2016 Movie Box Office: 40, 80, 1, 2 , 3

2016 Movie Box Office: 40, 80, 1, 2 , 3

It’s always fun to watch the movie box office. Of course, some movies cost more to make than others…much, much more.  There’s also a complicating factor, since people pay a few dollars more for 3-D movies.  It would be nice to have actual admissions shown, but we don’t get that.

Also, naturally, movies do make more the longer they’ve been in release (especially if there is a re-release, but that’s a different story).

I used to figure that it took twenty million dollars to get on the radar, but I’ve updated that.  I now figure the break point is forty million dollars.  I hit the points after that as eighty million, one hundred million, two hundred million, and three hundred million (almost nothing gets past four…three movies did in 2012, and three in 2013, none for 2014, and three will for 2015). We think it likely that at least one movie will in 2016 (even with The Force Awakens still dominating the story for part of the year), but let’s leave the page title the way it is.

As a new feature started in 2013, we decided to label movies, to make their profitability clearer.

A traditional measure of success is the dogro being twice the production budget. Using that as a starting point…

Dogro 2X production budget = “Money”
Dogro 3X production budget = “Golden”
Dogro 30x production budget = “Platinum” (God’s Not Dead prompted this new designation)

Dogro less than 50% of production budget = “Underachiever”

Here are the results as of June 10, 2017 (we will continue at least until no 2016 release is in the top ten for the week…although if that happens before the Oscars, we will look later for an Oscar bump. NOTE: June 10th marked the second week in a row where none of these changes, so we will not be checking this year for updates going forward):

40 million

80 million

100 million

200 million

300 million

Dogros marked with an * were in the top ten when we updated this list.
Dogros marked with an = have not changed from the previous week. That doesn’t mean that they won’t earn any more money, but it suggests that the initial arc is over, or that the studio has not reported for the week before we update the list.

Projected (we are confident that these movies will appear on the list…USA release dates are shown, subject to change, when known):

Possible (we are less confident in these, but wouldn’t be surprised if they dogro at least $40m)

A version of this list ranking them in order of most profitable (domestic gross versus reported production budget) will be available in the future (link to be added later).
These movies did not make it to the list above because they did not dogro $40.0m. We will note two kinds: ones that have dogroed triple their production budget (Golden) or had a production budget of at $40.0m and have not dogroed half of their budget (Underachiever). Golden Sub-40s may appear here before their run is done and they may earn more dogro (particularly if they are nominated for or win Oscars). Underachiever Sub-40s are not added here until that status seems very likely (we will typically wait at least two months from the release date).
Golden Sub-40s:
  • The Boy $35.8m (reported budget: $10.0m)
  • Ouija: Origin of Evil $34.9 (reported budget: $9.0m)
  • God’s Not Dead 2 $20.8m (reported budget: $5.0m)
  • Blair Witch $20.7m (reported budget: $5.0m)
  • Love & Friendship $14.0m (reported budget: $3.0m)

Underperformer Sub-40s (budget at least $40.0m):

  • Gods of Egypt $31.1m (reported budget: $140.0m) | USA release date: 02/26/16
  • The Finest Hours $27.6m (reported budget: $80.0m) | USA release date 01/29/16
  • Ben-Hur $26.4m (reported budget: $100.0m) | USA release date 08/19/16
  • Free State of Jones $20.8m (reported budget: $50.0m) | USA release date 06/24/16
  • Keeping Up with the Joneses $14.9m (reported budget: $40.0m) | USA release date 10/21/16
This page by Bufo Calvin originally appeared in the The Measured Circle blog.

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