Archive for the ‘BOPMadness’ Category

BOPMadness (Bufo’s Oscar Prediction Madness) 2017 – results

March 5, 2017

BOPMadness (Bufo’s Oscar Prediction Madness) 2017 – results

What an interesting Oscar year!

I am going to talk a bit about what happened at the end of the show, but let’s start with how the team did.

The year before we had scored a 90% overall, and that’s not atypical. This year, we were considerably below that at 77%.

While it’s up to other people to determine if something is an excuse or not, I think there was a clear contributing factor to the decline. At least, I can see the impact in my own success rate.

This really was a transition year in how the Academy voted. They had deliberately changed the rules in order to reform the voting process (in part, with the hope of seeing the results be more diverse).

I didn’t take that into account enough. I was still thinking about how the “old Academy” would vote, rather than revising that.

In resulted in some patterns not repeating.

There has typically been a correlation between Best Picture and Film Editing, for example, and that didn’t happen this year.

Best Picture, Directing, and Film Editing went to three different movies (Moonlight, La La Land, Hacksaw Ridge, respectively).

Like many people, I’m a bit surprised to be describing Suicide Squad as an Oscar-winning movie (even though, unlike many people, I did like it). I think the old Academy would likely have gone for the more mainstream movie (A Man Called Ove), and I’ve been pretty good at predicting those Maven categories in the past.

However, that doesn’t mean we did poorly. We called most of the categories, and the only Big Six category we missed was Best Picture:

Category Team Called it
Adapted Screenplay Moonlight 76% Yes
Anim Feature Zootopia 92% Yes
Cinematography La La Land 88% Yes
Directing La La Land 90% Yes
Foreign Film The Salesman 84% Yes
Lead Actor Affleck 92% Yes
Lead Actress Emma Stone 92% Yes
Live Short Sing 66% Yes
Original Screenplay Manchester by the Sea 80% Yes
Production Design La La Land 86% Yes
Score La La Land 90% Yes
Song City of Stars: La La Land 87% Yes
Supp Actor Ali 88% Yes
Supp Actress Davis 99% Yes
Visual Effects The Jungle Book 79% Yes
Anim Short Piper 66% No
BP Moonlight 67% No
Costume Fantastic Beasts 56% No
Doc Feature O.J.: Made in America 66% No
Doc Short The White Helmets 57% No
Film Editing Hacksaw Ridge 61% No
Makeup Suicide Squad 70% No
Sound Editing Arrival 62% No
Sound Mixing Hacksaw Ridge 70% No

The team hit 68% on the Big Six, 81% on the Incredibly Difficult Maven section, and that 77% overall.

Our top Overall scorer did get 90%…way to go! I will let individuals know how they did, and if you’d like your win noted by name in this blog, just let me know.

Thanks to everybody who played! My guess is that we’ll do better next year.

I used Google Forms this year…and that didn’t work well. It was a nice interface for people entering (although it could use more robust validation), but the underlying Google Sheet was set up in an inefficient way. I had to transpose the columns and rows and do quite a bit of work to get results, which is part of why this is a week later. ūüôā

Now, let’s talk that Best Picture mix-up.

A quick summary:

Warren Beatty and Faye Dunaway were set to announce the Best Picture. They had starred in Bonnie and Clyde roughly 40 years ago. Warren Beatty had been nominated for Best Picture (as a producer of that movie…he was also nominated for Best Picture other times).

They were handed the envelope containing the winner by the accountants (there are two) from Price Waterhouse Coopers.

They were given the wrong envelope.

They were given a back-up envelope for Best Actress (which had been won by Emma Stone for La La Land). There are two envelopes for each category, since people can come from two sides of the stage, as I understand it.

Warren Beatty opened the envelope. I’ve watched that repeatedly. It seems clear to me what happens.

He opens it, and sees that it says, “Emma Stone, La La Land”. He hesitates.

I think many viewers may not realize that the Producers’ names are on the Best Picture winning card. Remember, Warren Beatty has been nominated as a Producer of a Best Picture nominee.

He probably goes through this process: “Was Emma Stone one of the Producers of La La Land? She can’t have been the only Producer.”

He literally looks into the envelope again, apparently checking to see if there is another winners’ card.

Faye Dunaway appears to think he has been Seacresting it…dragging it out for dramatic effect. She says, “You’re impossible!” He hands her the card (and he has a smile on his face), and she loudly announces La La Land as the winner.

The Producers of La La Land go up…and even start going through their thank you speeches. I haven’t timed it, but I’m reasonably comfortable in saying there was at least thirty seconds from the time the “winner” was announced until a correction was made.

Eventually, a member of the Oscar broadcast team (not one of the accountants) comes on stage and explains what happened.

One of the Producers of La La Land magnanimously explains the error, even taking (snatching would not be inaccurate) the actual winning card and showing it to the audience.

I definitely feel sorry for both Moonlight and La La Land for the way this happened.

So, who is at fault?

I would say that there is no question that PWC deserves a huge piece of the blame (and arguably, really all of it).

Their system failed.

The two accountants are supposed to have all of the winners memorized. As soon as the wrong winner was announced, one of them (and the Stage Manager has backed this up) should have stopped it and explained…before the Producers got to the stage.

Obviously, the wrong envelope shouldn’t have been given…and one question for me on that (and I understand performance improvement) is why Emma Stone’s envelope was even still available. As soon as a category is announced, the duplicate card (I understand that the winner often keeps the card) should be removed from access. If they don’t want to destroy it because of its historical value, put it in a locked dropbox.

There was clearly a failure on the part of one of the accountants and to some extent, on both, but in my opinion, it wouldn’t have been too difficult to create a system that would have been robust enough to make that risk very small indeed.

Fortunately, they should be able to revamp the system to prevent this same type of error in the future.

I can’t blame Warren Beatty…even for handing Faye Dunaway the envelope. I don’t think he was intentionally setting her up, as Jimmy Kimmel (jokingly?) suggested. I can’t blame Faye Dunaway: there would have been a lot of energy at that point after the delay, and anybody could jump at the movie name they see.

Well, there you go! I thought it was a fascinating year, and while that error will dominate in many people’s memories, the (arguably successful) impact of the Academy’s changes will have a bigger effect in the future.

Join thousands of readers and try the free The Measured Circle magazine at Flipboard !

All aboard our new The Measured Circle’s Geek Time Trip at The History Project! Join the TMCGTT Timeblazers!

This post by Bufo Calvin originally appeared in the The Measured Circle blog. To support this or other blogs/organizations, buy Amazon Gift Cards from a link on the site, then use those to buy your items. There will be no cost to you, and a benefit to them.

 

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BOPMadness 2017 Oscar Predictions

February 26, 2017

BOPMadness 2017 Oscar Predictions

This is it!

Submissions are closed for BOPMadness (Bufo’s Oscar Prediction Madness) 2017!

We make our (aggregate) predictions public before the ceremony, so you can see how we do.

Here they are by category:

Email Address Team Predicted Winner Winner
Adapted Screenplay Arrival 40%
Adapted Screenplay Fences 64%
Adapted Screenplay Hidden Figures 78% X
Adapted Screenplay Lion 52%
Adapted Screenplay Moonlight 76%  X
Anim Feature Kubo 48%
Anim Feature Moana 70%
Anim Feature My Life as a Zucchini 36%
Anim Feature The Red Turtle 58%
Anim Feature Zootopia 92% X  X
Anim Short Blind Vaysha 54%
Anim Short Borrowed Time 52%
Anim Short Pear Cider and Cigarette 56%
Anim Short Pearl 72% X
Anim Short Piper 66%  X
BP Arrival 41%
BP Fences 57%
BP Hacksaw Ridge 29%
BP Hell or High Water 32%
BP Hidden Figures 69%
BP La La Land 91% X
BP Lion 63%
BP Manchester by the Sea 63%
BP Moonlight 73%  X
Cinematography Arrival 52%
Cinematography La La Land 88% X  X
Cinematography Lion 64%
Cinematography Moonlight 60%
Cinematography Silence 44%
Costume Allied 34%
Costume Fantastic Beasts 56%  X
Costume Florence Foster Jenkins 52%
Costume Jackie 88% X
Costume La La Land 72%
Directing Hacksaw Ridge 36%
Directing La La Land 90% X  X
Directing Manchester by the Sea 66%
Directing Moonlight 70%
Directing Villeneuve 42%
Doc Feature 13th 58%
Doc Feature Fire at Sea 60%
Doc Feature I Am Not Your Negro 76% X
Doc Feature Life, Animated 46%
Doc Feature O.J.: Made in America 66% X
Doc Short 4.1 Mile 68% X
Doc Short Extremis 58%
Doc Short Joe’s Violin 58%
Doc Short The White Helmets 62%  X
Doc Short Watani: My Homeland 60%
Film Editing Arrival 56%
Film Editing Hacksaw Ridge 62%  X
Film Editing Hell or High Water 46%
Film Editing La La Land 82% X
Film Editing Moonlight 56%
Foreign Film A Man Called Ove 54%
Foreign Film Land of Mine 48%
Foreign Film Tanna 46%
Foreign Film The Salesman 84% X  X
Foreign Film Toni Erdmann 66%
Lead Actor Affleck 92% X  X
Lead Actor Andrew Garfield 34%
Lead Actor Denzel Washington 76%
Lead Actor Ryan Gosling 62%
Lead Actor Viggo Mortensen 36%
Lead Actress Emma Stone 92% X  X
Lead Actress Huppert 60%
Lead Actress Meryl Streep 38%
Lead Actress Natalie Portman 62%
Lead Actress Ruth Negga 50%
Live Short Ennemis Interieurs 60%
Live Short La Femme et le TGV 48%
Live Short Silent Nights 62%
Live Short Sing 66% X  X
Live Short Timecode 64%
Makeup A Man Called Ove 57%
Makeup Star Trek Beyond 73% X
Makeup Suicide Squad 70%  X
Original Screenplay 20th Century Women 34%
Original Screenplay Hell or High Water 48%
Original Screenplay La La Land 74%
Original Screenplay Manchester by the Sea 80% X  X
Original Screenplay The Lobster 48%
Production Design Arrival 66%
Production Design Fantastic Beasts 58%
Production Design Hail, Caesar! 54%
Production Design La La Land 86% X  X
Production Design Passengers 36%
Score Jackie 58%
Score La La Land 90% X  X
Score Lion 60%
Score Moonlight 66%
Score Passengers 30%
Song Audition (The Fools Who Dream): La La Land 50%
Song Can’t Stop the Feeling: Trolls 68%
Song City of Stars: La La Land 88% X  X
Song How Far I’ll Go: Moana 58%
Song The Empty Chair: Jim The James Foley 36%
Sound Editing Arrival 62%  X
Sound Editing Deepwater Horizon 48%
Sound Editing Hacksaw Ridge 74% X
Sound Editing La La Land 72%
Sound Editing Sully 44%
Sound Mixing 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi (disqualified) 30%
Sound Mixing Arrival 64%
Sound Mixing Hacksaw Ridge 70%  X
Sound Mixing La La Land 86% X
Sound Mixing Rogue One: A Star Wars Story 50%
Supp Actor Ali 88% X  X
Supp Actor Dev Patel 78%
Supp Actor Jeff Bridges 56%
Supp Actor Lucas Hedges 46%
Supp Actor Michael Shannon 38%
Supp Actress Davis 100% X  X
Supp Actress Michelle Williams 62%
Supp Actress Naomie Harris 54%
Supp Actress Nicole Kidman 44%
Supp Actress Octavia Spencer 52%
Visual Effects Deepwater Horizon 38%
Visual Effects Doctor Strange 54%
Visual Effects Kubo and the Two Strings 48%
Visual Effects Rogue One: A Star Wars Story 84% X
Visual Effects The Jungle Book 80%  X

and here they are by percent chance of winning, with the surest things on the top and the longest shots on the bottom:

Email Address Team Predicted Winner Winner
Supp Actress Davis 100% X
Anim Feature Zootopia 92% X
Lead Actor Affleck 92% X
Lead Actress Emma Stone 92% X
BP La La Land 91% X
Directing La La Land 90% X
Score La La Land 90% X
Cinematography La La Land 88% X
Costume Jackie 88% X
Song City of Stars: La La Land 88% X
Supp Actor Ali 88% X
Production Design La La Land 86% X
Sound Mixing La La Land 86% X
Foreign Film The Salesman 84% X
Visual Effects Rogue One: A Star Wars Story 84% X
Film Editing La La Land 82% X
Original Screenplay Manchester by the Sea 80% X
Visual Effects The Jungle Book 80%
Adapted Screenplay Hidden Figures 78% X
Supp Actor Dev Patel 78%
Adapted Screenplay Moonlight 76%
Doc Feature I Am Not Your Negro 76% X
Lead Actor Denzel Washington 76%
Original Screenplay La La Land 74%
Sound Editing Hacksaw Ridge 74% X
BP Moonlight 73%
Makeup Star Trek Beyond 73% X
Anim Short Pearl 72% X
Costume La La Land 72%
Sound Editing La La Land 72%
Anim Feature Moana 70%
Directing Moonlight 70%
Makeup Suicide Squad 70%
Sound Mixing Hacksaw Ridge 70%
BP Hidden Figures 69%
Doc Short 4.1 Miles 68% X
Song Can’t Stop the Feeling: Trolls 68%
Anim Short Piper 66%
Directing Manchester by the Sea 66%
Doc Feature O.J.: Made in America 66%
Foreign Film Toni Erdmann 66%
Live Short Sing 66% X
Production Design Arrival 66%
Score Moonlight 66%
Adapted Screenplay Fences 64%
Cinematography Lion 64%
Live Short Timecode 64%
Sound Mixing Arrival 64%
BP Lion 63%
BP Manchester by the Sea 63%
Doc Short The White Helmets 62%
Film Editing Hacksaw Ridge 62%
Lead Actor Ryan Gosling 62%
Lead Actress Natalie Portman 62%
Live Short Silent Nights 62%
Sound Editing Arrival 62%
Supp Actress Michelle Williams 62%
Cinematography Moonlight 60%
Doc Feature Fire at Sea 60%
Doc Short Watani: My Homeland 60%
Lead Actress Huppert 60%
Live Short Ennemis Interieurs 60%
Score Lion 60%
Anim Feature The Red Turtle 58%
Doc Feature 13th 58%
Doc Short Extremis 58%
Doc Short Joe’s Violin 58%
Production Design Fantastic Beasts 58%
Score Jackie 58%
Song How Far I’ll Go: Moana 58%
BP Fences 57%
Makeup A Man Called Ove 57%
Anim Short Pear Cider and Cigarette 56%
Costume Fantastic Beasts 56%
Film Editing Arrival 56%
Film Editing Moonlight 56%
Supp Actor Jeff Bridges 56%
Anim Short Blind Vaysha 54%
Foreign Film A Man Called Ove 54%
Production Design Hail, Caesar! 54%
Supp Actress Naomie Harris 54%
Visual Effects Doctor Strange 54%
Adapted Screenplay Lion 52%
Anim Short Borrowed Time 52%
Cinematography Arrival 52%
Costume Florence Foster Jenkins 52%
Supp Actress Octavia Spencer 52%
Lead Actress Ruth Negga 50%
Song Audition (The Fools Who Dream): La La Land 50%
Sound Mixing Rogue One: A Star Wars Story 50%
Anim Feature Kubo 48%
Foreign Film Land of Mine 48%
Live Short La Femme et le TGV 48%
Original Screenplay Hell or High Water 48%
Original Screenplay The Lobster 48%
Sound Editing Deepwater Horizon 48%
Visual Effects Kubo and the Two Strings 48%
Doc Feature Life, Animated 46%
Film Editing Hell or High Water 46%
Foreign Film Tanna 46%
Supp Actor Lucas Hedges 46%
Cinematography Silence 44%
Sound Editing Sully 44%
Supp Actress Nicole Kidman 44%
Directing Villeneuve 42%
BP Arrival 41%
Adapted Screenplay Arrival 40%
Lead Actress Meryl Streep 38%
Supp Actor Michael Shannon 38%
Visual Effects Deepwater Horizon 38%
Anim Feature My Life as a Zucchini 36%
Directing Hacksaw Ridge 36%
Lead Actor Viggo Mortensen 36%
Production Design Passengers 36%
Song The Empty Chair: Jim The James Foley 36%
Costume Allied 34%
Lead Actor Andrew Garfield 34%
Original Screenplay 20th Century Women 34%
BP Hell or High Water 32%
Score Passengers 30%
Sound Mixing 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi (disqualified) 30%
BP Hacksaw Ridge 29%

Thanks to everybody who played! I’ll update this with the winners, and get the individual results to the players in the next few days.

We’ll know soon!

See you in the movies!

Join thousands of readers and try the free The Measured Circle magazine at Flipboard !

All aboard our new The Measured Circle’s Geek Time Trip at The History Project! Join the TMCGTT Timeblazers!

This post by Bufo Calvin originally appeared in the The Measured Circle blog. To support this or other blogs/organizations, buy Amazon Gift Cards from a link on the site, then use those to buy your items. There will be no cost to you, and a benefit to them.

The Oscars are one week away! Surest things and longest shots

February 20, 2017

The Oscars are one week away! Surest things and longest shots

We are one week away from the Oscars, and I thought I’d check in with how¬†the BOPMadness (Bufo’s Oscar Prediction Madness) predictions were shaping up so far.

These certainly may change: if you want to make predictions, you still can by using this Google form:

https://goo.gl/forms/NqSNqNS6Y3ZS4Q232

You can also see all of the aggregate predictions there, but I thought I’d tease it by giving you the surest things and the longest shots at this point. We rank every nominee in every category, but here are those standouts.

So far, there are four nominees that we rank at 100% probability of winning…every player so far has given them the top possible score:

  • Emma Stone for Actress in a Leading Role for La La Land
  • Viola Davis for Actress in a Supporting Role for Fences
  • Cinematography for La La Land (Linus Sandgren)
  • Sound Mixing for La La Land (Andy Nelson, Ai-Ling Lee, Steve A. Morrow)

Those are the surest shots. That could change as more players (including you?) send in predictions, but they probably will still be strong contenders.

At the other end are two nominees tied for least likely. To be clear, that doesn’t mean that they aren’t good or worthy or even that they won’t win, but just that at this point, we have in the aggregate given them the lowest probability…a 23% chance of taking their categories:

  • Sound Mixing for 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi (Greg P. Russell, Gary Summers, Jeffrey J. Haboush, Mac Ruth)
  • Music (Original Score) for Passengers (Thomas Newman)

Think the wisdom of the group is wrong…or agree with it? Have other guesses you want to make? Please feel free to play at that Google form! The more the merrier, and possibly, we’ll beat last year’s 90% overall score! You can also see our current predictions for all of the categories…

See you in the movies!

Join thousands of readers and try the free The Measured Circle magazine at Flipboard !

All aboard our new The Measured Circle’s Geek Time Trip at The History Project! Join the TMCGTT Timeblazers!

This post by Bufo Calvin originally appeared in the The Measured Circle blog. To support this or other blogs/organizations, buy Amazon Gift Cards from a link on the site, then use those to buy your items. There will be no cost to you, and a benefit to them.

BOPMadness 2017! Bufo’s Oscar Prediction Madness: make your own & see what we say

February 12, 2017

BOPMadness 2017! Bufo’s Oscar Prediction Madness: make your own & see what we say

For more than two decades, I’ve been doing an Oscar prediction contest. We only play for that most valuable of all human possessions…braggin’ rights. ūüėČ I’ve developed a particular way that we do it, and partially as a result of that, we tend to do quite well as a group in predictions…last year, we scored a 90% overall.

I’m doing it a bit differently this year (just in terms of process), which I think will make it easier for people to do and for them to see the results: I’m using a Google form:

https://goo.gl/forms/NqSNqNS6Y3ZS4Q232

You don’t need to sign up or anything, just play. ūüôā It does require an e-mail address (that’s the only way I can have it send you your guesses, if you want), and I do require that you make guesses about every nominee in every category…the more answers, I think the better we should do (based on the wisdom of crowds).

Feel free to spread the word! There’s only a week left. ūüėČ

Join thousands of readers and try the free The Measured Circle magazine at Flipboard !

All aboard our new The Measured Circle’s Geek Time Trip at The History Project! Join the TMCGTT Timeblazers!

This post by Bufo Calvin originally appeared in the The Measured Circle blog. To support this or other blogs/organizations, buy Amazon Gift Cards from a link on the site, then use those to buy your items. There will be no cost to you, and a benefit to them.

2016 BOPMadness (Bufo’s Oscar Prediction Madness) predictions! (updated wih results)

February 28, 2016

2016 BOPMadness (Bufo’s Oscar Prediction Madness) predictions! (updated wih results)

It’s almost time for the Oscars!

Thanks to everyone who made predictions in our annual BOPMadness!

Here are our group predictions, a couacple of hours before the first envelope is opened on stage:

Adapted Screenplay: WINNER: The Big Short (5 points…predicted)

Adapted Screenplay

Animated Short: WINNER: Bear Story (3 points)

Animated Short

Animated Feature: WINNER: Inside Out (5 points…predicted)

Animated Feature

Best Picture: WINNER: Spotlight (8 points)

Best Picture

Cinematography: WINNER: The Revenant (5 points…predicted)

Cinematography

Costume: WINNER: Mad Max: Fury Road (5 points…predicted)

Costume

Director: Alejande Gonzalez: WINNER: The Revenant (5 points…predicted)

Director

Documentary Feature: WINNER: Amy (5 points…predicted)

Documentary Feature

Documentary Short: WINNER: A Girl in the River (4.5 points…tie prediction)

Documentary Short

Film Editing: WINNER: Mad Max: Fury Road (4 points)

Film Editing

Foreign Language Film: WINNER: Son of Saul (5 points…predicted)

Foreign Language Film

Hair and Makeup: WINNER: Mad Max: Fury Road (3 points…predicted)

Hair and Makeup

Lead Actor: WINNER: Leonardo DiCaprio (5 points…predicted)

Lead Actor

Lead Actress: WINNER: Brie Larson (5 points…predicted)

Lead Actress

Live Action Short: WINNER: Stutterer (3 points)

Live Action Short

Original Screenplay: WINNER: Spotlight (5 points…predicted)

Original Screenplay

Production Design: WINNER: Mad Max: Fury Road (5 points…predicted)

Production Design

Score: WINNER: The Hateful Eight¬†(5 points…predicted)

Score

Song

Song

Sound Editing: WINNER: Mad Max: Fury Road (5 points…predicted)

Sound Editing

Sound Mixing: Mad Max: Fury Road (5 points…predicted)

Sound Mixing

Supporting Actor: WINNER: Mark Rylance (4 points)

Supporting Actor

Supporting Actress: WINNER: Alicia Vikander (5 points…predicted)

Supporting Actress

Visual Effects: WINNER: Ex Machina (1 point)

Visual Effects

We’ll check back with winners…enjoy the show, and good luck!

Join thousands of readers and try the free The Measured Circle magazine at Flipboard

This post by Bufo Calvin originally appeared in the  The Measured Circle blog. To support this or other blogs/organizations, buy  Amazon Gift Cards from a link on the site, then use those to buy your items. There will be no cost to you, and a benefit to them.

2016 BOPMadness (Bufo’s Oscar Prediction Madness)

February 17, 2016

2016 BOPMadness (Bufo’s Oscar Prediction Madness)

For more than twenty years, I’ve been doing an Oscar prediction contest.

Important note: there is no fee to play the  game, and we only play for that most valuable of human possessions…bragging rights. 

We do ours a bit differently than most. You rank every nominee, and then you get the number of points you assigned to the winner.

For example, there are five nominees for Actor in a Leading Role. You would assign the one you thought the Academy was most likely to pick (not necessarily the one you thought most deserved it) with a 5. Your second most likely would be a 4, and so on.

As we did last year, we are using SurveyMonkey, rather than Excel.

That means you can play anonymously, if you prefer…we also think many people may find it easier.

There are three surveys (we are currently limited to no more than ten questions per survey):

Big Six and Screenwriting:

https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/JFPH3V7

Design and Appearance:

https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/CNKKMZ5

Whole Movies and Music

https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/JQKBKT8

If you would like to be recognized as a winner of the Big Six (the acting awards, Best Picture, and Best Director), the Incredibly Difficult Maven Section (everything else), and/or Overall, you’ll have the opportunity at the site to enter your name (that will not be public). If you’d like to receive future communications about BOPMadness, you can also enter your e-mail address there (again, that will not be public).

If you have any questions, you can comment on this post. If you’d like your comment to remain private, please let me know in the comment.

We will post the group predictions here before the Oscar ceremony on Sunday, February 28th.

The more people who play, the more accurate we tend to be…feel free to share this with anyone you think would like to participate.

See you in the movies!

Join thousands of readers and try the free The Measured Circle magazine at Flipboard

This post by Bufo Calvin originally appeared in the  The Measured Circle blog. To support this or other blogs/organizations, buy  Amazon Gift Cards from a link on the site, then use those to buy your items. There will be no cost to you, and a benefit to them.

2016 Oscar noms

January 14, 2016

2016 Oscar noms

This is very preliminary, almost live-blogging. ūüôā I’ll call out the geeky nominees as I catch them, sometimes shortening the names. After the announcements, I’ll formalize it more and add some comments.

First, some comments before the announcements. This could be a breakthrough year with geek-friendly (gf) movies getting nominations…or not. ūüėČ

  • Could we have four Best Picture nominees that are gf? That’s possible: The Martian; Mad Max: Fury Road; Star Wars: The Force Awakens; and Inside Out. Actually, Steve Jobs is also possible…so we could see half of the nominees gf. I think people may be disappointed in the lack of prestige noms for Mad Max, but pleased to see Star Wars nominated. Even more outside chances: Ex Machina; Macbeth…and I’m going to say it, Anomalisa
  • Acting noms for gf movies are rare, but there are a few possibilities here. Matt Damon for the Martian; Michael Fassbender for Steve Jobs; Ian McKellan for Mr. Holmes are all possible for Best Actor…I don’t see a gf Best Actress nom as likely. However, I think that’s in part because of ¬†the possibility of putting gf acting into Supporting acting noms: Charlize Theron for Mad Max (and people would complain that it was a lead role); Daisy Ridley for Star Wars (and even louder complaints…J.J. Abrams has called her the main character); Alicia Vikander for Ex Machina (I think this is unlikely…I think she’ll be nominated for Best for The Danish Girl, and not here); Marion Cotillard for Macbeth; Kate Winslet for Steve Jobs (which seems very likely); Harrison Ford for Star Wars (I would consider this Supporting…it would be interesting to see two 1970s leads, Ford and Stallone, competing as Supporting); Seth Rogen for Steve Jobs; there are a few other Star Wars possibilities: Oscar Isaac, Adam Driver, and John Boyega…it Boyega got nominated and Ridley didn’t, it would be a tweetstorm. Many actors with geek cred will be nominated, because nowadays, that’s pretty much everybody ūüėČ
  • Screenplay sometimes widens the net…and I think there is an outside possibility of Ex Machina being nominated there. Steve Jobs for sure for adapted…and there may be some snarky suggestions that Star Wars: The Force Awakens should have been an adapted screenplay nom ūüėČ ; ¬†Inside Out may also get a nom
  • There will be some other gf noms…and the song category often gets us some otherwise headscratchers
  • Also worth noting: streaming services may get prestige noms…Netflix for Beasts of No Nation and Amazon for Chi-Raq

Getting close to the noms!

First thoughts after the announcements: I’ll complete the noms list below shortly…

  • Big love for Mad Max! Best Picture and Best Director!
  • People may be disappointed in the relative lack of Star Wars noms, although it did get a few
  • Ex Machina got some noms, including Original Screenplay
  • As I suggested above: acting in gf movies doesn’t tend to get noms
  • Nothing for the streamers. Update: Winter on Fire lists itself as being from Netflix, and was nominated for documentary feature
  • Steve Jobs didn’t get a screenplay nom
  • Snubbed: I’m surprised that these gf movies didn’t get any noms, not even technical or special effects
    • Jurassic World
    • Avengers: Age of Ultron
    • The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 2 (I really thought this could get a hair/makeup nom)
  • Beyond the geek: outside of Jennifer Lawrence (who gets awards and is our longest running Box Office MVP…one could argue that she may be the best person ever at making movies, in terms of combining respect and popular appeal), not much joy for Joy; the lack of diversity hashtags (for acting noms especially) will be flying! If you want to get a Best Actress nom, look for a movie with a one word title…one word and a number is also okay ūüėČ

Best Original Song

  • 50 Shades of Grey |¬†“Earned It” |¬†The Weeknd, Belly, Stephan Moccio
  • Racing Extinction |¬†“Manta Ray” |¬†J. Ralph, Antony Hegarty
  • Youth |¬†“Simple Song #3″|¬†David Lang
  • The Hunting Ground |¬†“Til It Happens to You” | Diane Warren, Lady Gaga
  • “Writing’s On The Wall” |¬†Sam Smith, James Napier |¬†Spectre (gf)

SFX (Special Effects)

  • Andrew Whitehurst, Paul Norris, Mark Williams Ardington, Sara Bennett for Ex Machina gf
  • Andrew Jackson, Tom Wood, Dan Oliver, Andy Williams for Mad Max: Fury Road gf
  • Richard Stammers, Anders Langlands, Chris Lawrence, Steven Warner for The Martian gf
  • Richard McBride, Matt Shumway, Jason Smith, Cameron Waldbauer for The Revenant
  • Roger Guyett, Pat Tubach, Neal Scanlan, Chris Corbould for Star Wars: The Force Awakens gf

Doc Short

  • David Darg, Bryn Mooser for Body Team 12
  • Courtney Marsh, Jerry Franck for War Within the Walls
  • Adam Benzine for Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah
  • Sharmeen Obaid-Chinoy for A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness
  • Dee Hibbert-Jones, Nomi Talisman for Last Day of Freedom

Doc Feature

  • Asif Kapadia, James Gay-Rees for Amy
  • Matthew Heineman, Tom Yellin for Cartel Land
  • Joshua Oppenheimer, Signe Byrge S√łrensen The Look of Silence
  • Liz Garbus, Amy Hobby, Justin Wilkes for What Happened, Miss Simone?
  • Evgeny Afineevsky, Den Tolmor for Winter on Fire

Editing

  • Hank Corwin for The Big Short
  • Margaret Sixel for Mad Max: Fury Road gf
  • Stephen Mirrione for The Revenant
  • Tom McArdle for Spotlight
  • Maryann Brandon for Star Wars: The Force Awakens gf

Sound Mixing

  • Chris Jenkins, Gregg Rudloff, Ben Osmo for Mad Max: Fury Road gf
  • Paul Massey, Mark Taylor, Mac Ruth for The Martian gf
  • Jon Taylor, Frank A. Monta√Īo, Randy Thom, Chris Duesterdiek for The Revenant
  • Andy Nelson, Gary Rydstrom, Drew Kunin for¬†Bridge of Spies
  • Andy Nelson, Christopher Scarabosio, Stuart Wilson for Star Wars: The ¬†Force Awakens gf

Sound Editing

  • Alan Robert Murray for Sicario
  • Mark A. Mangini, David White for Mad Max: Fury Road gf
  • Mart√≠n Hern√°ndez, Lon Bender for The Revenant
  • Matthew Wood, David Acord for Star Wars: The Force Awakens
  • Oliver Tarney for The Martian gf

Production Design

  • Adam Stockhausen, Rena DeAngelo, Bernhard Henrich for Bridge of Spies
  • Eve Stewart (?) for The Danish Girl
  • Colin Gibson, Katie Sharrock, Lisa Thompson for Mad Max: Fury Road gf
  • Arthur Max, Celia Bobak, Zolt√°n Horv√°th for The Martian gf
  • Jack Fisk, Hamish Purdy for The Revenant

Live Action Short

  • Basil Khalil, Eric Dupont for Ave Maria
  • Henry Hughes for Day One
  • Patrick Vollrath for Everything Will Be OK (Alles Wird Gut)
  • Jamie Donoughue for Shok
  • Benjamin Cleary, Serena Armitage for Stutterer

Animated Short

  • Gabriel Osorio Vargas, Pato Escala Pierart for Bear Story (Historia de un Oso) gf¬†
  • Konstantin Bronzit for We Can’t Live without Cosmos (Mi ne Mozhem zhit bez Kosmosa) gf
  • Richard Williams, Imogen Sutton for Prologue gf
  • Sanjay Patel, Nicole Paradis Grindle for Sanjay’s Super Team gf
  • Don Hertzfeldt for World of Tomorrow gf

Best Animated Feature

  • Anomalisa gf
  • Boy and the World (O Menino e o Mundo) gf
  • Inside Out gf
  • Shaun the Sheep gf
  • When Marnie Was There (Omoide no M√Ęn√ģ) gf

 Supporting ActorYea

  • Christian Bale for The Big Short
  • Tom Hardy for The Revenant
  • Mark Ruffalo for¬†Spotlight
  • Mark Rylance for Bridge of Spies
  • Sylvester Stallone for¬†Creed

Supporting Actress

  • Jennifer Jason Leigh for The Hateful Eight
  • Rachel McAdams for Spotlight
  • Rooney Mara for Carol
  • Alicia Vikander for The Danish Girl
  • Kate Winslet for Steve Jobs gf

Makeup and Hairstyling

  • Lesley Vanderwalt, Elka Wardega, Damian Martin for Mad Max: Fury Road gf
  • Love Larson, Eva Von Bahr for The 100 Year Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared (Hundra√•ringen som klev ut genom f√∂nstret och f√∂rsvann)
  • Sian Grigg, Duncan Jarman, Robert A. Pandini for The Revenant

Costume

  • Sandy Powell for Carol
  • Sandy Powell for Cinderella gf
  • Paco Delgado The Danish Girl
  • Jenny Deavan for Mad Max: Fury Road gf
  • Jacqueline West for The Revenant

Cinematography

  • Edward Lachman for Carol
  • Robert Richardson for The Hateful Eight
  • John Seale for Mad Max: Fury Road gf
  • Emmanuel Lubezki for The Revenant
  • Roger Deakins for Sicario

Adapted Screenplay

  • Charles Randoph, Adam McKay for The Big Short
  • Nick Hornby for Brooklyn
  • Phyllis Nagy for Carol
  • Drew Goddard for The Martian gf
  • Emma Donoghue for Room

Original Screenplay

  • Matt Charman, Ethan Coen, Joel Coen for Bridge of Spies
  • Alex Garland for Ex Machina gf
  • Pete Docter, Meg LeFauve, Josh Cooley, Ronnie Del Carmen for Inside Out gf
  • Josh Singer, Tom McCarthy for Spotlight
  • Andrea Berloff, Jonathan Herman, S. Leigh Savidge, Alan Wenkus for¬†Straight Outta Compton

Original Score

  • Thomas Newman for Bridge of Spies
  • Carter Burwell for Carol
  • Ennio Morricone for The Hateful Eight
  • Sicario
  • John Williams for Star Wars: The Force Awakens gf

Foreign Language

  • Colombia: Embrace of the Serpent
  • France: Mustang
  • Hungary: Son of Saul
  • Jordan: Theeb
  • Denmark: A War (Krigen)

Directing

  • Adam McKay for The Big Short
  • George Miller for Mad Max: Fury Road gf
  • Alejandro Gonz√°lez I√Ī√°rritu for The Revenant
  • Lenny Abrahamson for Room
  • Tom McCarthy for Spotlight

Lead Actress

  • Kate Blanchett for Carol
  • Brie Larson for Room
  • Jennifer Lawrence for Joy
  • Charlotte Rampling for 45 Years
  • Saoirse Ronan for Brooklyn

Lead Actor

  • Bryan Cranston for Trumbo
  • Matt Damon for The Martian gf
  • Leonardo DiCaprio for The Revenant
  • Michael Fassbender for Steve Jobs gf
  • Eddie Redmayne for The Danish Girl

Best Picture

  • Brad Pitt, Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner for The Big Short
  • Steven Spielberg, Marc Platt, Kristie Macosko Krieger for Bridge of Spies
  • Finola Dwyer, Amanda Posey for Brooklyn
  • Doug Mitchell, George Miller for Mad Max: Fury Road gf
  • Simon Kinberg, Ridley Scott, Michael Schaefer, Mark Huffam for The Martian gf
  • Arnon Milchan, Steve Golin, Alejandro Gonz√°lez I√Ī√°rritu, Mary Parent, Keith Redmon for Revenant
  • Ed Guiney for Room
  • Michael Sugar, Steve Golin, Nicole Rocklin, Blye Pagon Faust for Spotlight

Where can you legally stream any of these Oscar nominees without paying additional money (subscriptions required)?

Amazon Prime:

  • Ex Machina
  • The 100 Year Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared

Hulu:

  • The Youth

Netflix:

  • Winter on Fire

2016 Oscar nominations video:

Complete list of nominees from the Academy website:

http://oscar.go.com/nominees

Join thousands of readers and try the free The Measured Circle magazine at Flipboard

This post by Bufo Calvin originally appeared in the  The Measured Circle blog. To support this or other blogs/organizations, buy  Amazon Gift Cards from a link on the site, then use those to buy your items. There will be no cost to you, and a benefit to them.

2015 BOPMadness (Bufo’s Oscar Prediction Madness) predictions

February 22, 2015

2015 BOPMadness (Bufo’s Oscar Prediction Madness) predictions

Thank you once again to everyone who made predictions this year!

It will be very interesting to see how we do…there are some very tight races this year!

Here are our predictions:

Best Picture:

1. Boyhood (Richard Linklater, Cathleen Sutherland) 76% chance
2. Birdman (Alejandro Gonz√°lez I√Ī√°rritu, John Lesher, James W. Skotchdopole) 75% chance Winner
3. Selma (Christian Colson, Oprah Winfrey, Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner) 60% chance
4. The Grand Budapest Hotel (Wes Anderson, Scott Rudin, Steven M. Rales, Jeremy Dawson) 51% chance
5. American Sniper (Clint Eastwood, Robert Lorenz, Andrew Lazar, Bradley Cooper, Peter Morgan) 49% chance
6. The Imitation Game (Nora Grossman, Ido Ostrowsky, Teddy Schwarzman) 43% chance (tie)
6. The Theory of Everything (Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, Lisa Bruce, Anthony McCarten) 43% chance (tie)
8. Whiplash (Jason Blum, Helen Estabrook, David Lancaster) 41% chance

Lead Actor:

1. Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything) 91% chance Winner correct
2. Michael Keaton (Birdman) 76% chance
3. Bradley Cooper (American Sniper) 49% chance
4. Benedict Cumberbatch (The Imitation Game) 47% chance
5. Steve Carell (Foxcatcher) 40% chance
Lead Actress:
1. Julianne Moore (Still Alice) 92% chance Winner correct
2. Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl) 58% chance
3, Reese Witherspoon (Wild) 52% chance
4. Marion Cotillard (Two Days, One Night) 50% chance
5. Felicity Jones (The Theory of Everything) 48% chance
Supporting Actor:
1. J.K. Simmons (Whiplash) 86% chance Winner (correct)
2. Edward Norton (Birdman) 62% chance
3. Ethan Hawke (Boyhood) 58% chance
4. Robert Duvall (The Judge) 52% chance
5. Mark Ruffalo (Foxcatcher) 42% chance
Supporting Actress:
1. Patricia Arquette (Boyhood) 90% chance Winner correct
2. Emma Stone (Birdman) 66% chance
3. Laura Dern (Wild) 52% chance (tie)
3. Meryl Streep (Into the Woods) 52% chance (tie)
5. Keira Knightley (The Imitation Game) 40% chance
Director:
1. Richard Linklater (Boyhood) 86% chance
2. Alejandro Gonz√°lez I√Ī√°rritu (Birdman) 80% chance Winner
3. Wes Anderson (The Grand Budapest Hotel) 58% chance
4. Morten Tyldum (The Imitation Game) 46% chance
5. Bennett Miller (Foxcatcher) 30% chance
Adapted Screenplay:
1. The Imitation Game (Graham Moore) 72% chance (tie)  Winner (half correct)
1. The Theory of Everything (Anthony McCarten) 72% chance (tie)
3. Whiplash (Damien Chazelle) 62% chance
4. American Sniper (Jason Hall) 52% chance
5. Inherent Vice (Paul Thomas Anderson) 42% chance
Original Screenplay:
1. The Grand Budapest Hotel (Wes Anderson, Hugo Guinness) 78% chance
2. Boyhood (Richard Linklater) 76% chance
3. Birdman (Alejandro Gonz√°lez I√Ī√°rritu, Nicol√°s Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris, Armando Bo) 74% chance Winner
4. Foxcatcher (E. Max Frye, Dan Futterman) 44% chance
5. Nightcrawler (Dan Gilroy) 28% chance
Cinematography:
1.Birdman (Emmanuel Lubezki) 76% chance (tie) Winner (half correct)
1.The Grand Budapest Hotel (Robert D. Yeoman) 76% chance (tie)
3. Unbroken (Roger Deakins) 52% chance
4. Mr. Turner (Dick Pope) 50% chance
5. Ida (Lukasz Zal, Ryszard Lenczewski) 46% chance
Costume Design:
1. The Grand Budapest Hotel (Milena Canonero) 80% chance Winner correct
2. Into the Woods (Colleen Atwood) 78% chance
3. Mr. Turner (2014): Jacqueline Durran) 58% chance
4. Maleficent (Anna B. Sheppard, Jane Clive) 48% chance
5. Inherent Vice (Mark Bridges) 36% chance
Film Editing:
1. Boyhood (Sandra Adair) 84% chance
2. The Grand Budapest Hotel (Barney Pilling) 62% chance (tie)
3. American Sniper (Joel Cox, Gary Roach) 62% chance (tie)
4. Whiplash (Tom Cross) 54% chance Winner
5. The Imitation Game (William Goldenberg) 28% chance
Makeup & Hairstyling:
1. The Grand Budapest Hotel (Frances Hannon, Mark Coulier) 87% chance Winner correct
2. Foxcatcher (Bill Corso, Dennis Liddiard) 57% chance (tie)
2. Guardians of the Galaxy (Elizabeth Yianni-Georgiou, David White) 57% chance (tie)
Production Design:
1.The Grand Budapest Hotel (Adam Stockhausen, Anna Pinnock) 86% chance Winner correct
2. Into the Woods (Dennis Gassner, Anna Pinnock) 68% chance
3. The Imitation Game (Maria Djurkovic, Tatiana Macdonald) 60% chance
4. Mr. Turner (Suzie Davies, Charlotte Watts) 48% chance
5. Interstellar (Nathan Crowley, Gary Fettis) 28% chance
Sound Editing:
1. American Sniper (Alan Robert Murray, Bub Asman) 90% chance Winner correct
2. Birdman (Aaron Glascock, Martín Hernández) 58% chance (tie)
2. Interstellar (Richard King) 58% chance (tie)
4. Unbroken (Becky Sullivan, Andrew DeCristofaro) 56% chance
5. The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies (Brent Burge, Jason Canovas) 38% chance
Sound Mixing:
1. American Sniper (John T. Reitz, Gregg Rudloff, Walt Martin) 78% chance
2. Whiplash (Craig Mann, Ben Wilkins, Thomas Curley) 66% chance Winner
3. Birdman (on Taylor, Frank A. Monta√Īo, Thomas Varga) 56% chance
4. Unbroken (Jon Taylor, Frank A. Monta√Īo, David Lee) 52% chance
5. Interstellar (Gary Rizzo, Gregg Landaker, Mark Weingarten) 48% chance
Visual Effects:
1. Interstellar (Paul J. Franklin, Andrew Lockley, Ian Hunter, Scott R. Fisher) 84% chance Winner correct
2. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes (Joe Letteri, Dan Lemmon, Daniel Barrett, Erik Winquist) 74% chance
3. Guardians of the Galaxy (Stephane Ceretti, Nicolas Aithadi, Jonathan Fawkner, Paul Corbould) 68% chance
4. X-Men: Days of Future Past (Richard Stammers, Lou Pecora, Tim Crosbie, Cameron Waldbauer) 40% chance
5. Captain America: The Winter Soldier (Dan Deleeuw, Russell Earl, Bryan Grill, Daniel Sudick) 34% chance
Animated Feature:
1. How to Train Your Dragon 2 73% chance
2. Big Hero Six 71% chance Winner
3. The Boxtrolls 56% chance (tie)
3. The Tale of the Princess Kaguya 56% chance (tie)
5. Song of the Sea 44% chance
Documentary Feature:
1. Virunga (Orlando von Einsiedel, Joanna Natasegara) 67% chance
2. Citizenfour: Laura Poitras, Mathilde Bonnefoy, Dirk Wilutzky) 62% chance (tie) Winner
2. Last Days in Vietnam (Rory Kennedy, Keven McAlester) 62% chance (tie)
4. Finding Vivian Maier (John Maloof, Charlie Siskel)  58% chance
5. The Salt of the Earth (Wim Wenders, Juliano Ribeiro Salgado, David Rosier) 51% chance
Documentary Short:
1. White Earth (Christian Jensen) 78% chance
2. Joanna (Aneta Kopacz) 62% chance
3. Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1 (Ellen Goosenberg Kent, Dana Perry) 56% chance (tie) Winner
3. The Reaper (Gabriel Serra) 56% chance (tie)
5. Our Curse (Tomasz Sliwinski, Maciej Slesicki) 49% chance
Foreign Language Film:
1. Ida (Pawel Pawlikowski) 80% chance Winner correct
2. Timbuktu (Abderrahmane Sissako) 58% chance
3. Leviathan (Andrey Zvyagintsev) 56% chance (tie)
3. Wild Tales (Damián Szifrón) 56% chance (tie)
5. Tangerines (Zaza Urushadze) 51% chance
Music – Score:
1. The Theory of Everything (Jóhann Jóhannsson) 84% chance
2. The Grand Budapest Hotel (Alexandre Desplat) 76% chance Winner
3. The Imitation Game (Alexandre Desplat) 58% chance
4. Mr. Turner (Gary Yershon) 42% chance
5. Interstellar (Hans Zimmer) 40% chance
Music – Song:
1. Selma (Common, John Legend) (Glory) 90% chance Winner correct
2. Glen Campbell: I’ll Be Me (Glen Campbell, Julian Raymond) (I’m Not Gonna Miss You) ¬†68% chance
3. The Lego Movie (Shawn Patterson) (Everything is Awesome) 60% chance
4. Begin Again (Gregg Alexander, Danielle Brisebois) (Lost Stars) 43% chance
5. Beyond the Lights (Diane Warren) (Grateful) 40% chance
Short – Animated:
1. Feast (Patrick Osborne, Kristina Reed) 89% chance Winner correct
2. The Dam Keeper (Robert Kondo, Daisuke ‘Dice’ Tsutsumi) 64% chance
3. A Single Life (Joris Oprins) 53% chance
4. The Bigger Picture (Daisy Jacobs, Chris Hees) 47% chance (tie)
4. Me and My Moulton (Torill Kove) 47% chance (tie)
Short – Live Action:
1. The Phone Call (Mat Kirkby, James Lucas) 76% chance Winner correct
2. Parvaneh (Talkhon Hamzavi, Stefan Eichenberger) 67% chance
3. Boogaloo and Graham (Michael Lennox, Ronan Blaney) 64% chance
4. Butter Lamp (Wei Hu, Julien Féret) 51% chance
5. Aya (Oded Binnun, Mihal Brezis) 42% chance
Our best bets (90% or higher):
  1. Lead Actress: Julianne Moore 92%
  2. Lead Actor: Eddie Remayne: 91%
  3. Supporting Actress: Patricia Arquette: 90%
  4. Music – Song: Glory from Selma: 90%
  5. Sound Editing: American Sniper 90%

We have some very close races this year!

  1. Adapted Screenplay tied for The Imitation Game and the Theory of Everything
  2. Cinematography tied for Birdman and The Grand Budapest Hotel
  3. Best Picture: we have Boyhood edging out Birdman by 1%!

See you in the movies!

Update: here is a summary of the results.

We weren’t quite as accurate as a team in 2015 as we were in 2014.

Overall, we were at 74.55% this year, versus 77.38% last year.

We were better on the Incredibly Difficult Maven section this year (74.55%) versus last year 68.07%.

On the Big Six (acting, Picture, Director) we got 88.33% this year, beating last years 79.41%.

Our individual winners were:

  • Big Six was Jimmy Orsag…with a perfect 100%!
  • The Incredibly Difficult Maven section was Neil Lapinsky, with a remarkable 90.91%!
  • Neil also did well on the Big Six, which combined meant winning overall with 92.56%!

Congratulations to Jimmy and Neil!

They have won that most valuable of human possessions: braggin’ rights! ūüôā

As a group, we called all of the acting categories…but missed on both Director and Picture. We thought both would go to Boyhood, although Birdman was our second choice.

We were most shocked by the Documentary Short, only getting a 55.56%.

I would say that generally, we slightly underestimated Birdman (I didn’t think the Academy would go that geeky, for example), and Whiplash surprised us with technical wins.

Hope everybody reading this will play next year!

Join thousands of readers and try the free The Measured Circle magazine at Flipboard 

This post by Bufo Calvin originally appeared in the  The Measured Circle blog. To support this or other blogs/organizations, buy  Amazon Gift Cards from a link on the site, then use those to buy your items. There will be no cost to you, and a benefit to them.

2015 BOPMadness (Bufo’s Oscar Prediction Madness)

January 25, 2015

2015 BOPMadness (Bufo’s Oscar Prediction Madness)

For more than twenty years, I’ve been doing an Oscar prediction contest.

Important note: there is no fee to play the  game, and we only play for that most valuable of human possessions…bragging rights. 

We do ours a bit differently than most. You rank every nominee, and then you get the number of points you assigned to the winner.

For example, there are five nominees for Actor in a Leading Role. You would assign the one you thought the Academy was most likely to pick (not necessarily the one you thought most deserved it) with a 5. Your second most likely would be a 4, and so on.

For the first time this year, we are using SurveyMonkey, rather than Excel.

That means you can play anonymously, if you prefer…we also think many people may find it easier.

There are three surveys (we are currently limited to no more than ten questions per survey):

Big Six and Screenwriting:

https://www.surveymonkey.com/s/QHWZNNZ

Design and Appearance:

https://www.surveymonkey.com/s/JRVRTCB

Whole Movies and Music

https://www.surveymonkey.com/s/JM2JTCS

If you would like to be recognized as a winner of the Big Six (the acting awards, Best Picture, and Best Director), the Incredibly Difficult Maven Section (everything else), and/or Overall, you’ll have the opportunity at the site to enter your name (that will not be public). If you’d like to receive future communications about BOPMadness, you can also enter your e-mail address there (again, that will not be public).

If you have any questions, you can comment on this post. If you’d like your comment to remain private, please let me know in the comment.

We will post the group predictions here before the Oscar ceremony on Sunday, February 22nd.

The more people who play, the more accurate we tend to be…feel free to share this with anyone you think would like to participate.

See you in the movies!

Join thousands of readers and try the free The Measured Circle magazine at Flipboard

This post by Bufo Calvin originally appeared in the  The Measured Circle blog. To support this or other blogs/organizations, buy  Amazon Gift Cards from a link on the site, then use those to buy your items. There will be no cost to you, and a benefit to them.

2015 Oscar noms

January 15, 2015

2015 Oscar noms

This is very preliminary, almost live-blogging. ūüôā I’ll call out the geeky nominees as I catch them, sometimes shortening the names. After the announcements, I’ll formalize it more and add some comments.

Announcements are over…some early thoughts:

  • I’m surprised by the number of nominations for Interstellar…more than I expected
  • Birdman gets three acting noms
  • Best songs can still come from animated movies…and very popular (and profitable) ones at that
  • Maleficent is Oscar nominated
  • Guardians of the Galaxy was nominated for Hair and Makeup…and Into the Woods wasn’t
  • The Imitation Game got a lot of love
  • Eddie Redmayne was nominated…and seems to me to be the one to beat. It’s almost a perfect Oscar storm…and wouldn’t it be great to see Stephen Hawking at the ceremony?
  • Blockbuster geek movies which may be critical disfaves often get rewarded in technical categories…I didn’t see so much of that this time. For example, no noms for Transformers (we could have seen sound or Special Effects, perhaps)
  • You could notice how the lack of eligibility affects some categories: The Hanging Tree from The Hunger Games wasn’t eligible, Birdman for Score…
  • The Lego Movie was not nominated for Best Animated Feature
  • This is a notably non-diverse group of major nominees: I think we’ll hear people commenting on that

Best Original Song

  • Everything is Awesome from the Lego Movie

SFX (Special Effects)

  • Captain America: The Winter Soldier
  • Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
  • Guardians of the Galaxy
  • Interstellar
  • X-Men: Days of Future Past

Doc Short

Doc Feature

  • Citizen Four

Editing

  • The Imitation Game

Sound Editing

  • Birdman
  • The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
  • Interstellar

Sound Mixing

  • Birdman
  • Interstellar

Production Design

  • The Imitation Game
  • Interstellar
  • Into the Woods

Live Action Short

Animated Short

Best Animated Feature

  • Big Hero Six
  • Boxtrolls
  • How to Train Your Dragon 2
  • Song of the Sea
  • Tale of the Princess Kaguya

 Supporting Actor

  • Edward Norton in Birdman

Supporting Actress

  • Keira Knightly in¬†The Imitation Game
  • Emma Stone in Birdman
  • Meryl Srteep in Into the Woods

Makeup and Hairstyling

  • Guardians of the Galaxy

Costume

  • Into the Woods
  • Maleficent

Cinematography

  • Birdman

Adapted Screenplay

  • The Imitation Game
  • The Theory of Everything

Original Screenplay

  • Birdman

Original Score

  • The Imitation Game
  • Interstellar
  • The Theory of Everything

Foreign Language

Directing

  • Birdman
  • The Imitation Game

Lead Actress

  • Felicity Jones The Theory of Everything

Lead Actor

  • Benedict Cumberbatch in The Imitation Game
  • Michael Keaton in Birdman
  • Eddie Redmayne in The Theory of Everything

Best Picture

  • Birdman
  • The Imitation Game
  • The Theory of Everything

2015 Oscar nominations video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U1G_C6ygtRA

Complete list of nominees from the Academy website:

http://oscar.go.com/nominees

Join thousands of readers and try the free The Measured Circle magazine at Flipboard

This post by Bufo Calvin originally appeared in the  The Measured Circle blog. To support this or other blogs/organizations, buy  Amazon Gift Cards from a link on the site, then use those to buy your items. There will be no cost to you, and a benefit to them.


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