2014 Movie Box Office: 40, 80, 1, 2 , 3

2014 Movie Box Office: 40, 80, 1, 2 , 3

It’s always fun to watch the movie box office. Of course, some movies cost more to make than others…much, much more.  There’s also a complicating factor, since people pay a few dollars more for 3-D movies.  It would be nice to have actual admissions shown, but we don’t get that.

Also, naturally, movies do make more the longer they’ve been in release (especially if there is a re-release, but that’s a different story).

I used to figure that it took twenty million dollars to get on the radar, but I’ve updated that.  I now figure the break point is forty million dollars.  I hit the points after that as eighty million, one hundred million, two hundred million, and three hundred million (almost nothing gets past four…three movies did in 2012, and it looks like two will in 2013. I think we’ll leave it the way it is for 2014, and reassess in 2015).

As a new feature started in 2013, we decided to label movies, to make their profitability clearer.

A traditional measure of success if the dogro being twice the production budget. Using that as a starting point…

Dogro 2X production budget = “Money”
Dogro 3X production budget = “Golden”
Dogro 30x production budget = “Platinum” (God’s Not Dead prompted this new designation)

Dogro less than 50% of production budget = “Underperformer”

Here are the results as of  May 16, 2015 (we will continue at least until no 2014 release is in the top ten for the week…although if that happens before the Oscars, we will look later for an Oscar bump. Note: on May 16, 2015, none of these movies changed their dogro from the previous week for the first time):

40 million

80 million

100 million

200 million

300 million

Dogros marked with an * were in the top ten when we updated this list.
Dogros marked with an = have not changed from the previous week. That doesn’t mean that they won’t earn any more money, but it suggests that the initial arc is over, or that the studio has not reported for the week before we update the list.

Projected (we are confident that these movies will appear on the list):

Possible (we only start these towards the end of the measurement period. These are titles which might get an Oscar bump ((possibly with a re-release)) are otherwise close to $40.0m, and still have a chance to make it):

  • Wild (reported budget: N/A) (Oscar noms: Best Actress, Best Supporting Actress) $37.5m…not likely to make it now, with a weekly dogro under $300,000 and dropping
  • Nightcrawler (reported budget: $8.5m) (Oscar noms: Best Original Screenplay)$32.4m…not going to make it, with a weekly dogro of under $100k and dropping
  • Birdman (reported budget: $18.0m) (Oscar noms: 9, including Best Picture, Best Actor, Best Supporting Actress, Best Supporting Actor): Update: made the list
  • The Theory of Everything (reported budget: $15.0m) (Oscar noms: 5, including Best Picture, Best Actor, Best Actress): $35.2m: unlikely to make it, but still possible. Weekly dogro in 2015 has been around a million, and the dropoff has not been huge (but happening). Something related in the news could be enough of a bump, although the odds are against it
  • Boyhood (reported budget: $4.0m) (Oscar noms: 6, including Best Picture, Best Supporting Actor, Best Supporting Actress, Director): $25.4m: being presumably edged out for Best Picture means this is not going to happen. Still, it’s a successful release…on a budget of about $4m, it’s double golden (with more than a 600% return)
  • Other Oscar nominated pictures would need such a major boost that, based on the noms and their dogros at time of writing, they seem less likely to break the $40m level. They include: Foxcatcher; Whiplash; Inherent Vice; Mr. Turner; Still Alice; and Two Days, One Night
A version of this list ranking them in order of most profitable (domestic gross versus reported production budget) will be available in the future (link to be added later).
These movies did not make it to the list above because they did not dogro $40.0m. We will note two kinds: ones that have dogroed triple their production budget (Golden) or had a production budget of at $40.0m and have not dogroed half of their budget (Underachievers). Golden Sub-40s may appear here before their run is one and they may earn more dogro (particularly if they are nominated for or win Oscars). Underachiever Sub-40s are not added here until that status seems very likely (we will typically wait at least two months from the release date).
Golden Sub-40s:

Underachiever Sub-40s (budget at least $40.0m):

This post by Bufo Calvin originally appeared in the The Measured Circle blog.

One Response to “2014 Movie Box Office: 40, 80, 1, 2 , 3”

  1. Will Into the Woods reverse the Depp Dip? | The Measured Circle Says:

    […] recorded both on this blog and on our IMDb […]

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