Bufo’s Oscar Prediction Madness 2013

Bufo’s Oscar Prediction Madness 2013

For more than twenty years, I’ve been doing an Oscar prediction contest.  If you are interested in playing, comment this post and I’ll send you the spreadsheet and the instructions.  I’ll keep your post private: I will get your e-mail address, but I won’t publish it on the blog.

If you actually played last year, I’ll send you an e-mail as well.

The more people we get, the more accurate we tend to be.  I’ll put out the group’s predictions before the Oscars are announced on February 24th.

Important note: there is no fee to play the real game, and we only play for that most valuable of human possessions…bragging rights. 

As I did last year, I’m going to publicly put out my own predictions before I get any from anybody playing the game. I’m not overly confident in some categories…we’ll see.

Here is a bit more about how it is done, so that my guesses will make more sense to you:

The basic idea is this: try to predict who will win the Oscars!  I’ve given you a list of all the nominees and all the categories.  The way to get the most points is to rank every nominee, with the one you think is LEAST  likely to be picked by the Academy getting a one.  You get the number of points that you assigned to the winner.  If it’s a five-nominee category (like Best Actor), and you assigned five points to the winner, you get those five points!  If you were “oh so close” and assigned it four points, you get that.  If you were totally off, you might have only given it a one.
Note that this year there are nine Best Picture nominees.  The one you think the Academy is most likely to pick gets a 9…and on down from there.
By contrast, there are only three Makeup & Hair Styling nominees, so the most you can get there is three points.
We play for that most prized of all human possessions: braggin’ rights.  :)   We recognize winners in the Big Six category (which is Best Picture, Director, and the acting categories), the Maven category, and Overall.
category Movie Nominee ranking
Best Picture Amour Margaret Ménégoz, Stefan Arndt, Veit Heiduschka, Michael Katz 2
Best Picture Argo Grant Heslov, Ben Affleck, George Clooney 8
Best Picture Beasts of the Southern Wild Dan Janvey, Josh Penn, Michael Gottwald 4
Best Picture Django Unchained Stacey Sher, Reginald Hudlin, Pilar Savone 1
Best Picture Les Misérables Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, Debra Hayward, Cameron Mackintosh 5
Best Picture Life of Pi Gil Netter, Ang Lee, David Womark 3
Best Picture Lincoln Steven Spielberg, Kathleen Kennedy 9
Best Picture Silver Linings Playbook Donna Gigliotti, Bruce Cohen, Jonathan Gordon 7
Best Picture Zero Dark Thirty Mark Boal, Kathryn Bigelow, Megan Ellison 6
Best Actor Silver Linings Playbook Bradley Cooper 3
Best Actor Lincoln Daniel Day-Lewis 5
Best Actor Les Misérables Hugh Jackman 4
Best Actor The Master Joaquin Phoenix 1
Best Actor Flight Denzel Washington 2
Best Actress Zero Dark Thirty Jessica Chastain 4
Best Actress Silver Linings Playbook Jennifer Lawrence 5
Best Actress Amour Emmanuelle Riva 2
Best Actress Beasts of the Southern Wild Quvenzhané Wallis 3
Best Actress The Impossible Naomi Watts 1
Supporting Actor Argo Alan Arkin 4
Supporting Actor Silver Linings Playbook Robert De Niro 1
Supporting Actor The Master Philip Seymour Hoffman 2
Supporting Actor Lincoln Tommy Lee Jones 5
Supporting Actor Django Unchained Christoph Waltz 3
Supporting Actress The Master Amy Adams 1
Supporting Actress Lincoln Sally Field 4
Supporting Actress Les Misérables Anne Hathaway 5
Supporting Actress The Sessions Helen Hunt 2
Supporting Actress Silver Linings Playbook Jacki Weaver 3
Director Amour Michael Haneke 1
Director Life of Pi Ang Lee 3
Director Silver Linings Playbook David O. Russell 4
Director Lincoln Steven Spielberg 5
Director Beasts of the Southern Wild Benh Zeitlin 2
Foreign Language  Film Amour Austria 5
Foreign Language  Film War Witch Canada 3
Foreign Language  Film No Chile 4
Foreign Language  Film A Royal Affair Denmark 1
Foreign Language  Film Kon-Tiki Norway 2
Adapted Screenplay Argo Chris Terrio 2
Adapted Screenplay Beasts of the Southern Wild Lucy Alibar, Behn Zeitlin 1
Adapted Screenplay Life of Pi David Magee 3
Adapted Screenplay Lincoln Tony Kushner 5
Adapted Screenplay Silver Linings Playbook David O. Russell 4
Original Screenplay Amour Michael Haneke 2
Original Screenplay Django Unchained Quentin Tarantino 1
Original Screenplay Flight John Gatins 3
Original Screenplay Moonrise Kingdom Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola 5
Original Screenplay Zero Dark Thirty Mark Boal 4
Production Design Anna Karenina Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer 3
Production Design The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey Dan Hennah, Ra Vincent, Simon Bright 1
Production Design Les Misérables Eve Stewart, Anna-Lynch Robinson 4
Production Design Life of Pi David Gropman, Anna Pinnock 2
Production Design Lincoln Rick Carter, Jim Erickson 5
Cinematography Anna Karenina Seamus McGarvey 2
Cinematography Django Unchained Robert Richardson 1
Cinematography Life of Pi Claudio Miranda 3
Cinematography Lincoln Janusz Kaminski 5
Cinematography Skyfall Roger Deakins 4
Sound Mixing Argo John T. Reitz, Gregg Rudloff, José Antonio García 3
Sound Mixing Les Misérables Andy Nelson, Mark Paterson, Simon Hayes 4
Sound Mixing Life of Pi Ron Bartlett, Doug Hemphill, Drew Kunin 2
Sound Mixing Lincoln Andy Nelson, Gary Rydstrom, Ron Judkins 5
Sound Mixing Skyfall Scott Millan, Greg P. Russell, Stuart Wilson 1
Sound Editing Argo Erik Aadahl, Ethan Van der Ryn 4
Sound Editing Django Unchained Wylie Stateman 1
Sound Editing Life of Pi Eugene Gearty, Philip Stockton 2
Sound Editing Skyfall Per Hallberg, Karen M. Baker 3
Sound Editing Zero Dark Thirty Paul N.J. Ottosson 5
Score Anna Karenina Dario Marianelli 1
Score Argo Alexandre Desplat 3
Score Life of Pi Mychael Danna 4
Score Lincoln John Williams 5
Score Skyfall Thomas Newman 2
Song Chasing Ice Before My Time by J. Ralph 1
Song Les Misérables Suddenly by Alain Boublil, Claude-Michel Schönberg, Herbert Kretzmer 4
Song Life of Pi Pi’s Lullaby by Mychael Danna, Bombay Jayshree 2
Song Skyfall Skyfall by Adele, Paul Epworth 5
Song Ted Everybody Needs a Best Friend by Walter Murphy, Seth MacFarlane 3
Costume Anna Karenina Jacqueline Durran 3
Costume Les Misérables Paco Delgado 4
Costume Lincoln Joanna Johnston 5
Costume Mirror Mirror Eiko Ishioka 1
Costume Snow White and the Huntsman Colleen Atwood 2
Documentary Feature 5 Broken Cameras Emad Burnat, Guy Davidi 1
Documentary Feature The Gatekeepers Dror Moreh, Philippa Korwarsky, Estelle Fialon 4
Documentary Feature How to Survive a Plague David France, Howard Gertler 5
Documentary Feature The Invisible War Kirby Dick, Amy Ziering 2
Documentary Feature Searching for Sugar Man Malik Bendjelloul, Simon Chinn 3
Documentary Short Inocente Sean Fine, Andrea Nix 1
Documentary Short Kings Point Sari Gilman, Jedd Wider 2
Documentary Short Mondays at Racine Cynthia Wade, Robin Honan 4
Documentary Short Open Heart Kief Davidson, Cori Shepherd Stern 3
Documentary Short Redemption Jon Alpert, Matthew O’Neill 5
Editing Argo William Goldenberg 3
Editing Life of Pi Tim Squyres 2
Editing Lincoln Michael Kahn 5
Editing Silver Linings Playbook Jay Cassidy, Crispin Struthers 1
Editing Zero Dark Thirty William Goldenberg, Dylan Tichenor 4
Makeup & Hair Styling Hitchcock Howard Berger, Peter Montagna, Martin Samual 2
Makeup & Hair Styling The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey Peter King, Rick Findlater, Tami Lane 1
Makeup & Hair Styling Les Misérables Lisa Westcott, Julie Dartnell 3
Animated Short Adam and Dog Minkyu Lee 4
Animated Short Fresh Guacamole PES 1
Animated Short Head Over Heels Timothy Reckart, Fodhla Cronin O’Reilly 2
Animated Short Paperman John Kahrs 5
Animated Short The Simpsons: The Longest Daycare David Silverman 3
Live Action Short Asad Bryan Buckley, Mino Jarjoura 5
Live Action Short Buzkashi Boys Sam French, Ariel Nasr 3
Live Action Short Curfew Shawn Christensen 2
Live Action Short Death of a Shadow Tom Van Avermaet, Ellen De Waele 4
Live Action Short Henry Yan England 1
Visual Effects The Avengers Janek Sirrs, Jeff White, Guy Williams, Daniel Sudick 4
Visual Effects The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey Joe Letteri, Eric Saindon, David Clayton, R. Christopher White 3
Visual Effects Life of Pi Bill Westenhofer, Guillaume Rocheron, Erik De Boer, Donald Elliott 5
Visual Effects Prometheus Richard Stammers, Trevor Wood, Charley Henley, Martin Hill 2
Visual Effects Snow White and the Huntsman Cedric Nicolas-Troyan, Phil Brennan, Neil Corbould, Michael Dawson 1
Animated Feature Brave Mark Andrews, Brenda Chapman 5
Animated Feature Frankenweenie Tim Burton 2
Animated Feature ParaNorman Sam Fell, Chris Butler 3
Animated Feature The Pirates! Band of Misfits Peter Lord 1
Animated Feature Wreck-It Ralph Rich Moore 4

There you go!  Now you’ll be able to see later how I did.

Remember, if you’d like to play the traditional Bufo’s Oscar Prediction Madness, and help our group accuracy, just comment this post and let me know, and I’ll send you the entry form.  Group entries are fine.

This post by Bufo Calvin originally appeared in the The Measured Circle blog.

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