2013 BOPMadness (Bufo’s Oscar Prediction Madness) results

2013 BOPMadness (Bufo’s Oscar Prediction Madness) results

How did we do predicting this year’s Oscars?

As a group, we got 85%* of the possible score on the Big Six categories (the acting awards, Best Picture, Best Director), and called four out of six of them.

While we didn’t call Ang Lee (we went for Lincoln), it wasn’t a shock…he was our second choice (as a group), with a 71% probability to Spielberg’s 80%.

Christoph Waltz did surprise us (and, I think, a lot of people)…we had Tommy Lee Jones as a strong favorite (86%), and both Alan Arkin and Robert De Niro ahead of Waltz at 63% versus 49% for Waltz (we didn’t think this was Philip Seymour Hoffman’s year).

Scott Calvin is the winner on the Big Six…with 100%! Congratulations to Scott, who got those all correct.

When we get to the rest of the categories (which we call The Incredibly Difficult Maven section), we had a group score 72%. We called twelve out of the 18 categories, missing on the documentary categories, live action short, Production Design, and the screenwriting categories.

That’s not a great year for us, and there may have been some factors.

For one thing, I think it was a great movie year, perhaps the best since 1939. More high quality choices make it harder to pick.

Second, the mismatch in the number of Best Picture nominees and other category nominees can confuse things. This isn’t the first year that’s happened, but I think when a movie is up for Best Picture, you tend to weight it higher in other categories as well. You can see that impact in the screenwriting categories. This year, every adapted screenplay nominee was also up for Best Picture (as were three of the original screenplay nominees).  Last year, only three of the Adapted Screenplay nominees were also Best Picture nominees…I think that muddies the water.

Congratulations to Mike Weston, who had an 89% on the Maven section, and was our winner there! Mike also got 91% on the Big Six, and was the overall winner, with 90%!

You can play next year! Watch this space…

* Numbers are tentative: we’ll double-check this later

This post by Bufo Calvin originally appeared in the The Measured Circle blog.

2013 BOPMadness Oscar Predictions (updated with Oscar winners)

2013 BOPMadness Oscar Predictions (updated with Oscar winners)

This is being published before the start of the 2012 Oscar broadcast. (It has been updated since then with Oscar results)

It’s based on aggregate analysis of the ballots submitted in the 2013 BOPMadness (Bufo’s Oscar Prediction Madness) contest.

Thanks to everyone who played! I’ll give individual results to the winners in the next few days. We announce a winner in the Big Six (the acting categories, director, and picture), the incredibly difficult Maven section (everything else), and overall.

Note: these have been updated since first published, but still before the announcements.

First, to keep it simple, here are our predictions:

THE BIG SIX

• Best Picture: Argo  | Winner: Argo
• Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis for Lincoln  | Winner: Daniel Day-Lewis
• Best Actress: Jennifer Lawrence for Silver Linings Playbook  | Winner: Jennifer Lawrence
• Best Supporting Actor: Tommy Lee Jones for Lincoln  | Winner: Christoph Waltz
• Best Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway for Les Misérables  | Winner: Anne Hathaway
• Best Director: Steven Spielberg for Lincoln  | Winner: Ang Lee

THE INCREDIBLY DIFFICULT MAVEN SECTION

• Foreign Language: Amour (Austria)  | Winner: Amour
• Adapted Screenplay:  Tony Kushner for Lincoln  | Winner: Argo
• Original Screenplay: Mark Boal for Zero Dark Thirty  | Winner: Django Unchained
• Production Design: Les Misérables  | Winner: Lincoln
• Cinematography: Life of Pi  | Winner: Life of Pi
• Editing: William Goldenberg for Argo Winner: Argo
• Sound Mixing: Les Misérables  | Winner: Les Misérables
• Sound Editing: Zero Dark Thirty*  | Winner: tie between Skyfall and Zero Dark Thirty (those were our first and second picks)
• Score: Life of Pi  | Winner: Life of Pi
• Song: Skyfall from Skyfall  | Winner; Skyfall
• Costume: Anna Karenina  | Winner: Anna Karenina
• Documentary Feature: How to Survive a Plague  | Winner: Searching for Sugar Man
• Documentary Short: Mondays at Racine  | Winner: Inocente
• Makeup & Hair Styling: Les Misérables  | Winner: Les Misérables
• Animated Short: Paperman  | Winner: Paperman
• Animated Feature: Brave  | Winner: Brave
• Live Action Short: Asad  | Winner: Curfew
• Visual Effects: Life of Pi  | Winner: Life of Pi

Now, here are our group predictions ranked in order of what we think is most probable (Amour for Foreign Language) to the least (Django Unchained for Best Picture):

Category	Movie	Nominee	Probability
Best Actor	Lincoln	Daniel Day-Lewis	97%
Best Actress	Silver Linings Playbook	Jennifer Lawrence	97%
Best Picture	Argo	Grant Heslov, Ben Affleck, George Clooney	97%
Foreign Language  Film	Amour	Austria	94%
Animated Feature	Brave	Mark Andrews, Brenda Chapman	91%
Best Picture	Lincoln	Steven Spielberg, Kathleen Kennedy	90%
Supporting Actress	Les Misérables	Anne Hathaway	89%
Costume	Anna Karenina	Jacqueline Durran	89%
Supporting Actor	Lincoln	Tommy Lee Jones	86%
Costume	Les Misérables	Paco Delgado	86%
Makeup & Hair Styling	Les Misérables	Lisa Westcott, Julie Dartnell	86%
Animated Short	Paperman	John Kahrs	86%
Supporting Actress	Lincoln	Sally Field	83%
Score	Life of Pi	Mychael Danna	83%
Song	Skyfall	Skyfall by Adele, Paul Epworth	83%
Visual Effects	Life of Pi	Bill Westenhofer, Guillaume Rocheron, Erik De Boer, Donald Elliott	83%
Sound Editing	Zero Dark Thirty	Paul N.J. Ottosson	83%
Director	Lincoln	Steven Spielberg	80%
Original Screenplay	Zero Dark Thirty	Mark Boal	80%
Editing	Argo	William Goldenberg	80%
Cinematography	Life of Pi	Claudio Miranda	77%
Sound Editing	Skyfall	Per Hallberg, Karen M. Baker	77%
Song	Les Misérables	Suddenly by Alain Boublil, Claude-Michel Schönberg, Herbert Kretzmer	77%
Live Action Short	Asad	Bryan Buckley, Mino Jarjoura	77%
Documentary Feature	How to Survive a Plague	David France, Howard Gertler	74%
Visual Effects	The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey	Joe Letteri, Eric Saindon, David Clayton, R. Christopher White	74%
Best Picture	Silver Linings Playbook	Donna Gigliotti, Bruce Cohen, Jonathan Gordon	71%
Best Actress	Zero Dark Thirty	Jessica Chastain	71%
Director	Life of Pi	Ang Lee	71%
Adapted Screenplay	Lincoln	Tony Kushner	71%
Production Design	Les Misérables	Eve Stewart, Anna-Lynch Robinson	71%
Documentary Feature	The Invisible War	Kirby Dick, Amy Ziering	71%
Documentary Short	Mondays at Racine	Cynthia Wade, Robin Honan	71%
Makeup & Hair Styling	The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey	Peter King, Rick Findlater, Tami Lane	71%
Visual Effects	The Avengers	Janek Sirrs, Jeff White, Guy Williams, Daniel Sudick	71%
Cinematography	Lincoln	Janusz Kaminski	69%
Animated Short	Adam and Dog	Minkyu Lee	69%
Live Action Short	Buzkashi Boys	Sam French, Ariel Nasr	69%
Live Action Short	Death of a Shadow	Tom Van Avermaet, Ellen De Waele	69%
Adapted Screenplay	Argo	Chris Terrio	66%
Adapted Screenplay	Life of Pi	David Magee	66%
Adapted Screenplay	Silver Linings Playbook	David O. Russell	66%
Original Screenplay	Amour	Michael Haneke	66%
Original Screenplay	Moonrise Kingdom	Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola	66%
Production Design	Lincoln	Rick Carter, Jim Erickson	66%
Sound Mixing	Les Misérables	Andy Nelson, Mark Paterson, Simon Hayes	66%
Score	Argo	Alexandre Desplat	66%
Costume	Lincoln	Joanna Johnston	66%
Editing	Zero Dark Thirty	William Goldenberg, Dylan Tichenor	66%
Animated Feature	Frankenweenie	Tim Burton	66%
Best Actor	Silver Linings Playbook	Bradley Cooper	63%
Supporting Actor	Argo	Alan Arkin	63%
Supporting Actor	Silver Linings Playbook	Robert De Niro	63%
Cinematography	Skyfall	Roger Deakins	63%
Sound Mixing	Life of Pi	Ron Bartlett, Doug Hemphill, Drew Kunin	63%
Sound Mixing	Lincoln	Andy Nelson, Gary Rydstrom, Ron Judkins	63%
Documentary Short	Inocente	Sean Fine, Andrea Nix	63%
Editing	Lincoln	Michael Kahn	63%
Sound Editing	Argo	Erik Aadahl, Ethan Van der Ryn	60%
Score	Skyfall	Thomas Newman	60%
Song	Ted	Everybody Needs a Best Friend by Walter Murphy, Seth MacFarlane	60%
Documentary Feature	The Gatekeepers	Dror Moreh, Philippa Korwarsky, Estelle Fialon	60%
Documentary Short	Open Heart	Kief Davidson, Cori Shepherd Stern	60%
Animated Feature	Wreck-It Ralph	Rich Moore	60%
Best Picture	Life of Pi	Gil Netter, Ang Lee, David Womark	57%
Best Actor	Les Misérables	Hugh Jackman	57%
Best Actress	Amour	Emmanuelle Riva	57%
Director	Silver Linings Playbook	David O. Russell	57%
Foreign Language  Film	War Witch	Canada	57%
Foreign Language  Film	A Royal Affair	Denmark	57%
Production Design	Anna Karenina	Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer	57%
Production Design	Life of Pi	David Gropman, Anna Pinnock	57%
Cinematography	Anna Karenina	Seamus McGarvey	57%
Sound Mixing	Argo	John T. Reitz, Gregg Rudloff, José Antonio García	57%
Documentary Feature	Searching for Sugar Man	Malik Bendjelloul, Simon Chinn	57%
Documentary Short	Redemption	Jon Alpert, Matthew O’Neill	57%
Animated Short	Fresh Guacamole	PES	54%
Animated Short	Head Over Heels	Timothy Reckart, Fodhla Cronin O’Reilly	54%
Animated Feature	ParaNorman	Sam Fell, Chris Butler	54%
Original Screenplay	Django Unchained	Quentin Tarantino	51%
Sound Mixing	Skyfall	Scott Millan, Greg P. Russell, Stuart Wilson	51%
Score	Lincoln	John Williams	51%
Editing	Life of Pi	Tim Squyres	51%
Best Picture	Zero Dark Thirty	Mark Boal, Kathryn Bigelow, Megan Ellison	51%
Supporting Actor	Django Unchained	Christoph Waltz	49%
Supporting Actress	The Sessions	Helen Hunt	49%
Production Design	The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey	Dan Hennah, Ra Vincent, Simon Bright	49%
Song	Life of Pi	Pi’s Lullaby by Mychael Danna, Bombay Jayshree	49%
Documentary Short	Kings Point	Sari Gilman, Jedd Wider	49%
Live Action Short	Curfew	Shawn Christensen	49%
Best Picture	Amour	Margaret Ménégoz, Stefan Arndt, Veit Heiduschka, Michael Katz	46%
Supporting Actress	Silver Linings Playbook	Jacki Weaver	46%
Director	Amour	Michael Haneke	46%
Director	Beasts of the Southern Wild	Benh Zeitlin	46%
Foreign Language  Film	No	Chile	46%
Foreign Language  Film	Kon-Tiki	Norway	46%
Sound Editing	Life of Pi	Eugene Gearty, Philip Stockton	46%
Best Actor	The Master	Joaquin Phoenix	43%
Makeup & Hair Styling	Hitchcock	Howard Berger, Peter Montagna, Martin Samual	43%
Best Actor	Flight	Denzel Washington	40%
Supporting Actor	The Master	Philip Seymour Hoffman	40%
Score	Anna Karenina	Dario Marianelli	40%
Editing	Silver Linings Playbook	Jay Cassidy, Crispin Struthers	40%
Best Picture	Les Misérables	Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, Debra Hayward, Cameron Mackintosh	40%
Best Actress	Beasts of the Southern Wild	Quvenzhané Wallis	37%
Best Actress	The Impossible	Naomi Watts	37%
Original Screenplay	Flight	John Gatins	37%
Documentary Feature	5 Broken Cameras	Emad Burnat, Guy Davidi	37%
Animated Short	The Simpsons: The Longest Daycare	David Silverman	37%
Live Action Short	Henry	Yan England	37%
Visual Effects	Snow White and the Huntsman	Cedric Nicolas-Troyan, Phil Brennan, Neil Corbould, Michael Dawson	37%
Supporting Actress	The Master	Amy Adams	34%
Cinematography	Django Unchained	Robert Richardson	34%
Sound Editing	Django Unchained	Wylie Stateman	34%
Visual Effects	Prometheus	Richard Stammers, Trevor Wood, Charley Henley, Martin Hill	34%
Adapted Screenplay	Beasts of the Southern Wild	Lucy Alibar, Behn Zeitlin	31%
Song	Chasing Ice	Before My Time by J. Ralph	31%
Costume	Mirror Mirror	Eiko Ishioka	31%
Best Picture	Beasts of the Southern Wild	Dan Janvey, Josh Penn, Michael Gottwald	30%
Costume	Snow White and the Huntsman	Colleen Atwood	29%
Animated Feature	The Pirates! Band of Misfits	Peter Lord	29%
Best Picture	Django Unchained	Stacey Sher, Reginald Hudlin, Pilar Savone	17%

We’ll have to more to say after the winners announced. The deadline hasn’t actually been reached for submissions yet, and if we get any more, we’ll update this before the first winner is announced.

* This prediction was revised to correct an error in the submissions after the announcements.

Tentative results: we were 85% on the Big Six, 72% on the Incredibly Difficult Maven Section, and 75% overall.

This post by Bufo Calvin originally appeared in the The Measured Circle blog.

Bufo’s Oscar Prediction Madness 2013

Bufo’s Oscar Prediction Madness 2013

For more than twenty years, I’ve been doing an Oscar prediction contest.  If you are interested in playing, comment this post and I’ll send you the spreadsheet and the instructions.  I’ll keep your post private: I will get your e-mail address, but I won’t publish it on the blog.

If you actually played last year, I’ll send you an e-mail as well.

The more people we get, the more accurate we tend to be.  I’ll put out the group’s predictions before the Oscars are announced on February 24th.

Important note: there is no fee to play the real game, and we only play for that most valuable of human possessions…bragging rights. 

As I did last year, I’m going to publicly put out my own predictions before I get any from anybody playing the game. I’m not overly confident in some categories…we’ll see.

Here is a bit more about how it is done, so that my guesses will make more sense to you:

The basic idea is this: try to predict who will win the Oscars!  I’ve given you a list of all the nominees and all the categories.  The way to get the most points is to rank every nominee, with the one you think is LEAST  likely to be picked by the Academy getting a one.  You get the number of points that you assigned to the winner.  If it’s a five-nominee category (like Best Actor), and you assigned five points to the winner, you get those five points!  If you were “oh so close” and assigned it four points, you get that.  If you were totally off, you might have only given it a one.

Note that this year there are nine Best Picture nominees.  The one you think the Academy is most likely to pick gets a 9…and on down from there.

By contrast, there are only three Makeup & Hair Styling nominees, so the most you can get there is three points.

We play for that most prized of all human possessions: braggin’ rights.     We recognize winners in the Big Six category (which is Best Picture, Director, and the acting categories), the Maven category, and Overall.

category	Movie	Nominee	ranking
Best Picture	Amour	Margaret Ménégoz, Stefan Arndt, Veit Heiduschka, Michael Katz	2
Best Picture	Argo	Grant Heslov, Ben Affleck, George Clooney	8
Best Picture	Beasts of the Southern Wild	Dan Janvey, Josh Penn, Michael Gottwald	4
Best Picture	Django Unchained	Stacey Sher, Reginald Hudlin, Pilar Savone	1
Best Picture	Les Misérables	Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, Debra Hayward, Cameron Mackintosh	5
Best Picture	Life of Pi	Gil Netter, Ang Lee, David Womark	3
Best Picture	Lincoln	Steven Spielberg, Kathleen Kennedy	9
Best Picture	Silver Linings Playbook	Donna Gigliotti, Bruce Cohen, Jonathan Gordon	7
Best Picture	Zero Dark Thirty	Mark Boal, Kathryn Bigelow, Megan Ellison	6
Best Actor	Silver Linings Playbook	Bradley Cooper	3
Best Actor	Lincoln	Daniel Day-Lewis	5
Best Actor	Les Misérables	Hugh Jackman	4
Best Actor	The Master	Joaquin Phoenix	1
Best Actor	Flight	Denzel Washington	2
Best Actress	Zero Dark Thirty	Jessica Chastain	4
Best Actress	Silver Linings Playbook	Jennifer Lawrence	5
Best Actress	Amour	Emmanuelle Riva	2
Best Actress	Beasts of the Southern Wild	Quvenzhané Wallis	3
Best Actress	The Impossible	Naomi Watts	1
Supporting Actor	Argo	Alan Arkin	4
Supporting Actor	Silver Linings Playbook	Robert De Niro	1
Supporting Actor	The Master	Philip Seymour Hoffman	2
Supporting Actor	Lincoln	Tommy Lee Jones	5
Supporting Actor	Django Unchained	Christoph Waltz	3
Supporting Actress	The Master	Amy Adams	1
Supporting Actress	Lincoln	Sally Field	4
Supporting Actress	Les Misérables	Anne Hathaway	5
Supporting Actress	The Sessions	Helen Hunt	2
Supporting Actress	Silver Linings Playbook	Jacki Weaver	3
Director	Amour	Michael Haneke	1
Director	Life of Pi	Ang Lee	3
Director	Silver Linings Playbook	David O. Russell	4
Director	Lincoln	Steven Spielberg	5
Director	Beasts of the Southern Wild	Benh Zeitlin	2
Foreign Language  Film	Amour	Austria	5
Foreign Language  Film	War Witch	Canada	3
Foreign Language  Film	No	Chile	4
Foreign Language  Film	A Royal Affair	Denmark	1
Foreign Language  Film	Kon-Tiki	Norway	2
Adapted Screenplay	Argo	Chris Terrio	2
Adapted Screenplay	Beasts of the Southern Wild	Lucy Alibar, Behn Zeitlin	1
Adapted Screenplay	Life of Pi	David Magee	3
Adapted Screenplay	Lincoln	Tony Kushner	5
Adapted Screenplay	Silver Linings Playbook	David O. Russell	4
Original Screenplay	Amour	Michael Haneke	2
Original Screenplay	Django Unchained	Quentin Tarantino	1
Original Screenplay	Flight	John Gatins	3
Original Screenplay	Moonrise Kingdom	Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola	5
Original Screenplay	Zero Dark Thirty	Mark Boal	4
Production Design	Anna Karenina	Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer	3
Production Design	The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey	Dan Hennah, Ra Vincent, Simon Bright	1
Production Design	Les Misérables	Eve Stewart, Anna-Lynch Robinson	4
Production Design	Life of Pi	David Gropman, Anna Pinnock	2
Production Design	Lincoln	Rick Carter, Jim Erickson	5
Cinematography	Anna Karenina	Seamus McGarvey	2
Cinematography	Django Unchained	Robert Richardson	1
Cinematography	Life of Pi	Claudio Miranda	3
Cinematography	Lincoln	Janusz Kaminski	5
Cinematography	Skyfall	Roger Deakins	4
Sound Mixing	Argo	John T. Reitz, Gregg Rudloff, José Antonio García	3
Sound Mixing	Les Misérables	Andy Nelson, Mark Paterson, Simon Hayes	4
Sound Mixing	Life of Pi	Ron Bartlett, Doug Hemphill, Drew Kunin	2
Sound Mixing	Lincoln	Andy Nelson, Gary Rydstrom, Ron Judkins	5
Sound Mixing	Skyfall	Scott Millan, Greg P. Russell, Stuart Wilson	1
Sound Editing	Argo	Erik Aadahl, Ethan Van der Ryn	4
Sound Editing	Django Unchained	Wylie Stateman	1
Sound Editing	Life of Pi	Eugene Gearty, Philip Stockton	2
Sound Editing	Skyfall	Per Hallberg, Karen M. Baker	3
Sound Editing	Zero Dark Thirty	Paul N.J. Ottosson	5
Score	Anna Karenina	Dario Marianelli	1
Score	Argo	Alexandre Desplat	3
Score	Life of Pi	Mychael Danna	4
Score	Lincoln	John Williams	5
Score	Skyfall	Thomas Newman	2
Song	Chasing Ice	Before My Time by J. Ralph	1
Song	Les Misérables	Suddenly by Alain Boublil, Claude-Michel Schönberg, Herbert Kretzmer	4
Song	Life of Pi	Pi’s Lullaby by Mychael Danna, Bombay Jayshree	2
Song	Skyfall	Skyfall by Adele, Paul Epworth	5
Song	Ted	Everybody Needs a Best Friend by Walter Murphy, Seth MacFarlane	3
Costume	Anna Karenina	Jacqueline Durran	3
Costume	Les Misérables	Paco Delgado	4
Costume	Lincoln	Joanna Johnston	5
Costume	Mirror Mirror	Eiko Ishioka	1
Costume	Snow White and the Huntsman	Colleen Atwood	2
Documentary Feature	5 Broken Cameras	Emad Burnat, Guy Davidi	1
Documentary Feature	The Gatekeepers	Dror Moreh, Philippa Korwarsky, Estelle Fialon	4
Documentary Feature	How to Survive a Plague	David France, Howard Gertler	5
Documentary Feature	The Invisible War	Kirby Dick, Amy Ziering	2
Documentary Feature	Searching for Sugar Man	Malik Bendjelloul, Simon Chinn	3
Documentary Short	Inocente	Sean Fine, Andrea Nix	1
Documentary Short	Kings Point	Sari Gilman, Jedd Wider	2
Documentary Short	Mondays at Racine	Cynthia Wade, Robin Honan	4
Documentary Short	Open Heart	Kief Davidson, Cori Shepherd Stern	3
Documentary Short	Redemption	Jon Alpert, Matthew O’Neill	5
Editing	Argo	William Goldenberg	3
Editing	Life of Pi	Tim Squyres	2
Editing	Lincoln	Michael Kahn	5
Editing	Silver Linings Playbook	Jay Cassidy, Crispin Struthers	1
Editing	Zero Dark Thirty	William Goldenberg, Dylan Tichenor	4
Makeup & Hair Styling	Hitchcock	Howard Berger, Peter Montagna, Martin Samual	2
Makeup & Hair Styling	The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey	Peter King, Rick Findlater, Tami Lane	1
Makeup & Hair Styling	Les Misérables	Lisa Westcott, Julie Dartnell	3
Animated Short	Adam and Dog	Minkyu Lee	4
Animated Short	Fresh Guacamole	PES	1
Animated Short	Head Over Heels	Timothy Reckart, Fodhla Cronin O’Reilly	2
Animated Short	Paperman	John Kahrs	5
Animated Short	The Simpsons: The Longest Daycare	David Silverman	3
Live Action Short	Asad	Bryan Buckley, Mino Jarjoura	5
Live Action Short	Buzkashi Boys	Sam French, Ariel Nasr	3
Live Action Short	Curfew	Shawn Christensen	2
Live Action Short	Death of a Shadow	Tom Van Avermaet, Ellen De Waele	4
Live Action Short	Henry	Yan England	1
Visual Effects	The Avengers	Janek Sirrs, Jeff White, Guy Williams, Daniel Sudick	4
Visual Effects	The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey	Joe Letteri, Eric Saindon, David Clayton, R. Christopher White	3
Visual Effects	Life of Pi	Bill Westenhofer, Guillaume Rocheron, Erik De Boer, Donald Elliott	5
Visual Effects	Prometheus	Richard Stammers, Trevor Wood, Charley Henley, Martin Hill	2
Visual Effects	Snow White and the Huntsman	Cedric Nicolas-Troyan, Phil Brennan, Neil Corbould, Michael Dawson	1
Animated Feature	Brave	Mark Andrews, Brenda Chapman	5
Animated Feature	Frankenweenie	Tim Burton	2
Animated Feature	ParaNorman	Sam Fell, Chris Butler	3
Animated Feature	The Pirates! Band of Misfits	Peter Lord	1
Animated Feature	Wreck-It Ralph	Rich Moore	4

There you go!  Now you’ll be able to see later how I did.

Remember, if you’d like to play the traditional Bufo’s Oscar Prediction Madness, and help our group accuracy, just comment this post and let me know, and I’ll send you the entry form.  Group entries are fine.

This post by Bufo Calvin originally appeared in the The Measured Circle blog.

2012 BOPMadness Oscar Group Predictions (live updates with winners)

2012 BOPMadness Oscar Predictions (live updates with winners)

This is being published before the start of the 2011 Oscar broadcast. We are updating it as each winner is announced.

It’s based on aggregate analysis of the ballots submitted in the 2012 BOPMadness (Bufo’s Oscar Prediction Madness) contest.

Thanks to everyone who played! I’ll give individual results to the winners in the next few days. We announce a winner in the Big Six (the acting categories, director, and picture), the incredibly difficult Maven section (everything else), and overall.

First, to keep it simple, here are our predictions:

• Picture: The Artist Winner: The Artist
• Actor: The Artist (Jean Dujardin)
• Actress: The Help (Viola Davis) Winner: Iron Lady (Meryl Streep)
• Supporting Actor: Beginners (Christopher Plummer) Winner: Christopher Plummer
• Supporting Actress: The Help (Octavia Spencer) Winner: The Help
• Director: Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist)
• Foreign Language Film (Asghar Farhadi: Iran) Winner: Iran
• Adapted Screenplay: The Descendants Winner: The Descendants
• Original Screenplay: Midnight in Paris Winner: Midnight in Paris
• Art Direction: Hugo Winner: Hugo
• Cinematography: The Artist Winner: Hugo
• Sound Mixing: Hugo Winner: Hugo
• Sound Editing: War Horse Winner: Hugo
• Score: The Artist Winner: The Artist
• Song: The Muppets (Man or Muppet) The Winner: The Muppets
• Costume: Hugo Winner: The Artist
• Documentary Feature: Hell and Back Again Winner: Undefeated
• Documentary Short: The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom Winner: Saving Face
• Editing: The Artist Winner: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
• Makeup: The Iron Lady Winner: The Iron Lady
• Animated Short: The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore Winner: The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore
• Live Action Short: The Shore Winner: The Shore
• Visual Effects: Hugo Winner: Hugo
• Animated Feature: Rango Winner: Rango

Now, here are our group pictures ranked in order of what we think is most probable (Supporting Actress for The Help for Octavia Spencer, Director for the Artist for Michel Hazanavicius) to the least (Costume for W.E.):

category	Movie	Nominee	Probability
Supporting Actress	The Help	Octavia Spencer	97%
Director	The Artist	Michel Hazanavicius	97%
Art Direction	Hugo	Dante Ferretti, Francesca Lo Schiavo	91%
Best Actor	The Artist	Jean Dujardin	90%
Best Actress	The Help	Viola Davis	90%
Foreign Language  Film	A Separation	Asghar Farhadi: Iran	90%
Visual Effects	Hugo	Robert Legato, Joss Williams, Ben Grossmann, Alex Henning	90%
Best Picture	The Artist	Thomas Langmann	87%
Supporting Actor	Beginners	Christopher Plummer	86%
Live Action Short	The Shore	Terry George, Oorlagh George	86%
Best Actress	The Iron Lady	Meryl Streep	83%
Adapted Screenplay	The Descendants	Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon, Jim Rash	83%
Cinematography	The Artist	Guillaume Schiffman	83%
Score	The Artist	Ludovic Bource	83%
Costume	Hugo	Sandy Powell	83%
Editing	The Artist	Anne-Sophie Bion, Michel Hazanavicius	83%
Best Picture	The Help	Brunson Green, Chris Columbus, Michael Barnathan	83%
Best Picture	The Descendants	Jim Burke, Alexander Payne, Jim Taylor	81%
Best Actor	The Descendants	George Clooney	80%
Original Screenplay	Midnight in Paris	Woody Allen	80%
Sound Mixing	Hugo	Tom Fleischman, John Midgley	80%
Costume	The Artist	Mark Bridges	80%
Documentary Short	The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom	Lucy Walker, Kira Carstensen	80%
Song	Rio (Real in Rio)	Sergio Mendes, Carlinhos Brown, Siedah Garrett	79%
Sound Editing	War Horse	Richard Hymns, Gary Rydstrom	77%
Costume	Jane Eyre	Michael O’Connor	77%
Director	Hugo	Martin Scorsese	77%
Score	Hugo	Howard Shore	77%
Editing	Hugo	Thelma Schoonmaker	77%
Animated Short	The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore	William Joyce, Brandon Oldenburg	77%
Visual Effects	Rise of the Planet of the Apes	Joe Letteri, Dan Lemmon, R. Christopher White, Daniel Barrett	77%
Makeup	The Iron Lady	Mark Coulier, J. Roy Helland	76%
Song	The Muppets (Man or Muppet)	Bret McKenzie	75%
Original Screenplay	The Artist	Michel Hazanavicius	74%
Art Direction	The Artist	Laurence Bennett, Robert Gould	73%
Sound Mixing	War Horse	Gary Rydstrom, Andy Nelson, Tom Johnson, Stuart Wilson	73%
Documentary Short	Incident in New Baghdad	James Spione	73%
Animated Feature	Rango	Gore Verbinski	73%
Makeup	Albert Nobbs	Martial Corneville, Lynn Johnson, Matthew W. Mungle	72%
Score	War Horse	John Williams	71%
Foreign Language  Film	Footnote	Joseph Cedar: Israel	70%
Adapted Screenplay	Moneyball	Steven Zaillian, Aaron Sorkin, Stan Chervin	69%
Cinematography	War Horse	Janusz Kaminski	69%
Sound Mixing	The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo	David Parker, Michael Semanick, Ren Klyce, Bo Persson	69%
Animated Feature	Puss in Boots	Chris Miller	69%
Supporting Actor	Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close	Max Von Sydow	67%
Adapted Screenplay	Hugo	John Logan	67%
Sound Editing	The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo	Ren Klyce	67%
Documentary Feature	Hell and Back Again	Danfung Dennis, Mike Lerner	67%
Animated Short	La Luna	Enrico Casarosa	67%
Animated Short	Wild Life	Amanda Forbis, Wendy Tilby	67%
Foreign Language  Film	In Darkness	Agnieszka Holland: Poland	66%
Documentary Feature	Undefeated	Daniel Lindsay, T.J. Martin, Rich Middlemas	66%
Best Actor	Moneyball	Brad Pitt	63%
Best Actress	My Week with Marilyn	Michelle Williams	63%
Supporting Actress	The Help	Jessica Chastain	63%
Original Screenplay	Bridesmaids	Kristen Wiig, Annie Mumolo	63%
Cinematography	Hugo	Robert Richardson	63%
Documentary Feature	If a Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front	Marshall Curry, Sam Cullman	63%
Documentary Feature	Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory	Joe Berlinger, Bruce Sinofsky	63%
Documentary Short	Saving Face	Daniel Junge, Sharmeen Obaid-Chinoy	63%
Visual Effects	Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2	Tim Burke, David Vickery, Greg Butler, John Richardson	63%
Best Picture	Hugo	Graham King, Martin Scorsese	61%
Supporting Actor	My Week with Marilyn	Kenneth Branagh	60%
Supporting Actress	Bridesmaids	Melissa McCarthy	60%
Animated Short	A Morning Stroll	Grant Orchard, Sue Goffe	60%
Live Action Short	Raju	Max Zähle, Stefan Giere	60%
Animated Feature	Kung Fu Panda 2	Jennifer Yuh	60%
Director	The Descendants	Alexander Payne	57%
Art Direction	Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2	Stuart Craig, Stephenie McMillan	57%
Sound Editing	Hugo	Philip Stockton, Eugene Gearty	57%
Live Action Short	Time Freak	Andrew Bowler, Gigi Cause	57%
Animated Feature	Chico & Rita	Fernando Trueba, Javier Mariscal	57%
Makeup	Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2	Nick Dudman, Amanda Knight, Lisa Tomblin	56%
Supporting Actor	Moneyball	Jonah Hill	53%
Supporting Actress	The Artist	Bérénice Bejo	53%
Sound Mixing	Transformers: Dark of the Moon	Greg P. Russell, Gary Summers, Jeffrey J. Haboush, Peter J. Devlin	53%
Sound Editing	Drive	Lon Bender, Victor Ray Ennis	53%
Documentary Short	God Is the Bigger Elvis	Rebecca Cammisa, Julie Anderson	53%
Live Action Short	Tuba Atlantic	Hallvar Witzø	53%
Editing	The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo	Angus Wall, Kirk Baxter	51%
Director	Midnight in Paris	Woody Allen	50%
Cinematography	The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo	Jeff Cronenweth	50%
Sound Editing	Transformers: Dark of the Moon	Ethan Van der Ryn, Erik Aadahl	50%
Editing	Moneyball	Christopher Tellefsen	50%
Visual Effects	Transformers: Dark of the Moon	Scott Farrar, Scott Benza, Matthew E. Butler, John Frazier	49%
Adapted Screenplay	Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy	Bridget O’Connor, Peter Straughan	47%
Original Screenplay	A Separation	Asghar Farhadi	47%
Documentary Feature	Pina	Wim Wenders, Gian-Piero Ringel	47%
Editing	The Descendants	Kevin Tent	47%
Live Action Short	Pentecost	Peter MacDonald	47%
Animated Feature	A Cat in Paris	Alain Gagnol, Jean-Loup Felicioli	47%
Best Picture	War Horse	Steven Spielberg, Kathleen Kennedy	46%
Best Actress	Albert Nobbs	Glenn Close	46%
Best Actor	Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy	Gary Oldman	43%
Foreign Language  Film	Monsieur Lazhar	Philippe Falardeau: Canada	43%
Score	Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy	Alberto Iglesias	43%
Best Picture	Midnight in Paris	Letty Aronson, Stephen Tenenbaum	41%
Adapted Screenplay	The Ides of March	George Clooney, Grant Heslov, Beau  Willimon	40%
Original Screenplay	Margin Call	J.C. Chandor	40%
Art Direction	Midnight in Paris	Anne Seibel, Hélène Dubreuil	40%
Art Direction	War Horse	Rick Carter, Lee Sandales	40%
Cinematography	The Tree of Life	Emmanuel Lubezki	40%
Costume	Anonymous	Lisy Christi	40%
Best Picture	The Tree of Life	Nominees to be determined	39%
Supporting Actor	Warrior	Nick Nolte	37%
Director	The Tree of Life	Terrence Malick	37%
Foreign Language  Film	Bullhead	Michae R. Roskam: Belgium	37%
Animated Short	Dimanche	Patrick Doyon	37%
Best Picture	Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close	Scott Rudin	33%
Documentary Short	The Barber of Birmingham: Foot Soldier of the Civil Rights Mvmt	Robin Fryday, Gail Dolgin	33%
Best Picture	Moneyball	Michael De Luca, Rachael Horovitz, Brad Pitt	31%
Sound Mixing	Moneyball	Deb Adair, Ron Bochar, David Giammarco, Ed Novick	30%
Score	The Adventures of Tintin	John Williams	30%
Visual Effects	Real Steel	Erik Nash, John Rosengrant, Danny Gordon Taylor, Swen Gillberg	30%
Best Actor	A Better Life	Demián Bichir	27%
Best Actress	The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo	Roomey Mara	27%
Supporting Actress	Albert Nobbs	Janet McTeer	27%
Costume	W.E.	Arianne Phillips	23%

We’ll revisit this after the broadcast to see how we did.

To see my own predictions, see this earlier post

See you in the movies!

This post by Bufo Calvin originally appeared in the The Measured Circle blog.

Bufo’s Oscar Prediction Madness 2012

Bufo’s Oscar Prediction Madness 2012

For more than twenty years, I’ve been doing an Oscar prediction contest.  If you are interested in playing, comment this post and I’ll send you the spreadsheet and the instructions.  I’ll keep your post private: I will get your e-mail address, but I won’t publish it on the blog.

The more people we get, the more accurate we tend to be.  I’ll put out the group’s predictions before the Oscars are announced on February 26th.

Important note: there is no fee to play the real game, and we only play for that most valuable of human possessions…bragging rights. 

As I did last year, I’m going to publicly put out my own predictions before I get any from anybody playing the game. I’m not overly confident in some categories…we’ll see.

category	Movie	Nominee	ranking
Best Picture	The Artist	Thomas Langmann	9
Best Picture	The Descendants	Jim Burke, Alexander Payne, Jim Taylor	7
Best Picture	Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close	Scott Rudin	5
Best Picture	The Help	Brunson Green, Chris Columbus, Michael Barnathan	8
Best Picture	Hugo	Graham King, Martin Scorsese	4
Best Picture	Midnight in Paris	Letty Aronson, Stephen Tenenbaum	3
Best Picture	Moneyball	Michael De Luca, Rachael Horovitz, Brad Pitt	6
Best Picture	The Tree of Life	Nominees to be determined	2
Best Picture	War Horse	Steven Spielberg, Kathleen Kennedy	1
Best Actor	The Artist	Jean Dujardin	5
Best Actor	A Better Life	Demián Bichir	1
Best Actor	The Descendants	George Clooney	3
Best Actor	Moneyball	Brad Pitt	4
Best Actor	Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy	Gary Oldman	2
Best Actress	Albert Nobbs	Glenn Close	2
Best Actress	The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo	Roomey Mara	1
Best Actress	The Help	Viola Davis	5
Best Actress	The Iron Lady	Meryl Streep	4
Best Actress	My Week with Marilyn	Michelle Williams	3
Supporting Actor	Beginners	Christopher Plummer	5
Supporting Actor	Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close	Max Von Sydow	4
Supporting Actor	Moneyball	Jonah Hill	3
Supporting Actor	My Week with Marilyn	Kenneth Branagh	2
Supporting Actor	Warrior	Nick Nolte	1
Supporting Actress	Albert Nobbs	Janet McTeer	3
Supporting Actress	The Artist	Bérénice Bejo	4
Supporting Actress	Bridesmaids	Melissa McCarthy	2
Supporting Actress	The Help	Jessica Chastain	1
Supporting Actress	The Help	Octavia Spencer	5
Director	The Artist	Michel Hazanavicius	5
Director	The Descendants	Alexander Payne	2
Director	Hugo	Martin Scorsese	4
Director	Midnight in Paris	Woody Allen	1
Director	The Tree of Life	Terrence Malick	3
Foreign Language  Film	Bullhead	Michae R. Roskam: Belgium	2
Foreign Language  Film	Footnote	Joseph Cedar: Israel	4
Foreign Language  Film	In Darkness	Agnieszka Holland: Poland	3
Foreign Language  Film	Monsieur Lazhar	Philippe Falardeau: Canada	1
Foreign Language  Film	A Separation	Asghar Farhadi: Iran	5
Adapted Screenplay	The Descendants	Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon, Jim Rash	4
Adapted Screenplay	Hugo	John Logan	3
Adapted Screenplay	The Ides of March	George Clooney, Grant Heslov, Beau  Willimon	1
Adapted Screenplay	Moneyball	Steven Zaillian, Aaron Sorkin, Stan Chervin	5
Adapted Screenplay	Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy	Bridget O’Connor, Peter Straughan	2
Original Screenplay	The Artist	Michel Hazanavicius	4
Original Screenplay	Bridesmaids	Kristen Wiig, Annie Mumolo	3
Original Screenplay	Margin Call	J.C. Chandor	1
Original Screenplay	Midnight in Paris	Woody Allen	5
Original Screenplay	A Separation	Asghar Farhadi	2
Art Direction	The Artist	Laurence Bennett, Robert Gould	5
Art Direction	Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2	Stuart Craig, Stephenie McMillan	2
Art Direction	Hugo	Dante Ferretti, Francesca Lo Schiavo	4
Art Direction	Midnight in Paris	Anne Seibel, Hélène Dubreuil	3
Art Direction	War Horse	Rick Carter, Lee Sandales	1
Cinematography	The Artist	Guillaume Schiffman	5
Cinematography	The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo	Jeff Cronenweth	4
Cinematography	Hugo	Robert Richardson	3
Cinematography	The Tree of Life	Emmanuel Lubezki	2
Cinematography	War Horse	Janusz Kaminski	1
Sound Mixing	The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo	David Parker, Michael Semanick, Ren Klyce, Bo Persson	5
Sound Mixing	Hugo	Tom Fleischman, John Midgley	3
Sound Mixing	Moneyball	Deb Adair, Ron Bochar, David Giammarco, Ed Novick	4
Sound Mixing	Transformers: Dark of the Moon	Greg P. Russell, Gary Summers, Jeffrey J. Haboush, Peter J. Devlin	2
Sound Mixing	War Horse	Gary Rydstrom, Andy Nelson, Tom Johnson, Stuart Wilson	1
Sound Editing	Drive	Lon Bender, Victor Ray Ennis	4
Sound Editing	The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo	Ren Klyce	5
Sound Editing	Hugo	Philip Stockton, Eugene Gearty	3
Sound Editing	Transformers: Dark of the Moon	Ethan Van der Ryn, Erik Aadahl	2
Sound Editing	War Horse	Richard Hymns, Gary Rydstrom	1
Score	The Adventures of Tintin	John Williams	1
Score	The Artist	Ludovic Bource	5
Score	Hugo	Howard Shore	4
Score	Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy	Alberto Iglesias	2
Score	War Horse	John Williams	3
Song	The Muppets (Man or Muppet)	Bret McKenzie	2
Song	Rio (Real in Rio)	Sergio Mendes, Carlinhos Brown, Siedah Garrett	1
Costume	Anonymous	Lisy Christi	2
Costume	The Artist	Mark Bridges	5
Costume	Hugo	Sandy Powell	4
Costume	Jane Eyre	Michael O’Connor	3
Costume	W.E.	Arianne Phillips	1
Documentary Feature	Hell and Back Again	Danfung Dennis, Mike Lerner	1
Documentary Feature	If a Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front	Marshall Curry, Sam Cullman	3
Documentary Feature	Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory	Joe Berlinger, Bruce Sinofsky	5
Documentary Feature	Pina	Wim Wenders, Gian-Piero Ringel	4
Documentary Feature	Undefeated	Daniel Lindsay, T.J. Martin, Rich Middlemas	2
Documentary Short	The Barber of Birmingham: Foot Soldier of the Civil Rights Mvmt	Robin Fryday, Gail Dolgin	1
Documentary Short	God Is the Bigger Elvis	Rebecca Cammisa, Julie Anderson	4
Documentary Short	Incident in New Baghdad	James Spione	5
Documentary Short	Saving Face	Daniel Junge, Sharmeen Obaid-Chinoy	2
Documentary Short	The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom	Lucy Walker, Kira Carstensen	3
Editing	The Artist	Anne-Sophie Bion, Michel Hazanavicius	5
Editing	The Descendants	Kevin Tent	2
Editing	The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo	Angus Wall, Kirk Baxter	3
Editing	Hugo	Thelma Schoonmaker	1
Editing	Moneyball	Christopher Tellefsen	4
Makeup	Albert Nobbs	Martial Corneville, Lynn Johnson, Matthew W. Mungle	3
Makeup	Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2	Nick Dudman, Amanda Knight, Lisa Tomblin	1
Makeup	The Iron Lady	Mark Coulier, J. Roy Helland	2
Animated Short	Dimanche	Patrick Doyon	2
Animated Short	The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore	William Joyce, Brandon Oldenburg	5
Animated Short	La Luna	Enrico Casarosa	3
Animated Short	A Morning Stroll	Grant Orchard, Sue Goffe	1
Animated Short	Wild Life	Amanda Forbis, Wendy Tilby	4
Live Action Short	Pentecost	Peter MacDonald	2
Live Action Short	Raju	Max Zähle, Stefan Giere	3
Live Action Short	The Shore	Terry George, Oorlagh George	5
Live Action Short	Time Freak	Andrew Bowler, Gigi Cause	4
Live Action Short	Tuba Atlantic	Hallvar Witzø	1
Visual Effects	Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2	Tim Burke, David Vickery, Greg Butler, John Richardson	3
Visual Effects	Hugo	Robert Legato, Joss Williams, Ben Grossmann, Alex Henning	5
Visual Effects	Real Steel	Erik Nash, John Rosengrant, Danny Gordon Taylor, Swen Gillberg	1
Visual Effects	Rise of the Planet of the Apes	Joe Letteri, Dan Lemmon, R. Christopher White, Daniel Barrett	4
Visual Effects	Transformers: Dark of the Moon	Scott Farrar, Scott Benza, Matthew E. Butler, John Frazier	2
Animated Feature	A Cat in Paris	Alain Gagnol, Jean-Loup Felicioli	4
Animated Feature	Chico & Rita	Fernando Trueba, Javier Mariscal	5
Animated Feature	Kung Fu Panda 2	Jennifer Yuh	2
Animated Feature	Puss in Boots	Chris Miller	1
Animated Feature	Rango	Gore Verbinski	3

There you go!  Now you’ll be able to see later how I did.

Remember, if you’d like to play the traditional Bufo’s Oscar Prediction Madness, and help our group accuracy, just comment this post and let me know, and I’ll send you the entry form.  Group entries are fine.

This post by Bufo Calvin originally appeared in the The Measured Circle blog.

2011 Oscar Nominations

2011 Oscar Nominations

The Oscar nominations are out!

No Andy Serkis for Supporting Actor for Rise of the Planet of the Apes. Comedies/comedians were recognized, with Melissa McCarthy (Bridesmaids) and Jonah Hill (Moneyball) being nominated, and Bridesmaids getting a Best Screenplay  nod. Shocking to some will be the omission of The Adventures of Tintin from Best Animated Feature: Spielberg didn’t beat Kung Fu Panda 2 and Puss in Boots, a sequel and what I call a sidequel respectively.

Hugo and Midnight in Paris brought the geek, as they have in other awards this year…and The Tree of Life was recognized as well.

Here are the geeky highlights, followed by a link to the official full list:

Geeky highlights

• Hugo, The Tree of Life, and Midnight in Paris are contesting for Best Picture
• A Cat in Paris, Chico & Rita, Kung Fu Panda, Puss in Boots, and Rango are up for Best Animated Feature
• Harry Potter, Hugo, and Midnight in Paris get in for Art Direction
• Hugo and The Tree of Life are nominated for Best Cinematography
• Hugo is up for Best Costume Design
• Hugo, Midnight in Paris, and The Tree of Life are all up for their directors
• Hugo is also up for Best Editing
• Harry Potter is nominated for makeup
• The Adventures of Tintin and Hugo are up for Best Score
• This may be incomplete, although it’s from the official site: only two songs are nominated, Man or Muppet from The Muppets and Real in Rio from Rio
• Sound Editing makes Transformers: Dark of the Moon an Oscar nominated movie: Hugo also picks up another nom
• Those two also share Sound Editing noms
• Visual Effects: Harry Potter; Hugo; Real Steel; Rise of the Planet of the Apes; Transformers: Dark of the Moon
• Adapted Screenplay: Hugo
• Original Screenplay: Midnight in Paris
• Animated Short: Dimanche, The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore, La Luna, A Morning Stroll, Wild Life
• Live Action Short: Time Freak (i don’t know the others well enough

Complete list

http://a.oscar.go.com/media/2012/pdf/nominees.pdf

This post by Bufo Calvin originally appeared in the The Measured Circle blog.

BOPMadness 2011 Results

BOPMadness 2011 Results

Interesting!  Just like last year, we got five out of the Big Six correct.   This year, we went with Geoffrey Rush as Supporting Actor for The King’s Speech…but just barely.  We got an 85% score on The Big Six…not bad.

On The Incredibly Difficult Maven Section, we got the following correct:

• Adapted Screenplay: The Social Network 
• Original Screenplay: The King’s Speech
• Sound Mixing (we get half on that…Inception, the winner, and The King’s Speech were in a tie in our polling)
• Sound Editing: Inception
• Song: Toy Story 3 (We Belong Together)
• Costume (half: we had Alice in Wonderland, the winner, tied with The King’s Speech)
• Makeup: (half…we had The Way Back tied with The Wolfman, which won)
• Live Action Short (one third…we had Na Wewe and Wish 143 tied with God of Love, the winner)
• Animated Feature: Toy Story 3

We missed on:

• Foreign Language Film (we picked Incendies instead of In a Better World…we were really wrong on that one)
• Art Direction (we picked The King’s Speech over Alice in Wonderland)
• Cinematography (we picked Black Swan over Inception)
• Score (we picked The King’s Speech over The Social Network)
• Documentary Feature (we picked Restrepo over Inside Job)
• Documentary Short (we picked The Warriors of Quigang over Strangers No More)
• Editing (we picked The King’s Speech over The Social Network)
• Animated Short (we picked The Gruffalo over The Lost Thing)
• Visual Effects (we had a tie between Alice and Harry Potter over Inception…just barely)

We got 85% on the Big Six, 70% on The Incredibly Difficult Maven Section, and 75% overall…not too bad.

Thanks to everyone who played!

As for me personally: I missed two out of The Big Six, and that’s somewhat unusual for me.  The ones that won were my second choices, so I end up with 33 out of a possible 35: 94%.

I got a 62 on The Incredibly Difficult Maven Section.  There were some I got really wrong.  That’s out of 85: 73%.

This post by Bufo Calvin originally appeared in the The Measured Circle blog. 

BOPMadness Oscar Predictions for 2011

BOPMadness Oscar Predictions for 2011

Once again, thank you to everyone who participated!

The BOPMadness ballots are in, and I’m getting our predictions out there before the Oscars, as usual.

I apologize that I can’t put all of the nominees names into this announcement and have it fit very well.  Our congratulations to all of them!

First, here the predictions by category:

category	section	Movie	Probability
Best Picture	Big Six	Black Swan	62%
Best Picture	Big Six	The Fighter	68%
Best Picture	Big Six	Inception	50%
Best Picture	Big Six	The Kids Are All Right	47%
Best Picture	Big Six	The King’s Speech	92%
Best Picture	Big Six	127 Hours	50%
Best Picture	Big Six	The Social Network	73%
Best Picture	Big Six	Toy Story 3	30%
Best Picture	Big Six	True Grit	47%
Best Picture	Big Six	Winter’s Bone	32%
Best Actor	Big Six	Biutiful (Javier Bardem)	50%
Best Actor	Big Six	True Grit (Jeff Bridges)	40%
Best Actor	Big Six	The Social Network (Jesse Eisenberg)	67%
Best Actor	Big Six	The King’s Speech (Colin Firth)	87%
Best Actor	Big Six	127 Hours (James Franco)	57%
Best Actress	Big Six	The Kids Are All Right (Annette Bening)	83%
Best Actress	Big Six	Rabbit Hole (Nicole Kidman)	30%
Best Actress	Big Six	Winter’s Bone (Jennifer Lawrence)	57%
Best Actress	Big Six	Black Swan (Natalie Portman)	90%
Best Actress	Big Six	Blue Valentine (Michelle Williams)	40%
Supporting Actor	Big Six	The Fighter (Christian Bale)	77%
Supporting Actor	Big Six	Winter’s Bone (John Hawkes)	43%
Supporting Actor	Big Six	The Kids Are All Right (Mark Ruffalo)	60%
Supporting Actor	Big Six	The Town (Jeremy Renner)	40%
Supporting Actor	Big Six	The King’s Speech (Geoffrey Rush)	80%
Supporting Actress	Big Six	The Fighter (Amy Adams)	53%
Supporting Actress	Big Six	The King’s Speech (Helena Bonham Carter)	50%
Supporting Actress	Big Six	The Fighter (Melissa Leo)	90%
Supporting Actress	Big Six	True Grit (Hailee Steinfeld)	67%
Supporting Actress	Big Six	Animal Kingdom (Jackie Weaver)	40%
Director	Big Six	Black Swan	67%
Director	Big Six	The Fighter	43%
Director	Big Six	The King’s Speech	70%
Director	Big Six	The Social Network	77%
Director	Big Six	True Grit	43%
Foreign Language  Film	Maven	Biutiful	73%
Foreign Language  Film	Maven	Dogtooth	53%
Foreign Language  Film	Maven	In a Better World	47%
Foreign Language  Film	Maven	Incendies	80%
Foreign Language  Film	Maven	Outside the Law (Hors-la-loi)	47%
Adapted Screenplay	Maven	127 Hours	67%
Adapted Screenplay	Maven	The Social Network	93%
Adapted Screenplay	Maven	Toy Story 3	50%
Adapted Screenplay	Maven	True Grit	50%
Adapted Screenplay	Maven	Winter’s Bone	40%
Original Screenplay	Maven	Another Year	50%
Original Screenplay	Maven	The Fighter	53%
Original Screenplay	Maven	Inception	40%
Original Screenplay	Maven	The Kids Are All Right	60%
Original Screenplay	Maven	The King’s Speech	97%
Art Direction	Maven	Alice in Wonderland	67%
Art Direction	Maven	Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1	67%
Art Direction	Maven	Inception	50%
Art Direction	Maven	The King’s Speech	80%
Art Direction	Maven	True Grit	37%
Cinematography	Maven	Black Swan	70%
Cinematography	Maven	Inception	47%
Cinematography	Maven	The King’s Speech	60%
Cinematography	Maven	The Social Network	60%
Cinematography	Maven	True Grit	63%
Sound Mixing	Maven	Inception	77%
Sound Mixing	Maven	The King’s Speech	77%
Sound Mixing	Maven	Salt	40%
Sound Mixing	Maven	The Social Network	60%
Sound Mixing	Maven	True Grit	47%
Sound Editing	Maven	Inception	83%
Sound Editing	Maven	Toy Story 3	60%
Sound Editing	Maven	TRON: Legacy	43%
Sound Editing	Maven	True Grit	67%
Sound Editing	Maven	Unstoppable	47%
Score	Maven	How to Train Your Dragon	60%
Score	Maven	Inception	53%
Score	Maven	The King’s Speech	87%
Score	Maven	127 Hours	40%
Score	Maven	The Social Network	60%
Song	Maven	Country Strong (Coming Home)	58%
Song	Maven	Tangled (I See the Light)	46%
Song	Maven	127 Hours (If I Rise)	63%
Song	Maven	Toy Story 3 (We Belong Together)	83%
Costume	Maven	Alice in Wonderland	80%
Costume	Maven	I Am Love	37%
Costume	Maven	The King’s Speech	80%
Costume	Maven	The Tempest	50%
Costume	Maven	True Grit	53%
Documentary Feature	Maven	Exit Through the Gift Shop	63%
Documentary Feature	Maven	Gasland	57%
Documentary Feature	Maven	Inside Job	57%
Documentary Feature	Maven	Restrepo	73%
Documentary Feature	Maven	Waste Land	53%
Documentary Short	Maven	Killing in the Name	70%
Documentary Short	Maven	Poster Boy	57%
Documentary Short	Maven	Strangers No More	60%
Documentary Short	Maven	Sun Come Up	40%
Documentary Short	Maven	The Warriors of Quigang	73%
Editing	Maven	Black Swan	53%
Editing	Maven	The Fighter	53%
Editing	Maven	The King’s Speech	77%
Editing	Maven	127 Hours	53%
Editing	Maven	The Social Network	63%
Makeup	Maven	Barney’s Version	56%
Makeup	Maven	The Way Back	72%
Makeup	Maven	The Wolfman	72%
Animated Short	Maven	Day & Night	67%
Animated Short	Maven	The Gruffalo	77%
Animated Short	Maven	Let’s Pollute	57%
Animated Short	Maven	The Lost Thing	57%
Animated Short	Maven	Madagascar, carnet de voyage (Madagascar, a Journey Diary)	43%
Live Action Short	Maven	The Confession	60%
Live Action Short	Maven	The Crush	50%
Live Action Short	Maven	God of Love	63%
Live Action Short	Maven	Na Wewe	63%
Live Action Short	Maven	Wish 143	63%
Visual Effects	Maven	Alice in Wonderland	77%
Visual Effects	Maven	Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1	77%
Visual Effects	Maven	Hereafter	33%
Visual Effects	Maven	Inception	73%
Visual Effects	Maven	Iron Man 2	40%
Animated Feature	Maven	How to Train Your Dragon	61%
Animated Feature	Maven	The Illusionist	56%
Animated Feature	Maven	Toy Story 3	83%

Second, I’ve sorted them by assigned probability…how likely we think each nominee is to win.

category	section	Movie	Probability
Original Screenplay	Maven	The King’s Speech	97%
Adapted Screenplay	Maven	The Social Network	93%
Best Picture	Big Six	The King’s Speech	92%
Best Actress	Big Six	Black Swan (Natalie Portman)	90%
Supporting Actress	Big Six	The Fighter (Melissa Leo)	90%
Best Actor	Big Six	The King’s Speech (Colin Firth)	87%
Score	Maven	The King’s Speech	87%
Best Actress	Big Six	The Kids Are All Right (Annette Bening)	83%
Sound Editing	Maven	Inception	83%
Song	Maven	Toy Story 3 (We Belong Together)	83%
Animated Feature	Maven	Toy Story 3	83%
Supporting Actor	Big Six	The King’s Speech (Geoffrey Rush)	80%
Foreign Language  Film	Maven	Incendies	80%
Art Direction	Maven	The King’s Speech	80%
Costume	Maven	Alice in Wonderland	80%
Costume	Maven	The King’s Speech	80%
Supporting Actor	Big Six	The Fighter (Christian Bale)	77%
Director	Big Six	The Social Network	77%
Sound Mixing	Maven	Inception	77%
Sound Mixing	Maven	The King’s Speech	77%
Editing	Maven	The King’s Speech	77%
Animated Short	Maven	The Gruffalo	77%
Visual Effects	Maven	Alice in Wonderland	77%
Visual Effects	Maven	Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1	77%
Best Picture	Big Six	The Social Network	73%
Foreign Language  Film	Maven	Biutiful	73%
Documentary Feature	Maven	Restrepo	73%
Documentary Short	Maven	The Warriors of Quigang	73%
Visual Effects	Maven	Inception	73%
Makeup	Maven	The Way Back	72%
Makeup	Maven	The Wolfman	72%
Director	Big Six	The King’s Speech	70%
Cinematography	Maven	Black Swan	70%
Documentary Short	Maven	Killing in the Name	70%
Best Picture	Big Six	The Fighter	68%
Best Actor	Big Six	The Social Network (Jesse Eisenberg)	67%
Supporting Actress	Big Six	True Grit (Hailee Steinfeld)	67%
Director	Big Six	Black Swan	67%
Adapted Screenplay	Maven	127 Hours	67%
Art Direction	Maven	Alice in Wonderland	67%
Art Direction	Maven	Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1	67%
Sound Editing	Maven	True Grit	67%
Animated Short	Maven	Day & Night	67%
Cinematography	Maven	True Grit	63%
Documentary Feature	Maven	Exit Through the Gift Shop	63%
Editing	Maven	The Social Network	63%
Live Action Short	Maven	God of Love	63%
Live Action Short	Maven	Na Wewe	63%
Live Action Short	Maven	Wish 143	63%
Song	Maven	127 Hours (If I Rise)	63%
Best Picture	Big Six	Black Swan	62%
Animated Feature	Maven	How to Train Your Dragon	61%
Supporting Actor	Big Six	The Kids Are All Right (Mark Ruffalo)	60%
Original Screenplay	Maven	The Kids Are All Right	60%
Cinematography	Maven	The King’s Speech	60%
Cinematography	Maven	The Social Network	60%
Sound Mixing	Maven	The Social Network	60%
Sound Editing	Maven	Toy Story 3	60%
Score	Maven	How to Train Your Dragon	60%
Score	Maven	The Social Network	60%
Documentary Short	Maven	Strangers No More	60%
Live Action Short	Maven	The Confession	60%
Song	Maven	Country Strong (Coming Home)	58%
Best Actor	Big Six	127 Hours (James Franco)	57%
Best Actress	Big Six	Winter’s Bone (Jennifer Lawrence)	57%
Documentary Feature	Maven	Gasland	57%
Documentary Feature	Maven	Inside Job	57%
Documentary Short	Maven	Poster Boy	57%
Animated Short	Maven	Let’s Pollute	57%
Animated Short	Maven	The Lost Thing	57%
Makeup	Maven	Barney’s Version	56%
Animated Feature	Maven	The Illusionist	56%
Supporting Actress	Big Six	The Fighter (Amy Adams)	53%
Foreign Language  Film	Maven	Dogtooth	53%
Original Screenplay	Maven	The Fighter	53%
Score	Maven	Inception	53%
Costume	Maven	True Grit	53%
Documentary Feature	Maven	Waste Land	53%
Editing	Maven	Black Swan	53%
Editing	Maven	The Fighter	53%
Editing	Maven	127 Hours	53%
Best Picture	Big Six	Inception	50%
Best Picture	Big Six	127 Hours	50%
Best Actor	Big Six	Biutiful (Javier Bardem)	50%
Supporting Actress	Big Six	The King’s Speech (Helena Bonham Carter)	50%
Adapted Screenplay	Maven	Toy Story 3	50%
Adapted Screenplay	Maven	True Grit	50%
Original Screenplay	Maven	Another Year	50%
Art Direction	Maven	Inception	50%
Costume	Maven	The Tempest	50%
Live Action Short	Maven	The Crush	50%
Best Picture	Big Six	The Kids Are All Right	47%
Best Picture	Big Six	True Grit	47%
Foreign Language  Film	Maven	In a Better World	47%
Foreign Language  Film	Maven	Outside the Law (Hors-la-loi)	47%
Cinematography	Maven	Inception	47%
Sound Mixing	Maven	True Grit	47%
Sound Editing	Maven	Unstoppable	47%
Song	Maven	Tangled (I See the Light)	46%
Supporting Actor	Big Six	Winter’s Bone (John Hawkes)	43%
Director	Big Six	The Fighter	43%
Director	Big Six	True Grit	43%
Sound Editing	Maven	TRON: Legacy	43%
Animated Short	Maven	Madagascar, carnet de voyage (Madagascar, a Journey Diary)	43%
Best Actor	Big Six	True Grit (Jeff Bridges)	40%
Best Actress	Big Six	Blue Valentine (Michelle Williams)	40%
Supporting Actor	Big Six	The Town (Jeremy Renner)	40%
Supporting Actress	Big Six	Animal Kingdom (Jackie Weaver)	40%
Adapted Screenplay	Maven	Winter’s Bone	40%
Original Screenplay	Maven	Inception	40%
Sound Mixing	Maven	Salt	40%
Score	Maven	127 Hours	40%
Documentary Short	Maven	Sun Come Up	40%
Visual Effects	Maven	Iron Man 2	40%
Art Direction	Maven	True Grit	37%
Costume	Maven	I Am Love	37%
Visual Effects	Maven	Hereafter	33%
Best Picture	Big Six	Winter’s Bone	32%
Best Picture	Big Six	Toy Story 3	30%
Best Actress	Big Six	Rabbit Hole (Nicole Kidman)	30%

Interestingly, as a group, we are most sure about the screenwriting categories…that doesn’t usually happen.  We predict a big night for The King’s Speech (no surprise there, probably), but don’t have much love for True Grit.

Our least likely wins?  Tied at 30% are Nicole Kidman for Best Actress for Rabbit Hole, and Toy Story 3 for Best Picture (although we think the latter very likely to get Best Animated Feature (83%).

I’ll check back in with the results…

See you in the movies!

This post by Bufo Calvin originally appeared in the The Measured Circle blog. 

Bufo’s Oscar Prediction Madness 2011

Bufo’s Oscar Prediction Madness 2011

For more than twenty years, I’ve been doing an Oscar prediction contest.  If you are interested in playing, comment this post and I’ll send you the spreadsheet and the instructions.  I’ll keep your post private: I will get your e-mail address, but I won’t publish it on the blog.

The more people we get, the more accurate we tend to be.  I’ll put out the group’s predictions before the Oscars are announced on February 27th.

Important note: there is no fee to play the real game, and we only play for that most valuable of human possessions…bragging rights. 

 This year, for the first time, I am going to put out my predictions publicly before I do any of the group number crunching.

Am I likely to be right?

I have a pretty good track record on the “Maven Categories”, and an okay one on the “Big Six” (the four acting categories, Director, and Picture).

I’m not feeling very good about my predictions this year, though.  I may have seen too many of the movies.  Since the goal is to predict what the Academy says, it’s better to be unprejudiced by having seen the actual movies, in my opinion.

Well, here goes. 

Best Picture

I’m going with The King’s Speech.  It’s gotten the most nominations, which is often a plus.  It’s also more traditional for the Academy.  My second guess would be The Social Network.

Best Actor

My pick is Colin Firth.  The role is an historical figure with a significant challenge…a double plus.  The quality of the performance matters too, of course.  Jesse Eisenberg would be my second choice…but he is a somewhat unlikable character, and that doesn’t help.

Best Actress

The buzz here is to pick Natalie Portman, but I’m going with Annette Bening.  I think Portman was very well-directed and cast, and did an admirable job.  But there was no reason for Bening to do as good a job as she did…it’s not as flashy a part, but she made it more than it was.  I’ll go with Portman second.

Supporting Actor

Geoffrey Rush for me on this one.  He was good, and he’ll be buoyed by the other successes of The King’s Speech.  I did think Christian Bale was great in The Fighter, but his personal travails will make it harder for his peers to want to publicly recognize him in front of such a huge audience.  I don’t know that they really think Bale cares as much about what they think…that can be a factor.

Supporting Actress

This can always be a tricky category.  I’m going to go with Melissa Leo.  I’m not entirely comfortable with that, but I think The Fighter will get something.  Why not Amy Adams?  I’m picking her second, but I think the role will be seen as less…worthy.  Again, it’s a question of doing more with less.

Director

I’m going with Tom Hooper for The King’s Speech, even though David Fincher will be seen by many as having pulled off a more complicated feat.

Foreign Language Film

Another tough category.   I’m going with Incendies from Canada, because of the Middle East story line.  I think events there will push movies having to do with the region forward.  My second choice is Biutiful from Mexico, on the idea that, if Javier Bardem isn’t going to get Best Actor, the movie can still be rewarded.

Adapted Screenplay

I think this is The Social Network walking away.  Aaron Sorkin is respected…and it’s not competing with The King’s Speech in this category.  My second choice?  Winter’s Bone.

Original Screenplay

I’m going with The King’s Speech again on this one.  I’m putting The Kids Are All Right second.

Art Direction

Alice in Wonderland is flashy enough to get my second place pick, but I’m going with The King’s Speech again.  There was a lot of amazing period set dressing in this movie.

Cinematography

The Best Picture tends to win Cinematography, so back to The King’s Speech.  My second choice is a chance for True Grit to get something…you could walk out of that moving humming the cinematography. 

Sound Mixing

I think this is a chance for Inception to pick up an Oscar.   I’m putting True Grit second here.

Sound Editing

I’m matching Sound Mixing on this one, so Inception, then True Grit.

Score

It would be nice to see Trent Reznor (and Atticus Ross) win this for The Social Network, but I’m going to put them behind Alexandre Desplat for The King’s Speech.

Song

I’m going with Randy Newman from Toy Story 3 here.  My second choice is If I Rise from 127 Hours.

Costume

Period costumes trump costume costumes, so back to The King’s Speech.  Second place, I’m going with The Tempest, although Alice in Wonderland is a temptation (Colleen Atwood has a great track record).

Documentary Feature

I’m picking Restrepo first…it sounds like an Oscar-winning name.    Second, I’ve gone with Waste Land.

Documentary Short

The Warriors of Quigang also has that Oscar ring to it…and it’s about China and pollution.  My second choice is Poster Girl…with an Iraq War tie-in.

Editing

Again, this tends to contribute or at least be associated with Best Picture, so it’s back to The King’s Speech.  My second choice is The Social Network, which had a complicated chronology.

Makeup

Rick Baker and The Wolfman?  A match made in Heaven.  I’m going with The Way Back second.

Animated Short

I’m picking The Lost Thing…it’s a real standout, looking different and having a story.  Day & Night does sound like a traditional Oscar pick, though, so that’s second.

Live Action Short

Na Wewe is my pick…it’s got that Important Theme vibe.  My second choice is Wish 143…but I’m not feeling at all sure.

Visual Effects

I actually didn’t like the effects in Inception that much, but that’s the buzz, which can affect this category, so I’m picking that.  My second choice is Alice in Wonderland: I wasn’t crazy about the movie, but the effects were great.  If The Social Network was nominated, it would have my heart…but it’s not.

Animated Feature

The Illusionist could upset, and I do have it ranked second.  However, I have to go with Toy Story 3 here.

There you go!  Now you’ll be able to see later how I did.

Remember, if you’d like to play the traditional Bufo’s Oscar Prediction Madness, and help our accuracy, just comment this post and let me know.  Group entries are fine.

This post by Bufo Calvin originally appeared in the The Measured Circle blog.

BOPMadness 2010 Results

BOPMadness 2010 Results

Well, I think we’ve had better years, but we did okay. 

We got five out of six of The Big Six section.  As a group, the one that surprised us was Mo’Nique for Best Supporting Actress.  She was tied for second in our predictions, but we had given it to Vera Farmiga. 

On the “incredibly difficult Maven section”, we were right on:

Editing: The Hurt Locker

Art Direction: Avatar

Sound Mixing: The Hurt Locker

Sound Editing: The Hurt Locker

Visual Effects: Avatar

Foreign Film: we’ll take a half on this…we had the winner, The Secret in their Eyes tied with the White Ribbon

Wrong:

Original screenplay (we picked Inglourious Basterds: Hurt Locker won)

Adapted screenplay (we picked Up in the Air: Precious won)

Cinematography (we thought it would go to the Hurt Locker: Avatar got it)

Costume (we chose Coco Before Chanel: it went to The Young Victoria)

Makeup (we went with The Young Victoria (despite having Star Trek fans in the group…it was Star Trek that beamed down the Oscar)

Score (we got this really wrong…we only gave Up a 20% probability…we’d gone with veteran James Horner and Avatar)

Original song (we figured it would go to one of the Princess and the Frog songs…it went to The Weary Kind from Crazy Heart)

Animated Feature (we really underestimated Up at the Oscars…we picked it third in this category, going with the Fantastic Mr.  Fox)

Documentary Feature (we missed this one…The Cove won, we thought either Food, Inc., or The Most Dangerous Man in America)

Documentary Short (One of our two second choices won ((Music by Prudence))…we predicted The Last Truck

Animated Short: we went with the well-known Wallace and Gromit…Logorama was only our third choice

Live Action Short: we picked Abracadabra…the Oscar went to The New Tenants

So, my first year of putting these out publicly ahead of time may not give you much confidence in it for next year.    However, this was unusual for us…the more people I get, the better the prediction, typically.  If you want to play next year, let me know…I figure I’ll make the offer to play close to the time next year, just like I did this year.

I really appreciate everybody who did play!  I’ll send individual results to the players in the next few days. 

See you in the movies!

This post by Bufo Calvin originally appeared in the The Measured Circle blog.  If you are reading this blog for free and would like to support it, just click here and then shop at Amazon.