BOPMadness Oscar Predictions for 2010

BOPMadness Oscar Predictions for 2010

In an earlier post, I talked about an Oscar prediction contest I’ve been doing for more than twenty years, and invited people to play.

The way we do it is that players rank every nominee in every category, giving the one they think the Academy is least likely to pick a “1”.  You then get the points you assigned to the actual winner.  So, if you thought Sandra Bullock was the second most likely to get the Best Actress Oscar, you would have assigned four points to her (there are five nominees in the category).  If she won, you’d get those four points.

This year, you could get up to ten points for Best Picture, since there are ten nominees (which presumably makes it harder).

I aggregate the data (combining everybody’s guesses) to come up with the probabilites. We tend to be pretty accurate as a group.  This year, I’m putting those predictions out in this blog, as well as among the group.  We’ll revisit this later to see how accurate we were this year.

Surest bets:

Christopher Waltz for Supporting Actor for Inglourious Basterds

Sound Editing to The Hurt Locker (see names below)

Visual Effects to Avatar (see names below)

Longest shots:

Michael Giacchino for the score to Up

Michael Silvers and Tom Myers for sound editing for Up

category Movie Nominee Probability
Best Picture Avatar James Cameron, John Landau 88%
Best Picture The Blind Side Gill Netter, Andrew A. Kosove, Broderick Johnson  48%
Best Picture District 9 Peter Jackson, Carolynne Cunningham 35%
Best Picture An Education Finola Dwyer, Amanda Posey 33%
Best Picture The Hurt Locker Kathryn Bigelow, Mark Boal, Nicolas Chartier, Greg Shapiro 93%
Best Picture Inglourious Basterds Lawrence Bender 73%
Best Picture Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire Lee Daniels, Sarah Siegel-Magness, Gary Magness 55%
Best Picture A Serious Man Ethan Coen, Joel Coen 40%
Best Picture Up Jonas Rivera 28%
Best Picture Up in the Air Daniel Dubiecki, Ivan Reitman, Jason Reitman 60%
Best Actor Crazy Heart Jeff Bridges 90%
Best Actor Up in the Air George Clooney 80%
Best Actor A Single Man Colin Firth 30%
Best Actor Invictus Morgan Freeman 60%
Best Actor The Hurt Locker Jeremy Renner 40%
Best Actress The Blind Side Sandra Bullock 95%
Best Actress The Last Station Helen Mirren 65%
Best Actress An Education Carey Mulligan 35%
Best Actress Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire Gabourey Sidibe 50%
Best Actress Julie & Julia Meryl Streep 55%
Supporting Actor Invictus Matt Damon 50%
Supporting Actor The Messenger Woody Harrelson 50%
Supporting Actor The Last Station Christopher Plummer 50%
Supporting Actor The Lovely Bones Stanley Tucci 50%
Supporting Actor Inglourious Basterds Christopher Waltz 100%
Supporting Actress Nine Penélope Cruz 55%
Supporting Actress Up in the Air Vera Farmiga 85%
Supporting Actress Crazy Heart Maggie Gyllenhaal 60%
Supporting Actress Up in the Air Anna Kendrick 40%
Supporting Actress Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire Mo’Nique 60%
Director The Hurt Locker Kathryn Bigelow 90%
Director Avatar James Cameron 70%
Director Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire Lee Daniels 70%
Director Up in the Air Jason Reitman 35%
Director Inglourious Basterds Quentin Tarantino 35%
Foreign Film Ajami Israel 60%
Foreign Film The White Ribbon Germany 65%
Foreign Film The Secret in Their Eyes Argentina 65%
Foreign Film A Prophet France 60%
Foreign Film The Milk of Sorrow Peru 50%
Adapted Screenplay District 9 Neill Blomkamp, Terri Tatchell 65%
Adapted Screenplay An Education Nick Hornby 60%
Adapted Screenplay In the Loop Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci, Tony Roche 40%
Adapted Screenplay Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire Geoffrey Fletcher 65%
Adapted Screenplay Up in the Air Jason Reitman, Sheldon Turner 70%
Original Screenplay The Hurt Locker Mark Boal 75%
Original Screenplay Inglourious Basterds Quentin Tarantino 85%
Original Screenplay The Messenger Alessandro Camon, Oren Moverman 50%
Original Screenplay A Serious Man Ethan Coen, Joel Coen 65%
Original Screenplay Up Bob Peterson, Pete Docter, Thomas McCarthy 25%
Art Direction Avatar Rick Carter, Robert Stromberg, Kim Sinclair 90%
Art Direction The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus David Warren, Anastasia Masaro, Caroline Smith 45%
Art Direction Nine John Myhre, Gordon Sim 60%
Art Direction Sherlock Holmes Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer 50%
Art Direction The Young Victoria Patrice Vermette, Mattie Gray 55%
Cinematography Avatar Mauro Fiore 55%
Cinematography The White Ribbon Christian Berger 55%
Cinematography Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince Bruno Delbonnel 35%
Cinematography The Hurt Locker Barry Ackroyd 90%
Cinematography Inglourious Basterds Robert Richardson 55%
Sound Mixing Avatar Christopher Boyes, Gary Summers, Andy Nelson, Tony Johnson 70%
Sound Mixing The Hurt Locker Paul N.J. Ottosson, Ray Beckett 80%
Sound Mixing Inglourious Basterds Michael Minkler, Tony Lamberti, Mark Ulano 45%
Sound Mixing Star Trek Anna Behlmer, Andy Nelson, Peter J. Devlin 55%
Sound Mixing Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen Greg P. Russell, Gary Summers, Geoffrey Patterson 50%
Sound Editing Avatar Christopher Boyes, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle 75%
Sound Editing The Hurt Locker Paul N.J. Ottosson 100%
Sound Editing Inglourious Basterds Wylie Stateman 65%
Sound Editing Star Trek Mark P. Stoeckinger, Alan Rankin 40%
Sound Editing Up Michael Silvers, Tom Myers 20%
Score Avatar James Horner 95%
Score The Fantastic Mr. Fox Alexandre Desplat 75%
Score The Hurt Locker Marco Beltrami, Buck Sanders 55%
Score Sherlock Holmes Hans Zimmer 55%
Score Up Michael Giacchino 20%
Song Crazy Heart The Weary Kind (T. Bone Burnett, Ryan Bingham 60%
Song Paris 36 Loin de Paname (Reinhardt Wagner, Frank Thomas) 35%
Song Nine Take It All (Maury Yeston) 50%
Song The Princess and the Frog Almost There (Randy Newman) 75%
Song The Princess and the Frog Down in New Orleans (Randy Newman) 80%
Costume Bright Star Janet Patterson 40%
Costume Coco Before Chanel Catherine Leterrier 80%
Costume The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus Monique Prudhomme 35%
Costume Nine Colleen Atwood 75%
Costume The Young Victoria Sandy Powell 70%
Documentary Feature Burma VJ Anders Østergaard, Lise Lense-Møller 35%
Documentary Feature The Cove Louie Psihoyos, Fisher Stevens 70%
Documentary Feature Food, Inc. Robert Kenner, Elise Pearlstein 75%
Documentary Feature The Most Dangerous Man in America: Daniel Ellsberg and the Pentagon Papers Judith Ehrlich, Rick Goldsmith 75%
Documentary Feature Which Way Home Rebecca Camissa 45%
Documentary Short China’s Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province Jon Alpert, Matthew O’Neill 40%
Documentary Short The Last Campaign of Governor Booth Gardner Daniel Junge, Henry Ansbacher 45%
Documentary Short The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant Steven Bognar, Julia Reichert 85%
Documentary Short Królik po berlinsku  Bartosz Konopka, Anna Wydra 65%
Documentary Short Music by Prudence Roger Ross Williams, Elinor Burkett 65%
Editing Avatar Stephen E. Rivkin, John Refoua, James Cameron 70%
Editing District 9 Julian Clarke 50%
Editing The Hurt Locker Bob Murawski, Chris Innis 95%
Editing Inglourious Basterds Sally Menke 50%
Editing Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire Joe Klotz 35%
Makeup Il Divo Aldo Signoretti, Vittorio Sodano 50%
Makeup Star Trek Barney Burman, Mindy Hall, Joel Harlow 67%
Makeup The Young Victoria John Henry Gordon, Jenny Shircore 83%
Animated Short French Roast Fabrice Joubert 50%
Animated Short Granny O’Grimm’s Sleeping Beauty Nicky Phelan, Darragh O’Connell 50%
Animated Short La dama y la Muerta Javier Recio Garcia 60%
Animated Short Logorama Nicolas Schmerkin 55%
Animated Short Wallace and Grommit in ‘A Matter of Loaf and Death; Nick Park 85%
Live Action Short The Door Juanita Wilson, James Flynn 65%
Live Action Short Istället för abrakadabra  Patrik Eklund, Mathias Fjällström 70%
Live Action Short Kavi Gregg Helvey 65%
Live Action Short Miracle Fish Luke Doolan, Drew Bailey 45%
Live Action Short The New Tenants Joachim Back, Tivi Magnusson 55%
Visual Effects Avatar Joe Letteri, Stephen Rosenbaum, Richard Baneham, Andy Jones 100%
Visual Effects District 9 Dan Kaufman, Peter Muyzers, Robert Habros, Matt Aitken 50%
Visual Effects Star Trek Roger Guyett, Russell Earl, Paul Kavanagh, Burt Dalton 50%
Animated Feature Coraline Henry Selick 70%
Animated Feature The Fantastic Mr. Fox Wes Anderson 80%
Animated Feature The Princess and the Frog John Musker, Ron Clements 60%
Animated Feature The Secret of the Kells Tomm Moore 30%
Animated Feature Up Pete Docter 60%

 This post by Bufo Calvin originally appeared in the The Measured Circle blog.  If you are reading this blog for free and would like to support it, just click here and then shop at Amazon.

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