2014 BOPmadness (Bufo’s Oscar Prediction Madness) predictions

2014 BOPmadness (Bufo’s Oscar Prediction Madness) predictions

Thank you to everyone who made predictions!

This is being published prior to the Oscar ceremony.

Based on our respondents, this seems like it was a particularly difficult year: I don’t recall scores being this close (including two ties).

Let’s start out with the probability we collectively assigned each nominee:

Category Nominee Percent Projected Winner
Makeup & Hair Styling Dallas Buyers Club 87.50% Projected Winner
Cinematography Gravity 85.00% Projected Winner
Best Picture 12 Years a Slave 84.72% Projected Winner
Music: Song Let It Go from Frozen 84.38% Projected Winner
Lead Actress Cate Blanchett 82.50% Projected Winner
Supporting Actress Lupito Nyong’o 82.50% Projected Winner
Sound Mixing Gravity 82.50% Projected Winner
Animated Feature Frozen 82.50% Projected Winner
Best Picture American Hustle 81.94%
Lead Actor Chiwetel Ejiofor 80.00% Projected Winner
Lead Actor Matthew McConaughey 80.00% Projected Winner
Costume Design American Hustle 80.00% Projected Winner
Visual Effects Gravity 80.00% Projected Winner
Supporting Actor Jared Leto 77.50% Projected Winner
Director 12 Years a Slave 77.50% Projected Winner
Sound Editing Gravity 77.50% Projected Winner
Documentary Short The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life 77.50% Projected Winner
Cinematography Nebraska 75.00%
Film Editing Gravity 75.00% Projected Winner
Documentary Feature The Act of Killing 75.00% Projected Winner
Animated Short Get a Horse! 75.00% Projected Winner
Costume Design The Great Gatsby 72.50%
Costume Design 12 Years a Slave 72.50%
Production Design The Great Gatsby 72.50% Projected Winner
Sound Mixing Captain Phillips 72.50%
Documentary Feature 20 Feet from Stardom 72.50%
Foreign Language Film The Great Beauty 72.50% Projected Winner
Music Score Philomena 72.50% Projected Winner
Live Action Short Helium 72.50% Projected Winner
Live Action Short The Voorman Problem 72.50% Projected Winner
Supporting Actor Barkhad Abdi 70.00%
Director American Hustle 70.00%
Visual Effects The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug 67.50%
Makeup & Hair Styling The Lone Ranger 66.67%
Supporting Actress Jennifer Lawrence 65.00%
Production Design American Hustle 65.00%
Production Design Gravity 65.00%
Sound Editing Captain Phillips 65.00%
Documentary Feature The Square 65.00%
Music Score Gravity 65.00%
Best Picture Dallas Buyers Club 62.50%
Director Gravity 62.50%
Cinematography Prisoners 62.50%
Production Design 12 Years a Slave 62.50%
Animated Feature Despicable Me 2 62.50%
Animated Feature The Wind Rises 62.50%
Documentary Short Facing Fear 62.50%
Foreign Language Film The Broken Circle Breakdown 62.50%
Music Score Saving Mr. Banks 62.50%
Music: Song Ordinary Love from Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom 62.50%
Animated Short Mr. Hublot 62.50%
Best Picture Gravity 61.11%
Lead Actress Amy Adams 60.00%
Supporting Actor Bradley Cooper 60.00%
Documentary Short Prison Terminal: The Last Days of Private Jack Hall 60.00%
Foreign Language Film Omar 60.00%
Music Score Her 60.00%
Supporting Actor Michael Fassbender 57.50%
Supporting Actress Sally Hawkins 57.50%
Sound Editing The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug 57.50%
Sound Mixing Inside Llewyn Davis 57.50%
Visual Effects Iron Man 3 57.50%
Animated Short Room on the Broom 57.50%
Live Action Short Avant Que De Tout Perdre 57.50%
Music: Song The Moon Song from Her 56.25%
Supporting Actress Julia Roberts 55.00%
Film Editing American Hustle 55.00%
Film Editing 12 Years a Slave 55.00%
Documentary Short CaveDigger 55.00%
Animated Short Possessions 55.00%
Lead Actress Judi Dench 52.50%
Lead Actress Sandra Bullock 52.50%
Lead Actress Meryl Streep 52.50%
Sound Editing All Is Lost 52.50%
Animated Feature Ernest & Celstine 52.50%
Foreign Language Film The Hunt 52.50%
Foreign Language Film The Missing Picture 52.50%
Lead Actor Bruce Dern 50.00%
Director The Wolf of Wall Street 50.00%
Visual Effects Star Trek Into Darkness 50.00%
Animated Short Feral 50.00%
Live Action Short Aquel No Era Yo 50.00%
Best Picture The Wolf of Wall Street 48.61%
Lead Actor Leonardo DiCaprio 47.50%
Sound Editing Lone Survivor 47.50%
Documentary Feature Dirty Wars 47.50%
Live Action Short Pitaako Mun Kakki Hoitaa 47.50%
Music: Song Happy from Despicable Me 2 46.88%
Makeup & Hair Styling Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa 45.83%
Sound Mixing Lone Survivor 45.00%
Visual Effects The Lone Ranger 45.00%
Documentary Short Karama Has No Walls 45.00%
Best Picture Captain Phillips 44.44%
Best Picture Nebraska 43.06%
Lead Actor Christian Bale 42.50%
Director Nebraska 42.50%
Cinematography Inside Llewyn Davis 42.50%
Sound Mixing The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug 42.50%
Supporting Actress June Squibb 40.00%
Film Editing Captain Phillips 40.00%
Animated Feature The Croods 40.00%
Documentary Feature Cutie and the Boxer 40.00%
Music Score The Book Thief 40.00%
Best Picture Her 37.50%
Costume Design The Grandmaster 37.50%
Costume Design The Invisible Woman 37.50%
Film Editing Dallas Buyers Club 37.50%
Supporting Actor Jonah Hill 35.00%
Cinematography The Grandmaster 35.00%
Production Design Her 35.00%
Best Picture Philomena 34.72%

As you can see, we are most sure about Dallas Buyers Club getting Makeup and Hair Styling. We would be most shocked if Philomena won Best Picture. We split on Lead Actor and Live Action Short.

Here’s how it looks just for projected winners:

Category
Nominee
Percent
Projected Winner
Makeup & Hair Styling Dallas Buyers Club 87.50% Projected Winner
Cinematography Gravity 85.00% Projected Winner
Best Picture 12 Years a Slave 84.72% Projected Winner
Music: Song Let It Go from Frozen 84.38% Projected Winner
Lead Actress Cate Blanchett 82.50% Projected Winner
Supporting Actress Lupito Nyong’o 82.50% Projected Winner
Sound Mixing Gravity 82.50% Projected Winner
Animated Feature Frozen 82.50% Projected Winner
Lead Actor Chiwetel Ejiofor 80.00% Projected Winner
Lead Actor Matthew McConaughey 80.00% Projected Winner
Costume Design American Hustle 80.00% Projected Winner
Visual Effects Gravity 80.00% Projected Winner
Supporting Actor Jared Leto 77.50% Projected Winner
Director 12 Years a Slave 77.50% Projected Winner
Sound Editing Gravity 77.50% Projected Winner
Documentary Short The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life 77.50% Projected Winner
Film Editing Gravity 75.00% Projected Winner
Documentary Feature The Act of Killing 75.00% Projected Winner
Animated Short Get a Horse! 75.00% Projected Winner
Production Design The Great Gatsby 72.50% Projected Winner
Foreign Language Film The Great Beauty 72.50% Projected Winner
Music Score Philomena 72.50% Projected Winner
Live Action Short Helium 72.50% Projected Winner
Live Action Short The Voorman Problem 72.50% Projected Winner

We apologize that formatting precludes putting all of the nominees’ names, or identifying the movies in the acting categories. That information did appear in the surveys, which were available here:

2014 BOPMadness (Bufo’s Oscar Prediction Madness)

See you in the movies!

Update: we inadvertently left off our predictions for screenplay:

Adapted Screenplay Before Midnight 45.00% 18 8 5
Adapted Screenplay Captain Phillips 55.00% 22 8 5
Adapted Screenplay Philomena 97.50% Projected Winner 39 8 5
Adapted Screenplay 12 Years a Slave 90.00% 36 8 5
Adapted Screenplay The Wolf of Wall Street 72.50% 29 8 5
Original Screenplay American Hustle 37.50% 15 8 5
Original Screenplay Blue Jasmine 72.50% 29 8 5
Original Screenplay Dallas Buyers Club 62.50% 25 8 5
Original Screenplay Her 75.00% Projected Winner 30 8 5
Original Screenplay Nebraska 52.50% 21 8 5

This post by Bufo Calvin originally appeared in the The Measured Circle.

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