2013 BOPMadness Oscar Predictions (updated with Oscar winners)

2013 BOPMadness Oscar Predictions (updated with Oscar winners)

This is being published before the start of the 2012 Oscar broadcast. (It has been updated since then with Oscar results)

It’s based on aggregate analysis of the ballots submitted in the 2013 BOPMadness (Bufo’s Oscar Prediction Madness) contest.

Thanks to everyone who played! I’ll give individual results to the winners in the next few days. We announce a winner in the Big Six (the acting categories, director, and picture), the incredibly difficult Maven section (everything else), and overall.

Note: these have been updated since first published, but still before the announcements.

First, to keep it simple, here are our predictions:

THE BIG SIX

  • Best Picture: Argo  | Winner: Argo
  • Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis for Lincoln  | Winner: Daniel Day-Lewis
  • Best Actress: Jennifer Lawrence for Silver Linings Playbook  | Winner: Jennifer Lawrence
  • Best Supporting Actor: Tommy Lee Jones for Lincoln  | Winner: Christoph Waltz
  • Best Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway for Les Misérables  | Winner: Anne Hathaway
  • Best Director: Steven Spielberg for Lincoln  | Winner: Ang Lee

THE INCREDIBLY DIFFICULT MAVEN SECTION

  • Foreign Language: Amour (Austria)  | Winner: Amour
  • Adapted Screenplay:  Tony Kushner for Lincoln  | Winner: Argo
  • Original Screenplay: Mark Boal for Zero Dark Thirty  | Winner: Django Unchained
  • Production Design: Les Misérables  | Winner: Lincoln
  • Cinematography: Life of Pi  | Winner: Life of Pi
  • Editing: William Goldenberg for Argo Winner: Argo
  • Sound Mixing: Les Misérables  | Winner: Les Misérables
  • Sound Editing: Zero Dark Thirty*  | Winner: tie between Skyfall and Zero Dark Thirty (those were our first and second picks)
  • Score: Life of Pi  | Winner: Life of Pi
  • Song: Skyfall from Skyfall  | Winner; Skyfall
  • Costume: Anna Karenina  | Winner: Anna Karenina
  • Documentary Feature: How to Survive a Plague  | Winner: Searching for Sugar Man
  • Documentary Short: Mondays at Racine  | Winner: Inocente
  • Makeup & Hair Styling: Les Misérables  | Winner: Les Misérables
  • Animated Short: Paperman  | Winner: Paperman
  • Animated Feature: Brave  | Winner: Brave
  • Live Action Short: Asad  | Winner: Curfew
  • Visual Effects: Life of Pi  | Winner: Life of Pi

Now, here are our group predictions ranked in order of what we think is most probable (Amour for Foreign Language) to the least (Django Unchained for Best Picture):

Category Movie Nominee Probability
Best Actor Lincoln Daniel Day-Lewis 97%
Best Actress Silver Linings Playbook Jennifer Lawrence 97%
Best Picture Argo Grant Heslov, Ben Affleck, George Clooney 97%
Foreign Language  Film Amour Austria 94%
Animated Feature Brave Mark Andrews, Brenda Chapman 91%
Best Picture Lincoln Steven Spielberg, Kathleen Kennedy 90%
Supporting Actress Les Misérables Anne Hathaway 89%
Costume Anna Karenina Jacqueline Durran 89%
Supporting Actor Lincoln Tommy Lee Jones 86%
Costume Les Misérables Paco Delgado 86%
Makeup & Hair Styling Les Misérables Lisa Westcott, Julie Dartnell 86%
Animated Short Paperman John Kahrs 86%
Supporting Actress Lincoln Sally Field 83%
Score Life of Pi Mychael Danna 83%
Song Skyfall Skyfall by Adele, Paul Epworth 83%
Visual Effects Life of Pi Bill Westenhofer, Guillaume Rocheron, Erik De Boer, Donald Elliott 83%
Sound Editing Zero Dark Thirty Paul N.J. Ottosson 83%
Director Lincoln Steven Spielberg 80%
Original Screenplay Zero Dark Thirty Mark Boal 80%
Editing Argo William Goldenberg 80%
Cinematography Life of Pi Claudio Miranda 77%
Sound Editing Skyfall Per Hallberg, Karen M. Baker 77%
Song Les Misérables Suddenly by Alain Boublil, Claude-Michel Schönberg, Herbert Kretzmer 77%
Live Action Short Asad Bryan Buckley, Mino Jarjoura 77%
Documentary Feature How to Survive a Plague David France, Howard Gertler 74%
Visual Effects The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey Joe Letteri, Eric Saindon, David Clayton, R. Christopher White 74%
Best Picture Silver Linings Playbook Donna Gigliotti, Bruce Cohen, Jonathan Gordon 71%
Best Actress Zero Dark Thirty Jessica Chastain 71%
Director Life of Pi Ang Lee 71%
Adapted Screenplay Lincoln Tony Kushner 71%
Production Design Les Misérables Eve Stewart, Anna-Lynch Robinson 71%
Documentary Feature The Invisible War Kirby Dick, Amy Ziering 71%
Documentary Short Mondays at Racine Cynthia Wade, Robin Honan 71%
Makeup & Hair Styling The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey Peter King, Rick Findlater, Tami Lane 71%
Visual Effects The Avengers Janek Sirrs, Jeff White, Guy Williams, Daniel Sudick 71%
Cinematography Lincoln Janusz Kaminski 69%
Animated Short Adam and Dog Minkyu Lee 69%
Live Action Short Buzkashi Boys Sam French, Ariel Nasr 69%
Live Action Short Death of a Shadow Tom Van Avermaet, Ellen De Waele 69%
Adapted Screenplay Argo Chris Terrio 66%
Adapted Screenplay Life of Pi David Magee 66%
Adapted Screenplay Silver Linings Playbook David O. Russell 66%
Original Screenplay Amour Michael Haneke 66%
Original Screenplay Moonrise Kingdom Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola 66%
Production Design Lincoln Rick Carter, Jim Erickson 66%
Sound Mixing Les Misérables Andy Nelson, Mark Paterson, Simon Hayes 66%
Score Argo Alexandre Desplat 66%
Costume Lincoln Joanna Johnston 66%
Editing Zero Dark Thirty William Goldenberg, Dylan Tichenor 66%
Animated Feature Frankenweenie Tim Burton 66%
Best Actor Silver Linings Playbook Bradley Cooper 63%
Supporting Actor Argo Alan Arkin 63%
Supporting Actor Silver Linings Playbook Robert De Niro 63%
Cinematography Skyfall Roger Deakins 63%
Sound Mixing Life of Pi Ron Bartlett, Doug Hemphill, Drew Kunin 63%
Sound Mixing Lincoln Andy Nelson, Gary Rydstrom, Ron Judkins 63%
Documentary Short Inocente Sean Fine, Andrea Nix 63%
Editing Lincoln Michael Kahn 63%
Sound Editing Argo Erik Aadahl, Ethan Van der Ryn 60%
Score Skyfall Thomas Newman 60%
Song Ted Everybody Needs a Best Friend by Walter Murphy, Seth MacFarlane 60%
Documentary Feature The Gatekeepers Dror Moreh, Philippa Korwarsky, Estelle Fialon 60%
Documentary Short Open Heart Kief Davidson, Cori Shepherd Stern 60%
Animated Feature Wreck-It Ralph Rich Moore 60%
Best Picture Life of Pi Gil Netter, Ang Lee, David Womark 57%
Best Actor Les Misérables Hugh Jackman 57%
Best Actress Amour Emmanuelle Riva 57%
Director Silver Linings Playbook David O. Russell 57%
Foreign Language  Film War Witch Canada 57%
Foreign Language  Film A Royal Affair Denmark 57%
Production Design Anna Karenina Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer 57%
Production Design Life of Pi David Gropman, Anna Pinnock 57%
Cinematography Anna Karenina Seamus McGarvey 57%
Sound Mixing Argo John T. Reitz, Gregg Rudloff, José Antonio García 57%
Documentary Feature Searching for Sugar Man Malik Bendjelloul, Simon Chinn 57%
Documentary Short Redemption Jon Alpert, Matthew O’Neill 57%
Animated Short Fresh Guacamole PES 54%
Animated Short Head Over Heels Timothy Reckart, Fodhla Cronin O’Reilly 54%
Animated Feature ParaNorman Sam Fell, Chris Butler 54%
Original Screenplay Django Unchained Quentin Tarantino 51%
Sound Mixing Skyfall Scott Millan, Greg P. Russell, Stuart Wilson 51%
Score Lincoln John Williams 51%
Editing Life of Pi Tim Squyres 51%
Best Picture Zero Dark Thirty Mark Boal, Kathryn Bigelow, Megan Ellison 51%
Supporting Actor Django Unchained Christoph Waltz 49%
Supporting Actress The Sessions Helen Hunt 49%
Production Design The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey Dan Hennah, Ra Vincent, Simon Bright 49%
Song Life of Pi Pi’s Lullaby by Mychael Danna, Bombay Jayshree 49%
Documentary Short Kings Point Sari Gilman, Jedd Wider 49%
Live Action Short Curfew Shawn Christensen 49%
Best Picture Amour Margaret Ménégoz, Stefan Arndt, Veit Heiduschka, Michael Katz 46%
Supporting Actress Silver Linings Playbook Jacki Weaver 46%
Director Amour Michael Haneke 46%
Director Beasts of the Southern Wild Benh Zeitlin 46%
Foreign Language  Film No Chile 46%
Foreign Language  Film Kon-Tiki Norway 46%
Sound Editing Life of Pi Eugene Gearty, Philip Stockton 46%
Best Actor The Master Joaquin Phoenix 43%
Makeup & Hair Styling Hitchcock Howard Berger, Peter Montagna, Martin Samual 43%
Best Actor Flight Denzel Washington 40%
Supporting Actor The Master Philip Seymour Hoffman 40%
Score Anna Karenina Dario Marianelli 40%
Editing Silver Linings Playbook Jay Cassidy, Crispin Struthers 40%
Best Picture Les Misérables Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, Debra Hayward, Cameron Mackintosh 40%
Best Actress Beasts of the Southern Wild Quvenzhané Wallis 37%
Best Actress The Impossible Naomi Watts 37%
Original Screenplay Flight John Gatins 37%
Documentary Feature 5 Broken Cameras Emad Burnat, Guy Davidi 37%
Animated Short The Simpsons: The Longest Daycare David Silverman 37%
Live Action Short Henry Yan England 37%
Visual Effects Snow White and the Huntsman Cedric Nicolas-Troyan, Phil Brennan, Neil Corbould, Michael Dawson 37%
Supporting Actress The Master Amy Adams 34%
Cinematography Django Unchained Robert Richardson 34%
Sound Editing Django Unchained Wylie Stateman 34%
Visual Effects Prometheus Richard Stammers, Trevor Wood, Charley Henley, Martin Hill 34%
Adapted Screenplay Beasts of the Southern Wild Lucy Alibar, Behn Zeitlin 31%
Song Chasing Ice Before My Time by J. Ralph 31%
Costume Mirror Mirror Eiko Ishioka 31%
Best Picture Beasts of the Southern Wild Dan Janvey, Josh Penn, Michael Gottwald 30%
Costume Snow White and the Huntsman Colleen Atwood 29%
Animated Feature The Pirates! Band of Misfits Peter Lord 29%
Best Picture Django Unchained Stacey Sher, Reginald Hudlin, Pilar Savone 17%

We’ll have to more to say after the winners announced.🙂 The deadline hasn’t actually been reached for submissions yet, and if we get any more, we’ll update this before the first winner is announced.

* This prediction was revised to correct an error in the submissions after the announcements.

Tentative results: we were 85% on the Big Six, 72% on the Incredibly Difficult Maven Section, and 75% overall.

This post by Bufo Calvin originally appeared in the The Measured Circle blog.

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