
Visual Effects Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2 Tim Burke, David Vickery, Greg Butler, John Richardson 63%
Best Picture Hugo Graham King, Martin Scorsese 61%
Supporting Actor My Week with Marilyn Kenneth Branagh 60%
Supporting Actress Bridesmaids Melissa McCarthy 60%
Animated Short A Morning Stroll Grant Orchard, Sue Goffe 60%
Live Action Short Raju Max Zähle, Stefan Giere 60%
Animated Feature Kung Fu Panda 2 Jennifer Yuh 60%
Director The Descendants Alexander Payne 57%
Art Direction Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2 Stuart Craig, Stephenie McMillan 57%
Sound Editing Hugo Philip Stockton, Eugene Gearty 57%
Live Action Short Time Freak Andrew Bowler, Gigi Cause 57%
Animated Feature Chico & Rita Fernando Trueba, Javier Mariscal 57%
Makeup Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2 Nick Dudman, Amanda Knight, Lisa Tomblin 56%
Supporting Actor Moneyball Jonah Hill 53%
Supporting Actress The Artist Bérénice Bejo 53%
Sound Mixing Transformers: Dark of the Moon Greg P. Russell, Gary Summers, Jeffrey J. Haboush, Peter J. Devlin 53%
Sound Editing Drive Lon Bender, Victor Ray Ennis 53%
Documentary Short God Is the Bigger Elvis Rebecca Cammisa, Julie Anderson 53%
Live Action Short Tuba Atlantic Hallvar Witzø 53%
Editing The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo Angus Wall, Kirk Baxter 51%
Director Midnight in Paris Woody Allen 50%
Cinematography The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo Jeff Cronenweth 50%
Sound Editing Transformers: Dark of the Moon Ethan Van der Ryn, Erik Aadahl 50%
Editing Moneyball Christopher Tellefsen 50%
Visual Effects Transformers: Dark of the Moon Scott Farrar, Scott Benza, Matthew E. Butler, John Frazier 49%
Adapted Screenplay Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy Bridget O’Connor, Peter Straughan 47%
Original Screenplay A Separation Asghar Farhadi 47%
Documentary Feature Pina Wim Wenders, Gian-Piero Ringel 47%
Editing The Descendants Kevin Tent 47%
Live Action Short Pentecost Peter MacDonald 47%
Animated Feature A Cat in Paris Alain Gagnol, Jean-Loup Felicioli 47%
Best Picture War Horse Steven Spielberg, Kathleen Kennedy 46%
Best Actress Albert Nobbs Glenn Close 46%
Best Actor Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy Gary Oldman 43%
Foreign Language  Film Monsieur Lazhar Philippe Falardeau: Canada 43%
Score Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy Alberto Iglesias 43%
Best Picture Midnight in Paris Letty Aronson, Stephen Tenenbaum 41%
Adapted Screenplay The Ides of March George Clooney, Grant Heslov, Beau  Willimon 40%
Original Screenplay Margin Call J.C. Chandor 40%
Art Direction Midnight in Paris Anne Seibel, Hélène Dubreuil 40%
Art Direction War Horse Rick Carter, Lee Sandales 40%
Cinematography The Tree of Life Emmanuel Lubezki 40%
Costume Anonymous Lisy Christi 40%
Best Picture The Tree of Life Nominees to be determined 39%
Supporting Actor Warrior Nick Nolte 37%
Director The Tree of Life Terrence Malick 37%
Foreign Language  Film Bullhead Michae R. Roskam: Belgium 37%
Animated Short Dimanche Patrick Doyon 37%
Best Picture Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close Scott Rudin 33%
Documentary Short The Barber of Birmingham: Foot Soldier of the Civil Rights Mvmt Robin Fryday, Gail Dolgin 33%
Best Picture Moneyball Michael De Luca, Rachael Horovitz, Brad Pitt 31%
Sound Mixing Moneyball Deb Adair, Ron Bochar, David Giammarco, Ed Novick 30%
Score The Adventures of Tintin John Williams 30%
Visual Effects Real Steel Erik Nash, John Rosengrant, Danny Gordon Taylor, Swen Gillberg 30%
Best Actor A Better Life Demián Bichir 27%
Best Actress The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo Roomey Mara 27%
Supporting Actress Albert Nobbs Janet McTeer 27%
Costume W.E. Arianne Phillips 23%

We’ll revisit this after the broadcast to see how we did.

To see my own predictions, see this earlier post

See you in the movies!

This post by Bufo Calvin originally appeared in the The Measured Circle blog.


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