I predict the American Idol top ten eliminations…in order

I predict the American Idol top ten eliminations…in order

First, let me say…I’m not that confident this year.  My record has been picking 9 out of the top 10 eliminations in order, but I doubt I’ll hit that this time. 

Why?

Well, there’s some real mushiness in the middle.  There are a couple that I think will go early, a couple I expect to see at the end, but the middle is kind of…middling.

The way this works is I’m going to map out the rest of the eliminations.

I’m not basing this on who I think should go, but who I think will go.

One of the key factors to me is who will get the votes of an eliminated contestant.  I assume that a large chunk of the voting public votes every week (in the beginning).  I think those tend to be younger people (and may be more female).  As the show gets closer to the end, I think you get people voting who haven’t been voting…and they may be older. 

In the beginning, if one person gets eliminated, I think their votes tend to shift to another contestant…in some cases, their fans may stop voting altogether, but I think that would be the minority of fervent watchers.

Of course, if I’m wrong on somebody, the whole remaining lists gets thrown off, so I may adjust the prediction. 

I’m also going to let you vote this time…we’ll see if the group is better at this than I am. 🙂

Week 3: I think Casey, Katie, Tim, and Didi are especially at risk this coming week.  I’m going to predict that Tim, Casey, and (in what will be a surprise to some) Didi) are in the bottom three.  My guess is that we’ll say good-bye to Tim Urban.  My suggestion for him after the show?  It sounds like his family would make a good reality show.  Ten homeschooled siblings, at least one cute singer in that group, and presumably, classic family values.  It might play well on Ion, for example.  Aaron picks up some of Tim’s fans.

Week 4:  people are again surprised when Lee is in the bottom three.  Casey and Katie join him.  Casey is eliminated. 

Week 5: Casey’s fans go largely to Lee.  Aaron, Andrew, and Didi are in the bottom 3.  Didi goes home: her fans partly blame Siobhan, and partly blame Katie.

Week 6: Katie, Andrew, and shockingly, Big Mike are in the bottom three.  Katie gets eliminated.  Katie shows up on the Disney Channel and in parades, and eventually does a Broadway show.

Week 7: Andrew, Aaron, and Siobhan are in the bottom three.  Andrew’s story finally fails him, and he is sent home. 

Week 8: Aaron, Crystal, Lee, Siobhan, and Big Mike are left.  It’s Aaron, Lee, and Siobhan in the bottom three, and fans are surprised when Siobhan is sent home.  She seems to be essentially okay with it, though.  Aaron and Lee are warned to step up their games by Simon.

Week 9: Crystal is the only one not in the bottom three.  Aaron goes home.

Week 10: Lee, Crystal, and Big Mike give us a good mix for the duets.  They are all commercial, all have different sounding voices (and audiences).  Lee has finally been really connecting with the audience, after a particularly emotional performance that has a deep personal meaning for him (related to something with his family, most likely).  Crystal has been remaining true to herself, but has broadened her range a bit.  Big Mike continues to switch up the genres.

The rest (I’m not sure how they’ll do the last few competitions): I’m torn between people being blown away with Crystal going home at number three, or Lee going home.  Lee and Big Mike would make a very interesting finale, and Lee has more mainstream appeal than Crystal, I think.  I”m going to reluctantly say Crystal goes home.  Then, it is Big Mike and Lee.  Lee is clearly seen as the underdog in this match-up.  Lee has a great performance in the last competition, but it is Big Mike who wins.

Like I said, I’m not that confident.  Lee could win it all, even though I don’t personally like him as much as some of the others.  I think his voice is good, but I don’t see the audience connection.   I probably like Crystal the best, in terms of the singer to whom I would listen, but I don’t think she’s as mainstream (which hurts at the end).  She’ll have a career as a singer, though.  I do like quirky, but I’m not a Siobhan fan.  I think she sees herself as an outsider, and that can alienate people.  I’m also not a fan of the shouting, which is not like Adam Lambert, despite what some people may say.

Okay, here comes the poll (remember, you are predicting who goes home, not saying who you like the best or worst):

Step right in, folks…here we go. 🙂

This post originally appeared in The Measured Circle blog.

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