2012 BOPMadness Oscar Group Predictions (live updates with winners)

2012 BOPMadness Oscar Predictions (live updates with winners)

This is being published before the start of the 2011 Oscar broadcast. We are updating it as each winner is announced.

It’s based on aggregate analysis of the ballots submitted in the 2012 BOPMadness (Bufo’s Oscar Prediction Madness) contest.

Thanks to everyone who played! I’ll give individual results to the winners in the next few days. We announce a winner in the Big Six (the acting categories, director, and picture), the incredibly difficult Maven section (everything else), and overall.

First, to keep it simple, here are our predictions:

  • Picture: The Artist Winner: The Artist
  • Actor: The Artist (Jean Dujardin)
  • Actress: The Help (Viola Davis) Winner: Iron Lady (Meryl Streep)
  • Supporting Actor: Beginners (Christopher Plummer) Winner: Christopher Plummer
  • Supporting Actress: The Help (Octavia Spencer) Winner: The Help
  • Director: Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist)
  • Foreign Language Film (Asghar Farhadi: Iran) Winner: Iran
  • Adapted Screenplay: The Descendants Winner: The Descendants
  • Original Screenplay: Midnight in Paris Winner: Midnight in Paris
  • Art Direction: Hugo Winner: Hugo
  • Cinematography: The Artist Winner: Hugo
  • Sound Mixing: Hugo Winner: Hugo
  • Sound Editing: War Horse Winner: Hugo
  • Score: The Artist Winner: The Artist
  • Song: The Muppets (Man or Muppet) The Winner: The Muppets
  • Costume: Hugo Winner: The Artist
  • Documentary Feature: Hell and Back Again Winner: Undefeated
  • Documentary Short: The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom Winner: Saving Face
  • Editing: The Artist Winner: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
  • Makeup: The Iron Lady Winner: The Iron Lady
  • Animated Short: The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore Winner: The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore
  • Live Action Short: The Shore Winner: The Shore
  • Visual Effects: Hugo Winner: Hugo
  • Animated Feature: Rango Winner: Rango

Now, here are our group pictures ranked in order of what we think is most probable (Supporting Actress for The Help for Octavia Spencer, Director for the Artist for Michel Hazanavicius) to the least (Costume for W.E.):

category Movie Nominee Probability
Supporting Actress The Help Octavia Spencer 97%
Director The Artist Michel Hazanavicius 97%
Art Direction Hugo Dante Ferretti, Francesca Lo Schiavo 91%
Best Actor The Artist Jean Dujardin 90%
Best Actress The Help Viola Davis 90%
Foreign Language  Film A Separation Asghar Farhadi: Iran 90%
Visual Effects Hugo Robert Legato, Joss Williams, Ben Grossmann, Alex Henning 90%
Best Picture The Artist Thomas Langmann 87%
Supporting Actor Beginners Christopher Plummer 86%
Live Action Short The Shore Terry George, Oorlagh George 86%
Best Actress The Iron Lady Meryl Streep 83%
Adapted Screenplay The Descendants Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon, Jim Rash 83%
Cinematography The Artist Guillaume Schiffman 83%
Score The Artist Ludovic Bource 83%
Costume Hugo Sandy Powell 83%
Editing The Artist Anne-Sophie Bion, Michel Hazanavicius 83%
Best Picture The Help Brunson Green, Chris Columbus, Michael Barnathan 83%
Best Picture The Descendants Jim Burke, Alexander Payne, Jim Taylor 81%
Best Actor The Descendants George Clooney 80%
Original Screenplay Midnight in Paris Woody Allen 80%
Sound Mixing Hugo Tom Fleischman, John Midgley 80%
Costume The Artist Mark Bridges 80%
Documentary Short The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom Lucy Walker, Kira Carstensen 80%
Song Rio (Real in Rio) Sergio Mendes, Carlinhos Brown, Siedah Garrett 79%
Sound Editing War Horse Richard Hymns, Gary Rydstrom 77%
Costume Jane Eyre Michael O’Connor 77%
Director Hugo Martin Scorsese 77%
Score Hugo Howard Shore 77%
Editing Hugo Thelma Schoonmaker 77%
Animated Short The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore William Joyce, Brandon Oldenburg 77%
Visual Effects Rise of the Planet of the Apes Joe Letteri, Dan Lemmon, R. Christopher White, Daniel Barrett 77%
Makeup The Iron Lady Mark Coulier, J. Roy Helland 76%
Song The Muppets (Man or Muppet) Bret McKenzie 75%
Original Screenplay The Artist Michel Hazanavicius 74%
Art Direction The Artist Laurence Bennett, Robert Gould 73%
Sound Mixing War Horse Gary Rydstrom, Andy Nelson, Tom Johnson, Stuart Wilson 73%
Documentary Short Incident in New Baghdad James Spione 73%
Animated Feature Rango Gore Verbinski 73%
Makeup Albert Nobbs Martial Corneville, Lynn Johnson, Matthew W. Mungle 72%
Score War Horse John Williams 71%
Foreign Language  Film Footnote Joseph Cedar: Israel 70%
Adapted Screenplay Moneyball Steven Zaillian, Aaron Sorkin, Stan Chervin 69%
Cinematography War Horse Janusz Kaminski 69%
Sound Mixing The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo David Parker, Michael Semanick, Ren Klyce, Bo Persson 69%
Animated Feature Puss in Boots Chris Miller 69%
Supporting Actor Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close Max Von Sydow 67%
Adapted Screenplay Hugo John Logan 67%
Sound Editing The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo Ren Klyce 67%
Documentary Feature Hell and Back Again Danfung Dennis, Mike Lerner 67%
Animated Short La Luna Enrico Casarosa 67%
Animated Short Wild Life Amanda Forbis, Wendy Tilby 67%
Foreign Language  Film In Darkness Agnieszka Holland: Poland 66%
Documentary Feature Undefeated Daniel Lindsay, T.J. Martin, Rich Middlemas 66%
Best Actor Moneyball Brad Pitt 63%
Best Actress My Week with Marilyn Michelle Williams 63%
Supporting Actress The Help Jessica Chastain 63%
Original Screenplay Bridesmaids Kristen Wiig, Annie Mumolo 63%
Cinematography Hugo Robert Richardson 63%
Documentary Feature If a Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front Marshall Curry, Sam Cullman 63%
Documentary Feature Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory Joe Berlinger, Bruce Sinofsky 63%
Documentary Short Saving Face Daniel Junge, Sharmeen Obaid-Chinoy 63%
Visual Effects Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2 Tim Burke, David Vickery, Greg Butler, John Richardson 63%
Best Picture Hugo Graham King, Martin Scorsese 61%
Supporting Actor My Week with Marilyn Kenneth Branagh 60%
Supporting Actress Bridesmaids Melissa McCarthy 60%
Animated Short A Morning Stroll Grant Orchard, Sue Goffe 60%
Live Action Short Raju Max Zähle, Stefan Giere 60%
Animated Feature Kung Fu Panda 2 Jennifer Yuh 60%
Director The Descendants Alexander Payne 57%
Art Direction Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2 Stuart Craig, Stephenie McMillan 57%
Sound Editing Hugo Philip Stockton, Eugene Gearty 57%
Live Action Short Time Freak Andrew Bowler, Gigi Cause 57%
Animated Feature Chico & Rita Fernando Trueba, Javier Mariscal 57%
Makeup Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2 Nick Dudman, Amanda Knight, Lisa Tomblin 56%
Supporting Actor Moneyball Jonah Hill 53%
Supporting Actress The Artist Bérénice Bejo 53%
Sound Mixing Transformers: Dark of the Moon Greg P. Russell, Gary Summers, Jeffrey J. Haboush, Peter J. Devlin 53%
Sound Editing Drive Lon Bender, Victor Ray Ennis 53%
Documentary Short God Is the Bigger Elvis Rebecca Cammisa, Julie Anderson 53%
Live Action Short Tuba Atlantic Hallvar Witzø 53%
Editing The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo Angus Wall, Kirk Baxter 51%
Director Midnight in Paris Woody Allen 50%
Cinematography The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo Jeff Cronenweth 50%
Sound Editing Transformers: Dark of the Moon Ethan Van der Ryn, Erik Aadahl 50%
Editing Moneyball Christopher Tellefsen 50%
Visual Effects Transformers: Dark of the Moon Scott Farrar, Scott Benza, Matthew E. Butler, John Frazier 49%
Adapted Screenplay Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy Bridget O’Connor, Peter Straughan 47%
Original Screenplay A Separation Asghar Farhadi 47%
Documentary Feature Pina Wim Wenders, Gian-Piero Ringel 47%
Editing The Descendants Kevin Tent 47%
Live Action Short Pentecost Peter MacDonald 47%
Animated Feature A Cat in Paris Alain Gagnol, Jean-Loup Felicioli 47%
Best Picture War Horse Steven Spielberg, Kathleen Kennedy 46%
Best Actress Albert Nobbs Glenn Close 46%
Best Actor Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy Gary Oldman 43%
Foreign Language  Film Monsieur Lazhar Philippe Falardeau: Canada 43%
Score Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy Alberto Iglesias 43%
Best Picture Midnight in Paris Letty Aronson, Stephen Tenenbaum 41%
Adapted Screenplay The Ides of March George Clooney, Grant Heslov, Beau  Willimon 40%
Original Screenplay Margin Call J.C. Chandor 40%
Art Direction Midnight in Paris Anne Seibel, Hélène Dubreuil 40%
Art Direction War Horse Rick Carter, Lee Sandales 40%
Cinematography The Tree of Life Emmanuel Lubezki 40%
Costume Anonymous Lisy Christi 40%
Best Picture The Tree of Life Nominees to be determined 39%
Supporting Actor Warrior Nick Nolte 37%
Director The Tree of Life Terrence Malick 37%
Foreign Language  Film Bullhead Michae R. Roskam: Belgium 37%
Animated Short Dimanche Patrick Doyon 37%
Best Picture Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close Scott Rudin 33%
Documentary Short The Barber of Birmingham: Foot Soldier of the Civil Rights Mvmt Robin Fryday, Gail Dolgin 33%
Best Picture Moneyball Michael De Luca, Rachael Horovitz, Brad Pitt 31%
Sound Mixing Moneyball Deb Adair, Ron Bochar, David Giammarco, Ed Novick 30%
Score The Adventures of Tintin John Williams 30%
Visual Effects Real Steel Erik Nash, John Rosengrant, Danny Gordon Taylor, Swen Gillberg 30%
Best Actor A Better Life Demián Bichir 27%
Best Actress The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo Roomey Mara 27%
Supporting Actress Albert Nobbs Janet McTeer 27%
Costume W.E. Arianne Phillips 23%

We’ll revisit this after the broadcast to see how we did.

To see my own predictions, see this earlier post

See you in the movies!

This post by Bufo Calvin originally appeared in the The Measured Circle blog.

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