BOPMadness 2017 Oscar Predictions

BOPMadness 2017 Oscar Predictions

This is it!

Submissions are closed for BOPMadness (Bufo’s Oscar Prediction Madness) 2017!

We make our (aggregate) predictions public before the ceremony, so you can see how we do.

Here they are by category:

Email Address Team Predicted Winner Winner
Adapted Screenplay Arrival 40%
Adapted Screenplay Fences 64%
Adapted Screenplay Hidden Figures 78% X
Adapted Screenplay Lion 52%
Adapted Screenplay Moonlight 76%  X
Anim Feature Kubo 48%
Anim Feature Moana 70%
Anim Feature My Life as a Zucchini 36%
Anim Feature The Red Turtle 58%
Anim Feature Zootopia 92% X  X
Anim Short Blind Vaysha 54%
Anim Short Borrowed Time 52%
Anim Short Pear Cider and Cigarette 56%
Anim Short Pearl 72% X
Anim Short Piper 66%  X
BP Arrival 41%
BP Fences 57%
BP Hacksaw Ridge 29%
BP Hell or High Water 32%
BP Hidden Figures 69%
BP La La Land 91% X
BP Lion 63%
BP Manchester by the Sea 63%
BP Moonlight 73%  X
Cinematography Arrival 52%
Cinematography La La Land 88% X  X
Cinematography Lion 64%
Cinematography Moonlight 60%
Cinematography Silence 44%
Costume Allied 34%
Costume Fantastic Beasts 56%  X
Costume Florence Foster Jenkins 52%
Costume Jackie 88% X
Costume La La Land 72%
Directing Hacksaw Ridge 36%
Directing La La Land 90% X  X
Directing Manchester by the Sea 66%
Directing Moonlight 70%
Directing Villeneuve 42%
Doc Feature 13th 58%
Doc Feature Fire at Sea 60%
Doc Feature I Am Not Your Negro 76% X
Doc Feature Life, Animated 46%
Doc Feature O.J.: Made in America 66% X
Doc Short 4.1 Mile 68% X
Doc Short Extremis 58%
Doc Short Joe’s Violin 58%
Doc Short The White Helmets 62%  X
Doc Short Watani: My Homeland 60%
Film Editing Arrival 56%
Film Editing Hacksaw Ridge 62%  X
Film Editing Hell or High Water 46%
Film Editing La La Land 82% X
Film Editing Moonlight 56%
Foreign Film A Man Called Ove 54%
Foreign Film Land of Mine 48%
Foreign Film Tanna 46%
Foreign Film The Salesman 84% X  X
Foreign Film Toni Erdmann 66%
Lead Actor Affleck 92% X  X
Lead Actor Andrew Garfield 34%
Lead Actor Denzel Washington 76%
Lead Actor Ryan Gosling 62%
Lead Actor Viggo Mortensen 36%
Lead Actress Emma Stone 92% X  X
Lead Actress Huppert 60%
Lead Actress Meryl Streep 38%
Lead Actress Natalie Portman 62%
Lead Actress Ruth Negga 50%
Live Short Ennemis Interieurs 60%
Live Short La Femme et le TGV 48%
Live Short Silent Nights 62%
Live Short Sing 66% X  X
Live Short Timecode 64%
Makeup A Man Called Ove 57%
Makeup Star Trek Beyond 73% X
Makeup Suicide Squad 70%  X
Original Screenplay 20th Century Women 34%
Original Screenplay Hell or High Water 48%
Original Screenplay La La Land 74%
Original Screenplay Manchester by the Sea 80% X  X
Original Screenplay The Lobster 48%
Production Design Arrival 66%
Production Design Fantastic Beasts 58%
Production Design Hail, Caesar! 54%
Production Design La La Land 86% X  X
Production Design Passengers 36%
Score Jackie 58%
Score La La Land 90% X  X
Score Lion 60%
Score Moonlight 66%
Score Passengers 30%
Song Audition (The Fools Who Dream): La La Land 50%
Song Can’t Stop the Feeling: Trolls 68%
Song City of Stars: La La Land 88% X  X
Song How Far I’ll Go: Moana 58%
Song The Empty Chair: Jim The James Foley 36%
Sound Editing Arrival 62%  X
Sound Editing Deepwater Horizon 48%
Sound Editing Hacksaw Ridge 74% X
Sound Editing La La Land 72%
Sound Editing Sully 44%
Sound Mixing 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi (disqualified) 30%
Sound Mixing Arrival 64%
Sound Mixing Hacksaw Ridge 70%  X
Sound Mixing La La Land 86% X
Sound Mixing Rogue One: A Star Wars Story 50%
Supp Actor Ali 88% X  X
Supp Actor Dev Patel 78%
Supp Actor Jeff Bridges 56%
Supp Actor Lucas Hedges 46%
Supp Actor Michael Shannon 38%
Supp Actress Davis 100% X  X
Supp Actress Michelle Williams 62%
Supp Actress Naomie Harris 54%
Supp Actress Nicole Kidman 44%
Supp Actress Octavia Spencer 52%
Visual Effects Deepwater Horizon 38%
Visual Effects Doctor Strange 54%
Visual Effects Kubo and the Two Strings 48%
Visual Effects Rogue One: A Star Wars Story 84% X
Visual Effects The Jungle Book 80%  X

and here they are by percent chance of winning, with the surest things on the top and the longest shots on the bottom:

Email Address Team Predicted Winner Winner
Supp Actress Davis 100% X
Anim Feature Zootopia 92% X
Lead Actor Affleck 92% X
Lead Actress Emma Stone 92% X
BP La La Land 91% X
Directing La La Land 90% X
Score La La Land 90% X
Cinematography La La Land 88% X
Costume Jackie 88% X
Song City of Stars: La La Land 88% X
Supp Actor Ali 88% X
Production Design La La Land 86% X
Sound Mixing La La Land 86% X
Foreign Film The Salesman 84% X
Visual Effects Rogue One: A Star Wars Story 84% X
Film Editing La La Land 82% X
Original Screenplay Manchester by the Sea 80% X
Visual Effects The Jungle Book 80%
Adapted Screenplay Hidden Figures 78% X
Supp Actor Dev Patel 78%
Adapted Screenplay Moonlight 76%
Doc Feature I Am Not Your Negro 76% X
Lead Actor Denzel Washington 76%
Original Screenplay La La Land 74%
Sound Editing Hacksaw Ridge 74% X
BP Moonlight 73%
Makeup Star Trek Beyond 73% X
Anim Short Pearl 72% X
Costume La La Land 72%
Sound Editing La La Land 72%
Anim Feature Moana 70%
Directing Moonlight 70%
Makeup Suicide Squad 70%
Sound Mixing Hacksaw Ridge 70%
BP Hidden Figures 69%
Doc Short 4.1 Miles 68% X
Song Can’t Stop the Feeling: Trolls 68%
Anim Short Piper 66%
Directing Manchester by the Sea 66%
Doc Feature O.J.: Made in America 66%
Foreign Film Toni Erdmann 66%
Live Short Sing 66% X
Production Design Arrival 66%
Score Moonlight 66%
Adapted Screenplay Fences 64%
Cinematography Lion 64%
Live Short Timecode 64%
Sound Mixing Arrival 64%
BP Lion 63%
BP Manchester by the Sea 63%
Doc Short The White Helmets 62%
Film Editing Hacksaw Ridge 62%
Lead Actor Ryan Gosling 62%
Lead Actress Natalie Portman 62%
Live Short Silent Nights 62%
Sound Editing Arrival 62%
Supp Actress Michelle Williams 62%
Cinematography Moonlight 60%
Doc Feature Fire at Sea 60%
Doc Short Watani: My Homeland 60%
Lead Actress Huppert 60%
Live Short Ennemis Interieurs 60%
Score Lion 60%
Anim Feature The Red Turtle 58%
Doc Feature 13th 58%
Doc Short Extremis 58%
Doc Short Joe’s Violin 58%
Production Design Fantastic Beasts 58%
Score Jackie 58%
Song How Far I’ll Go: Moana 58%
BP Fences 57%
Makeup A Man Called Ove 57%
Anim Short Pear Cider and Cigarette 56%
Costume Fantastic Beasts 56%
Film Editing Arrival 56%
Film Editing Moonlight 56%
Supp Actor Jeff Bridges 56%
Anim Short Blind Vaysha 54%
Foreign Film A Man Called Ove 54%
Production Design Hail, Caesar! 54%
Supp Actress Naomie Harris 54%
Visual Effects Doctor Strange 54%
Adapted Screenplay Lion 52%
Anim Short Borrowed Time 52%
Cinematography Arrival 52%
Costume Florence Foster Jenkins 52%
Supp Actress Octavia Spencer 52%
Lead Actress Ruth Negga 50%
Song Audition (The Fools Who Dream): La La Land 50%
Sound Mixing Rogue One: A Star Wars Story 50%
Anim Feature Kubo 48%
Foreign Film Land of Mine 48%
Live Short La Femme et le TGV 48%
Original Screenplay Hell or High Water 48%
Original Screenplay The Lobster 48%
Sound Editing Deepwater Horizon 48%
Visual Effects Kubo and the Two Strings 48%
Doc Feature Life, Animated 46%
Film Editing Hell or High Water 46%
Foreign Film Tanna 46%
Supp Actor Lucas Hedges 46%
Cinematography Silence 44%
Sound Editing Sully 44%
Supp Actress Nicole Kidman 44%
Directing Villeneuve 42%
BP Arrival 41%
Adapted Screenplay Arrival 40%
Lead Actress Meryl Streep 38%
Supp Actor Michael Shannon 38%
Visual Effects Deepwater Horizon 38%
Anim Feature My Life as a Zucchini 36%
Directing Hacksaw Ridge 36%
Lead Actor Viggo Mortensen 36%
Production Design Passengers 36%
Song The Empty Chair: Jim The James Foley 36%
Costume Allied 34%
Lead Actor Andrew Garfield 34%
Original Screenplay 20th Century Women 34%
BP Hell or High Water 32%
Score Passengers 30%
Sound Mixing 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi (disqualified) 30%
BP Hacksaw Ridge 29%

Thanks to everybody who played! I’ll update this with the winners, and get the individual results to the players in the next few days.

We’ll know soon!

See you in the movies!

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