BOPMadness final Oscar predictions (results will also appear here later)

BOPMadness final Oscar predictions (results will also appear here later)

Here are our final predictions for tonight’s Oscars! Thanks to everyone who played!

Each player/team ranks each nominee in each category. That enables me to come up with the percentage chance that the group gave of each nominee winning. Note that the players are predicting, not saying what they would like to see win.

As has happened in the past, we have some ties in the predictions. Let’s say two of the nominees in the same 5-nominew category are tied for being the most likely. If one nominee had the highest total and it won, we’d get five points. However, if there are two, we’ll only get 4.5 points.

I’ll put the winners in here, and we can see how we did. ūüôā

Before it starts, though, I’ll note our surest bests and longest shots:

Surest bets (100% chance):

  • Lead Actor:¬†Gary Oldman in Darkest Hour
  • Lead Actress:¬†Frances McDormand in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
  • Supporting Actor:¬†Sam Rockwell in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
  • Directing:¬†Guillermo del Toro for The Shape of Water
  • Adapted Screenplay:¬†James Ivory for Call Me by Your Name
  • Makeup & Hairstyling:¬†Kazuhiro Tsuji, David Mainowski, Lucy Sibbick for Darkest Hour
  • Original Score:¬†Alexandre Desplat for The Shape of Water
  • Animated Feature: Lee Unkrich, Darla K. Anderson for Coco

Longest shots (20%):

  • Lead Actress: Meryl Streep in The Post
  • Directing:¬†Paul Thomas Anderson for Phantom Thread

The Big Six

Best Picture:

  1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri: 92%
  2. The Shape of Water 86% Winner [missed it: 8 points]
  3. Get Out 83%
  4. Dunkirk 69%
  5. Lady Bird 58%
  6. Call Me By Your Name 33%
  7. Darkest Hour/Phantom Thread 28%
  8. –Tie
  9. The Post 22%

Lead Actor

  1. Gary Oldman in Darkest Hour 100% Winner [called it]
  2. Daniel Kaluuya in Get Out 65%
  3. Daniel Day-Lewis in Phantom Thread 55%
  4. Timothee Chalomet in Call Me by Your Name 50%
  5. Denzel Washington in Roman J. Israel, Esq. 30%

Lead Actress

  1. Frances McDormand in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 100% Winner [called it]
  2. Sally Hawkins in The Shape of Water 75%
  3. Saoirse Ronan in Lady Bird 65%
  4. Margot Robbie in I, Tonya 40%
  5. Meryl Streep in The Post 20%

Supporting Actress

  1. Allison Janney in I, Tonya 95% Winner [called it]
  2. Laurie Metcalf in Lady Bird 85%
  3. Mary J. Blige in Mudbound 45%
  4. Lesley Manville in Phantom Thread 40%
  5. Octavia Spencer in The Shape of Water 35%

Supporting Actor

  1. Sam Rockwell in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 100% Winner  [called it]
  2. Willem Dafoe in The Florida Project 65%
  3. Christopher Plummer in All the Money in the World 55%
  4. Richard Jenkins in The Shape of Water 50%
  5. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 30%

Directing

  1. Guillermo del Toro for The Shape of Water 100% Winner [called it]
  2. Greta Gerwig for Lady Bird/Jordan Peele for Get Out 65%
  3. –Tie
  4. Christopher Nolan for Dunkirk 50%
  5. Paul Thomas Anderson for Phantom Thread 20%

The Incredibly Difficult Maven Section

Original Screenplay

  1. Jordan Peele for Get Out 95% Winner [called it]
  2. Martin McDonagh for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 75%
  3. Greta Gerwig for Lady Bird 70%
  4. Guillermo del Toro, Vanessa Taylor for The Shape of Water 35%
  5. Kumail Nanjiani, Emily V. Gordon for The Big Sick 25%

Adapted Screenplay

  1. James Ivory for Call Me by Your Name 100% Winner [called it]
  2. Dee Rees, Virgil Williams for Mudbound 75%
  3. Aaron Sorkin for Molly’s Game 60%
  4. Scott Frank, James Mangold, Michael Green for Logan 35%
  5. Scott Neustadter, Michael H. Weber for The Disaster Artist 30%

Cinematography

  1. Hoyte Van Hoytema for Dunkirk 75%
  2. Roger Deakins for Blade Runner 2049 70% Winner [missed it: 4 points]
  3. Dan Laustsen for The Shape of Water 65%
  4. Rachel Morrison for Mudbound 55%
  5. Bruno Delbonnel for the Darkest Hour 35%

Costume

  1. Mark Bridges for Phantom Thread 90% Winner [called it]
  2. Luis Sequiera for The Shape of Water 75%
  3. Consolata Boyle for Victoria & Abdul 50%
  4. Jacqueline Durran for Beauty and the Beast 45%
  5. Jacqueline Durran for Darkest Hour 40%

Film Editing

  1. Lee Smith for Dunkirk 95% Winner [called it]
  2. Sidney Wolinsky for The Shape of Water 60%
  3. Paul Machliss, Jonathan Amos for Baby Driver 55%
  4. Jon Gregory for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 50%
  5. Tatiana S. Riegel for I, Tonya 40%

Sound Mixing

  1. Gregg Landaker, Gary Rizzo, Mark Weingarten for Dunkirk 95% Winner [called it]
  2. Tim Cavigan, Mary H. Ellis, Julian Slater for Baby Driver 60%
  3. Michael Semanick, David Parker, Stuart Wilson, Ren Klyce for Star Wars: The Last Jedi/Christian T. Cooke, Glen Gauthier, Brad Zoern for The Shape of Water 50%
  4. (tie)
  5. Ron Bartlett, Doug Hemphill, Mac Ruth for Blade Runner 2049 45%

Sound Editing

  1. Richard King, Alex Gibson for Dunkirk 95% Winner [called it]
  2. Julian Slater for Baby Driver/Matthew Wood, Ren Klyce for Star Wars: The Last Jedi 60%
  3. (tie)
  4. Mark A. Mangini, Theo Green for Blade Runner 2049  50%
  5. Nathan Robitaille, Nelson Ferreira for The Shape of Water  35%

Visual Effects

  1. Ben Morris, Michael Mulholland, Neal Scanlan, Chris Corbould for Star Wars: The Last Jedi/Joe Letteri, Daniel Barrett, Dan Lemmon, Joel Whist for War for the Planet of the Apes  70%
  2. –tie
  3. John Nelson, Gerd Nefzer, Paul Lambert, Richard R. Hoover for Blade Runner 2049 Winner [missed it: 2.5 points]/Christopher Townsend, Guy Williams, Jonathan Fawkner, Daniel Sudnick for Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 65% Winner
  4. –tie
  5. Stephen Rosenbaum, Jeff White, Scott Benza, Michael Meinardus for Kong: Skull Island 30%

Makeup and Hairstyling

  1. Kazuhiro Tsuji, David Mainowski, Lucy Sibbick for Darkest Hour 100% Winner [called it]
  2. Arjen Tuiten for Wonder 58%
  3. Daniel Phillips, Louis Sheppard for Victoria & Abdul 42%

Original Song

  1. Kristen Anderson-Lopez, Robert Lopez for “Remember Me” from Coco 85% Winner [called it]
  2. Benj Pasek, Justin Paul for “This Is Me” from The Greatest Showman 75%
  3. Sufjan Stevens for “Mystery of Love” from Call Me by Your Name 55%
  4. Raphael Saadiq, Mary J. Blige, Taura Stinson for “Mighty River” from Mudbound 45%
  5. Common, Diane Warren for “Stand Up for Something” from Marshall 40%

Original Score

  1. Alexandre Desplat for The Shape of Water 100% winner [called it]
  2. Hans Zimmer for Dunkirk 75%
  3. Carter Burwell for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 45%
  4. Johnny Greenwood for Phantom Thread/John Williams for Star Wars: The Last Jedi 40%
  5. –tie

Live Action Short

  1. Reed Van Dyk for DeKalb Elementary 80%
  2. Chris Overton, Rachel Shenton for The Silent Child 70% Winner [missed it: 4 points]
  3. Katja Benrath, Tobias Rosen for Watu Wote: All of Us 65%
  4. Derin Seale, Josh Lawson for The Eleven O’Clock 50%
  5. Kevin Wilson Jr. for My Nephew Emmett 35%

Animated Short

  1. Glen Keane, Kobe Bryant for Dear Basketball 85% Winner [called it]
  2. Jakob Schuh, Jan Lachauer for Revolting Rhymes Part One 60%
  3. Victor Caire, Gabriel Grapperon for Garden Party/Max Porter, Ru Kuwahata for Negative Space 55%
  4. –tie
  5. Dave Mullins, Dana Murray for Lou 45%

Animated Feature

  1. Lee Unkrich, Darla K. Anderson for Coco 100% Winner [called it]
  2. Dorota Kobiela, Hugh Welchman, Ivan Mactaggart for Loving Vincent 80%
  3. Nora Twomey, Anthony Leo for The Breadwinner 55%
  4. Carlos Saldanha for Ferdinand 40%
  5. Tom McGrath, Ramsey Ann Naito for The Boss Baby 25%

Documentary Short

  1. Laura Checkoway, Thomas Lee Wright for Edith+Eddie/Elaine McMillion Sheldon, Kerrin James Sheldon for Heroin(e) 85%
  2. –tie
  3. Frank Stiefel for Heaven Is a Traffic Jam on the 405 50% Winner [missed it: 3.5 points]
  4. Kate Davis, David Heilbroner for Traffic Stop 45%
  5. Thomas Lennon for Knife Skills 35%

Documentary Feature

  1. Agnes Varda, Rosalie Varda, Jr. for Faces Places 75%
  2. Kareem Abeed, Soeren Steen Jesperson, Feras Fayyad for Last Men in Aleppo 70%
  3. Bryan Fogel, Dan Cogan for Icarus/Yance Ford, Joslyn Barnes for Strong Island 55% Winner [missed: 2.5 points]
  4. –tie
  5. Steve James, Mark Mitten, Julie Goldman for Abacus: Small Enough to Jail 45%

Foreign Language

  1. A Fantastic Woman (Chile) 90% Winner [called it]
  2. The Square (Sweden) 70%
  3. On Body and Soul (Hungary)/The Insult (Lebanon) 50%
  4. –tie
  5. Loveless (Russia) 40%

Production Design

  1. Paul D. Austerberry, Shane Vieau, Jeffrey A. Melvin for The Shape of Water 90% Winner [called it]
  2. Nathan Crowley, Gary Fettis for Dunkirk/Dennis Gassner, Alessandra Querzola for Blade Runner 2049 65%
  3. –tie
  4. Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer for Darkest Hour 50%
  5. Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer for Beauty and the Beast 30%

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This post by Bufo Calvin originally appeared in the The Measured Circle blog. To support this or other blogs/organizations, buy Amazon Gift Cards from a link on the site, then use those to buy your items. There will be no cost to you, and a benefit to them.

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One Response to “BOPMadness final Oscar predictions (results will also appear here later)”

  1. Harold Delk Says:

    The only ones I have seen are A Fantastic Woman and
    The Square. And they are in the only category I care about. I shall watch Chopped or Hell’s Kitchen.

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