Bufo’s Oscar Prediction Madness 2011
For more than twenty years, I’ve been doing an Oscar prediction contest. If you are interested in playing, comment this post and I’ll send you the spreadsheet and the instructions. I’ll keep your post private: I will get your e-mail address, but I won’t publish it on the blog.
The more people we get, the more accurate we tend to be. I’ll put out the group’s predictions before the Oscars are announced on February 27th.
Important note: there is no fee to play the real game, and we only play for that most valuable of human possessions…bragging rights.
This year, for the first time, I am going to put out my predictions publicly before I do any of the group number crunching.
Am I likely to be right?
I have a pretty good track record on the “Maven Categories”, and an okay one on the “Big Six” (the four acting categories, Director, and Picture).
I’m not feeling very good about my predictions this year, though. I may have seen too many of the movies. Since the goal is to predict what the Academy says, it’s better to be unprejudiced by having seen the actual movies, in my opinion.
Well, here goes.
I’m going with The King’s Speech. It’s gotten the most nominations, which is often a plus. It’s also more traditional for the Academy. My second guess would be The Social Network.
My pick is Colin Firth. The role is an historical figure with a significant challenge…a double plus. The quality of the performance matters too, of course. Jesse Eisenberg would be my second choice…but he is a somewhat unlikable character, and that doesn’t help.
The buzz here is to pick Natalie Portman, but I’m going with Annette Bening. I think Portman was very well-directed and cast, and did an admirable job. But there was no reason for Bening to do as good a job as she did…it’s not as flashy a part, but she made it more than it was. I’ll go with Portman second.
Geoffrey Rush for me on this one. He was good, and he’ll be buoyed by the other successes of The King’s Speech. I did think Christian Bale was great in The Fighter, but his personal travails will make it harder for his peers to want to publicly recognize him in front of such a huge audience. I don’t know that they really think Bale cares as much about what they think…that can be a factor.
This can always be a tricky category. I’m going to go with Melissa Leo. I’m not entirely comfortable with that, but I think The Fighter will get something. Why not Amy Adams? I’m picking her second, but I think the role will be seen as less…worthy. Again, it’s a question of doing more with less.
I’m going with Tom Hooper for The King’s Speech, even though David Fincher will be seen by many as having pulled off a more complicated feat.
Foreign Language Film
Another tough category. I’m going with Incendies from Canada, because of the Middle East story line. I think events there will push movies having to do with the region forward. My second choice is Biutiful from Mexico, on the idea that, if Javier Bardem isn’t going to get Best Actor, the movie can still be rewarded.
I think this is The Social Network walking away. Aaron Sorkin is respected…and it’s not competing with The King’s Speech in this category. My second choice? Winter’s Bone.
I’m going with The King’s Speech again on this one. I’m putting The Kids Are All Right second.
Alice in Wonderland is flashy enough to get my second place pick, but I’m going with The King’s Speech again. There was a lot of amazing period set dressing in this movie.
The Best Picture tends to win Cinematography, so back to The King’s Speech. My second choice is a chance for True Grit to get something…you could walk out of that moving humming the cinematography.
I think this is a chance for Inception to pick up an Oscar. I’m putting True Grit second here.
I’m matching Sound Mixing on this one, so Inception, then True Grit.
It would be nice to see Trent Reznor (and Atticus Ross) win this for The Social Network, but I’m going to put them behind Alexandre Desplat for The King’s Speech.
I’m going with Randy Newman from Toy Story 3 here. My second choice is If I Rise from 127 Hours.
Period costumes trump costume costumes, so back to The King’s Speech. Second place, I’m going with The Tempest, although Alice in Wonderland is a temptation (Colleen Atwood has a great track record).
I’m picking Restrepo first…it sounds like an Oscar-winning name. ;) Second, I’ve gone with Waste Land.
The Warriors of Quigang also has that Oscar ring to it…and it’s about China and pollution. My second choice is Poster Girl…with an Iraq War tie-in.
Again, this tends to contribute or at least be associated with Best Picture, so it’s back to The King’s Speech. My second choice is The Social Network, which had a complicated chronology.
Rick Baker and The Wolfman? A match made in Heaven. I’m going with The Way Back second.
I’m picking The Lost Thing…it’s a real standout, looking different and having a story. Day & Night does sound like a traditional Oscar pick, though, so that’s second.
Live Action Short
Na Wewe is my pick…it’s got that Important Theme vibe. My second choice is Wish 143…but I’m not feeling at all sure.
I actually didn’t like the effects in Inception that much, but that’s the buzz, which can affect this category, so I’m picking that. My second choice is Alice in Wonderland: I wasn’t crazy about the movie, but the effects were great. If The Social Network was nominated, it would have my heart…but it’s not.
The Illusionist could upset, and I do have it ranked second. However, I have to go with Toy Story 3 here.
There you go! Now you’ll be able to see later how I did.
Remember, if you’d like to play the traditional Bufo’s Oscar Prediction Madness, and help our accuracy, just comment this post and let me know. Group entries are fine.
This post by Bufo Calvin originally appeared in the The Measured Circle blog.