BOPMadness (Bufo’s Oscar Prediction Madness) 2019: our predictions (will be updated with winners)

BOPMadness (Bufo’s Oscar Prediction Madness) 2019: our predictions (will be updated with winners)

Thank you to everybody who played! I’ve been doing this Oscar prediction contest for decades, and the more people who play, I think the better we do.

First, I’m going to give you our percentage chances, sorted by category. I’m going to follow that with our predictions sorted by likelihood.

Nominee % Winner Got It
Best Picture [Black Panther (Kevin Feige)] 53%
Best Picture [BlacKkKlansman (Sean McKittrick, Jason Blum, Raymond Mansfield, Jordan Peele and Spike Lee)] 43%
Best Picture [Bohemian Rhasody (Graham King)] 33%
Best Picture [The Favourite (Ceci Dempsey, Ed Guiney, Lee Magiday and Yorgos Lanthimos] 58%
Best Picture [Green Book (Jim Burke, Charles B. Wessler, Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly and Nick Vallelonga)] 58%      X
Best Picture [Roma (Gabriela Rodríguez and Alfonso Cuaron,)] 93%
Best Picture [A Star Is Born (Bill Gerber, Bradley Cooper and Lynette Howell Taylor)] 28%
Best Picture [Vice (Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Adam McKay and Kevin Messick)] 43%
Lead Actress [Yalitza Aparicio in Roma] 72%
Lead Actress [Glenn Close in The Wife] 68%
Lead Actress [Olivia Coleman in The Favourite] 64%      X
Lead Actress [Lady Gaga in A Star Is Born] 24%
Lead Actress [Melissa McCarthy in Can You Ever Forgive Me?] 36%
Lead Actor [Christian Bale in Vice] 56%
Lead Actor [Bradley Cooper in A Star Is Born] 48%
Lead Actor [Willem Dafoe in At Eternity’s Gate] 52%
Lead Actor [Rami Malek in Bohemian Rhapsody] 44%      X
Lead Actor [Viggo Mortensen in Green Book] 52%
Supporting Actor [Mahershala Ali in Green Book] 64%      X      X
Supporting Actor [Adam Driver in BlacKkKlansman] 36%
Supporting Actor [Sam Elliott in A Star Is Born] 48%
Supporting Actor [Richard E. Grant in Can You Ever Forgive Me?] 48%
Supporting Actor [Sam Rockwell in Vice] 56%
Supporting Actress [Amy Adams in Vice] 56%
Supporting Actress [Marina de Tavira in Roma] 28%
Supporting Actress [Regina King in If Beale Street Could Talk] 72%      X     X
Supporting Actress [Emma Stone in The Favourite] 52%
Supporting Actress [Rachel Weisz in The Favourite] 44%
Directing [Alfonso Cuaron for Roma] 84%       X      X
Directing [Yorgos Lanthimos for The Favourite] 48%
Directing [Spike Lee for BlacKkKlansman] 44%
Directing [Adam McKay for Vice] 36%
Directing [Pawel Pawlikowski for Cold War] 40%
Original Screenplay [The Favourite (Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara)] 40%
Original Screenplay [First Reformed (Paul Schrader)] 44%
Original Screenplay [Green Book (Nick Vallelonga, Brian Hayes Currie, Peter Farrelly)] 60%      X
Original Screenplay [Roma (Alfonso Cuaron)] 64%
Original Screenplay [Vice (Adam McKay)] 44%
Adapted Screenplay [The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (Joel Coen, Ethan Coen)] 32%
Adapted Screenplay [BlacKkKlansman (Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott, Spike Lee)] 56%      X
Adapted Screenplay [Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Nicole Holofcener, Jeff Whitty)] 64%
Adapted Screenplay [If Beale Street Could Talk (Barry Jenkins)] 48%
Adapted Screenplay [A Star Is Born (Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper, Will Fetters)] 52%
Cinematography [Cold War (Lukasz Zal)] 60%
Cinematography [The Favourite (Robbie Ryan)] 72%
Cinematography [Never Look Away (Caleb Deschanel)] 40%
Cinematography [Roma (Alfonso Cuaron)] 52%      X
Cinematography [A Star Is Born (Matthew Libatique)] 28%
Film Editing [BlacKkKlansman (Barry Alexander Brown)] 40%
Film Editing [Bohemian Rhapsody (John Ottman)] 44%       X
Film Editing [The Favourite (Yorgos Mavropsaridis)] 64%
Film Editing [Green Book (Patrick J. Don Vito)] 36%
Film Editing [Vice (Hank Corwin)] 68%
Production Design [Black Panther (Hannah Beachler, Jay Hart)] 56%      X
Production Design [The Favourite (Fiona Crombie, Alice Felton)] 84%
Production Design [First Man (Nathan Crowley, Kathy Lucas)] 32%
Production Design [Mary Poppins Returns (John Myhre, Gordon Sim)] 40%
Production Design [Roma (Eugenio Caballero, Barbara Enriquez)] 40%
Costume [The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (Mary Zophres)] 20%
Costume [Black Panther (Ruth E. Carter)] 72%       X      X
Costume [The Favourite (Sandy Powell)] 52%
Costume [Mary Poppins Returns (Sandy Powell)] 48%
Costume [Mary Queen of Scots (Alexandra Byrne)] 60%
Makeup and Hairstyling [Border (Göran Lundström, Pamela Goldammer)] 20%
Makeup and Hairstyling [Mary Queen of Scots (Jenny Shircore, Marc Pilcher, Jessica Brooks)] 53%
Makeup and Hairstyling [Vice (Greg Cannom, Kate Biscoe, Patricia Dehaney)] 73%      X       X
Score [Black Panther (Ludwig Göransson)] 56%       X   X (tie)
Score [BlacKkKlansman (Terence Blanchard)] 40%
Score [If Beale Street Could Talk (Nicholas Britell)] 48%
Score [Isle of Dogs (Alexandre Desplat)] 52%
Score [Mary Poppins Returns (Marc Shaiman)] 56%
Song [When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings from The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (David Rawlings, Gillian Welch)] 28%
Song [All the Stars from Black Panther (Sounwave, Kendrick Lamar, Anthony Tiffith, SZA)] 68%
Song [The Place Where Lost Things Go from Marry Poppins Returns (Marc Shaiman, Scott Wittman)] 60%
Song [I’ll Fight from RBG (Diane Warren)] 52%
Song [Shallow from A Star Is Born (Lady Gaga, Mark Ronson, Anthony Rossomando, Andrew Wyatt)] 44%      X
Sound Mixing [Black Panther (Steve Boeddeker, Brandon Proctor, Peter J. Devlin)] 60%
Sound Mixing [Bohemian Rhapsody (Paul Massey, Tim Cavagin, John Casali)] 36%      X
Sound Mixing [First Man (Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montaño, Ai-Ling Lee, Mary H. Ellis)] 40%
Sound Mixing [Roma (Skip Lievsay, Craig Henighan, José Antonio García)] 56%
Sound Mixing [A Star Is Born (Tom Ozanich, Dean A. Zupancic, Jason Ruder, Steven Morrow)] 60%
Sound Editing [Black Panther (Benjamin A. Burtt, Steve Boeddeker)] 32%
Sound Editing [Bohemian Rhapsody (John Warhurst, Nina Hartstone)] 56%      X
Sound Editing [First Man (Ai-Ling Lee, Mildred Iatrou)] 64%
Sound Editing [A Quiet Place (Ethan Van der Ryn, Erik Aadahl)] 72%
Sound Editing [Roma (Sergio Diaz, Skip Lievsay)] 28%
Visual Effects [Avengers: Infinity War (Dan DeLeeuw, Kelly Port, Russell Earl, Daniel Sudick)] 40%
Visual Effects [Christopher Robin (Chris Lawrence, Mike Eames, Theo Jones, Chris Corbould)] 44%
Visual Effects [First Man (Paul Lambert, Ian Hunter, Tristan Myles, J.D. Schwalm)] 56%      X
Visual Effects [Ready Player One (Roger Guyett, Grady Cofer, Matthew E. Butler, David Shirk)] 64%
Visual Effects [Solo: A Star Wars Story (Rob Bredow, Patrick Tubach, Neal Scanlan, Dominic Tuohy)] 48%
Documentary Feature [Free Solo (Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi, Jimmy Chin, Evan Hayes, Shannon Dill)] 48%     X
Documentary Feature [Hale County This Morning, This Evening (RaMell Ross, Joslyn Barnes, Su Kim)] 48%
Documentary Feature [Minding the Gap (Bing Liu, Diane Moy Quon)] 44%
Documentary Feature [Of Fathers and Sons (Talal Derki, Ansgar Frerich, Eva Kemme, Tobias Siebert)] 44%
Documentary Feature [RBG (Betsy West, Julie Cohen)] 68%
Documentary Short [Black Sheep (Ed Perkins, Jonathan Chinn)] 56%
Documentary Short [End Game (Rob Epstein, Jeffrey Friedman)] 60%
Documentary Short [Lifeboat (Skye Fitzgerald, Bryn Mooser)] 40%
Documentary Short [A Night at the Garden (Marshall Curry)] 52%
Documentary Short [Period. End of Sentence. (Rayka Zehtabchi, Melissa Berton)] 44%      X
Animated Feature [Incredibles 2 (Brad Bird, John Walker, Nicole Paradis Grindle)] 48%
Animated Feature [Isle of Dogs (Wes Anderson, Scott Rudin, Steven Rales, Jeremy Dawson)] 60%
Animated Feature [Mirai (Mamoru Hosoda, Yûichirô Saitô)] 40%
Animated Feature [Ralph Breaks the Internet (Rich Moore, Phil Johnston, Clark Spencer)] 36%
Animated Feature [Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (Bob Persichetti, Peter Ramsey, Rodney Rothman, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller)] 68%      X      X
Animated Short [Animal Behaviour (Alison Snowden, David Fine)] 36%
Animated Short [Bao (Domee Shi, Becky Neiman)] 52%      X
Animated Short [Late Afternoon (Louise Bagnall, Nuria González Blanco)] 64%
Animated Short [One Small Step (Andrew Chesworth, Bobby Pontillas)] 40%
Animated Short [Weekends (Trevor Jimenez)] 60%
Live Action Short [Detainment (Vincent Lambe, Darren Mahon)] 56%
Live Action Short [Fauve (Jeremy Comte, Maria Gracia Turgeon)] 48%
Live Action Short [Marguerite (Marianne Farley, Marie-Hélène Panisset)] 68%
Live Action Short [Mother (Rodrigo Sorogoyen, María del Puy Alvarado)] 24%
Live Action Short [Skin (Guy Nattiv, Jaime Ray Newman)] 56%      X
Foreign Language Film [Capernaum (Lebanon)] 32%
Foreign Language Film [Cold War  (Poland)] 64%
Foreign Language Film [Never Look Away (Germany)] 40%
Foreign Language Film [Roma (Mexico)] 60%       X
Foreign Language Film [Shoplifters (Japan)] 56%

Now, here it is, sorted by our likelihood (most likely to least likely):

Nominee %
Best Picture [Roma (Gabriela Rodríguez and Alfonso Cuaron,)] 93%
Directing [Alfonso Cuaron for Roma] 84%
Production Design [The Favourite (Fiona Crombie, Alice Felton)] 84%
Makeup and Hairstyling [Vice (Greg Cannom, Kate Biscoe, Patricia Dehaney)] 73%
Lead Actress [Yalitza Aparicio in Roma] 72%
Supporting Actress [Regina King in If Beale Street Could Talk] 72%
Cinematography [The Favourite (Robbie Ryan)] 72%
Costume [Black Panther (Ruth E. Carter)] 72%
Sound Editing [A Quiet Place (Ethan Van der Ryn, Erik Aadahl)] 72%
Lead Actress [Glenn Close in The Wife] 68%
Film Editing [Vice (Hank Corwin)] 68%
Song [All the Stars from Black Panther (Sounwave, Kendrick Lamar, Anthony Tiffith, SZA)] 68%
Documentary Feature [RBG (Betsy West, Julie Cohen)] 68%
Animated Feature [Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (Bob Persichetti, Peter Ramsey, Rodney Rothman, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller)] 68%
Live Action Short [Marguerite (Marianne Farley, Marie-Hélène Panisset)] 68%
Lead Actress [Olivia Coleman in The Favourite] 64%
Supporting Actor [Mahershala Ali in Green Book] 64%
Original Screenplay [Roma (Alfonso Cuaron)] 64%
Adapted Screenplay [Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Nicole Holofcener, Jeff Whitty)] 64%
Film Editing [The Favourite (Yorgos Mavropsaridis)] 64%
Sound Editing [First Man (Ai-Ling Lee, Mildred Iatrou)] 64%
Visual Effects [Ready Player One (Roger Guyett, Grady Cofer, Matthew E. Butler, David Shirk)] 64%
Animated Short [Late Afternoon (Louise Bagnall, Nuria González Blanco)] 64%
Foreign Language Film [Cold War  (Poland)] 64%
Original Screenplay [Green Book (Nick Vallelonga, Brian Hayes Currie, Peter Farrelly)] 60%
Cinematography [Cold War (Lukasz Zal)] 60%
Costume [Mary Queen of Scots (Alexandra Byrne)] 60%
Song [The Place Where Lost Things Go from Marry Poppins Returns (Marc Shaiman, Scott Wittman)] 60%
Sound Mixing [Black Panther (Steve Boeddeker, Brandon Proctor, Peter J. Devlin)] 60%
Sound Mixing [A Star Is Born (Tom Ozanich, Dean A. Zupancic, Jason Ruder, Steven Morrow)] 60%
Documentary Short [End Game (Rob Epstein, Jeffrey Friedman)] 60%
Animated Feature [Isle of Dogs (Wes Anderson, Scott Rudin, Steven Rales, Jeremy Dawson)] 60%
Animated Short [Weekends (Trevor Jimenez)] 60%
Foreign Language Film [Roma (Mexico)] 60%
Best Picture [The Favourite (Ceci Dempsey, Ed Guiney, Lee Magiday and Yorgos Lanthimos] 58%
Best Picture [Green Book (Jim Burke, Charles B. Wessler, Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly and Nick Vallelonga)] 58%
Lead Actor [Christian Bale in Vice] 56%
Supporting Actor [Sam Rockwell in Vice] 56%
Supporting Actress [Amy Adams in Vice] 56%
Adapted Screenplay [BlacKkKlansman (Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott, Spike Lee)] 56%
Production Design [Black Panther (Hannah Beachler, Jay Hart)] 56%
Score [Black Panther (Ludwig Göransson)] 56%
Score [Mary Poppins Returns (Marc Shaiman)] 56%
Sound Mixing [Roma (Skip Lievsay, Craig Henighan, José Antonio García)] 56%
Sound Editing [Bohemian Rhapsody (John Warhurst, Nina Hartstone)] 56%
Visual Effects [First Man (Paul Lambert, Ian Hunter, Tristan Myles, J.D. Schwalm)] 56%
Documentary Short [Black Sheep (Ed Perkins, Jonathan Chinn)] 56%
Live Action Short [Detainment (Vincent Lambe, Darren Mahon)] 56%
Live Action Short [Skin (Guy Nattiv, Jaime Ray Newman)] 56%
Foreign Language Film [Shoplifters (Japan)] 56%
Best Picture [Black Panther (Kevin Feige)] 53%
Makeup and Hairstyling [Mary Queen of Scots (Jenny Shircore, Marc Pilcher, Jessica Brooks)] 53%
Lead Actor [Willem Dafoe in At Eternity’s Gate] 52%
Lead Actor [Viggo Mortensen in Green Book] 52%
Supporting Actress [Emma Stone in The Favourite] 52%
Adapted Screenplay [A Star Is Born (Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper, Will Fetters)] 52%
Cinematography [Roma (Alfonso Cuaron)] 52%
Costume [The Favourite (Sandy Powell)] 52%
Score [Isle of Dogs (Alexandre Desplat)] 52%
Song [I’ll Fight from RBG (Diane Warren)] 52%
Documentary Short [A Night at the Garden (Marshall Curry)] 52%
Animated Short [Bao (Domee Shi, Becky Neiman)] 52%
Lead Actor [Bradley Cooper in A Star Is Born] 48%
Supporting Actor [Sam Elliott in A Star Is Born] 48%
Supporting Actor [Richard E. Grant in Can You Ever Forgive Me?] 48%
Directing [Yorgos Lanthimos for The Favourite] 48%
Adapted Screenplay [If Beale Street Could Talk (Barry Jenkins)] 48%
Costume [Mary Poppins Returns (Sandy Powell)] 48%
Score [If Beale Street Could Talk (Nicholas Britell)] 48%
Visual Effects [Solo: A Star Wars Story (Rob Bredow, Patrick Tubach, Neal Scanlan, Dominic Tuohy)] 48%
Documentary Feature [Free Solo (Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi, Jimmy Chin, Evan Hayes, Shannon Dill)] 48%
Documentary Feature [Hale County This Morning, This Evening (RaMell Ross, Joslyn Barnes, Su Kim)] 48%
Animated Feature [Incredibles 2 (Brad Bird, John Walker, Nicole Paradis Grindle)] 48%
Live Action Short [Fauve (Jeremy Comte, Maria Gracia Turgeon)] 48%
Lead Actor [Rami Malek in Bohemian Rhapsody] 44%
Supporting Actress [Rachel Weisz in The Favourite] 44%
Directing [Spike Lee for BlacKkKlansman] 44%
Original Screenplay [First Reformed (Paul Schrader)] 44%
Original Screenplay [Vice (Adam McKay)] 44%
Film Editing [Bohemian Rhapsody (John Ottman)] 44%
Song [Shallow from A Star Is Born (Lady Gaga, Mark Ronson, Anthony Rossomando, Andrew Wyatt)] 44%
Visual Effects [Christopher Robin (Chris Lawrence, Mike Eames, Theo Jones, Chris Corbould)] 44%
Documentary Feature [Minding the Gap (Bing Liu, Diane Moy Quon)] 44%
Documentary Feature [Of Fathers and Sons (Talal Derki, Ansgar Frerich, Eva Kemme, Tobias Siebert)] 44%
Documentary Short [Period. End of Sentence. (Rayka Zehtabchi, Melissa Berton)] 44%
Best Picture [BlacKkKlansman (Sean McKittrick, Jason Blum, Raymond Mansfield, Jordan Peele and Spike Lee)] 43%
Best Picture [Vice (Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Adam McKay and Kevin Messick)] 43%
Directing [Pawel Pawlikowski for Cold War] 40%
Original Screenplay [The Favourite (Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara)] 40%
Cinematography [Never Look Away (Caleb Deschanel)] 40%
Film Editing [BlacKkKlansman (Barry Alexander Brown)] 40%
Production Design [Mary Poppins Returns (John Myhre, Gordon Sim)] 40%
Production Design [Roma (Eugenio Caballero, Barbara Enriquez)] 40%
Score [BlacKkKlansman (Terence Blanchard)] 40%
Sound Mixing [First Man (Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montaño, Ai-Ling Lee, Mary H. Ellis)] 40%
Visual Effects [Avengers: Infinity War (Dan DeLeeuw, Kelly Port, Russell Earl, Daniel Sudick)] 40%
Documentary Short [Lifeboat (Skye Fitzgerald, Bryn Mooser)] 40%
Animated Feature [Mirai (Mamoru Hosoda, Yûichirô Saitô)] 40%
Animated Short [One Small Step (Andrew Chesworth, Bobby Pontillas)] 40%
Foreign Language Film [Never Look Away (Germany)] 40%
Lead Actress [Melissa McCarthy in Can You Ever Forgive Me?] 36%
Supporting Actor [Adam Driver in BlacKkKlansman] 36%
Directing [Adam McKay for Vice] 36%
Film Editing [Green Book (Patrick J. Don Vito)] 36%
Sound Mixing [Bohemian Rhapsody (Paul Massey, Tim Cavagin, John Casali)] 36%
Animated Feature [Ralph Breaks the Internet (Rich Moore, Phil Johnston, Clark Spencer)] 36%
Animated Short [Animal Behaviour (Alison Snowden, David Fine)] 36%
Best Picture [Bohemian Rhasody (Graham King)] 33%
Adapted Screenplay [The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (Joel Coen, Ethan Coen)] 32%
Production Design [First Man (Nathan Crowley, Kathy Lucas)] 32%
Sound Editing [Black Panther (Benjamin A. Burtt, Steve Boeddeker)] 32%
Foreign Language Film [Capernaum (Lebanon)] 32%
Best Picture [A Star Is Born (Bill Gerber, Bradley Cooper and Lynette Howell Taylor)] 28%
Supporting Actress [Marina de Tavira in Roma] 28%
Cinematography [A Star Is Born (Matthew Libatique)] 28%
Song [When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings from The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (David Rawlings, Gillian Welch)] 28%
Sound Editing [Roma (Sergio Diaz, Skip Lievsay)] 28%
Lead Actress [Lady Gaga in A Star Is Born] 24%
Live Action Short [Mother (Rodrigo Sorogoyen, María del Puy Alvarado)] 24%
Costume [The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (Mary Zophres)] 20%
Makeup and Hairstyling [Border (Göran Lundström, Pamela Goldammer)] 20%

I’ll update this with winners!

See you in the movies!

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This post by Bufo Calvin originally appeared in the The Measured Circle blog

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