2015 BOPMadness (Bufo’s Oscar Prediction Madness) predictions

2015 BOPMadness (Bufo’s Oscar Prediction Madness) predictions

Thank you once again to everyone who made predictions this year!

It will be very interesting to see how we do…there are some very tight races this year!

Here are our predictions:

Best Picture:

1. Boyhood (Richard Linklater, Cathleen Sutherland) 76% chance
2. Birdman (Alejandro González Iñárritu, John Lesher, James W. Skotchdopole) 75% chance Winner
3. Selma (Christian Colson, Oprah Winfrey, Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner) 60% chance
4. The Grand Budapest Hotel (Wes Anderson, Scott Rudin, Steven M. Rales, Jeremy Dawson) 51% chance
5. American Sniper (Clint Eastwood, Robert Lorenz, Andrew Lazar, Bradley Cooper, Peter Morgan) 49% chance
6. The Imitation Game (Nora Grossman, Ido Ostrowsky, Teddy Schwarzman) 43% chance (tie)
6. The Theory of Everything (Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, Lisa Bruce, Anthony McCarten) 43% chance (tie)
8. Whiplash (Jason Blum, Helen Estabrook, David Lancaster) 41% chance

Lead Actor:

1. Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything) 91% chance Winner correct
2. Michael Keaton (Birdman) 76% chance
3. Bradley Cooper (American Sniper) 49% chance
4. Benedict Cumberbatch (The Imitation Game) 47% chance
5. Steve Carell (Foxcatcher) 40% chance
Lead Actress:
1. Julianne Moore (Still Alice) 92% chance Winner correct
2. Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl) 58% chance
3, Reese Witherspoon (Wild) 52% chance
4. Marion Cotillard (Two Days, One Night) 50% chance
5. Felicity Jones (The Theory of Everything) 48% chance
Supporting Actor:
1. J.K. Simmons (Whiplash) 86% chance Winner (correct)
2. Edward Norton (Birdman) 62% chance
3. Ethan Hawke (Boyhood) 58% chance
4. Robert Duvall (The Judge) 52% chance
5. Mark Ruffalo (Foxcatcher) 42% chance
Supporting Actress:
1. Patricia Arquette (Boyhood) 90% chance Winner correct
2. Emma Stone (Birdman) 66% chance
3. Laura Dern (Wild) 52% chance (tie)
3. Meryl Streep (Into the Woods) 52% chance (tie)
5. Keira Knightley (The Imitation Game) 40% chance
Director:
1. Richard Linklater (Boyhood) 86% chance
2. Alejandro González Iñárritu (Birdman) 80% chance Winner
3. Wes Anderson (The Grand Budapest Hotel) 58% chance
4. Morten Tyldum (The Imitation Game) 46% chance
5. Bennett Miller (Foxcatcher) 30% chance
Adapted Screenplay:
1. The Imitation Game (Graham Moore) 72% chance (tie)  Winner (half correct)
1. The Theory of Everything (Anthony McCarten) 72% chance (tie)
3. Whiplash (Damien Chazelle) 62% chance
4. American Sniper (Jason Hall) 52% chance
5. Inherent Vice (Paul Thomas Anderson) 42% chance
Original Screenplay:
1. The Grand Budapest Hotel (Wes Anderson, Hugo Guinness) 78% chance
2. Boyhood (Richard Linklater) 76% chance
3. Birdman (Alejandro González Iñárritu, Nicolás Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris, Armando Bo) 74% chance Winner
4. Foxcatcher (E. Max Frye, Dan Futterman) 44% chance
5. Nightcrawler (Dan Gilroy) 28% chance
Cinematography:
1.Birdman (Emmanuel Lubezki) 76% chance (tie) Winner (half correct)
1.The Grand Budapest Hotel (Robert D. Yeoman) 76% chance (tie)
3. Unbroken (Roger Deakins) 52% chance
4. Mr. Turner (Dick Pope) 50% chance
5. Ida (Lukasz Zal, Ryszard Lenczewski) 46% chance
Costume Design:
1. The Grand Budapest Hotel (Milena Canonero) 80% chance Winner correct
2. Into the Woods (Colleen Atwood) 78% chance
3. Mr. Turner (2014): Jacqueline Durran) 58% chance
4. Maleficent (Anna B. Sheppard, Jane Clive) 48% chance
5. Inherent Vice (Mark Bridges) 36% chance
Film Editing:
1. Boyhood (Sandra Adair) 84% chance
2. The Grand Budapest Hotel (Barney Pilling) 62% chance (tie)
3. American Sniper (Joel Cox, Gary Roach) 62% chance (tie)
4. Whiplash (Tom Cross) 54% chance Winner
5. The Imitation Game (William Goldenberg) 28% chance
Makeup & Hairstyling:
1. The Grand Budapest Hotel (Frances Hannon, Mark Coulier) 87% chance Winner correct
2. Foxcatcher (Bill Corso, Dennis Liddiard) 57% chance (tie)
2. Guardians of the Galaxy (Elizabeth Yianni-Georgiou, David White) 57% chance (tie)
Production Design:
1.The Grand Budapest Hotel (Adam Stockhausen, Anna Pinnock) 86% chance Winner correct
2. Into the Woods (Dennis Gassner, Anna Pinnock) 68% chance
3. The Imitation Game (Maria Djurkovic, Tatiana Macdonald) 60% chance
4. Mr. Turner (Suzie Davies, Charlotte Watts) 48% chance
5. Interstellar (Nathan Crowley, Gary Fettis) 28% chance
Sound Editing:
1. American Sniper (Alan Robert Murray, Bub Asman) 90% chance Winner correct
2. Birdman (Aaron Glascock, Martín Hernández) 58% chance (tie)
2. Interstellar (Richard King) 58% chance (tie)
4. Unbroken (Becky Sullivan, Andrew DeCristofaro) 56% chance
5. The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies (Brent Burge, Jason Canovas) 38% chance
Sound Mixing:
1. American Sniper (John T. Reitz, Gregg Rudloff, Walt Martin) 78% chance
2. Whiplash (Craig Mann, Ben Wilkins, Thomas Curley) 66% chance Winner
3. Birdman (on Taylor, Frank A. Montaño, Thomas Varga) 56% chance
4. Unbroken (Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montaño, David Lee) 52% chance
5. Interstellar (Gary Rizzo, Gregg Landaker, Mark Weingarten) 48% chance
Visual Effects:
1. Interstellar (Paul J. Franklin, Andrew Lockley, Ian Hunter, Scott R. Fisher) 84% chance Winner correct
2. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes (Joe Letteri, Dan Lemmon, Daniel Barrett, Erik Winquist) 74% chance
3. Guardians of the Galaxy (Stephane Ceretti, Nicolas Aithadi, Jonathan Fawkner, Paul Corbould) 68% chance
4. X-Men: Days of Future Past (Richard Stammers, Lou Pecora, Tim Crosbie, Cameron Waldbauer) 40% chance
5. Captain America: The Winter Soldier (Dan Deleeuw, Russell Earl, Bryan Grill, Daniel Sudick) 34% chance
Animated Feature:
1. How to Train Your Dragon 2 73% chance
2. Big Hero Six 71% chance Winner
3. The Boxtrolls 56% chance (tie)
3. The Tale of the Princess Kaguya 56% chance (tie)
5. Song of the Sea 44% chance
Documentary Feature:
1. Virunga (Orlando von Einsiedel, Joanna Natasegara) 67% chance
2. Citizenfour: Laura Poitras, Mathilde Bonnefoy, Dirk Wilutzky) 62% chance (tie) Winner
2. Last Days in Vietnam (Rory Kennedy, Keven McAlester) 62% chance (tie)
4. Finding Vivian Maier (John Maloof, Charlie Siskel)  58% chance
5. The Salt of the Earth (Wim Wenders, Juliano Ribeiro Salgado, David Rosier) 51% chance
Documentary Short:
1. White Earth (Christian Jensen) 78% chance
2. Joanna (Aneta Kopacz) 62% chance
3. Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1 (Ellen Goosenberg Kent, Dana Perry) 56% chance (tie) Winner
3. The Reaper (Gabriel Serra) 56% chance (tie)
5. Our Curse (Tomasz Sliwinski, Maciej Slesicki) 49% chance
Foreign Language Film:
1. Ida (Pawel Pawlikowski) 80% chance Winner correct
2. Timbuktu (Abderrahmane Sissako) 58% chance
3. Leviathan (Andrey Zvyagintsev) 56% chance (tie)
3. Wild Tales (Damián Szifrón) 56% chance (tie)
5. Tangerines (Zaza Urushadze) 51% chance
Music – Score:
1. The Theory of Everything (Jóhann Jóhannsson) 84% chance
2. The Grand Budapest Hotel (Alexandre Desplat) 76% chance Winner
3. The Imitation Game (Alexandre Desplat) 58% chance
4. Mr. Turner (Gary Yershon) 42% chance
5. Interstellar (Hans Zimmer) 40% chance
Music – Song:
1. Selma (Common, John Legend) (Glory) 90% chance Winner correct
2. Glen Campbell: I’ll Be Me (Glen Campbell, Julian Raymond) (I’m Not Gonna Miss You)  68% chance
3. The Lego Movie (Shawn Patterson) (Everything is Awesome) 60% chance
4. Begin Again (Gregg Alexander, Danielle Brisebois) (Lost Stars) 43% chance
5. Beyond the Lights (Diane Warren) (Grateful) 40% chance
Short – Animated:
1. Feast (Patrick Osborne, Kristina Reed) 89% chance Winner correct
2. The Dam Keeper (Robert Kondo, Daisuke ‘Dice’ Tsutsumi) 64% chance
3. A Single Life (Joris Oprins) 53% chance
4. The Bigger Picture (Daisy Jacobs, Chris Hees) 47% chance (tie)
4. Me and My Moulton (Torill Kove) 47% chance (tie)
Short – Live Action:
1. The Phone Call (Mat Kirkby, James Lucas) 76% chance Winner correct
2. Parvaneh (Talkhon Hamzavi, Stefan Eichenberger) 67% chance
3. Boogaloo and Graham (Michael Lennox, Ronan Blaney) 64% chance
4. Butter Lamp (Wei Hu, Julien Féret) 51% chance
5. Aya (Oded Binnun, Mihal Brezis) 42% chance
Our best bets (90% or higher):
  1. Lead Actress: Julianne Moore 92%
  2. Lead Actor: Eddie Remayne: 91%
  3. Supporting Actress: Patricia Arquette: 90%
  4. Music – Song: Glory from Selma: 90%
  5. Sound Editing: American Sniper 90%

We have some very close races this year!

  1. Adapted Screenplay tied for The Imitation Game and the Theory of Everything
  2. Cinematography tied for Birdman and The Grand Budapest Hotel
  3. Best Picture: we have Boyhood edging out Birdman by 1%!

See you in the movies!

Update: here is a summary of the results.

We weren’t quite as accurate as a team in 2015 as we were in 2014.

Overall, we were at 74.55% this year, versus 77.38% last year.

We were better on the Incredibly Difficult Maven section this year (74.55%) versus last year 68.07%.

On the Big Six (acting, Picture, Director) we got 88.33% this year, beating last years 79.41%.

Our individual winners were:

  • Big Six was Jimmy Orsag…with a perfect 100%!
  • The Incredibly Difficult Maven section was Neil Lapinsky, with a remarkable 90.91%!
  • Neil also did well on the Big Six, which combined meant winning overall with 92.56%!

Congratulations to Jimmy and Neil!

They have won that most valuable of human possessions: braggin’ rights!🙂

As a group, we called all of the acting categories…but missed on both Director and Picture. We thought both would go to Boyhood, although Birdman was our second choice.

We were most shocked by the Documentary Short, only getting a 55.56%.

I would say that generally, we slightly underestimated Birdman (I didn’t think the Academy would go that geeky, for example), and Whiplash surprised us with technical wins.

Hope everybody reading this will play next year!

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This post by Bufo Calvin originally appeared in the  The Measured Circle blog. To support this or other blogs/organizations, buy  Amazon Gift Cards from a link on the site, then use those to buy your items. There will be no cost to you, and a benefit to them.

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