BOPMadness Oscar Predictions for 2011

BOPMadness Oscar Predictions for 2011

Once again, thank you to everyone who participated!

The BOPMadness ballots are in, and I’m getting our predictions out there before the Oscars, as usual.

I apologize that I can’t put all of the nominees names into this announcement and have it fit very well.  Our congratulations to all of them!

First, here the predictions by category:

category section Movie Probability
Best Picture Big Six Black Swan 62%
Best Picture Big Six The Fighter 68%
Best Picture Big Six Inception 50%
Best Picture Big Six The Kids Are All Right 47%
Best Picture Big Six The King’s Speech 92%
Best Picture Big Six 127 Hours 50%
Best Picture Big Six The Social Network 73%
Best Picture Big Six Toy Story 3 30%
Best Picture Big Six True Grit 47%
Best Picture Big Six Winter’s Bone 32%
Best Actor Big Six Biutiful (Javier Bardem) 50%
Best Actor Big Six True Grit (Jeff Bridges) 40%
Best Actor Big Six The Social Network (Jesse Eisenberg) 67%
Best Actor Big Six The King’s Speech (Colin Firth) 87%
Best Actor Big Six 127 Hours (James Franco) 57%
Best Actress Big Six The Kids Are All Right (Annette Bening) 83%
Best Actress Big Six Rabbit Hole (Nicole Kidman) 30%
Best Actress Big Six Winter’s Bone (Jennifer Lawrence) 57%
Best Actress Big Six Black Swan (Natalie Portman) 90%
Best Actress Big Six Blue Valentine (Michelle Williams) 40%
Supporting Actor Big Six The Fighter (Christian Bale) 77%
Supporting Actor Big Six Winter’s Bone (John Hawkes) 43%
Supporting Actor Big Six The Kids Are All Right (Mark Ruffalo) 60%
Supporting Actor Big Six The Town (Jeremy Renner) 40%
Supporting Actor Big Six The King’s Speech (Geoffrey Rush) 80%
Supporting Actress Big Six The Fighter (Amy Adams) 53%
Supporting Actress Big Six The King’s Speech (Helena Bonham Carter) 50%
Supporting Actress Big Six The Fighter (Melissa Leo) 90%
Supporting Actress Big Six True Grit (Hailee Steinfeld) 67%
Supporting Actress Big Six Animal Kingdom (Jackie Weaver) 40%
Director Big Six Black Swan 67%
Director Big Six The Fighter 43%
Director Big Six The King’s Speech 70%
Director Big Six The Social Network 77%
Director Big Six True Grit 43%
Foreign Language  Film Maven Biutiful 73%
Foreign Language  Film Maven Dogtooth 53%
Foreign Language  Film Maven In a Better World 47%
Foreign Language  Film Maven Incendies 80%
Foreign Language  Film Maven Outside the Law (Hors-la-loi) 47%
Adapted Screenplay Maven 127 Hours 67%
Adapted Screenplay Maven The Social Network 93%
Adapted Screenplay Maven Toy Story 3 50%
Adapted Screenplay Maven True Grit 50%
Adapted Screenplay Maven Winter’s Bone 40%
Original Screenplay Maven Another Year 50%
Original Screenplay Maven The Fighter 53%
Original Screenplay Maven Inception 40%
Original Screenplay Maven The Kids Are All Right 60%
Original Screenplay Maven The King’s Speech 97%
Art Direction Maven Alice in Wonderland 67%
Art Direction Maven Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1 67%
Art Direction Maven Inception 50%
Art Direction Maven The King’s Speech 80%
Art Direction Maven True Grit 37%
Cinematography Maven Black Swan 70%
Cinematography Maven Inception 47%
Cinematography Maven The King’s Speech 60%
Cinematography Maven The Social Network 60%
Cinematography Maven True Grit 63%
Sound Mixing Maven Inception 77%
Sound Mixing Maven The King’s Speech 77%
Sound Mixing Maven Salt 40%
Sound Mixing Maven The Social Network 60%
Sound Mixing Maven True Grit 47%
Sound Editing Maven Inception 83%
Sound Editing Maven Toy Story 3 60%
Sound Editing Maven TRON: Legacy 43%
Sound Editing Maven True Grit 67%
Sound Editing Maven Unstoppable 47%
Score Maven How to Train Your Dragon 60%
Score Maven Inception 53%
Score Maven The King’s Speech 87%
Score Maven 127 Hours 40%
Score Maven The Social Network 60%
Song Maven Country Strong (Coming Home) 58%
Song Maven Tangled (I See the Light) 46%
Song Maven 127 Hours (If I Rise) 63%
Song Maven Toy Story 3 (We Belong Together) 83%
Costume Maven Alice in Wonderland 80%
Costume Maven I Am Love 37%
Costume Maven The King’s Speech 80%
Costume Maven The Tempest 50%
Costume Maven True Grit 53%
Documentary Feature Maven Exit Through the Gift Shop 63%
Documentary Feature Maven Gasland 57%
Documentary Feature Maven Inside Job 57%
Documentary Feature Maven Restrepo 73%
Documentary Feature Maven Waste Land 53%
Documentary Short Maven Killing in the Name 70%
Documentary Short Maven Poster Boy 57%
Documentary Short Maven Strangers No More 60%
Documentary Short Maven Sun Come Up 40%
Documentary Short Maven The Warriors of Quigang 73%
Editing Maven Black Swan 53%
Editing Maven The Fighter 53%
Editing Maven The King’s Speech 77%
Editing Maven 127 Hours 53%
Editing Maven The Social Network 63%
Makeup Maven Barney’s Version 56%
Makeup Maven The Way Back 72%
Makeup Maven The Wolfman 72%
Animated Short Maven Day & Night 67%
Animated Short Maven The Gruffalo 77%
Animated Short Maven Let’s Pollute 57%
Animated Short Maven The Lost Thing 57%
Animated Short Maven Madagascar, carnet de voyage (Madagascar, a Journey Diary) 43%
Live Action Short Maven The Confession 60%
Live Action Short Maven The Crush 50%
Live Action Short Maven God of Love 63%
Live Action Short Maven Na Wewe 63%
Live Action Short Maven Wish 143 63%
Visual Effects Maven Alice in Wonderland 77%
Visual Effects Maven Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1 77%
Visual Effects Maven Hereafter 33%
Visual Effects Maven Inception 73%
Visual Effects Maven Iron Man 2 40%
Animated Feature Maven How to Train Your Dragon 61%
Animated Feature Maven The Illusionist 56%
Animated Feature Maven Toy Story 3 83%

Second, I’ve sorted them by assigned probability…how likely we think each nominee is to win.

category section Movie Probability
Original Screenplay Maven The King’s Speech 97%
Adapted Screenplay Maven The Social Network 93%
Best Picture Big Six The King’s Speech 92%
Best Actress Big Six Black Swan (Natalie Portman) 90%
Supporting Actress Big Six The Fighter (Melissa Leo) 90%
Best Actor Big Six The King’s Speech (Colin Firth) 87%
Score Maven The King’s Speech 87%
Best Actress Big Six The Kids Are All Right (Annette Bening) 83%
Sound Editing Maven Inception 83%
Song Maven Toy Story 3 (We Belong Together) 83%
Animated Feature Maven Toy Story 3 83%
Supporting Actor Big Six The King’s Speech (Geoffrey Rush) 80%
Foreign Language  Film Maven Incendies 80%
Art Direction Maven The King’s Speech 80%
Costume Maven Alice in Wonderland 80%
Costume Maven The King’s Speech 80%
Supporting Actor Big Six The Fighter (Christian Bale) 77%
Director Big Six The Social Network 77%
Sound Mixing Maven Inception 77%
Sound Mixing Maven The King’s Speech 77%
Editing Maven The King’s Speech 77%
Animated Short Maven The Gruffalo 77%
Visual Effects Maven Alice in Wonderland 77%
Visual Effects Maven Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1 77%
Best Picture Big Six The Social Network 73%
Foreign Language  Film Maven Biutiful 73%
Documentary Feature Maven Restrepo 73%
Documentary Short Maven The Warriors of Quigang 73%
Visual Effects Maven Inception 73%
Makeup Maven The Way Back 72%
Makeup Maven The Wolfman 72%
Director Big Six The King’s Speech 70%
Cinematography Maven Black Swan 70%
Documentary Short Maven Killing in the Name 70%
Best Picture Big Six The Fighter 68%
Best Actor Big Six The Social Network (Jesse Eisenberg) 67%
Supporting Actress Big Six True Grit (Hailee Steinfeld) 67%
Director Big Six Black Swan 67%
Adapted Screenplay Maven 127 Hours 67%
Art Direction Maven Alice in Wonderland 67%
Art Direction Maven Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1 67%
Sound Editing Maven True Grit 67%
Animated Short Maven Day & Night 67%
Cinematography Maven True Grit 63%
Documentary Feature Maven Exit Through the Gift Shop 63%
Editing Maven The Social Network 63%
Live Action Short Maven God of Love 63%
Live Action Short Maven Na Wewe 63%
Live Action Short Maven Wish 143 63%
Song Maven 127 Hours (If I Rise) 63%
Best Picture Big Six Black Swan 62%
Animated Feature Maven How to Train Your Dragon 61%
Supporting Actor Big Six The Kids Are All Right (Mark Ruffalo) 60%
Original Screenplay Maven The Kids Are All Right 60%
Cinematography Maven The King’s Speech 60%
Cinematography Maven The Social Network 60%
Sound Mixing Maven The Social Network 60%
Sound Editing Maven Toy Story 3 60%
Score Maven How to Train Your Dragon 60%
Score Maven The Social Network 60%
Documentary Short Maven Strangers No More 60%
Live Action Short Maven The Confession 60%
Song Maven Country Strong (Coming Home) 58%
Best Actor Big Six 127 Hours (James Franco) 57%
Best Actress Big Six Winter’s Bone (Jennifer Lawrence) 57%
Documentary Feature Maven Gasland 57%
Documentary Feature Maven Inside Job 57%
Documentary Short Maven Poster Boy 57%
Animated Short Maven Let’s Pollute 57%
Animated Short Maven The Lost Thing 57%
Makeup Maven Barney’s Version 56%
Animated Feature Maven The Illusionist 56%
Supporting Actress Big Six The Fighter (Amy Adams) 53%
Foreign Language  Film Maven Dogtooth 53%
Original Screenplay Maven The Fighter 53%
Score Maven Inception 53%
Costume Maven True Grit 53%
Documentary Feature Maven Waste Land 53%
Editing Maven Black Swan 53%
Editing Maven The Fighter 53%
Editing Maven 127 Hours 53%
Best Picture Big Six Inception 50%
Best Picture Big Six 127 Hours 50%
Best Actor Big Six Biutiful (Javier Bardem) 50%
Supporting Actress Big Six The King’s Speech (Helena Bonham Carter) 50%
Adapted Screenplay Maven Toy Story 3 50%
Adapted Screenplay Maven True Grit 50%
Original Screenplay Maven Another Year 50%
Art Direction Maven Inception 50%
Costume Maven The Tempest 50%
Live Action Short Maven The Crush 50%
Best Picture Big Six The Kids Are All Right 47%
Best Picture Big Six True Grit 47%
Foreign Language  Film Maven In a Better World 47%
Foreign Language  Film Maven Outside the Law (Hors-la-loi) 47%
Cinematography Maven Inception 47%
Sound Mixing Maven True Grit 47%
Sound Editing Maven Unstoppable 47%
Song Maven Tangled (I See the Light) 46%
Supporting Actor Big Six Winter’s Bone (John Hawkes) 43%
Director Big Six The Fighter 43%
Director Big Six True Grit 43%
Sound Editing Maven TRON: Legacy 43%
Animated Short Maven Madagascar, carnet de voyage (Madagascar, a Journey Diary) 43%
Best Actor Big Six True Grit (Jeff Bridges) 40%
Best Actress Big Six Blue Valentine (Michelle Williams) 40%
Supporting Actor Big Six The Town (Jeremy Renner) 40%
Supporting Actress Big Six Animal Kingdom (Jackie Weaver) 40%
Adapted Screenplay Maven Winter’s Bone 40%
Original Screenplay Maven Inception 40%
Sound Mixing Maven Salt 40%
Score Maven 127 Hours 40%
Documentary Short Maven Sun Come Up 40%
Visual Effects Maven Iron Man 2 40%
Art Direction Maven True Grit 37%
Costume Maven I Am Love 37%
Visual Effects Maven Hereafter 33%
Best Picture Big Six Winter’s Bone 32%
Best Picture Big Six Toy Story 3 30%
Best Actress Big Six Rabbit Hole (Nicole Kidman) 30%

Interestingly, as a group, we are most sure about the screenwriting categories…that doesn’t usually happen.  We predict a big night for The King’s Speech (no surprise there, probably), but don’t have much love for True Grit.

Our least likely wins?  Tied at 30% are Nicole Kidman for Best Actress for Rabbit Hole, and Toy Story 3 for Best Picture (although we think the latter very likely to get Best Animated Feature (83%).

I’ll check back in with the results…

See you in the movies!

This post by Bufo Calvin originally appeared in the The Measured Circle blog

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