24 hours left to make your Oscar predictions! See our current odds

24 hours left to make your Oscar predictions! See our current odds

Want to make your predictions for the Oscar winners? They are due by noon Pacific time, Sunday March 4th (so I can get our final predictions out to the world before the show).

I’m going to include in this post where we are at time of writing, but I do expect the final numbers will be different. My intuition is that the more people who play, the more accurate we are as a group (and we’ve been pretty accurate in the past), so feel free to let people know about it!

Here are the links:

BOPMadness (Bufo’s Oscar Prediction Madness) 2018 Part 1:

https://1drv.ms/xs/s!AvkcopEaVSeijmSsbx6vG5Gcl96f?wdFormId=%7BE5793882%2D0660%2D4E4D%2DAB01%2DC36113A0B277%7D

BOPMadness (Bufo’s Oscar Prediction Madness) 2018 Part 2:

https://1drv.ms/xs/s!AvkcopEaVSeijmYLK7pAZBjqYs8w?wdFormId=%7BAF2B6048%2DE94B%2D426C%2DA3FF%2D5FF981F1FB14%7D

Please complete both parts, and make a guess for every nominee in every category. That’s what makes this work: data! 🙂 Also, use each number only once…if it is a five-nominee category, don’t give two nominees both the number 5. If you do…I guess I’ll have to randomize which one is which, but please use your intuition.

You don’t need to sign up or anything, just play. 🙂 I do require an e-mail address (which I use only for BOPMadness communications and do not share with the public) and I do require that you make guesses about every nominee in every category…the more answers, I think the better we should do (based on the wisdom of crowds).


Our odds at time of writing:

Best Picture: Call Me by Your Name Best Picture: Darkest Hour Best Picture: Dunkirk Best Picture: Get Out Best Picture: Lady Bird Best Picture: Phantom Thread Best Picture: The Post Best Picture: The Shape of Water Best Picture: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
33% 28% 69% 83% 58% 28% 22% 86% 92%
Lead Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis in Phantom Thread Lead Actor: Daniel Kaluuya in Get Out Lead Actor: Denzel Washington in Roman J. Israel, Esq. Lead Actor: Gary Oldman in Darkest Hour Lead Actor: Timothee Chalomet in Call Me by Your Name
55% 65% 30% 100% 50%
Lead Actress: Frances McDormand in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri Lead Actress: Margot Robbie in I, Tonya Lead Actress: Meryl Streep in The Post Lead Actress: Sally Hawkins in The Shape of Water Lead Actress: Saoirse Ronan in Lady Bird
100% 40% 20% 75% 65%
Supporting Actress: Allison Janney in I, Tonya Supporting Actress: Laurie Metcalf in Lady Bird Supporting Actress: Lesley Manville in Phantom Thread Supporting Actress: Mary J. Blige in Mudbound Supporting Actress: Octavia Spencer in The Shape of Water
95% 85% 40% 45% 35%
Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer in All the Money in the World Supporting Actor: Richard Jenkins in The Shape of Water Supporting Actor: Sam Rockwell in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri Supporting Actor: Willem Dafoe in The Florida Project Supporting Actor: Woody Harrelson in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
55% 50% 100% 65% 30%
Directing: Christopher Nolan for Dunkirk Directing: Greta Gerwig for Lady Bird Directing: Guillermo del Toro for The Shape of Water Directing: Jordan Peele for Get Out Directing: Paul Thomas Anderson for Phantom Thread
50% 65% 100% 65% 20%
Original Screenplay: Jordan Peele for Get Out Original Screenplay: Greta Gerwig for Lady Bird Original Screenplay: Kumail Nanjiani, Emily V. Gordon for The Big Sick Original Screenplay: Guillermo del Toro, Vanessa Taylor for The Shape of Water Original Screenplay: Martin McDonagh for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
95% 70% 25% 35% 75%
Adapted Screenplay: James Ivory for Call Me by Your Name Adapted Screenplay: Scott Frank, James Mangold, Michael Green for Logan Adapted Screenplay: Aaron Sorkin for Molly’s Game Adapted Screenplay: Dee Rees, Virgil Williams for Mudbound Adapted Screenplay: Scott Neustadter, Michael H. Weber for The Disaster Artist
100% 35% 60% 75% 30%
Cinematography: Roger Deakins for Blade Runner 2049 Cinematography: Bruno Delbonnel for the Darkest Hour Cinematography: Hoyte Van Hoytema for Dunkirk Cinematography: Rachel Morrison for Mudbound Cinematography: Dan Laustsen for The Shape of Water
70% 35% 75% 55% 65%
Costume: Jacqueline Durran for Beauty and the Beast Costume: Jacqueline Durran for Darkest Hour Costume: Mark Bridges for Phantom Thread Costume: Luis Sequiera for The Shape of Water Costume: Consolata Boyle for Victoria & Abdul
45% 40% 90% 75% 50%
Sound Mixing: Tim Cavigan, Mary H. Ellis, Julian Slater for Baby Driver Sound Mixing: Ron Bartlett, Doug Hemphill, Mac Ruth for Blade Runner 2049 Sound Mixing: Gregg Landaker, Gary Rizzo, Mark Weingarten for Dunkirk Sound Mixing: Michael Semanick, David Parker, Stuart Wilson, Ren Klyce for Star Wars: The Last Jedi Sound Mixing: Christian T. Cooke, Glen Gauthier, Brad Zoern for The Shape of Water
60% 45% 95% 50% 50%
Sound Editing: Julian Slater for Baby Driver Sound Editing: Mark A. Mangini, Theo Green for Blade Runner 2049 Sound Editing: Richard King, Alex Gibson for Dunkirk Sound Editing: Matthew Wood, Ren Klyce for Star Wars: The Last Jedi Sound Editing: Nathan Robitaille, Nelson Ferreira for The Shape of Water
60% 50% 95% 60% 35%
Film Editing: Paul Machliss, Jonathan Amos for Baby Driver Film Editing: Lee Smith for Dunkirk Film Editing: Tatiana S. Riegel for I, Tonya Film Editing: Sidney Wolinsky for The Shape of Water Film Editing: Jon Gregory for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
55% 95% 40% 60% 50%
Visual Effects: John Nelson, Gerd Nefzer, Paul Lambert, Richard R. Hoover for Blade Runner 2049 Visual Effects: Christopher Townsend, Guy Williams, Jonathan Fawkner, Daniel Sudnick for Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 Visual Effects: Stephen Rosenbaum,
Jeff White, Scott Benza, Michael Meinardus for Kong: Skull Island
Visual Effects: Ben Morris, Michael Mulholland, Neal Scanlan, Chris Corbould for Star Wars: The Last Jedi Visual Effects: Joe Letteri, Daniel Barrett, Dan Lemmon, Joel Whist for War for the Planet of the Apes
65% 65% 30% 70% 70%
Makeup and Hairstyling: Kazuhiro Tsuji, David Mainowski, Lucy Sibbick for Darkest Hour Makeup and Hairstyling: Daniel Phillips, Louis Sheppard for Victoria & Abdul Makeup and Hairstyling: Arjen Tuiten for Wonder
100% 42% 58%
Original Song: Sufjan Stevens for “Mystery of Love” from Call Me by Your Name Original Song: Kristen Anderson-Lopez, Robert Lopez for “Remember Me” from Coco Original Song: Common, Diane Warren for “Stand Up for Something” from Marshall Original Song: Raphael Saadiq, Mary J. Blige, Taura Stinson for “Mighty River” from Mudbound Original Song: Benj Pasek, Justin Paul for “This Is Me” from The Greatest Showman
5% 85% 40% 45% 75%
Original Song: Sufjan Stevens for “Mystery of Love” from Call Me by Your Name2 Original Score: Hans Zimmer for Dunkirk Original Score: Johnny Greenwood for Phantom Thread Original Score: John Williams for Star Wars: The Last Jedi Original Score: Alexandre Desplat for The Shape of Water Original Score: Carter Burwell for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
55% 75% 40% 40% 100% 45%
Animated Short: Glen Keane, Kobe Bryant for Dear Basketball Animated Short: Victor Caire, Gabriel Grapperon for Garden Party Animated Short: Dave Mullins, Dana Murray for Lou Animated Short: Max Porter, Ru Kuwahata for Negative Space Animated Short: Jakob Schuh, Jan Lachauer for Revolting Rhymes Part One
85% 55% 45% 55% 60%
Live Action Short: Reed Van Dyk for DeKalb Elementary Live Action Short: Kevin Wilson Jr. for My Nephew Emmett Live Action Short: Derin Seale, Josh Lawson for The Eleven O’Clock Live Action Short: Chris Overton, Rachel Shenton for The Silent Child Live Action Short: Katja Benrath, Tobias Rosen for Watu Wote: All of Us
80% 35% 50% 70% 65%

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This post by Bufo Calvin originally appeared in the The Measured Circle blog. To support this or other blogs/organizations, buy Amazon Gift Cards from a link on the site, then use those to buy your items. There will be no cost to you, and a benefit to them.

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