2013 BOPMadness (Bufo’s Oscar Prediction Madness) results
How did we do predicting this year’s Oscars?
As a group, we got 85%* of the possible score on the Big Six categories (the acting awards, Best Picture, Best Director), and called four out of six of them.
While we didn’t call Ang Lee (we went for Lincoln), it wasn’t a shock…he was our second choice (as a group), with a 71% probability to Spielberg’s 80%.
Christoph Waltz did surprise us (and, I think, a lot of people)…we had Tommy Lee Jones as a strong favorite (86%), and both Alan Arkin and Robert De Niro ahead of Waltz at 63% versus 49% for Waltz (we didn’t think this was Philip Seymour Hoffman’s year).
Scott Calvin is the winner on the Big Six…with 100%! Congratulations to Scott, who got those all correct.
When we get to the rest of the categories (which we call The Incredibly Difficult Maven section), we had a group score 72%. We called twelve out of the 18 categories, missing on the documentary categories, live action short, Production Design, and the screenwriting categories.
That’s not a great year for us, and there may have been some factors.
For one thing, I think it was a great movie year, perhaps the best since 1939. More high quality choices make it harder to pick.
Second, the mismatch in the number of Best Picture nominees and other category nominees can confuse things. This isn’t the first year that’s happened, but I think when a movie is up for Best Picture, you tend to weight it higher in other categories as well. You can see that impact in the screenwriting categories. This year, every adapted screenplay nominee was also up for Best Picture (as were three of the original screenplay nominees). Last year, only three of the Adapted Screenplay nominees were also Best Picture nominees…I think that muddies the water.
Congratulations to Mike Weston, who had an 89% on the Maven section, and was our winner there! Mike also got 91% on the Big Six, and was the overall winner, with 90%!
You can play next year! Watch this space…
* Numbers are tentative: we’ll double-check this later
This post by Bufo Calvin originally appeared in the The Measured Circle blog.