Archive for the ‘BOPMadness’ Category

BOPMadness (Bufo’s Oscar Prediction Madness) 2019 results: the group scored 83% overall, our overall winner was 97%

February 15, 2020

BOPMadness (Bufo’s Oscar Prediction Madness) 2019 results: the group scored 83% overall, our overall winner was 97%

Thanks to everyone who played! BOPMadness is now decades in the running, and this was a good year!

I personally underestimated the recognition of Parasite by the Academy, and that did surprise our group overall. Ford v Ferrari also did better than we (or I…not my best year) expected. That said, as a group, we only missed one and a half Big Six (acting/directing/Best Picture) category, Best Picture. We went with 1917, with Parasite our second choice. Why the half? We were tied on 1917 or Parasite for directing.

On The Incredibly Difficult Maven Section (everything else), we missed on the following:

  • Original Screenplay (we picked Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, then Marriage Story, with the winner Parasite 3rd)
  • Film Editing (we picked Parasite; the winner was Ford v Ferrari, which we had 2nd)
  • Song (we picked Stand Up from Harriet; the winner was I’m Gonna Love Me Again from Rocketman, which we had 2nd)
  • Sound Editing (we picked 1917; the winner was Ford v Ferrari, which we had 2nd…interesting that the two sound awards split)
  • Documentary Feature (we picked For Sama; we had the winner, American Factory, 3rd)

That was it! We predicted every other category!

As to our individual winners, congratulations to the following!

  • The Big Six winner was DBibby with 97% (picked Bong Joon-Ho 2nd for directing), The group was 88%.
  • The Maven winner was George Monkey Experience with 98% (only missed Live Action Short & Sound editing, but had the winners 2nd). The group was 81%
  • And the Overall winner was…George Monkey Experience! They scored 97% overall, missing on only three categories (with the winners being their second choices). They win that most valuable of all human possessions: braggin’ rights! The group was 83%.

I plan to e-mail their individual results to everybody this 3-day weekend.

I do want to mention that I was pretty much liveposting our results during the ceremony, but I don’t see that it actually published. ūüė¶

Thanks again to the players! Hope you all play again next year, and if you didn’t play this time, I hope you will, too!

See you in the movies!

Join thousands of readers and try the free The Measured Circle magazine at Flipboard!

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Bufo’s Alexa Skills

This post by Bufo Calvin originally appeared in the The Measured Circle blog. To support this or other organizations, begin your Amazon shopping from a link on their sites: Amazon.com (Smile.Amazon.com)

2019 BOPMadness (Bufo’s Oscar Prediction Madness) predictions

February 9, 2020

2019 BOPMadness (Bufo’s Oscar Prediction Madness) predictions

Thanks to everybody who has made predictions in this year’s BOPMadness (Bufo’s Oscar Prediction Madness)!

Here are our predictions, first by category, with nominees within the category ranked in order:

The Big Six

Best Picture

Nominee %Chance
Best Picture [1917 (Sam Mendes, Pippa Harris, Jayne-Ann Tenggren, Callum McDougall…)] 86.67
Best Picture [Parasite (Bong Joon Ho, Kwak Sin Ae)] 73.33
Best Picture [Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Quentin Tarantino, David Heyman, Shannon McIntosh] 64.44
Best Picture [The Irishman (Robert De Niro, Martin Scorsese, Jane Rosenthal, Emma Tillinger Koskoff)] 60.00
Best Picture [Joker (Bradley Cooper, Todd Phillips, Emma Tillinger Koskoff)] 60.00
Best Picture [Jojo Rabbit (Taika Waititi, Carthew Neal, Chelsea Winstanley)] 44.44
Best Picture [Little Women (Amy Pascal)] 42.22
Best Picture [Marriage Story (Noah Baumbach, David Heyman)] 42.22
Best Picture [Ford vs. Ferrari (James Mangold, Peter Chermin, Jenno Topping)] 26.67

Lead Actress

Lead Actress [Renee Zellweger in Judy] 96.00
Lead Actress [Scarlett Johansson in Marriage Story] 72.00
Lead Actress [Charlize Theron in Bombshell] 52.00
Lead Actress [Cynthia Erivo in Harriet] 44.00
Lead Actress [Saoirse Ronan in Little Women] 36.00

Lead Actor

Lead Actor [Joaquin Phoenix in Joker] 100.00
Lead Actor [Adam Driver in Marriage Story] 68.00
Lead Actor [Antonio Banderas in Pain and Glory] 52.00
Lead Actor [Leonardo DiCaprio in Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood] 52.00
Lead Actor [Jonathan Pryce in The Two Popes] 28.00

Supporting Actor

Lead Actor [Joaquin Phoenix in Joker] 100.00
Lead Actor [Adam Driver in Marriage Story] 68.00
Lead Actor [Antonio Banderas in Pain and Glory] 52.00
Lead Actor [Leonardo DiCaprio in Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood] 52.00
Lead Actor [Jonathan Pryce in The Two Popes] 28.00

Supporting Actress

Supporting Actress [Laura Dern in Marriage Story] 92.00
Supporting Actress [Scarlett Johansson in JoJo Rabbit] 68.00
Supporting Actress [Margot Robbie in Bombshell] 60.00
Supporting Actress [Florence Pugh in Little Women] 44.00
Supporting Actress [Kathy Bates in Richard Jewell] 36.00

Directing

Directing [1917 (Sam Mendes)] 80.00
Directing [Parasite (Bong Jong Ho)] 80.00
Directing [Once Upon a Time…In Hollywood (Quentin Tarantino)] 64.00
Directing [The Irishman (Martin Scorsese)] 44.00
Directing [Joker (Todd Phillips)] 32.00

 


The Incredibly Difficult Maven Section

Original Screenplay

Original Screenplay [Once Upon a Time…In Hollywood (Quentin Tarantino)] 76.00
Original Screenplay [Marriage Story (Noah Baumbach)] 72.00
Original Screenplay [Parasite (Bong Joon Ho, Han Jin Won)] 64.00
Original Screenplay [1917 (Sam Mendes, Krysty Wilson-Cairns)] 60.00
Original Screenplay [Knives Out (Rian Johnson)] 28.00

Adapted Screenplay

Adapted Screenplay [JoJo Rabbit (Taika Waititi)] 76.00
Adapted Screenplay [Joker (Todd Phillips, Scott Silver)] 68.00
Adapted Screenplay [Little Women (Greta Gerwig)] 64.00
Adapted Screenplay [The Two Popes (Anthony McCarten)] 48.00
Adapted Screenplay [The Irishman (Steven Zaillian)] 44.00

Cinematography

Cinematography [1917 (Roger Deakins)] 100.00
Cinematography [Once Upon a Time…In Hollywood (Robert Richardson)] 60.00
Cinematography [The Irishman (Rodrigo Prieto)] 52.00
Cinematography [Joker (Lawrence Sher)] 48.00
Cinematography [The Lighthouse (Jarin Blaschke)] 40.00

Film Editing

Film Editing [Parasite (Yang Jinmo)] 80.00
Film Editing [Ford v Ferrari (MIchael McCusker, Andrew Buckland)] 68.00%
Film Editing [Joker (Jeff Groth)] 64.00%
Film Editing [The Irishman (Thelma Schoonmaker)] 48.00%
Film Editing [JoJo Rabbit (Tom Eagles)] 40.00%

Production Design

Production Design [Once Upon a Time…In Hollywood (Barbara Ling, Nancy Haigh)] 88.00%
Production Design [Parasite (Lee Ha Jun, Cho Won Woo)] 72.00%
Production Design [1917 (Dennis Gassner, Lee Sandales)] 68.00%
Production Design [The Irishman (Bob Shaw, Regina Graves)] 36.00%
Production Design [JoJo Rabbit (Ra Vincent, Nora Sopkova)] 36.00%

Costume

Costume [Little Women (Jacqueline Durran)] 100.00%
Costume [Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood (Arianne Phillips)] 76.00%
Costume [JoJo Rabbit (Mayes C Rubeo)] 48.00%
Costume [Joker (Mark Bridges)] 44.00%
Costume [The Irishman (Sandy Powell, Christopher Peterson)] 32.00%

Makeup and Hairstyling

Makeup and Hairstyling [Bombshell (Kazu Hiro, Anne Morgan, Vivian Baker)] 80.00%
Makeup and Hairstyling [Judy (Jeremy Woodhead)] 72.00%
Makeup and Hairstyling [Joker (Nicki Ledermann, Kay Georgiou)] 68.00%
Makeup and Hairstyling [1917 (Naomi Donne, Tristan Versluis, Rebecca Cole)] 52.00%
Makeup and Hairstyling [Maleficent: Mistress of Evil (Paul Gooch, Argen Tuiten, David White)] 28.00%

Score

Score [Joker (Hildur Guonadottir)] 88.00%
Score [1917 (Thomas Newman)] 60.00%
Score [Little Women (Alexandre Desplat)] 56.00%
Score [Marriage Story (Randy Newman)] 52.00%
Score [Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (John Williams)] 44.00%

Song

Song [Stand Up from Harriet (Joshua Brian Campbell, Cynthia Erivo)] 92.00%
Song [(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again from Rocketman (Elton John, Bernie Taupin)] 68.00%
Song [I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away from Toy Story 4 (Randy Newman)] 52.00%
Song [I’m Standing With You from Breakthrough (Diane Warren)] 52.00%
Song [Into the Unknown from Frozen II (Kristen Anderson-Lopez, Robert Lopez)] 36.00%

Sound Mixing

Sound Mixing [1917 (Mark Taylor, Stuart Wilson)] 92.00%
Sound Mixing [Ford v Ferrarri (Paul Massey, David Giammarco, Steven A. Morrow)] 68.00%
Sound Mixing [Joker (Tom Ozanich, Dean Zupancic, Tod Maitland)] 60.00%
Sound Mixing [Once Upon a Time…In Hollywood (Michael Minkler, Christian P. Minler, Mark Ulano)] 60.00%
Sound Mixing [Ad Astra (Gary Rydstron, Tom Johnson, Mark Ulano)] 20.00%

Sound Editing

Sound Editing [1917 (Oliver Tarney, Rachael Tate)] 92.00%
Sound Editing [Ford v Ferrari (Daniel Sylvester)] 72.00%
Sound Editing [Joker (Alan Robert Murray)] 64.00%
Sound Editing [Once Upon a Time…In Hollywood (Wylie Stateman)] 48.00%
Sound Editing [Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (Matthew Wood, David Acord)] 24.00%

Visual Effects

Visual Effects [1917 (Guillaume Rocheron, Greg Butler, Dominic Tuohy)] 84.00%
Visual Effects [The Irishman (Pablo Helman, Leandro Estebecorena, Nelson Sepulveda-Fauser, Stephane Grabli)] 60.00%
Visual Effects [The Lion King (Robert Legato, Adam Valdez, Andrew R. Jones, Elliot Newman)] 60.00%
Visual Effects [Avengers: Endgame (Dan DeLeeuw, Russell Earl, Matt Aitken, Dan Sudick)] 52.00%
Visual Effects [Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (Roger Guyett, Neal Scanlan, Patrick Tubach, Dominic Tuohy)] 44.00%

Documentary Feature

Documentary Feature [For Sama (Waad al-Kateab, Edward Watts)] 68.00%
Documentary Feature [Honeyland (Ljubo Stefanov, Tamara Kotevsa, Atanas Georgiev)] 64.00%
Documentary Feature [American Factory (Steven Bognar, Julia Reichert, Jeff Reichert)] 60.00%
Documentary Feature [The Edge of Democracy (Petra Costa, Joanna Natasegara, Shane Boris, Tiago Pavan)] 56.00%
Documentary Feature [The Cave (Feras Fayyad, Kristine Barfod, Sigrid Dyekjaer)] 52.00%

Documentary Short

Documentary Short [Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You’re a Girl) (Carol Dysinger, Elena Andreicheva)] 76.00%
Documentary Short [Walk Run Cha-Cha (Laura Nix, Colette Sandstedt)] 64.00%
Documentary Short [St. Louis Superman (Smriti Mundhra, Sami Khan)] 60.00%
Documentary Short [In the Absence (Yi Seung-Jun, Bary Byung-Seok Kam)] 52.00%
Documentary Short [Life Overtakes Me (John Haptas, Kristine Samuelson)] 48.00%

Animated Feature

Animated Feature [Toy Story 4 (Josh Cooley, Mark Nielsen, Jonas Rivera)] 84.00%
Animated Feature [Klaus (Sergio Pablos, Jinko Gotoh, Marisa Roman)] 72.00%
Animated Feature [Missing Link (Chris Butler, Arianne Sutner, Travis Knight)] 72.00%
Animated Feature [I Lost My Body (Jeremy Clapin, Marc du Pontavice)] 52.00%
Animated Feature [How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (Dean DeBlois, Bradford Lewis, Bonnie Arnold)] 20.00%

Animated Short

Animated Short [Hair Love (Matthew A. Cherry, Karen Rupert Toliver)] 84.00%
Animated Short [Kitbull (Rosana Sullivan, Kathryn Hendrickson)] 68.00%
Animated Short [Memorable (Bruno Collet, Jean-Francois Le Corre)] 64.00%
Animated Short [Sister (Siqi Song)] 48.00%
Animated Short [Dcera (Daughter) (Daria Kashcheeva)] 36.00%

Foreign Language Film

Foreign Language Film [Parasite (South Korea/Bong Joon Ho)] 100.00%
Foreign Language Film [Pain and Glory (Spain/Pedro Almodovar)] 68.00%
Foreign Language Film [Honeyland (North Macedonia/Ljubo Stafanov, Tamara Kotevska)] 56.00%
Foreign Language Film [Les Miserables (France/Ladj Ly)] 44.00%
Foreign Language Film [Corpus Christi (Poland/Jim Komasa)] 32.00%

 


 

Now, here are the predictions across all categories, ranked by probable success, so you can see what we consider the surest bets and the longest shots:

Nominee %Chance
Lead Actor [Joaquin Phoenix in Joker] 100%
Cinematography [1917 (Roger Deakins)] 100%
Costume [Little Women (Jacqueline Durran)] 100%
Foreign Language Film [Parasite (South Korea/Bong Joon Ho)] 100%
Lead Actress [Renee Zellweger in Judy] 96%
Supporting Actress [Laura Dern in Marriage Story] 92%
Song [Stand Up from Harriet (Joshua Brian Campbell, Cynthia Erivo)] 92%
Sound Mixing [1917 (Mark Taylor, Stuart Wilson)] 92%
Sound Editing [1917 (Oliver Tarney, Rachael Tate)] 92%
Production Design [Once Upon a Time…In Hollywood (Barbara Ling, Nancy Haigh)] 88%
Score [Joker (Hildur Guonadottir)] 88%
Best Picture [1917 (Sam Mendes, Pippa Harris, Jayne-Ann Tenggren, Callum McDougall…)] 87%
Visual Effects [1917 (Guillaume Rocheron, Greg Butler, Dominic Tuohy)] 84%
Animated Feature [Toy Story 4 (Josh Cooley, Mark Nielsen, Jonas Rivera)] 84%
Animated Short [Hair Love (Matthew A. Cherry, Karen Rupert Toliver)] 84%
Directing [1917 (Sam Mendes)] 80%
Directing [Parasite (Bong Jong Ho)] 80%
Film Editing [Parasite (Yang Jinmo)] 80%
Makeup and Hairstyling [Bombshell (Kazu Hiro, Anne Morgan, Vivian Baker)] 80%
Original Screenplay [Once Upon a Time…In Hollywood (Quentin Tarantino)] 76%
Adapted Screenplay [JoJo Rabbit (Taika Waititi)] 76%
Costume [Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood (Arianne Phillips)] 76%
Documentary Short [Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You’re a Girl) (Carol Dysinger, Elena Andreicheva)] 76%
Live Action Short [The Neighbors’ Window (Marshall Curry)] 76%
Best Picture [Parasite (Bong Joon Ho, Kwak Sin Ae)] 73%
Lead Actress [Scarlett Johansson in Marriage Story] 72%
Original Screenplay [Marriage Story (Noah Baumbach)] 72%
Production Design [Parasite (Lee Ha Jun, Cho Won Woo)] 72%
Makeup and Hairstyling [Judy (Jeremy Woodhead)] 72%
Sound Editing [Ford v Ferrari (Daniel Sylvester)] 72%
Animated Feature [Klaus (Sergio Pablos, Jinko Gotoh, Marisa Roman)] 72%
Animated Feature [Missing Link (Chris Butler, Arianne Sutner, Travis Knight)] 72%
Lead Actor [Adam Driver in Marriage Story] 68%
Supporting Actress [Scarlett Johansson in JoJo Rabbit] 68%
Adapted Screenplay [Joker (Todd Phillips, Scott Silver)] 68%
Film Editing [Ford v Ferrari (MIchael McCusker, Andrew Buckland)] 68%
Production Design [1917 (Dennis Gassner, Lee Sandales)] 68%
Makeup and Hairstyling [Joker (Nicki Ledermann, Kay Georgiou)] 68%
Song [(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again from Rocketman (Elton John, Bernie Taupin)] 68%
Sound Mixing [Ford v Ferrarri (Paul Massey, David Giammarco, Steven A. Morrow)] 68%
Documentary Feature [For Sama (Waad al-Kateab, Edward Watts)] 68%
Animated Short [Kitbull (Rosana Sullivan, Kathryn Hendrickson)] 68%
Foreign Language Film [Pain and Glory (Spain/Pedro Almodovar)] 68%
Best Picture [Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Quentin Tarantino, David Heyman, Shannon McIntosh] 64%
Directing [Once Upon a Time…In Hollywood (Quentin Tarantino)] 64%
Original Screenplay [Parasite (Bong Joon Ho, Han Jin Won)] 64%
Adapted Screenplay [Little Women (Greta Gerwig)] 64%
Film Editing [Joker (Jeff Groth)] 64%
Sound Editing [Joker (Alan Robert Murray)] 64%
Documentary Feature [Honeyland (Ljubo Stefanov, Tamara Kotevsa, Atanas Georgiev)] 64%
Documentary Short [Walk Run Cha-Cha (Laura Nix, Colette Sandstedt)] 64%
Animated Short [Memorable (Bruno Collet, Jean-Francois Le Corre)] 64%
Live Action Short [Brotherhood (Meryam Joobeur, Maria Gracia Turgeon)] 64%
Best Picture [The Irishman (Robert De Niro, Martin Scorsese, Jane Rosenthal, Emma Tillinger Koskoff)] 60%
Best Picture [Joker (Bradley Cooper, Todd Phillips, Emma Tillinger Koskoff)] 60%
Supporting Actress [Margot Robbie in Bombshell] 60%
Original Screenplay [1917 (Sam Mendes, Krysty Wilson-Cairns)] 60%
Cinematography [Once Upon a Time…In Hollywood (Robert Richardson)] 60%
Score [1917 (Thomas Newman)] 60%
Sound Mixing [Joker (Tom Ozanich, Dean Zupancic, Tod Maitland)] 60%
Sound Mixing [Once Upon a Time…In Hollywood (Michael Minkler, Christian P. Minler, Mark Ulano)] 60%
Visual Effects [The Irishman (Pablo Helman, Leandro Estebecorena, Nelson Sepulveda-Fauser, Stephane Grabli)] 60%
Visual Effects [The Lion King (Robert Legato, Adam Valdez, Andrew R. Jones, Elliot Newman)] 60%
Documentary Feature [American Factory (Steven Bognar, Julia Reichert, Jeff Reichert)] 60%
Documentary Short [St. Louis Superman (Smriti Mundhra, Sami Khan)] 60%
Live Action Short [Nefta Football Club (Yves Piat, Damien Megherbi)] 60%
Score [Little Women (Alexandre Desplat)] 56%
Documentary Feature [The Edge of Democracy (Petra Costa, Joanna Natasegara, Shane Boris, Tiago Pavan)] 56%
Live Action Short [Saria (Bryan Buckley, Matt Lefebvre)] 56%
Foreign Language Film [Honeyland (North Macedonia/Ljubo Stafanov, Tamara Kotevska)] 56%
Lead Actress [Charlize Theron in Bombshell] 52%
Lead Actor [Antonio Banderas in Pain and Glory] 52%
Lead Actor [Leonardo DiCaprio in Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood] 52%
Cinematography [The Irishman (Rodrigo Prieto)] 52%
Makeup and Hairstyling [1917 (Naomi Donne, Tristan Versluis, Rebecca Cole)] 52%
Score [Marriage Story (Randy Newman)] 52%
Song [I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away from Toy Story 4 (Randy Newman)] 52%
Song [I’m Standing With You from Breakthrough (Diane Warren)] 52%
Visual Effects [Avengers: Endgame (Dan DeLeeuw, Russell Earl, Matt Aitken, Dan Sudick)] 52%
Documentary Feature [The Cave (Feras Fayyad, Kristine Barfod, Sigrid Dyekjaer)] 52%
Documentary Short [In the Absence (Yi Seung-Jun, Bary Byung-Seok Kam)] 52%
Animated Feature [I Lost My Body (Jeremy Clapin, Marc du Pontavice)] 52%
Adapted Screenplay [The Two Popes (Anthony McCarten)] 48%
Cinematography [Joker (Lawrence Sher)] 48%
Film Editing [The Irishman (Thelma Schoonmaker)] 48%
Costume [JoJo Rabbit (Mayes C Rubeo)] 48%
Sound Editing [Once Upon a Time…In Hollywood (Wylie Stateman)] 48%
Documentary Short [Life Overtakes Me (John Haptas, Kristine Samuelson)] 48%
Animated Short [Sister (Siqi Song)] 48%
Best Picture [Jojo Rabbit (Taika Waititi, Carthew Neal, Chelsea Winstanley)] 44%
Lead Actress [Cynthia Erivo in Harriet] 44%
Supporting Actress [Florence Pugh in Little Women] 44%
Directing [The Irishman (Martin Scorsese)] 44%
Adapted Screenplay [The Irishman (Steven Zaillian)] 44%
Costume [Joker (Mark Bridges)] 44%
Score [Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (John Williams)] 44%
Visual Effects [Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (Roger Guyett, Neal Scanlan, Patrick Tubach, Dominic Tuohy)] 44%
Live Action Short [A Sister (Delphine Girard)] 44%
Foreign Language Film [Les Miserables (France/Ladj Ly)] 44%
Best Picture [Little Women (Amy Pascal)] 42%
Best Picture [Marriage Story (Noah Baumbach, David Heyman)] 42%
Cinematography [The Lighthouse (Jarin Blaschke)] 40%
Film Editing [JoJo Rabbit (Tom Eagles)] 40%
Lead Actress [Saoirse Ronan in Little Women] 36%
Supporting Actress [Kathy Bates in Richard Jewell] 36%
Production Design [The Irishman (Bob Shaw, Regina Graves)] 36%
Production Design [JoJo Rabbit (Ra Vincent, Nora Sopkova)] 36%
Song [Into the Unknown from Frozen II (Kristen Anderson-Lopez, Robert Lopez)] 36%
Animated Short [Dcera (Daughter) (Daria Kashcheeva)] 36%
Directing [Joker (Todd Phillips)] 32%
Costume [The Irishman (Sandy Powell, Christopher Peterson)] 32%
Foreign Language Film [Corpus Christi (Poland/Jim Komasa)] 32%
Lead Actor [Jonathan Pryce in The Two Popes] 28%
Original Screenplay [Knives Out (Rian Johnson)] 28%
Makeup and Hairstyling [Maleficent: Mistress of Evil (Paul Gooch, Argen Tuiten, David White)] 28%
Best Picture [Ford vs. Ferrari (James Mangold, Peter Chermin, Jenno Topping)] 27%
Sound Editing [Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (Matthew Wood, David Acord)] 24%
Sound Mixing [Ad Astra (Gary Rydstron, Tom Johnson, Mark Ulano)] 20%
Animated Feature [How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (Dean DeBlois, Bradford Lewis, Bonnie Arnold)] 20%

 


There you go! The ceremony is scheduled for 5:00 PM Pacific today, Sunday, 9 February! I’ll report how we to do, and the winners for The Big Six, The Incredibly Difficult Maven Section, and Overall. Thanks again to everyone who is playing this year!

See you in the movies!


 

Join thousands of readers and try the free The Measured Circle magazine at Flipboard!

All aboard our The Measured Circle’s Geek Time Trip at The History Project (AKA Enwoven)! Join the TMCGTT Timeblazers!

Bufo’s Alexa Skills

This post by Bufo Calvin originally appeared in the The Measured Circle blog. To support this or other organizations, begin your Amazon shopping from a link on their sites: Amazon.com (Smile.Amazon.com)

The Oscars are next Sunday! Help us predict the winners

February 1, 2020

The Oscars are next Sunday! Help us predict the winners

For decades, I’ve done an Oscar prediction contest, BOPMadness (Bufo’s Oscar Prediction Madness).

We tend to be pretty accurate, predicting most of the categories.

Why is that?

It’s the wisdom of crowds, and the method I use for people to make their predictions.

You can still make your predictions, and the more people who do so, the better I think we’ll do. Use this form:

https://forms.gle/TANNaLckU4nhniWw5

It should just take you a couple of minutes: you rank every nominee in every category.

You have until noon Pacific time on Sunday, 9 February to complete it. I’ll close the voting then.

That will give me time to put out our predictions before the ceremony.

In case you are wondering, I make my own predictions before I receive anybody else’s, so I’m not unfairly influenced. I also don’t make our predictions publicly available until I close the voting.

While so far, I’ve talked about the group value, individuals certainly do compete as well. We announce winners in The Big Six (the acting categories, Best Picture, and Director), the Incredibly Difficult Maven Section (everything else), and Overall (combining the two). We play for that most valuable of human possessions…Bragging Rights. ūüėČ

You also have the option to have your guesses e-mailed to you, so you can play along.

I’d love it if you play, but even if you don’t, you can see our predictions in this blog on Sunday.

See you in the movies!

Join thousands of readers and try the free The Measured Circle magazine at Flipboard!

All aboard our The Measured Circle’s Geek Time Trip at The History Project (AKA Enwoven)! Join the TMCGTT Timeblazers!

This post by Bufo Calvin originally appeared in the The Measured Circle blog. 

 

Oscar reactions and BOPMadness results 2019

February 27, 2019

Oscar reactions and BOPMadness results 2019

AWARDS SPOILER ALERT (although I figure with something like the Oscars, a day gives you enough time to have watched them without spoilers, if you wanted to do that)

Well, this was certainly a different Oscar year…both in the results and in the broadcast!

I follow them closely, and have been doing an Oscar prediction contest (BOPMadness…Bufo’s Oscar Prediction Madness) for decades. We are usually very accurate, and this year, I think we were probably as far off as we’ve ever been.

I think my method is sound…one factor may have been that we had relatively few players. While I haven’t analyzed it, my intuition is that the more players we have, the better we do. I promoted it quite a bit on Twitter, and I’ll plan to do that again next year, but that didn’t get me many guessers.

It also seems like a lot of other people didn’t do as well as usual. This suggests, perhaps, that the Academy has been successful in changing its membership and its attitudes. In particular, they’ve been trying to address the “#OscarsSoWhite” controversy and the winners this year did reflect more ethnic diversity, especially in the Big Six (acting, directing, Best Picture). Still, outside of the gender-defined acting categories, the nominees were overwhelmingly male…

First, I’ll do some reactions to the broadcast and the results generally, then I’ll talk about the BOPMadness results:

  • Not having a host seemed to work…certainly, it felt like things ran more predictably. That’s both good and bad: if you ask me about my memories of Oscar broadcasts, many of them would have to do with the hosts…especially Billy Crystal. The moment of Jack Palance doing one-handed push-ups, and Crystal’s reaction? Classic! However, in recent years, it has sometimes felt like the Oscars were too much about the host, especially with canned comedy bits and stunts
  • That said, I don’t understand how, when everything seemed to be running like clockwork, they¬†still managed to run significantly late!
  • Something that did still feel like stunts? The choice of celebrities who presented. I understand why they wanted to go outside of Hollywood…it shows the broad interest in movies that people might think is fading, over prestige TV and other options. Also, it seems like people are increasingly politicizing Hollywood, and this helps disarm that. I have to say, though, some of the presenters seemed like they¬†felt awkward…
  • Big congratulations go to Black Panther for the first Oscar wins for the MCU (Marvel Cinematic Universe)! While it didn’t win Best Picture, which was what some people wanted, it did get into mainstream categories, especially Costume. It had to defeat period pieces, and what could legitimately be called “costume dramas”…however, geek-friendly nominees have won in this category in recent years (2016: Fantastic Beasts; 2015: Mad Max: Fury Road; 2010: Alice in Wonderland). DC, by the way, did win one in recent years…Suicide Squad won for Makeup and Hairstyling
  • Even bigger congrats to Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse for its Animated Feature win! It had been winning quite a bit, and this is a win for Marvel, even if not specifically for the MCU
  • Green Book’s win surprised us, and many other people. We had it at 58%, which made it tied for 2nd (with The Favourite)…but we had Roma at a 93% chance
  • Outside of Black Panther and the animated categories, geek-friendly nominees were pretty much shut-out. Even in Visual Effects, the most muggle of the group, First Man, won
  • Trevor Noah probably had the funniest joke of the night (even though you had to understand Xhosa to get it live…I don’t, by the way)
  • I was pretty surprised by people’s reactions to the Lady Gaga/Bradley Cooper duet. It took me three tweets, but I said, “If the rest of us find the social embracings of actors and actresses somewhat excessive, we must remember three things. Not only are they trained to show their passions easily, but they are also put under severe emotional strain by the nature of their work, and, in addition, theirs happens to be a particularly insecure occupation. They need all the mutual reassurance they can get.”–Desmond Morris, writing in Intimate Behavior | As a former actor myself, I feel sorry for those who seem to feel that the connection shown by Bradley Cooper & Lady Gaga during the Oscars can only happen between romantic (& for some, the implication is sexual or future sexual) partners

Now, in terms of BOPMadness:

  • Big Six: we were 81%
  • The Incredibly Difficult Maven Section: 74%
  • Overall: 76%
  • We predicted the following categories: Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Director, Costume, Makeup & Hairstyling, Score (well, half-way…our top two were a tie), Animated Feature. For contrast, last year we picked all of the Big Six except for Best Picture (where our second choice won)…last year was far more typical
  • Our top winner, “George Monkey”, did really well! 94% on The Big Six, 92% on the Maven section, and 93% overall! KT also did pick Green Book for Best Picture…impressive!
  • As for me…76% on the Big Six, 75% on Maven (I usually do really well there), and 76% Overall. That’s not bad, but not as good as I would have liked

I really appreciate everyone who played! I hope you all play again, and that we have even more people next year!

Now, I do want to talk generally about the Oscars…I’ve had some discussions about it on Twitter.

For me, there is a very big difference between the awards and the broadcast. The awards are for by and for the professionals. Given that, I would like to see more Oscars…especially stunts (SAG does that) and casting. I also think doing one for trailers would make sense…it’s a special art form which can have a giant impact on movies.

The broadcast is an educational and fundraising activity: it’s for the public. That’s why they already pick which Oscars appear on the telecast…they don’t do the scientific/technical ones. Yes, it’s nice that all of the current awardees get to be on TV…but honestly, I would understand if there were some which were removed from the main broadcast. They could also be made available other ways. That’s not to say that I respect those artists any less….but the broadcast needs to be popular.

On the other hand, I think it’s important that the awards themselves not try to become less “arty”. I don’t like the idea at all of having a “popular” movies category. What that would tend to do is keep very popular movies from winning the regular “Best Picture” category…that’s also an argument against the Animated Feature category, but an animated movie is objectively different (even though that seems to be where a lot of the most successful original, non-remake or sequel, work is being done). A movie which is popular is not by definition different from one which is “art house”. Some movies which start out as art house movies later break $100m dogro (domestic gross), which I think we can safely say is popular.

The Oscars have the “lane” of being the prestige insider awards, and they should stay there. They don’t want to compete with MTV and The People’s Choice, and they aren’t awards given by critics or journalists. Figuring out how to make the broadcast of the awards attractive is fine…but don’t do it by changing the nature of the awards.

That’s what I think…feel free to tell me and my readers what you think by commenting on this post!

Well, it was another interesting Oscar year! I’m already starting to contemplate next year… ūüėČ

See you in the movies!

Join thousands of readers and try the free The Measured Circle magazine at Flipboard!

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BOPMadness (Bufo’s Oscar Prediction Madness) 2019: our predictions (will be updated with winners)

February 24, 2019

BOPMadness (Bufo’s Oscar Prediction Madness) 2019: our predictions (will be updated with winners)

Thank you to everybody who played! I’ve been doing this Oscar prediction contest for decades, and the more people who play, I think the better we do.

First, I’m going to give you our percentage chances, sorted by category. I’m going to follow that with our predictions sorted by likelihood.

Nominee % Winner Got It
Best Picture [Black Panther (Kevin Feige)] 53%
Best Picture [BlacKkKlansman (Sean McKittrick, Jason Blum, Raymond Mansfield, Jordan Peele and Spike Lee)] 43%
Best Picture [Bohemian Rhasody (Graham King)] 33%
Best Picture [The Favourite (Ceci Dempsey, Ed Guiney, Lee Magiday and Yorgos Lanthimos] 58%
Best Picture [Green Book (Jim Burke, Charles B. Wessler, Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly and Nick Vallelonga)] 58%      X
Best Picture [Roma (Gabriela Rodríguez and Alfonso Cuaron,)] 93%
Best Picture [A Star Is Born (Bill Gerber, Bradley Cooper and Lynette Howell Taylor)] 28%
Best Picture [Vice (Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Adam McKay and Kevin Messick)] 43%
Lead Actress [Yalitza Aparicio in Roma] 72%
Lead Actress [Glenn Close in The Wife] 68%
Lead Actress [Olivia Coleman in The Favourite] 64%      X
Lead Actress [Lady Gaga in A Star Is Born] 24%
Lead Actress [Melissa McCarthy in Can You Ever Forgive Me?] 36%
Lead Actor [Christian Bale in Vice] 56%
Lead Actor [Bradley Cooper in A Star Is Born] 48%
Lead Actor [Willem Dafoe in At Eternity’s Gate] 52%
Lead Actor [Rami Malek in Bohemian Rhapsody] 44%      X
Lead Actor [Viggo Mortensen in Green Book] 52%
Supporting Actor [Mahershala Ali in Green Book] 64%      X      X
Supporting Actor [Adam Driver in BlacKkKlansman] 36%
Supporting Actor [Sam Elliott in A Star Is Born] 48%
Supporting Actor [Richard E. Grant in Can You Ever Forgive Me?] 48%
Supporting Actor [Sam Rockwell in Vice] 56%
Supporting Actress [Amy Adams in Vice] 56%
Supporting Actress [Marina de Tavira in Roma] 28%
Supporting Actress [Regina King in If Beale Street Could Talk] 72%      X     X
Supporting Actress [Emma Stone in The Favourite] 52%
Supporting Actress [Rachel Weisz in The Favourite] 44%
Directing [Alfonso Cuaron for Roma] 84%       X      X
Directing [Yorgos Lanthimos for The Favourite] 48%
Directing [Spike Lee for BlacKkKlansman] 44%
Directing [Adam McKay for Vice] 36%
Directing [Pawel Pawlikowski for Cold War] 40%
Original Screenplay [The Favourite (Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara)] 40%
Original Screenplay [First Reformed (Paul Schrader)] 44%
Original Screenplay [Green Book (Nick Vallelonga, Brian Hayes Currie, Peter Farrelly)] 60%      X
Original Screenplay [Roma (Alfonso Cuaron)] 64%
Original Screenplay [Vice (Adam McKay)] 44%
Adapted Screenplay [The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (Joel Coen, Ethan Coen)] 32%
Adapted Screenplay [BlacKkKlansman (Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott, Spike Lee)] 56%      X
Adapted Screenplay [Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Nicole Holofcener, Jeff Whitty)] 64%
Adapted Screenplay [If Beale Street Could Talk (Barry Jenkins)] 48%
Adapted Screenplay [A Star Is Born (Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper, Will Fetters)] 52%
Cinematography [Cold War (Lukasz Zal)] 60%
Cinematography [The Favourite (Robbie Ryan)] 72%
Cinematography [Never Look Away (Caleb Deschanel)] 40%
Cinematography [Roma (Alfonso Cuaron)] 52%      X
Cinematography [A Star Is Born (Matthew Libatique)] 28%
Film Editing [BlacKkKlansman (Barry Alexander Brown)] 40%
Film Editing [Bohemian Rhapsody (John Ottman)] 44%       X
Film Editing [The Favourite (Yorgos Mavropsaridis)] 64%
Film Editing [Green Book (Patrick J. Don Vito)] 36%
Film Editing [Vice (Hank Corwin)] 68%
Production Design [Black Panther (Hannah Beachler, Jay Hart)] 56%      X
Production Design [The Favourite (Fiona Crombie, Alice Felton)] 84%
Production Design [First Man (Nathan Crowley, Kathy Lucas)] 32%
Production Design [Mary Poppins Returns (John Myhre, Gordon Sim)] 40%
Production Design [Roma (Eugenio Caballero, Barbara Enriquez)] 40%
Costume [The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (Mary Zophres)] 20%
Costume [Black Panther (Ruth E. Carter)] 72%       X      X
Costume [The Favourite (Sandy Powell)] 52%
Costume [Mary Poppins Returns (Sandy Powell)] 48%
Costume [Mary Queen of Scots (Alexandra Byrne)] 60%
Makeup and Hairstyling [Border (Göran Lundström, Pamela Goldammer)] 20%
Makeup and Hairstyling [Mary Queen of Scots (Jenny Shircore, Marc Pilcher, Jessica Brooks)] 53%
Makeup and Hairstyling [Vice (Greg Cannom, Kate Biscoe, Patricia Dehaney)] 73%      X       X
Score [Black Panther (Ludwig Göransson)] 56%       X   X (tie)
Score [BlacKkKlansman (Terence Blanchard)] 40%
Score [If Beale Street Could Talk (Nicholas Britell)] 48%
Score [Isle of Dogs (Alexandre Desplat)] 52%
Score [Mary Poppins Returns (Marc Shaiman)] 56%
Song [When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings from The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (David Rawlings, Gillian Welch)] 28%
Song [All the Stars from Black Panther (Sounwave, Kendrick Lamar, Anthony Tiffith, SZA)] 68%
Song [The Place Where Lost Things Go from Marry Poppins Returns (Marc Shaiman, Scott Wittman)] 60%
Song [I’ll Fight from RBG (Diane Warren)] 52%
Song [Shallow from A Star Is Born (Lady Gaga, Mark Ronson, Anthony Rossomando, Andrew Wyatt)] 44%      X
Sound Mixing [Black Panther (Steve Boeddeker, Brandon Proctor, Peter J. Devlin)] 60%
Sound Mixing [Bohemian Rhapsody (Paul Massey, Tim Cavagin, John Casali)] 36%      X
Sound Mixing [First Man (Jon Taylor, Frank A. Monta√ɬĪo, Ai-Ling Lee, Mary H. Ellis)] 40%
Sound Mixing [Roma (Skip Lievsay, Craig Henighan, José Antonio García)] 56%
Sound Mixing [A Star Is Born (Tom Ozanich, Dean A. Zupancic, Jason Ruder, Steven Morrow)] 60%
Sound Editing [Black Panther (Benjamin A. Burtt, Steve Boeddeker)] 32%
Sound Editing [Bohemian Rhapsody (John Warhurst, Nina Hartstone)] 56%      X
Sound Editing [First Man (Ai-Ling Lee, Mildred Iatrou)] 64%
Sound Editing [A Quiet Place (Ethan Van der Ryn, Erik Aadahl)] 72%
Sound Editing [Roma (Sergio Diaz, Skip Lievsay)] 28%
Visual Effects [Avengers: Infinity War (Dan DeLeeuw, Kelly Port, Russell Earl, Daniel Sudick)] 40%
Visual Effects [Christopher Robin (Chris Lawrence, Mike Eames, Theo Jones, Chris Corbould)] 44%
Visual Effects [First Man (Paul Lambert, Ian Hunter, Tristan Myles, J.D. Schwalm)] 56%      X
Visual Effects [Ready Player One (Roger Guyett, Grady Cofer, Matthew E. Butler, David Shirk)] 64%
Visual Effects [Solo: A Star Wars Story (Rob Bredow, Patrick Tubach, Neal Scanlan, Dominic Tuohy)] 48%
Documentary Feature [Free Solo (Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi, Jimmy Chin, Evan Hayes, Shannon Dill)] 48%     X
Documentary Feature [Hale County This Morning, This Evening (RaMell Ross, Joslyn Barnes, Su Kim)] 48%
Documentary Feature [Minding the Gap (Bing Liu, Diane Moy Quon)] 44%
Documentary Feature [Of Fathers and Sons (Talal Derki, Ansgar Frerich, Eva Kemme, Tobias Siebert)] 44%
Documentary Feature [RBG (Betsy West, Julie Cohen)] 68%
Documentary Short [Black Sheep (Ed Perkins, Jonathan Chinn)] 56%
Documentary Short [End Game (Rob Epstein, Jeffrey Friedman)] 60%
Documentary Short [Lifeboat (Skye Fitzgerald, Bryn Mooser)] 40%
Documentary Short [A Night at the Garden (Marshall Curry)] 52%
Documentary Short [Period. End of Sentence. (Rayka Zehtabchi, Melissa Berton)] 44%      X
Animated Feature [Incredibles 2 (Brad Bird, John Walker, Nicole Paradis Grindle)] 48%
Animated Feature [Isle of Dogs (Wes Anderson, Scott Rudin, Steven Rales, Jeremy Dawson)] 60%
Animated Feature [Mirai (Mamoru Hosoda, Y√ɬĽichir√ɬī Sait√ɬī)] 40%
Animated Feature [Ralph Breaks the Internet (Rich Moore, Phil Johnston, Clark Spencer)] 36%
Animated Feature [Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (Bob Persichetti, Peter Ramsey, Rodney Rothman, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller)] 68%      X      X
Animated Short [Animal Behaviour (Alison Snowden, David Fine)] 36%
Animated Short [Bao (Domee Shi, Becky Neiman)] 52%      X
Animated Short [Late Afternoon (Louise Bagnall, Nuria González Blanco)] 64%
Animated Short [One Small Step (Andrew Chesworth, Bobby Pontillas)] 40%
Animated Short [Weekends (Trevor Jimenez)] 60%
Live Action Short [Detainment (Vincent Lambe, Darren Mahon)] 56%
Live Action Short [Fauve (Jeremy Comte, Maria Gracia Turgeon)] 48%
Live Action Short [Marguerite (Marianne Farley, Marie-Hélène Panisset)] 68%
Live Action Short [Mother (Rodrigo Sorogoyen, María del Puy Alvarado)] 24%
Live Action Short [Skin (Guy Nattiv, Jaime Ray Newman)] 56%      X
Foreign Language Film [Capernaum (Lebanon)] 32%
Foreign Language Film [Cold War  (Poland)] 64%
Foreign Language Film [Never Look Away (Germany)] 40%
Foreign Language Film [Roma (Mexico)] 60%       X
Foreign Language Film [Shoplifters (Japan)] 56%

Now, here it is, sorted by our likelihood (most likely to least likely):

Nominee %
Best Picture [Roma (Gabriela Rodríguez and Alfonso Cuaron,)] 93%
Directing [Alfonso Cuaron for Roma] 84%
Production Design [The Favourite (Fiona Crombie, Alice Felton)] 84%
Makeup and Hairstyling [Vice (Greg Cannom, Kate Biscoe, Patricia Dehaney)] 73%
Lead Actress [Yalitza Aparicio in Roma] 72%
Supporting Actress [Regina King in If Beale Street Could Talk] 72%
Cinematography [The Favourite (Robbie Ryan)] 72%
Costume [Black Panther (Ruth E. Carter)] 72%
Sound Editing [A Quiet Place (Ethan Van der Ryn, Erik Aadahl)] 72%
Lead Actress [Glenn Close in The Wife] 68%
Film Editing [Vice (Hank Corwin)] 68%
Song [All the Stars from Black Panther (Sounwave, Kendrick Lamar, Anthony Tiffith, SZA)] 68%
Documentary Feature [RBG (Betsy West, Julie Cohen)] 68%
Animated Feature [Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (Bob Persichetti, Peter Ramsey, Rodney Rothman, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller)] 68%
Live Action Short [Marguerite (Marianne Farley, Marie-Hélène Panisset)] 68%
Lead Actress [Olivia Coleman in The Favourite] 64%
Supporting Actor [Mahershala Ali in Green Book] 64%
Original Screenplay [Roma (Alfonso Cuaron)] 64%
Adapted Screenplay [Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Nicole Holofcener, Jeff Whitty)] 64%
Film Editing [The Favourite (Yorgos Mavropsaridis)] 64%
Sound Editing [First Man (Ai-Ling Lee, Mildred Iatrou)] 64%
Visual Effects [Ready Player One (Roger Guyett, Grady Cofer, Matthew E. Butler, David Shirk)] 64%
Animated Short [Late Afternoon (Louise Bagnall, Nuria González Blanco)] 64%
Foreign Language Film [Cold War  (Poland)] 64%
Original Screenplay [Green Book (Nick Vallelonga, Brian Hayes Currie, Peter Farrelly)] 60%
Cinematography [Cold War (Lukasz Zal)] 60%
Costume [Mary Queen of Scots (Alexandra Byrne)] 60%
Song [The Place Where Lost Things Go from Marry Poppins Returns (Marc Shaiman, Scott Wittman)] 60%
Sound Mixing [Black Panther (Steve Boeddeker, Brandon Proctor, Peter J. Devlin)] 60%
Sound Mixing [A Star Is Born (Tom Ozanich, Dean A. Zupancic, Jason Ruder, Steven Morrow)] 60%
Documentary Short [End Game (Rob Epstein, Jeffrey Friedman)] 60%
Animated Feature [Isle of Dogs (Wes Anderson, Scott Rudin, Steven Rales, Jeremy Dawson)] 60%
Animated Short [Weekends (Trevor Jimenez)] 60%
Foreign Language Film [Roma (Mexico)] 60%
Best Picture [The Favourite (Ceci Dempsey, Ed Guiney, Lee Magiday and Yorgos Lanthimos] 58%
Best Picture [Green Book (Jim Burke, Charles B. Wessler, Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly and Nick Vallelonga)] 58%
Lead Actor [Christian Bale in Vice] 56%
Supporting Actor [Sam Rockwell in Vice] 56%
Supporting Actress [Amy Adams in Vice] 56%
Adapted Screenplay [BlacKkKlansman (Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott, Spike Lee)] 56%
Production Design [Black Panther (Hannah Beachler, Jay Hart)] 56%
Score [Black Panther (Ludwig Göransson)] 56%
Score [Mary Poppins Returns (Marc Shaiman)] 56%
Sound Mixing [Roma (Skip Lievsay, Craig Henighan, José Antonio García)] 56%
Sound Editing [Bohemian Rhapsody (John Warhurst, Nina Hartstone)] 56%
Visual Effects [First Man (Paul Lambert, Ian Hunter, Tristan Myles, J.D. Schwalm)] 56%
Documentary Short [Black Sheep (Ed Perkins, Jonathan Chinn)] 56%
Live Action Short [Detainment (Vincent Lambe, Darren Mahon)] 56%
Live Action Short [Skin (Guy Nattiv, Jaime Ray Newman)] 56%
Foreign Language Film [Shoplifters (Japan)] 56%
Best Picture [Black Panther (Kevin Feige)] 53%
Makeup and Hairstyling [Mary Queen of Scots (Jenny Shircore, Marc Pilcher, Jessica Brooks)] 53%
Lead Actor [Willem Dafoe in At Eternity’s Gate] 52%
Lead Actor [Viggo Mortensen in Green Book] 52%
Supporting Actress [Emma Stone in The Favourite] 52%
Adapted Screenplay [A Star Is Born (Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper, Will Fetters)] 52%
Cinematography [Roma (Alfonso Cuaron)] 52%
Costume [The Favourite (Sandy Powell)] 52%
Score [Isle of Dogs (Alexandre Desplat)] 52%
Song [I’ll Fight from RBG (Diane Warren)] 52%
Documentary Short [A Night at the Garden (Marshall Curry)] 52%
Animated Short [Bao (Domee Shi, Becky Neiman)] 52%
Lead Actor [Bradley Cooper in A Star Is Born] 48%
Supporting Actor [Sam Elliott in A Star Is Born] 48%
Supporting Actor [Richard E. Grant in Can You Ever Forgive Me?] 48%
Directing [Yorgos Lanthimos for The Favourite] 48%
Adapted Screenplay [If Beale Street Could Talk (Barry Jenkins)] 48%
Costume [Mary Poppins Returns (Sandy Powell)] 48%
Score [If Beale Street Could Talk (Nicholas Britell)] 48%
Visual Effects [Solo: A Star Wars Story (Rob Bredow, Patrick Tubach, Neal Scanlan, Dominic Tuohy)] 48%
Documentary Feature [Free Solo (Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi, Jimmy Chin, Evan Hayes, Shannon Dill)] 48%
Documentary Feature [Hale County This Morning, This Evening (RaMell Ross, Joslyn Barnes, Su Kim)] 48%
Animated Feature [Incredibles 2 (Brad Bird, John Walker, Nicole Paradis Grindle)] 48%
Live Action Short [Fauve (Jeremy Comte, Maria Gracia Turgeon)] 48%
Lead Actor [Rami Malek in Bohemian Rhapsody] 44%
Supporting Actress [Rachel Weisz in The Favourite] 44%
Directing [Spike Lee for BlacKkKlansman] 44%
Original Screenplay [First Reformed (Paul Schrader)] 44%
Original Screenplay [Vice (Adam McKay)] 44%
Film Editing [Bohemian Rhapsody (John Ottman)] 44%
Song [Shallow from A Star Is Born (Lady Gaga, Mark Ronson, Anthony Rossomando, Andrew Wyatt)] 44%
Visual Effects [Christopher Robin (Chris Lawrence, Mike Eames, Theo Jones, Chris Corbould)] 44%
Documentary Feature [Minding the Gap (Bing Liu, Diane Moy Quon)] 44%
Documentary Feature [Of Fathers and Sons (Talal Derki, Ansgar Frerich, Eva Kemme, Tobias Siebert)] 44%
Documentary Short [Period. End of Sentence. (Rayka Zehtabchi, Melissa Berton)] 44%
Best Picture [BlacKkKlansman (Sean McKittrick, Jason Blum, Raymond Mansfield, Jordan Peele and Spike Lee)] 43%
Best Picture [Vice (Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Adam McKay and Kevin Messick)] 43%
Directing [Pawel Pawlikowski for Cold War] 40%
Original Screenplay [The Favourite (Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara)] 40%
Cinematography [Never Look Away (Caleb Deschanel)] 40%
Film Editing [BlacKkKlansman (Barry Alexander Brown)] 40%
Production Design [Mary Poppins Returns (John Myhre, Gordon Sim)] 40%
Production Design [Roma (Eugenio Caballero, Barbara Enriquez)] 40%
Score [BlacKkKlansman (Terence Blanchard)] 40%
Sound Mixing [First Man (Jon Taylor, Frank A. Monta√ɬĪo, Ai-Ling Lee, Mary H. Ellis)] 40%
Visual Effects [Avengers: Infinity War (Dan DeLeeuw, Kelly Port, Russell Earl, Daniel Sudick)] 40%
Documentary Short [Lifeboat (Skye Fitzgerald, Bryn Mooser)] 40%
Animated Feature [Mirai (Mamoru Hosoda, Y√ɬĽichir√ɬī Sait√ɬī)] 40%
Animated Short [One Small Step (Andrew Chesworth, Bobby Pontillas)] 40%
Foreign Language Film [Never Look Away (Germany)] 40%
Lead Actress [Melissa McCarthy in Can You Ever Forgive Me?] 36%
Supporting Actor [Adam Driver in BlacKkKlansman] 36%
Directing [Adam McKay for Vice] 36%
Film Editing [Green Book (Patrick J. Don Vito)] 36%
Sound Mixing [Bohemian Rhapsody (Paul Massey, Tim Cavagin, John Casali)] 36%
Animated Feature [Ralph Breaks the Internet (Rich Moore, Phil Johnston, Clark Spencer)] 36%
Animated Short [Animal Behaviour (Alison Snowden, David Fine)] 36%
Best Picture [Bohemian Rhasody (Graham King)] 33%
Adapted Screenplay [The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (Joel Coen, Ethan Coen)] 32%
Production Design [First Man (Nathan Crowley, Kathy Lucas)] 32%
Sound Editing [Black Panther (Benjamin A. Burtt, Steve Boeddeker)] 32%
Foreign Language Film [Capernaum (Lebanon)] 32%
Best Picture [A Star Is Born (Bill Gerber, Bradley Cooper and Lynette Howell Taylor)] 28%
Supporting Actress [Marina de Tavira in Roma] 28%
Cinematography [A Star Is Born (Matthew Libatique)] 28%
Song [When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings from The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (David Rawlings, Gillian Welch)] 28%
Sound Editing [Roma (Sergio Diaz, Skip Lievsay)] 28%
Lead Actress [Lady Gaga in A Star Is Born] 24%
Live Action Short [Mother (Rodrigo Sorogoyen, María del Puy Alvarado)] 24%
Costume [The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (Mary Zophres)] 20%
Makeup and Hairstyling [Border (Göran Lundström, Pamela Goldammer)] 20%

I’ll update this with winners!

See you in the movies!

Join thousands of readers and try the free The Measured Circle magazine at Flipboard!

All aboard our The Measured Circle’s Geek Time Trip at The History Project (AKA Enwoven)! Join the TMCGTT Timeblazers!

This post by Bufo Calvin originally appeared in the The Measured Circle blog. 

The Oscars are tomorrow! Help us predict the winners

February 23, 2019

The Oscars are tomorrow! Help us predict the winners

For decades, I’ve done an Oscar prediction contest, BOPMadness (Bufo’s Oscar Prediction Madness).

We tend to be very accurate: last year, we scored 94% overall.

Why is that?

It’s the wisdom of crowds, and the method I use for people to make their predictions.

You can still make your predictions, and the more people who do so, the better I think we’ll do. Use this form:

https://t.co/AgRAFC30xe

It should just take you a couple of minutes: you rank every nominee in every category.

You have until noon Pacific time on Sunday, 24 February to complete it. I’ll close the voting then.

That will give me time to put out our predictions before the ceremony.

In case you are wondering, I make my own predictions before I receive anybody else’s, so I’m not unfairly influenced. I also don’t make our predictions publicly available until I close the voting.

While so far, I’ve talked about the group value, individuals certainly do compete as well. We announce winners in The Big Six (the acting categories, Best Picture, and Director), the Incredibly Difficult Maven Section (everything else), and Overall (combining the two). We play for that most valuable of human possessions…Bragging Rights. ūüėČ

You also have the option to have your guesses e-mailed to you, so you can play along.

I’d love it if you play, but even if you don’t, you can see our predictions in this blog on Sunday.

See you in the movies!

Join thousands of readers and try the free The Measured Circle magazine at Flipboard!

All aboard our The Measured Circle’s Geek Time Trip at The History Project (AKA Enwoven)! Join the TMCGTT Timeblazers!

This post by Bufo Calvin originally appeared in the The Measured Circle blog. 

 

2019 Oscar noms

January 22, 2019

2019 Oscar noms

This is preliminary, almost live-blogging…I’ll refine it soon this morning.

Some thoughts:

  • Black Panther got a number of noms, including Best Picture. Kendrick Lamar gets a nomination for song, and this is the first Marvel movie to be nominated for Best Picture
  • No acting noms in GF (geek-friendly) movies: are we back to the Academy thinking that people don’t act in GF movies? They aren’t exceptionally well directed or written?
  • Generally, this year is not as geek-friendly as it could have been. A Quiet Place, which some thought might follow Get Out as an Oscar-nommed horror movie, Mary Poppins Returns, Bird Box, Annihilation, certainly didn’t see much action. AQP was nommed for Sound Editing, but major noms didn’t go geeky…compare that to last year, especially with The Shape of Water, the aforementioned Get Out, and Beauty and the Beast
  • Netflix gets its first Best Picture nom for Roma
  • The Mary Poppins Returns showing (Song, Score, Costume, Production Design) has to be seen as disappointing
  • While not geek-friendly, it was interesting to see Melissa McCarthy get nominated for Leading Actress (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)…congratulations! She was in a geek-friendly movie in 2018…but wasn’t nominated for The Happytime Murders ūüėČ
  • If you want to see the big name movies online, you can shell out for HBO and watch them on Now or Go (or, if you have AT&T for internet, you get it on DirecTV…although I have to say, I find that app particularly difficult to use). For the roughly $10 a month club, it’s definitely Netflix, at least for geeky titles

I’m going to call out the geeky nominees, and I’ll make some comments.

Note: I used Gold Derby to help me determine “buzz”. I was surprised to see Suspiria show up as much as it did there…

Best Original Song

  • All the Stars (Black Panther)
  • The Place Where Lost Things Go (Mary Poppins Returns)

SFX (Special Effects)

  • Avengers: Infinity War
  • Christopher Robin
  • Ready Player One
  • Solo: A Star Wars Story
  • First Man (geek status debatable)

Doc Short

Documentary Feature

Editing

No GF nominees in this category

Sound Mixing

  • Black Panther
  • First Man (geek status debatable)

Sound Editing

  • Black Panther
  • A Quiet Place
  • First Man (geek status debatable)

Production Design

  • Black Panther
  • Mary Poppins Returns
  • First Man (geek status debatable)

Live Action Short

Animated Short

Best Animated Feature

  • Incredibles 2
  • Isle of Dogs
  • Mirai
  • Ralph Breaks the Internet
  • Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

 Supporting Actor

No GF nominees in this category

Other geeky movies which had buzz in this category:

  • Michael B. Jordan (Black Panther)
  • John Krasinski (A Quiet Place)
  • Alex Wolff (Hereditary)
  • Hugh Grant (Paddington 2)
  • John Malkovich (Bird Box)
  • Trevante Rhodes (Bird Box)
  • Oscar Isaac (Annihilation)
  • Kyle Chandler (First Man) (geek status debatable)
  • Corey Stoll (First Man) (geek status debatable)

Supporting Actress

No GF nominees in this category

Other geeky movies which had buzz in this category:

  • Emily Blunt (A Quiet Place)
  • Danai Gurira (Black Panther)
  • Lupita Nyong’o (Black Panther)
  • Letitia Wright (Black Panther)
  • Tilda Swinton (Suspiria)
  • Sarah Paulson (Bird Box)
  • Jennifer Jason Leigh (Annihilation)
  • Gina Rodriguez (Annihilation)
  • Meryll Streep (Mary Poppins Returns)
  • Clare Foy (First Man) (geek status debatable)

Makeup and Hairstyling

No geeky nominees in this category

Costume

  • Black Panther
  • Mary Poppins Returns

Other geeky movies which had buzz in this category:

  • Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald
  • The Nutcracker and the Four Realms
  • Avengers: Infinity War
  • Suspiria
  • Ready Player One
  • A Quiet Place
  • Annihilation
  • Hereditary
  • Bird Box
  • First Man (geek status debatable)

Cinematography

No GF nominees in this category

Other geeky movies which had buzz in this category:

  • Black Panther
  • A Quiet Place
  • Mary Poppins Returns
  • Avengers: Infinity War
  • Suspiria¬†
  • Hereditary
  • Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald
  • Bird Box
  • Annihilation

Original Screenplay

No GF nominees in this category

Other geeky movies which had buzz in this category:

  • A Quiet Place
  • Hereditary
  • Isle of Dogs

Adapted Screenplay

No GF nominees in this category

Other geeky movies which had buzz in this category:

  • Black Panther
  • Mary Poppins Returns
  • Bird Box
  • Paddington 2
  • Incredibles 2
  • Suspiria
  • Annihilation
  • Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Original Score

  • Black Panther
  • Isle of Dogs
  • Mary Poppins Returns

Foreign Language

No GF nominees in this category

Directing

No GF nominees in this category

Other geeky movies which had buzz in this category:

  • Ryan Coogler (Black Panther)
  • John Krasinski (A Quiet Place)
  • Rob Marshall (Mary Poppins Returns)
  • Luca Guadagnino (Suspiria)
  • Wes Anderson (Isle of Dogs)
  • Susanne Bier (Bird Box)
  • Alex Garland (Annihilation)

Lead Actress

No gf nominees in this category

Other geeky movies which had buzz in this category:

  • Emily Blunt (Mary Poppins Returns)
  • Toni Collette (Hereditary)
  • Sandra Bullock (Bird Box)
  • Emily Blunt (A Quiet Place)
  • Dakota Johnson (Suspiria)
  • Natalie Portman (Annihilation)

Lead Actor

No GF nominees in this category

Other geeky movies which had buzz in this category:

  • Chadwick Boseman (Black Panther)
  • Lin-Manuel Miranda (Mary Poppins Returns)
  • Ryan Gosling (First Man) (geek status debatable)

Best Picture

  • Black Panther

Other geeky movies which had buzz in this category:

  • Mary Poppins Returns
  • A Quiet Place
  • Hereditary
  • Incredibles 2
  • First Man (geek status debatable)
  • Bird Box
  • Suspiria
  • Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
  • Annihilation
  • Isle of Dogs

Where can you legally stream any of these Oscar nominees without paying additional money (subscriptions required)?

Amazon Prime:

Hulu:

Netflix:

  • Black Panther
  • Avengers: Infinity War
  • Solo: A Star Wars Story

HBO Now/HBO Go/the HBO Amazon Channel

  • Ready Player One
  • Isle of Dogs

As we saw last year, Netflix is the place to be for the nominated geek-friendly movies. People are thinking of them more for original content, but they still walk the big dogs.

How about streaming if you are willing to piece pay to rent or buy? All links are to JustWatch:

Complete list of nominees from the Academy website:

http://oscar.go.com/nominees

Stay tuned for our annual BOPMadness (Bufo’s Oscar Prediction Madness) if you want to predict the winners!

Join thousands of readers and try the free The Measured Circle magazine at Flipboard

Join thousands of readers and try the free The Measured Circle magazine at Flipboard !

All aboard our new The Measured Circle’s Geek Time Trip at The History Project! Join the TMCGTT Timeblazers!

This post by Bufo Calvin originally appeared in the The Measured Circle blog. 

BOPMadness 2018: final results and comments

March 24, 2018

BOPMadness 2018: final results and comments

It was a good year for the team!

It’s been a few weeks since the Oscars ceremony, so a quick summary:

I’ve been doing an Oscar predictions thing for decades. Anybody can play. Players rate every nominee in every category based on what they think the Academy will do. I aggregate those guesses and put them out before the ceremony. Our system tends to do pretty well (although I don’t get them out soon enough to help you in your office games).

We break it down into two categories (and the overall):

  • The Big Six: the acting categories, Best Picture, and Best Director
  • The Incredibly Difficult Maven Section: everything else

Let’s start with the Big Six:

The group scored a 97%! We called every category except for Best Picture (we went with Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Montana…but we did have The Shape of Water second).

  • Best Picture: The Shape of Water (we gave it an 86%, and Three Billboards a 92%): I got this one wrong: I was concerned that the plagiarism allegations were going to affect it. This is a major win for geeky movies…it’s rare for a non-musical geeky movie to win
  • Best Director: Guillermo del Toro for The Shape of Water: we were 100% on this one. Nothing else was even close. Obviously, I picked this one as well. Another advance for geeky moviemakers
  • Lead Actress: Frances McDormand in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Montana: we were 100%
  • Lead Actor: Gary Oldman in Darkest Hour: 100% Oldman has a lot of geeky credits, so this is a pedigeek win
  • Supporting Actor: Sam Rockwell in Three Bilboards Outside Ebbing, Montana: 100%…and another pedigeek win
  • Supporting Actress: Allison Janney in I, Tonya: 95% (but we picked it as the winner…Laurie Metcalf was closest at 85%

The team picked every category except Best Picture, and scored a 97%. Two of our players scored 100%: Marianne and Scott. Amazing! I personally got a 94%. By the way, I make my guesses before I see anybody else’s guesses, just to be fair.

Now, the Incredibly Difficult Maven Section.

There was a complication this year. I keep trying to find a best way to do this online. This year, I went with an Excel form…that was good for analysis, but it had a limitation I didn’t realize at first. You can only have 100 questions in a survey…since each nominee is a question, that wasn’t enough. That meant that there were two surveys: that’s also been true with some systems in the past but because I realized it up front, I could make the instructions very clear. Fully a third of our players didn’t complete the second survey. That affects those individuals scores, but I’ve decided not to have it affect the team scores. The percentage of the prediction will be based on the guesses on those questions, not the non-guesses, and that seems fair.

  • Original Screenplay: Jordan Peele for Get Out: 95%, and we got it right as a group. This is another win for geeky movies
  • Adapted Screenplay: James Ivory for Call Me By Your Name: 100%
  • Cinematography: Roger Deakins for Bladerunner 2049: we missed this one, but just barely. ūüôā The group picked Hoyte Van Hoytema for Dunkirk. I personally missed this one…I really underestimated the love for Bladerunner 2049 throughout…I gave this the lowest possibility, a one out of five. The group gave it a 70%, and we gave Dunkirk a 75%. That means the group still gets four points our of five, since that was our second highest
  • Costume: Mark Bridges for Phantom Thread: 90%, and we called it
  • Film Editing: Lee Smith for Dunkirk 95%, and we called it
  • Sound Mixing:¬†Gregg Landaker, Gary Rizzo, Mark Weingarten for Dunkirk 95%, and we called it
  • Sound Editing:¬†Richard King, Alex Gibson for Dunkirk 95%, and we called it
  • Visual Effects: John Nelson, Gerd Nefzer, Paul Lambert, Richard R. Hoover for Blade Runner 2049: 65% chance for the group, and we had a couple of ties, so we got 2.5 points. We picked War for the Planet of the Apes, but we weren’t confident on this. I really blew this one this year, and made this this least likely
  • Makeup and Hairstyling: Kazuhiro Tsuji, David Malinowski, Lucy Sibbick for Darkest Hour: 100% and we called it
  • Original Song: Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez or “Remember Me” from Coco: we gave it 85% and we called it
  • Original Score: Alexandre Desplat for The Shape of Water and we called it unanimously (100%)
  • Animated Short: Glen Keane and Kobe Bryant for Dear Basketball: we called it with 85%
  • Live Action Short: Chris Overton and Rachel Shenton for The Silent Child: we picked DeKalb Elementary with 80%…but we had this picked second at 70%, so we get 4 points
  • Animated Feature: Lee Unkrich and Darla K. Anderson for Coco: wnanimous at 100%, so we get this one
  • Best Documentary Short: Frank Stiefel: Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405:¬†We were pretty sure it was going to be Heroin(e) or Edith+Eddie…we gave them both 85%. We only gave the winner 50%, and we get 3.5 points
  • Best Documentary Feature: Bryan Fogel and Dan Cogan for Icarus:¬†we thought it would be Faces Places…we ended up with 2.5 points, and had predicted the winner at 55%
  • Foreign Language: Chile won for A Fantastic Woman. We had that one at 90% and we called it
  • Production Design: Paul D. Austerberry, Shane Vieau, and Jeffrey A. Melvin for The Shape of Water: 90% and we called it

We did well on this! We called 13 out of 18 and this is always tough. We got enough right and were close on others, so we end up with a 90%!

George Monkey was the Maven winner with 93%! Congratulations, George Monkey!

For the last accounting, looking at the overall:

The team scored 94%.

Our overall winner was George Monkey with 93%.

This year’s winners:

  • Big Six: Marianne and Scott (tie)
  • The Incredibly Difficult Maven Section: George Monkey
  • Overall: George Monkey

I’ve learned some things about the way I did it this year…hopefully, next year will reap a benefit from this year’s experience in that category…and that next year is another good year for the predictions!

Thanks for playing, everybody! See you in the movies!

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BOPMadness final Oscar predictions (results will also appear here later)

March 4, 2018

BOPMadness final Oscar predictions (results will also appear here later)

Here are our final predictions for tonight’s Oscars! Thanks to everyone who played!

Each player/team ranks each nominee in each category. That enables me to come up with the percentage chance that the group gave of each nominee winning. Note that the players are predicting, not saying what they would like to see win.

As has happened in the past, we have some ties in the predictions. Let’s say two of the nominees in the same 5-nominew category are tied for being the most likely. If one nominee had the highest total and it won, we’d get five points. However, if there are two, we’ll only get 4.5 points.

I’ll put the winners in here, and we can see how we did. ūüôā

Before it starts, though, I’ll note our surest bests and longest shots:

Surest bets (100% chance):

  • Lead Actor:¬†Gary Oldman in Darkest Hour
  • Lead Actress:¬†Frances McDormand in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
  • Supporting Actor:¬†Sam Rockwell in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
  • Directing:¬†Guillermo del Toro for The Shape of Water
  • Adapted Screenplay:¬†James Ivory for Call Me by Your Name
  • Makeup & Hairstyling:¬†Kazuhiro Tsuji, David Mainowski, Lucy Sibbick for Darkest Hour
  • Original Score:¬†Alexandre Desplat for The Shape of Water
  • Animated Feature: Lee Unkrich, Darla K. Anderson for Coco

Longest shots (20%):

  • Lead Actress: Meryl Streep in The Post
  • Directing:¬†Paul Thomas Anderson for Phantom Thread

The Big Six

Best Picture:

  1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri: 92%
  2. The Shape of Water 86% Winner [missed it: 8 points]
  3. Get Out 83%
  4. Dunkirk 69%
  5. Lady Bird 58%
  6. Call Me By Your Name 33%
  7. Darkest Hour/Phantom Thread 28%
  8. –Tie
  9. The Post 22%

Lead Actor

  1. Gary Oldman in Darkest Hour 100% Winner [called it]
  2. Daniel Kaluuya in Get Out 65%
  3. Daniel Day-Lewis in Phantom Thread 55%
  4. Timothee Chalomet in Call Me by Your Name 50%
  5. Denzel Washington in Roman J. Israel, Esq. 30%

Lead Actress

  1. Frances McDormand in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 100% Winner [called it]
  2. Sally Hawkins in The Shape of Water 75%
  3. Saoirse Ronan in Lady Bird 65%
  4. Margot Robbie in I, Tonya 40%
  5. Meryl Streep in The Post 20%

Supporting Actress

  1. Allison Janney in I, Tonya 95% Winner [called it]
  2. Laurie Metcalf in Lady Bird 85%
  3. Mary J. Blige in Mudbound 45%
  4. Lesley Manville in Phantom Thread 40%
  5. Octavia Spencer in The Shape of Water 35%

Supporting Actor

  1. Sam Rockwell in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 100% Winner  [called it]
  2. Willem Dafoe in The Florida Project 65%
  3. Christopher Plummer in All the Money in the World 55%
  4. Richard Jenkins in The Shape of Water 50%
  5. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 30%

Directing

  1. Guillermo del Toro for The Shape of Water 100% Winner [called it]
  2. Greta Gerwig for Lady Bird/Jordan Peele for Get Out 65%
  3. –Tie
  4. Christopher Nolan for Dunkirk 50%
  5. Paul Thomas Anderson for Phantom Thread 20%

The Incredibly Difficult Maven Section

Original Screenplay

  1. Jordan Peele for Get Out 95% Winner [called it]
  2. Martin McDonagh for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 75%
  3. Greta Gerwig for Lady Bird 70%
  4. Guillermo del Toro, Vanessa Taylor for The Shape of Water 35%
  5. Kumail Nanjiani, Emily V. Gordon for The Big Sick 25%

Adapted Screenplay

  1. James Ivory for Call Me by Your Name 100% Winner [called it]
  2. Dee Rees, Virgil Williams for Mudbound 75%
  3. Aaron Sorkin for Molly’s Game 60%
  4. Scott Frank, James Mangold, Michael Green for Logan 35%
  5. Scott Neustadter, Michael H. Weber for The Disaster Artist 30%

Cinematography

  1. Hoyte Van Hoytema for Dunkirk 75%
  2. Roger Deakins for Blade Runner 2049 70% Winner [missed it: 4 points]
  3. Dan Laustsen for The Shape of Water 65%
  4. Rachel Morrison for Mudbound 55%
  5. Bruno Delbonnel for the Darkest Hour 35%

Costume

  1. Mark Bridges for Phantom Thread 90% Winner [called it]
  2. Luis Sequiera for The Shape of Water 75%
  3. Consolata Boyle for Victoria & Abdul 50%
  4. Jacqueline Durran for Beauty and the Beast 45%
  5. Jacqueline Durran for Darkest Hour 40%

Film Editing

  1. Lee Smith for Dunkirk 95% Winner [called it]
  2. Sidney Wolinsky for The Shape of Water 60%
  3. Paul Machliss, Jonathan Amos for Baby Driver 55%
  4. Jon Gregory for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 50%
  5. Tatiana S. Riegel for I, Tonya 40%

Sound Mixing

  1. Gregg Landaker, Gary Rizzo, Mark Weingarten for Dunkirk 95% Winner [called it]
  2. Tim Cavigan, Mary H. Ellis, Julian Slater for Baby Driver 60%
  3. Michael Semanick, David Parker, Stuart Wilson, Ren Klyce for Star Wars: The Last Jedi/Christian T. Cooke, Glen Gauthier, Brad Zoern for The Shape of Water 50%
  4. (tie)
  5. Ron Bartlett, Doug Hemphill, Mac Ruth for Blade Runner 2049 45%

Sound Editing

  1. Richard King, Alex Gibson for Dunkirk 95% Winner [called it]
  2. Julian Slater for Baby Driver/Matthew Wood, Ren Klyce for Star Wars: The Last Jedi 60%
  3. (tie)
  4. Mark A. Mangini, Theo Green for Blade Runner 2049  50%
  5. Nathan Robitaille, Nelson Ferreira for The Shape of Water  35%

Visual Effects

  1. Ben Morris, Michael Mulholland, Neal Scanlan, Chris Corbould for Star Wars: The Last Jedi/Joe Letteri, Daniel Barrett, Dan Lemmon, Joel Whist for War for the Planet of the Apes  70%
  2. –tie
  3. John Nelson, Gerd Nefzer, Paul Lambert, Richard R. Hoover for Blade Runner 2049 Winner [missed it: 2.5 points]/Christopher Townsend, Guy Williams, Jonathan Fawkner, Daniel Sudnick for Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 65% Winner
  4. –tie
  5. Stephen Rosenbaum, Jeff White, Scott Benza, Michael Meinardus for Kong: Skull Island 30%

Makeup and Hairstyling

  1. Kazuhiro Tsuji, David Mainowski, Lucy Sibbick for Darkest Hour 100% Winner [called it]
  2. Arjen Tuiten for Wonder 58%
  3. Daniel Phillips, Louis Sheppard for Victoria & Abdul 42%

Original Song

  1. Kristen Anderson-Lopez, Robert Lopez for “Remember Me” from Coco 85% Winner [called it]
  2. Benj Pasek, Justin Paul for “This Is Me” from The Greatest Showman 75%
  3. Sufjan Stevens for “Mystery of Love” from Call Me by Your Name 55%
  4. Raphael Saadiq, Mary J. Blige, Taura Stinson for “Mighty River” from Mudbound 45%
  5. Common, Diane Warren for “Stand Up for Something” from Marshall 40%

Original Score

  1. Alexandre Desplat for The Shape of Water 100% winner [called it]
  2. Hans Zimmer for Dunkirk 75%
  3. Carter Burwell for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 45%
  4. Johnny Greenwood for Phantom Thread/John Williams for Star Wars: The Last Jedi 40%
  5. –tie

Live Action Short

  1. Reed Van Dyk for DeKalb Elementary 80%
  2. Chris Overton, Rachel Shenton for The Silent Child 70% Winner [missed it: 4 points]
  3. Katja Benrath, Tobias Rosen for Watu Wote: All of Us 65%
  4. Derin Seale, Josh Lawson for The Eleven O’Clock 50%
  5. Kevin Wilson Jr. for My Nephew Emmett 35%

Animated Short

  1. Glen Keane, Kobe Bryant for Dear Basketball 85% Winner [called it]
  2. Jakob Schuh, Jan Lachauer for Revolting Rhymes Part One 60%
  3. Victor Caire, Gabriel Grapperon for Garden Party/Max Porter, Ru Kuwahata for Negative Space 55%
  4. –tie
  5. Dave Mullins, Dana Murray for Lou 45%

Animated Feature

  1. Lee Unkrich, Darla K. Anderson for Coco 100% Winner [called it]
  2. Dorota Kobiela, Hugh Welchman, Ivan Mactaggart for Loving Vincent 80%
  3. Nora Twomey, Anthony Leo for The Breadwinner 55%
  4. Carlos Saldanha for Ferdinand 40%
  5. Tom McGrath, Ramsey Ann Naito for The Boss Baby 25%

Documentary Short

  1. Laura Checkoway, Thomas Lee Wright for Edith+Eddie/Elaine McMillion Sheldon, Kerrin James Sheldon for Heroin(e) 85%
  2. –tie
  3. Frank Stiefel for Heaven Is a Traffic Jam on the 405 50% Winner [missed it: 3.5 points]
  4. Kate Davis, David Heilbroner for Traffic Stop 45%
  5. Thomas Lennon for Knife Skills 35%

Documentary Feature

  1. Agnes Varda, Rosalie Varda, Jr. for Faces Places 75%
  2. Kareem Abeed, Soeren Steen Jesperson, Feras Fayyad for Last Men in Aleppo 70%
  3. Bryan Fogel, Dan Cogan for Icarus/Yance Ford, Joslyn Barnes for Strong Island 55% Winner [missed: 2.5 points]
  4. –tie
  5. Steve James, Mark Mitten, Julie Goldman for Abacus: Small Enough to Jail 45%

Foreign Language

  1. A Fantastic Woman (Chile) 90% Winner [called it]
  2. The Square (Sweden) 70%
  3. On Body and Soul (Hungary)/The Insult (Lebanon) 50%
  4. –tie
  5. Loveless (Russia) 40%

Production Design

  1. Paul D. Austerberry, Shane Vieau, Jeffrey A. Melvin for The Shape of Water 90% Winner [called it]
  2. Nathan Crowley, Gary Fettis for Dunkirk/Dennis Gassner, Alessandra Querzola for Blade Runner 2049 65%
  3. –tie
  4. Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer for Darkest Hour 50%
  5. Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer for Beauty and the Beast 30%

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24 hours left to make your Oscar predictions! See our current odds

March 3, 2018

24 hours left to make your Oscar predictions! See our current odds

Want to make your predictions for the Oscar winners? They are due by noon Pacific time, Sunday March 4th (so I can get our final predictions out to the world before the show).

I’m going to include in this post where we are at time of writing, but I do expect the final numbers will be different. My intuition is that the more people who play, the more accurate we are as a group (and we’ve been pretty accurate in the past), so feel free to let people know about it!

Here are the links:

BOPMadness (Bufo’s Oscar Prediction Madness) 2018 Part 1:

https://1drv.ms/xs/s!AvkcopEaVSeijmSsbx6vG5Gcl96f?wdFormId=%7BE5793882%2D0660%2D4E4D%2DAB01%2DC36113A0B277%7D

BOPMadness (Bufo’s Oscar Prediction Madness) 2018 Part 2:

https://1drv.ms/xs/s!AvkcopEaVSeijmYLK7pAZBjqYs8w?wdFormId=%7BAF2B6048%2DE94B%2D426C%2DA3FF%2D5FF981F1FB14%7D

Please complete both parts, and make a guess for every nominee in every category. That‚Äôs what makes this work: data!¬†ūüôā¬†Also, use each number only once‚Ķif it is a five-nominee category, don‚Äôt give two nominees both the number 5. If you do‚ĶI guess I‚Äôll have to randomize which one is which, but please use your intuition.

You don‚Äôt need to sign up or anything, just play.¬†ūüôā¬†I do require an e-mail address (which I use only for BOPMadness communications and do not share with the public) and I do require that you make guesses about every nominee in every category‚Ķthe more answers, I think the better we should do (based on the wisdom of crowds).


Our odds at time of writing:

Best Picture: Call Me by Your Name Best Picture: Darkest Hour Best Picture: Dunkirk Best Picture: Get Out Best Picture: Lady Bird Best Picture: Phantom Thread Best Picture: The Post Best Picture: The Shape of Water Best Picture: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
33% 28% 69% 83% 58% 28% 22% 86% 92%
Lead Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis in Phantom Thread Lead Actor: Daniel Kaluuya in Get Out Lead Actor: Denzel Washington in Roman J. Israel, Esq. Lead Actor: Gary Oldman in Darkest Hour Lead Actor: Timothee Chalomet in Call Me by Your Name
55% 65% 30% 100% 50%
Lead Actress: Frances McDormand in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri Lead Actress: Margot Robbie in I, Tonya Lead Actress: Meryl Streep in The Post Lead Actress: Sally Hawkins in The Shape of Water Lead Actress: Saoirse Ronan in Lady Bird
100% 40% 20% 75% 65%
Supporting Actress: Allison Janney in I, Tonya Supporting Actress: Laurie Metcalf in Lady Bird Supporting Actress: Lesley Manville in Phantom Thread Supporting Actress: Mary J. Blige in Mudbound Supporting Actress: Octavia Spencer in The Shape of Water
95% 85% 40% 45% 35%
Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer in All the Money in the World Supporting Actor: Richard Jenkins in The Shape of Water Supporting Actor: Sam Rockwell in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri Supporting Actor: Willem Dafoe in The Florida Project Supporting Actor: Woody Harrelson in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
55% 50% 100% 65% 30%
Directing: Christopher Nolan for Dunkirk Directing: Greta Gerwig for Lady Bird Directing: Guillermo del Toro for The Shape of Water Directing: Jordan Peele for Get Out Directing: Paul Thomas Anderson for Phantom Thread
50% 65% 100% 65% 20%
Original Screenplay: Jordan Peele for Get Out Original Screenplay: Greta Gerwig for Lady Bird Original Screenplay: Kumail Nanjiani, Emily V. Gordon for The Big Sick Original Screenplay: Guillermo del Toro, Vanessa Taylor for The Shape of Water Original Screenplay: Martin McDonagh for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
95% 70% 25% 35% 75%
Adapted Screenplay: James Ivory for Call Me by Your Name Adapted Screenplay: Scott Frank, James Mangold, Michael Green for Logan Adapted Screenplay: Aaron Sorkin for Molly’s Game Adapted Screenplay: Dee Rees, Virgil Williams for Mudbound Adapted Screenplay: Scott Neustadter, Michael H. Weber for The Disaster Artist
100% 35% 60% 75% 30%
Cinematography: Roger Deakins for Blade Runner 2049 Cinematography: Bruno Delbonnel for the Darkest Hour Cinematography: Hoyte Van Hoytema for Dunkirk Cinematography: Rachel Morrison for Mudbound Cinematography: Dan Laustsen for The Shape of Water
70% 35% 75% 55% 65%
Costume: Jacqueline Durran for Beauty and the Beast Costume: Jacqueline Durran for Darkest Hour Costume: Mark Bridges for Phantom Thread Costume: Luis Sequiera for The Shape of Water Costume: Consolata Boyle for Victoria & Abdul
45% 40% 90% 75% 50%
Sound Mixing: Tim Cavigan, Mary H. Ellis, Julian Slater for Baby Driver Sound Mixing: Ron Bartlett, Doug Hemphill, Mac Ruth for Blade Runner 2049 Sound Mixing: Gregg Landaker, Gary Rizzo, Mark Weingarten for Dunkirk Sound Mixing: Michael Semanick, David Parker, Stuart Wilson, Ren Klyce for Star Wars: The Last Jedi Sound Mixing: Christian T. Cooke, Glen Gauthier, Brad Zoern for The Shape of Water
60% 45% 95% 50% 50%
Sound Editing: Julian Slater for Baby Driver Sound Editing: Mark A. Mangini, Theo Green for Blade Runner 2049 Sound Editing: Richard King, Alex Gibson for Dunkirk Sound Editing: Matthew Wood, Ren Klyce for Star Wars: The Last Jedi Sound Editing: Nathan Robitaille, Nelson Ferreira for The Shape of Water
60% 50% 95% 60% 35%
Film Editing: Paul Machliss, Jonathan Amos for Baby Driver Film Editing: Lee Smith for Dunkirk Film Editing: Tatiana S. Riegel for I, Tonya Film Editing: Sidney Wolinsky for The Shape of Water Film Editing: Jon Gregory for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
55% 95% 40% 60% 50%
Visual Effects: John Nelson, Gerd Nefzer, Paul Lambert, Richard R. Hoover for Blade Runner 2049 Visual Effects: Christopher Townsend, Guy Williams, Jonathan Fawkner, Daniel Sudnick for Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 Visual Effects: Stephen Rosenbaum,
Jeff White, Scott Benza, Michael Meinardus for Kong: Skull Island
Visual Effects: Ben Morris, Michael Mulholland, Neal Scanlan, Chris Corbould for Star Wars: The Last Jedi Visual Effects: Joe Letteri, Daniel Barrett, Dan Lemmon, Joel Whist for War for the Planet of the Apes
65% 65% 30% 70% 70%
Makeup and Hairstyling: Kazuhiro Tsuji, David Mainowski, Lucy Sibbick for Darkest Hour Makeup and Hairstyling: Daniel Phillips, Louis Sheppard for Victoria & Abdul Makeup and Hairstyling: Arjen Tuiten for Wonder
100% 42% 58%
Original Song: Sufjan Stevens for “Mystery of Love” from Call Me by Your Name Original Song: Kristen Anderson-Lopez, Robert Lopez for “Remember Me” from Coco Original Song: Common, Diane Warren for “Stand Up for Something” from Marshall Original Song: Raphael Saadiq, Mary J. Blige, Taura Stinson for “Mighty River” from Mudbound Original Song: Benj Pasek, Justin Paul for “This Is Me” from The Greatest Showman
5% 85% 40% 45% 75%
Original Song: Sufjan Stevens for “Mystery of Love” from Call Me by Your Name2 Original Score: Hans Zimmer for Dunkirk Original Score: Johnny Greenwood for Phantom Thread Original Score: John Williams for Star Wars: The Last Jedi Original Score: Alexandre Desplat for The Shape of Water Original Score: Carter Burwell for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
55% 75% 40% 40% 100% 45%
Animated Short: Glen Keane, Kobe Bryant for Dear Basketball Animated Short: Victor Caire, Gabriel Grapperon for Garden Party Animated Short: Dave Mullins, Dana Murray for Lou Animated Short: Max Porter, Ru Kuwahata for Negative Space Animated Short: Jakob Schuh, Jan Lachauer for Revolting Rhymes Part One
85% 55% 45% 55% 60%
Live Action Short: Reed Van Dyk for DeKalb Elementary Live Action Short: Kevin Wilson Jr. for My Nephew Emmett Live Action Short: Derin Seale, Josh Lawson for The Eleven O’Clock Live Action Short: Chris Overton, Rachel Shenton for The Silent Child Live Action Short: Katja Benrath, Tobias Rosen for Watu Wote: All of Us
80% 35% 50% 70% 65%

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