Archive for the ‘BOPMadness’ Category

2014 BOPMadness (Bufo’s Oscar Prediction Madness) results

March 3, 2014

2014 BOPMadness (Bufo’s Oscar Prediction Madness) results

This post will be updated with our individual winners, but we wanted to get you our group results right away (and include the Oscar winners).

  • Best Picture: 12 Years a Slave (predicted)
  • Lead Actor: Matthew McConaughey (half predicted…we had a tie with Chiwetel Ejiofor)
  • Lead Actress: Cate Blanchett (predicted)
  • Supporting Actor: Jared Leto (predicted)
  • Supporting Actress: Lupito Nyong’o (predicted)
  • Directing: Alfonso Cuaron (miss…we went with Steve McQueen)
  • Original Screenplay: Her (predicted)
  • Adapted Screenplay: 12 Years a Slave (miss: we predicted Philomena)
  • Animated Feature: Frozen (predicted)
  • Foreign Language Film: The Great Beauty (predicted)
  • Cinematography: Gravity (predicted)
  • Film Editing: Gravity (predicted)
  • Production Design: The Great Gatsby (predicted)
  • Costume Design: The Great Gatsby (miss…we did the American Hustle)
  • Makeup and Hairstyling: Dallas Buyers Club (predicted)
  • Music Score: Gravity (miss: we predicted Philomena)
  • Song: Let It Go from Gravity (predicted)
  • Sound Mixing: Gravity (predicted)
  • Sound Editing: Gravity (predicted)
  • Visual Effects: Gravity (predicted)
  • Documentary Feature: Twenty Feet from Stardom (miss…we said The Act of Killing)
  • Documentary Short: The Lady in Number 6 (predicted)
  • Animated Short: Mr. Hublot (miss…we had a Mickey Mouse answer, Get a Horse!)
  • Live Action Short: Helium (half-predicted: we had a tie with The Voorman Problem)

Overall, we did well! We got four and a half (the half is due to a tie) of the Big Six, and twelve and a half out of eighteen of the Incredibly Difficult Maven Section. This seemed like a difficult year, with a lot of close calls.

More analysis to come, including our percentage scores, and our individual winners.

Thanks again to everyone who played! See you in the movies!

Update: here is the individual analysis!

Team:

  • Big Six: 79.41%
  • Incredibly Difficult Maven Section: 68.07%
  • Overall: 77.38

Congratulations to Mike Weston, who won in all three categories!

  • Big Six: 100%
  • Incredibly Difficult Maven Section: 87.63%
  • Overall: 98.35%

Mike also won the Maven and Overall last year…he’s on a roll. ;)

Marianne Adoor and Neil Lapinsky (two new players) tied Mike in the Big Six: all three of these great  predictors picked all of the Big Six categories! Congratulations to you all!

This post by Bufo Calvin originally appeared in the The Measured Circle.

2014 BOPmadness (Bufo’s Oscar Prediction Madness) predictions

March 2, 2014

2014 BOPmadness (Bufo’s Oscar Prediction Madness) predictions

Thank you to everyone who made predictions!

This is being published prior to the Oscar ceremony.

Based on our respondents, this seems like it was a particularly difficult year: I don’t recall scores being this close (including two ties).

Let’s start out with the probability we collectively assigned each nominee:

Category Nominee Percent Projected Winner
Makeup & Hair Styling Dallas Buyers Club 87.50% Projected Winner
Cinematography Gravity 85.00% Projected Winner
Best Picture 12 Years a Slave 84.72% Projected Winner
Music: Song Let It Go from Frozen 84.38% Projected Winner
Lead Actress Cate Blanchett 82.50% Projected Winner
Supporting Actress Lupito Nyong’o 82.50% Projected Winner
Sound Mixing Gravity 82.50% Projected Winner
Animated Feature Frozen 82.50% Projected Winner
Best Picture American Hustle 81.94%
Lead Actor Chiwetel Ejiofor 80.00% Projected Winner
Lead Actor Matthew McConaughey 80.00% Projected Winner
Costume Design American Hustle 80.00% Projected Winner
Visual Effects Gravity 80.00% Projected Winner
Supporting Actor Jared Leto 77.50% Projected Winner
Director 12 Years a Slave 77.50% Projected Winner
Sound Editing Gravity 77.50% Projected Winner
Documentary Short The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life 77.50% Projected Winner
Cinematography Nebraska 75.00%
Film Editing Gravity 75.00% Projected Winner
Documentary Feature The Act of Killing 75.00% Projected Winner
Animated Short Get a Horse! 75.00% Projected Winner
Costume Design The Great Gatsby 72.50%
Costume Design 12 Years a Slave 72.50%
Production Design The Great Gatsby 72.50% Projected Winner
Sound Mixing Captain Phillips 72.50%
Documentary Feature 20 Feet from Stardom 72.50%
Foreign Language Film The Great Beauty 72.50% Projected Winner
Music Score Philomena 72.50% Projected Winner
Live Action Short Helium 72.50% Projected Winner
Live Action Short The Voorman Problem 72.50% Projected Winner
Supporting Actor Barkhad Abdi 70.00%
Director American Hustle 70.00%
Visual Effects The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug 67.50%
Makeup & Hair Styling The Lone Ranger 66.67%
Supporting Actress Jennifer Lawrence 65.00%
Production Design American Hustle 65.00%
Production Design Gravity 65.00%
Sound Editing Captain Phillips 65.00%
Documentary Feature The Square 65.00%
Music Score Gravity 65.00%
Best Picture Dallas Buyers Club 62.50%
Director Gravity 62.50%
Cinematography Prisoners 62.50%
Production Design 12 Years a Slave 62.50%
Animated Feature Despicable Me 2 62.50%
Animated Feature The Wind Rises 62.50%
Documentary Short Facing Fear 62.50%
Foreign Language Film The Broken Circle Breakdown 62.50%
Music Score Saving Mr. Banks 62.50%
Music: Song Ordinary Love from Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom 62.50%
Animated Short Mr. Hublot 62.50%
Best Picture Gravity 61.11%
Lead Actress Amy Adams 60.00%
Supporting Actor Bradley Cooper 60.00%
Documentary Short Prison Terminal: The Last Days of Private Jack Hall 60.00%
Foreign Language Film Omar 60.00%
Music Score Her 60.00%
Supporting Actor Michael Fassbender 57.50%
Supporting Actress Sally Hawkins 57.50%
Sound Editing The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug 57.50%
Sound Mixing Inside Llewyn Davis 57.50%
Visual Effects Iron Man 3 57.50%
Animated Short Room on the Broom 57.50%
Live Action Short Avant Que De Tout Perdre 57.50%
Music: Song The Moon Song from Her 56.25%
Supporting Actress Julia Roberts 55.00%
Film Editing American Hustle 55.00%
Film Editing 12 Years a Slave 55.00%
Documentary Short CaveDigger 55.00%
Animated Short Possessions 55.00%
Lead Actress Judi Dench 52.50%
Lead Actress Sandra Bullock 52.50%
Lead Actress Meryl Streep 52.50%
Sound Editing All Is Lost 52.50%
Animated Feature Ernest & Celstine 52.50%
Foreign Language Film The Hunt 52.50%
Foreign Language Film The Missing Picture 52.50%
Lead Actor Bruce Dern 50.00%
Director The Wolf of Wall Street 50.00%
Visual Effects Star Trek Into Darkness 50.00%
Animated Short Feral 50.00%
Live Action Short Aquel No Era Yo 50.00%
Best Picture The Wolf of Wall Street 48.61%
Lead Actor Leonardo DiCaprio 47.50%
Sound Editing Lone Survivor 47.50%
Documentary Feature Dirty Wars 47.50%
Live Action Short Pitaako Mun Kakki Hoitaa 47.50%
Music: Song Happy from Despicable Me 2 46.88%
Makeup & Hair Styling Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa 45.83%
Sound Mixing Lone Survivor 45.00%
Visual Effects The Lone Ranger 45.00%
Documentary Short Karama Has No Walls 45.00%
Best Picture Captain Phillips 44.44%
Best Picture Nebraska 43.06%
Lead Actor Christian Bale 42.50%
Director Nebraska 42.50%
Cinematography Inside Llewyn Davis 42.50%
Sound Mixing The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug 42.50%
Supporting Actress June Squibb 40.00%
Film Editing Captain Phillips 40.00%
Animated Feature The Croods 40.00%
Documentary Feature Cutie and the Boxer 40.00%
Music Score The Book Thief 40.00%
Best Picture Her 37.50%
Costume Design The Grandmaster 37.50%
Costume Design The Invisible Woman 37.50%
Film Editing Dallas Buyers Club 37.50%
Supporting Actor Jonah Hill 35.00%
Cinematography The Grandmaster 35.00%
Production Design Her 35.00%
Best Picture Philomena 34.72%

As you can see, we are most sure about Dallas Buyers Club getting Makeup and Hair Styling. We would be most shocked if Philomena won Best Picture. We split on Lead Actor and Live Action Short.

Here’s how it looks just for projected winners:

Category
Nominee
Percent
Projected Winner
Makeup & Hair Styling Dallas Buyers Club 87.50% Projected Winner
Cinematography Gravity 85.00% Projected Winner
Best Picture 12 Years a Slave 84.72% Projected Winner
Music: Song Let It Go from Frozen 84.38% Projected Winner
Lead Actress Cate Blanchett 82.50% Projected Winner
Supporting Actress Lupito Nyong’o 82.50% Projected Winner
Sound Mixing Gravity 82.50% Projected Winner
Animated Feature Frozen 82.50% Projected Winner
Lead Actor Chiwetel Ejiofor 80.00% Projected Winner
Lead Actor Matthew McConaughey 80.00% Projected Winner
Costume Design American Hustle 80.00% Projected Winner
Visual Effects Gravity 80.00% Projected Winner
Supporting Actor Jared Leto 77.50% Projected Winner
Director 12 Years a Slave 77.50% Projected Winner
Sound Editing Gravity 77.50% Projected Winner
Documentary Short The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life 77.50% Projected Winner
Film Editing Gravity 75.00% Projected Winner
Documentary Feature The Act of Killing 75.00% Projected Winner
Animated Short Get a Horse! 75.00% Projected Winner
Production Design The Great Gatsby 72.50% Projected Winner
Foreign Language Film The Great Beauty 72.50% Projected Winner
Music Score Philomena 72.50% Projected Winner
Live Action Short Helium 72.50% Projected Winner
Live Action Short The Voorman Problem 72.50% Projected Winner

We apologize that formatting precludes putting all of the nominees’ names, or identifying the movies in the acting categories. That information did appear in the surveys, which were available here:

2014 BOPMadness (Bufo’s Oscar Prediction Madness)

See you in the movies!

Update: we inadvertently left off our predictions for screenplay:

Adapted Screenplay Before Midnight 45.00% 18 8 5
Adapted Screenplay Captain Phillips 55.00% 22 8 5
Adapted Screenplay Philomena 97.50% Projected Winner 39 8 5
Adapted Screenplay 12 Years a Slave 90.00% 36 8 5
Adapted Screenplay The Wolf of Wall Street 72.50% 29 8 5
Original Screenplay American Hustle 37.50% 15 8 5
Original Screenplay Blue Jasmine 72.50% 29 8 5
Original Screenplay Dallas Buyers Club 62.50% 25 8 5
Original Screenplay Her 75.00% Projected Winner 30 8 5
Original Screenplay Nebraska 52.50% 21 8 5

This post by Bufo Calvin originally appeared in the The Measured Circle.

2014 BOPMadness (Bufo’s Oscar Prediction Madness)

February 21, 2014

2014 BOPMadness (Bufo’s Oscar Prediction Madness)

For more than twenty years, I’ve been doing an Oscar prediction contest.

Important note: there is no fee to play the  game, and we only play for that most valuable of human possessions…bragging rights. 

We do ours a bit differently than most. You rank every nominee, and then you get the number of points you assigned to the winner.

For example, there are five nominees for Actor in a Leading Role. You would assign the one you thought the Academy was most likely to pick (not necessarily the one you thought most deserved it) with a 5. Your second most likely would be a 4, and so on.

For the first time this year, we are using SurveyMonkey, rather than Excel.

That means you can play anonymously, if you prefer…we also think many people may find it easier.

There are three surveys (we are currently limited to no more than ten questions per survey):

Big Six and Screenwriting:

https://www.surveymonkey.com/s/RL8CBQX

Design and Appearance:

https://www.surveymonkey.com/s/X97YSM9

Whole Movies and Music

https://www.surveymonkey.com/s/X9CPKTZ

If you would like to be recognized as a winner of the Big Six (the acting awards, Best Picture, and Best Director), the Incredibly Difficult Maven Section (everything else), and/or Overall, you’ll have the opportunity at the site to enter your name (that will not be public). If you’d like to receive future communications about BOPMadness, you can also enter your e-mail address there (again, that will not be public).

If you have any questions, you can comment this post. If you’d like your comment to remain private, please let me know in the comment.

We will post the group predictions here before the Oscar ceremony on Sunday, March 2nd.

The more people who play, the more accurate we tend to be…feel free to share this with anyone you think would like to participate.

See you in the movies!

Nominate a child to be given a free Kindle at Give a Kid a Kindle.

This post by Bufo Calvin originally appeared in the The Measured Circle.

2013 BOPMadness (Bufo’s Oscar Prediction Madness) results

February 25, 2013

2013 BOPMadness (Bufo’s Oscar Prediction Madness) results

How did we do predicting this year’s Oscars?

As a group, we got 85%* of the possible score on the Big Six categories (the acting awards, Best Picture, Best Director), and called four out of six of them.

While we didn’t call Ang Lee (we went for Lincoln), it wasn’t a shock…he was our second choice (as a group), with a 71% probability to Spielberg’s 80%.

Christoph Waltz did surprise us (and, I think, a lot of people)…we had Tommy Lee Jones as a strong favorite (86%), and both Alan Arkin and Robert De Niro ahead of Waltz at 63% versus 49% for Waltz (we didn’t think this was Philip Seymour Hoffman’s year).

Scott Calvin is the winner on the Big Six…with 100%! Congratulations to Scott, who got those all correct.

When we get to the rest of the categories (which we call The Incredibly Difficult Maven section), we had a group score 72%. We called twelve out of the 18 categories, missing on the documentary categories, live action short, Production Design, and the screenwriting categories.

That’s not a great year for us, and there may have been some factors.

For one thing, I think it was a great movie year, perhaps the best since 1939. More high quality choices make it harder to pick.

Second, the mismatch in the number of Best Picture nominees and other category nominees can confuse things. This isn’t the first year that’s happened, but I think when a movie is up for Best Picture, you tend to weight it higher in other categories as well. You can see that impact in the screenwriting categories. This year, every adapted screenplay nominee was also up for Best Picture (as were three of the original screenplay nominees).  Last year, only three of the Adapted Screenplay nominees were also Best Picture nominees…I think that muddies the water.

Congratulations to Mike Weston, who had an 89% on the Maven section, and was our winner there! Mike also got 91% on the Big Six, and was the overall winner, with 90%!

You can play next year! Watch this space…

* Numbers are tentative: we’ll double-check this later

This post by Bufo Calvin originally appeared in the The Measured Circle blog.

2013 BOPMadness Oscar Predictions (updated with Oscar winners)

February 24, 2013

2013 BOPMadness Oscar Predictions (updated with Oscar winners)

This is being published before the start of the 2012 Oscar broadcast. (It has been updated since then with Oscar results)

It’s based on aggregate analysis of the ballots submitted in the 2013 BOPMadness (Bufo’s Oscar Prediction Madness) contest.

Thanks to everyone who played! I’ll give individual results to the winners in the next few days. We announce a winner in the Big Six (the acting categories, director, and picture), the incredibly difficult Maven section (everything else), and overall.

Note: these have been updated since first published, but still before the announcements.

First, to keep it simple, here are our predictions:

THE BIG SIX

  • Best Picture: Argo  | Winner: Argo
  • Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis for Lincoln  | Winner: Daniel Day-Lewis
  • Best Actress: Jennifer Lawrence for Silver Linings Playbook  | Winner: Jennifer Lawrence
  • Best Supporting Actor: Tommy Lee Jones for Lincoln  | Winner: Christoph Waltz
  • Best Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway for Les Misérables  | Winner: Anne Hathaway
  • Best Director: Steven Spielberg for Lincoln  | Winner: Ang Lee

THE INCREDIBLY DIFFICULT MAVEN SECTION

  • Foreign Language: Amour (Austria)  | Winner: Amour
  • Adapted Screenplay:  Tony Kushner for Lincoln  | Winner: Argo
  • Original Screenplay: Mark Boal for Zero Dark Thirty  | Winner: Django Unchained
  • Production Design: Les Misérables  | Winner: Lincoln
  • Cinematography: Life of Pi  | Winner: Life of Pi
  • Editing: William Goldenberg for Argo Winner: Argo
  • Sound Mixing: Les Misérables  | Winner: Les Misérables
  • Sound Editing: Zero Dark Thirty*  | Winner: tie between Skyfall and Zero Dark Thirty (those were our first and second picks)
  • Score: Life of Pi  | Winner: Life of Pi
  • Song: Skyfall from Skyfall  | Winner; Skyfall
  • Costume: Anna Karenina  | Winner: Anna Karenina
  • Documentary Feature: How to Survive a Plague  | Winner: Searching for Sugar Man
  • Documentary Short: Mondays at Racine  | Winner: Inocente
  • Makeup & Hair Styling: Les Misérables  | Winner: Les Misérables
  • Animated Short: Paperman  | Winner: Paperman
  • Animated Feature: Brave  | Winner: Brave
  • Live Action Short: Asad  | Winner: Curfew
  • Visual Effects: Life of Pi  | Winner: Life of Pi

Now, here are our group predictions ranked in order of what we think is most probable (Amour for Foreign Language) to the least (Django Unchained for Best Picture):

Category Movie Nominee Probability
Best Actor Lincoln Daniel Day-Lewis 97%
Best Actress Silver Linings Playbook Jennifer Lawrence 97%
Best Picture Argo Grant Heslov, Ben Affleck, George Clooney 97%
Foreign Language  Film Amour Austria 94%
Animated Feature Brave Mark Andrews, Brenda Chapman 91%
Best Picture Lincoln Steven Spielberg, Kathleen Kennedy 90%
Supporting Actress Les Misérables Anne Hathaway 89%
Costume Anna Karenina Jacqueline Durran 89%
Supporting Actor Lincoln Tommy Lee Jones 86%
Costume Les Misérables Paco Delgado 86%
Makeup & Hair Styling Les Misérables Lisa Westcott, Julie Dartnell 86%
Animated Short Paperman John Kahrs 86%
Supporting Actress Lincoln Sally Field 83%
Score Life of Pi Mychael Danna 83%
Song Skyfall Skyfall by Adele, Paul Epworth 83%
Visual Effects Life of Pi Bill Westenhofer, Guillaume Rocheron, Erik De Boer, Donald Elliott 83%
Sound Editing Zero Dark Thirty Paul N.J. Ottosson 83%
Director Lincoln Steven Spielberg 80%
Original Screenplay Zero Dark Thirty Mark Boal 80%
Editing Argo William Goldenberg 80%
Cinematography Life of Pi Claudio Miranda 77%
Sound Editing Skyfall Per Hallberg, Karen M. Baker 77%
Song Les Misérables Suddenly by Alain Boublil, Claude-Michel Schönberg, Herbert Kretzmer 77%
Live Action Short Asad Bryan Buckley, Mino Jarjoura 77%
Documentary Feature How to Survive a Plague David France, Howard Gertler 74%
Visual Effects The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey Joe Letteri, Eric Saindon, David Clayton, R. Christopher White 74%
Best Picture Silver Linings Playbook Donna Gigliotti, Bruce Cohen, Jonathan Gordon 71%
Best Actress Zero Dark Thirty Jessica Chastain 71%
Director Life of Pi Ang Lee 71%
Adapted Screenplay Lincoln Tony Kushner 71%
Production Design Les Misérables Eve Stewart, Anna-Lynch Robinson 71%
Documentary Feature The Invisible War Kirby Dick, Amy Ziering 71%
Documentary Short Mondays at Racine Cynthia Wade, Robin Honan 71%
Makeup & Hair Styling The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey Peter King, Rick Findlater, Tami Lane 71%
Visual Effects The Avengers Janek Sirrs, Jeff White, Guy Williams, Daniel Sudick 71%
Cinematography Lincoln Janusz Kaminski 69%
Animated Short Adam and Dog Minkyu Lee 69%
Live Action Short Buzkashi Boys Sam French, Ariel Nasr 69%
Live Action Short Death of a Shadow Tom Van Avermaet, Ellen De Waele 69%
Adapted Screenplay Argo Chris Terrio 66%
Adapted Screenplay Life of Pi David Magee 66%
Adapted Screenplay Silver Linings Playbook David O. Russell 66%
Original Screenplay Amour Michael Haneke 66%
Original Screenplay Moonrise Kingdom Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola 66%
Production Design Lincoln Rick Carter, Jim Erickson 66%
Sound Mixing Les Misérables Andy Nelson, Mark Paterson, Simon Hayes 66%
Score Argo Alexandre Desplat 66%
Costume Lincoln Joanna Johnston 66%
Editing Zero Dark Thirty William Goldenberg, Dylan Tichenor 66%
Animated Feature Frankenweenie Tim Burton 66%
Best Actor Silver Linings Playbook Bradley Cooper 63%
Supporting Actor Argo Alan Arkin 63%
Supporting Actor Silver Linings Playbook Robert De Niro 63%
Cinematography Skyfall Roger Deakins 63%
Sound Mixing Life of Pi Ron Bartlett, Doug Hemphill, Drew Kunin 63%
Sound Mixing Lincoln Andy Nelson, Gary Rydstrom, Ron Judkins 63%
Documentary Short Inocente Sean Fine, Andrea Nix 63%
Editing Lincoln Michael Kahn 63%
Sound Editing Argo Erik Aadahl, Ethan Van der Ryn 60%
Score Skyfall Thomas Newman 60%
Song Ted Everybody Needs a Best Friend by Walter Murphy, Seth MacFarlane 60%
Documentary Feature The Gatekeepers Dror Moreh, Philippa Korwarsky, Estelle Fialon 60%
Documentary Short Open Heart Kief Davidson, Cori Shepherd Stern 60%
Animated Feature Wreck-It Ralph Rich Moore 60%
Best Picture Life of Pi Gil Netter, Ang Lee, David Womark 57%
Best Actor Les Misérables Hugh Jackman 57%
Best Actress Amour Emmanuelle Riva 57%
Director Silver Linings Playbook David O. Russell 57%
Foreign Language  Film War Witch Canada 57%
Foreign Language  Film A Royal Affair Denmark 57%
Production Design Anna Karenina Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer 57%
Production Design Life of Pi David Gropman, Anna Pinnock 57%
Cinematography Anna Karenina Seamus McGarvey 57%
Sound Mixing Argo John T. Reitz, Gregg Rudloff, José Antonio García 57%
Documentary Feature Searching for Sugar Man Malik Bendjelloul, Simon Chinn 57%
Documentary Short Redemption Jon Alpert, Matthew O’Neill 57%
Animated Short Fresh Guacamole PES 54%
Animated Short Head Over Heels Timothy Reckart, Fodhla Cronin O’Reilly 54%
Animated Feature ParaNorman Sam Fell, Chris Butler 54%
Original Screenplay Django Unchained Quentin Tarantino 51%
Sound Mixing Skyfall Scott Millan, Greg P. Russell, Stuart Wilson 51%
Score Lincoln John Williams 51%
Editing Life of Pi Tim Squyres 51%
Best Picture Zero Dark Thirty Mark Boal, Kathryn Bigelow, Megan Ellison 51%
Supporting Actor Django Unchained Christoph Waltz 49%
Supporting Actress The Sessions Helen Hunt 49%
Production Design The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey Dan Hennah, Ra Vincent, Simon Bright 49%
Song Life of Pi Pi’s Lullaby by Mychael Danna, Bombay Jayshree 49%
Documentary Short Kings Point Sari Gilman, Jedd Wider 49%
Live Action Short Curfew Shawn Christensen 49%
Best Picture Amour Margaret Ménégoz, Stefan Arndt, Veit Heiduschka, Michael Katz 46%
Supporting Actress Silver Linings Playbook Jacki Weaver 46%
Director Amour Michael Haneke 46%
Director Beasts of the Southern Wild Benh Zeitlin 46%
Foreign Language  Film No Chile 46%
Foreign Language  Film Kon-Tiki Norway 46%
Sound Editing Life of Pi Eugene Gearty, Philip Stockton 46%
Best Actor The Master Joaquin Phoenix 43%
Makeup & Hair Styling Hitchcock Howard Berger, Peter Montagna, Martin Samual 43%
Best Actor Flight Denzel Washington 40%
Supporting Actor The Master Philip Seymour Hoffman 40%
Score Anna Karenina Dario Marianelli 40%
Editing Silver Linings Playbook Jay Cassidy, Crispin Struthers 40%
Best Picture Les Misérables Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, Debra Hayward, Cameron Mackintosh 40%
Best Actress Beasts of the Southern Wild Quvenzhané Wallis 37%
Best Actress The Impossible Naomi Watts 37%
Original Screenplay Flight John Gatins 37%
Documentary Feature 5 Broken Cameras Emad Burnat, Guy Davidi 37%
Animated Short The Simpsons: The Longest Daycare David Silverman 37%
Live Action Short Henry Yan England 37%
Visual Effects Snow White and the Huntsman Cedric Nicolas-Troyan, Phil Brennan, Neil Corbould, Michael Dawson 37%
Supporting Actress The Master Amy Adams 34%
Cinematography Django Unchained Robert Richardson 34%
Sound Editing Django Unchained Wylie Stateman 34%
Visual Effects Prometheus Richard Stammers, Trevor Wood, Charley Henley, Martin Hill 34%
Adapted Screenplay Beasts of the Southern Wild Lucy Alibar, Behn Zeitlin 31%
Song Chasing Ice Before My Time by J. Ralph 31%
Costume Mirror Mirror Eiko Ishioka 31%
Best Picture Beasts of the Southern Wild Dan Janvey, Josh Penn, Michael Gottwald 30%
Costume Snow White and the Huntsman Colleen Atwood 29%
Animated Feature The Pirates! Band of Misfits Peter Lord 29%
Best Picture Django Unchained Stacey Sher, Reginald Hudlin, Pilar Savone 17%

We’ll have to more to say after the winners announced. :) The deadline hasn’t actually been reached for submissions yet, and if we get any more, we’ll update this before the first winner is announced.

* This prediction was revised to correct an error in the submissions after the announcements.

Tentative results: we were 85% on the Big Six, 72% on the Incredibly Difficult Maven Section, and 75% overall.

This post by Bufo Calvin originally appeared in the The Measured Circle blog.

Bufo’s Oscar Prediction Madness 2013

February 16, 2013

Bufo’s Oscar Prediction Madness 2013

For more than twenty years, I’ve been doing an Oscar prediction contest.  If you are interested in playing, comment this post and I’ll send you the spreadsheet and the instructions.  I’ll keep your post private: I will get your e-mail address, but I won’t publish it on the blog.

If you actually played last year, I’ll send you an e-mail as well.

The more people we get, the more accurate we tend to be.  I’ll put out the group’s predictions before the Oscars are announced on February 24th.

Important note: there is no fee to play the real game, and we only play for that most valuable of human possessions…bragging rights. 

As I did last year, I’m going to publicly put out my own predictions before I get any from anybody playing the game. I’m not overly confident in some categories…we’ll see.

Here is a bit more about how it is done, so that my guesses will make more sense to you:

The basic idea is this: try to predict who will win the Oscars!  I’ve given you a list of all the nominees and all the categories.  The way to get the most points is to rank every nominee, with the one you think is LEAST  likely to be picked by the Academy getting a one.  You get the number of points that you assigned to the winner.  If it’s a five-nominee category (like Best Actor), and you assigned five points to the winner, you get those five points!  If you were “oh so close” and assigned it four points, you get that.  If you were totally off, you might have only given it a one.
Note that this year there are nine Best Picture nominees.  The one you think the Academy is most likely to pick gets a 9…and on down from there.
By contrast, there are only three Makeup & Hair Styling nominees, so the most you can get there is three points.
We play for that most prized of all human possessions: braggin’ rights.  :)   We recognize winners in the Big Six category (which is Best Picture, Director, and the acting categories), the Maven category, and Overall.
category Movie Nominee ranking
Best Picture Amour Margaret Ménégoz, Stefan Arndt, Veit Heiduschka, Michael Katz 2
Best Picture Argo Grant Heslov, Ben Affleck, George Clooney 8
Best Picture Beasts of the Southern Wild Dan Janvey, Josh Penn, Michael Gottwald 4
Best Picture Django Unchained Stacey Sher, Reginald Hudlin, Pilar Savone 1
Best Picture Les Misérables Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, Debra Hayward, Cameron Mackintosh 5
Best Picture Life of Pi Gil Netter, Ang Lee, David Womark 3
Best Picture Lincoln Steven Spielberg, Kathleen Kennedy 9
Best Picture Silver Linings Playbook Donna Gigliotti, Bruce Cohen, Jonathan Gordon 7
Best Picture Zero Dark Thirty Mark Boal, Kathryn Bigelow, Megan Ellison 6
Best Actor Silver Linings Playbook Bradley Cooper 3
Best Actor Lincoln Daniel Day-Lewis 5
Best Actor Les Misérables Hugh Jackman 4
Best Actor The Master Joaquin Phoenix 1
Best Actor Flight Denzel Washington 2
Best Actress Zero Dark Thirty Jessica Chastain 4
Best Actress Silver Linings Playbook Jennifer Lawrence 5
Best Actress Amour Emmanuelle Riva 2
Best Actress Beasts of the Southern Wild Quvenzhané Wallis 3
Best Actress The Impossible Naomi Watts 1
Supporting Actor Argo Alan Arkin 4
Supporting Actor Silver Linings Playbook Robert De Niro 1
Supporting Actor The Master Philip Seymour Hoffman 2
Supporting Actor Lincoln Tommy Lee Jones 5
Supporting Actor Django Unchained Christoph Waltz 3
Supporting Actress The Master Amy Adams 1
Supporting Actress Lincoln Sally Field 4
Supporting Actress Les Misérables Anne Hathaway 5
Supporting Actress The Sessions Helen Hunt 2
Supporting Actress Silver Linings Playbook Jacki Weaver 3
Director Amour Michael Haneke 1
Director Life of Pi Ang Lee 3
Director Silver Linings Playbook David O. Russell 4
Director Lincoln Steven Spielberg 5
Director Beasts of the Southern Wild Benh Zeitlin 2
Foreign Language  Film Amour Austria 5
Foreign Language  Film War Witch Canada 3
Foreign Language  Film No Chile 4
Foreign Language  Film A Royal Affair Denmark 1
Foreign Language  Film Kon-Tiki Norway 2
Adapted Screenplay Argo Chris Terrio 2
Adapted Screenplay Beasts of the Southern Wild Lucy Alibar, Behn Zeitlin 1
Adapted Screenplay Life of Pi David Magee 3
Adapted Screenplay Lincoln Tony Kushner 5
Adapted Screenplay Silver Linings Playbook David O. Russell 4
Original Screenplay Amour Michael Haneke 2
Original Screenplay Django Unchained Quentin Tarantino 1
Original Screenplay Flight John Gatins 3
Original Screenplay Moonrise Kingdom Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola 5
Original Screenplay Zero Dark Thirty Mark Boal 4
Production Design Anna Karenina Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer 3
Production Design The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey Dan Hennah, Ra Vincent, Simon Bright 1
Production Design Les Misérables Eve Stewart, Anna-Lynch Robinson 4
Production Design Life of Pi David Gropman, Anna Pinnock 2
Production Design Lincoln Rick Carter, Jim Erickson 5
Cinematography Anna Karenina Seamus McGarvey 2
Cinematography Django Unchained Robert Richardson 1
Cinematography Life of Pi Claudio Miranda 3
Cinematography Lincoln Janusz Kaminski 5
Cinematography Skyfall Roger Deakins 4
Sound Mixing Argo John T. Reitz, Gregg Rudloff, José Antonio García 3
Sound Mixing Les Misérables Andy Nelson, Mark Paterson, Simon Hayes 4
Sound Mixing Life of Pi Ron Bartlett, Doug Hemphill, Drew Kunin 2
Sound Mixing Lincoln Andy Nelson, Gary Rydstrom, Ron Judkins 5
Sound Mixing Skyfall Scott Millan, Greg P. Russell, Stuart Wilson 1
Sound Editing Argo Erik Aadahl, Ethan Van der Ryn 4
Sound Editing Django Unchained Wylie Stateman 1
Sound Editing Life of Pi Eugene Gearty, Philip Stockton 2
Sound Editing Skyfall Per Hallberg, Karen M. Baker 3
Sound Editing Zero Dark Thirty Paul N.J. Ottosson 5
Score Anna Karenina Dario Marianelli 1
Score Argo Alexandre Desplat 3
Score Life of Pi Mychael Danna 4
Score Lincoln John Williams 5
Score Skyfall Thomas Newman 2
Song Chasing Ice Before My Time by J. Ralph 1
Song Les Misérables Suddenly by Alain Boublil, Claude-Michel Schönberg, Herbert Kretzmer 4
Song Life of Pi Pi’s Lullaby by Mychael Danna, Bombay Jayshree 2
Song Skyfall Skyfall by Adele, Paul Epworth 5
Song Ted Everybody Needs a Best Friend by Walter Murphy, Seth MacFarlane 3
Costume Anna Karenina Jacqueline Durran 3
Costume Les Misérables Paco Delgado 4
Costume Lincoln Joanna Johnston 5
Costume Mirror Mirror Eiko Ishioka 1
Costume Snow White and the Huntsman Colleen Atwood 2
Documentary Feature 5 Broken Cameras Emad Burnat, Guy Davidi 1
Documentary Feature The Gatekeepers Dror Moreh, Philippa Korwarsky, Estelle Fialon 4
Documentary Feature How to Survive a Plague David France, Howard Gertler 5
Documentary Feature The Invisible War Kirby Dick, Amy Ziering 2
Documentary Feature Searching for Sugar Man Malik Bendjelloul, Simon Chinn 3
Documentary Short Inocente Sean Fine, Andrea Nix 1
Documentary Short Kings Point Sari Gilman, Jedd Wider 2
Documentary Short Mondays at Racine Cynthia Wade, Robin Honan 4
Documentary Short Open Heart Kief Davidson, Cori Shepherd Stern 3
Documentary Short Redemption Jon Alpert, Matthew O’Neill 5
Editing Argo William Goldenberg 3
Editing Life of Pi Tim Squyres 2
Editing Lincoln Michael Kahn 5
Editing Silver Linings Playbook Jay Cassidy, Crispin Struthers 1
Editing Zero Dark Thirty William Goldenberg, Dylan Tichenor 4
Makeup & Hair Styling Hitchcock Howard Berger, Peter Montagna, Martin Samual 2
Makeup & Hair Styling The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey Peter King, Rick Findlater, Tami Lane 1
Makeup & Hair Styling Les Misérables Lisa Westcott, Julie Dartnell 3
Animated Short Adam and Dog Minkyu Lee 4
Animated Short Fresh Guacamole PES 1
Animated Short Head Over Heels Timothy Reckart, Fodhla Cronin O’Reilly 2
Animated Short Paperman John Kahrs 5
Animated Short The Simpsons: The Longest Daycare David Silverman 3
Live Action Short Asad Bryan Buckley, Mino Jarjoura 5
Live Action Short Buzkashi Boys Sam French, Ariel Nasr 3
Live Action Short Curfew Shawn Christensen 2
Live Action Short Death of a Shadow Tom Van Avermaet, Ellen De Waele 4
Live Action Short Henry Yan England 1
Visual Effects The Avengers Janek Sirrs, Jeff White, Guy Williams, Daniel Sudick 4
Visual Effects The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey Joe Letteri, Eric Saindon, David Clayton, R. Christopher White 3
Visual Effects Life of Pi Bill Westenhofer, Guillaume Rocheron, Erik De Boer, Donald Elliott 5
Visual Effects Prometheus Richard Stammers, Trevor Wood, Charley Henley, Martin Hill 2
Visual Effects Snow White and the Huntsman Cedric Nicolas-Troyan, Phil Brennan, Neil Corbould, Michael Dawson 1
Animated Feature Brave Mark Andrews, Brenda Chapman 5
Animated Feature Frankenweenie Tim Burton 2
Animated Feature ParaNorman Sam Fell, Chris Butler 3
Animated Feature The Pirates! Band of Misfits Peter Lord 1
Animated Feature Wreck-It Ralph Rich Moore 4

There you go!  Now you’ll be able to see later how I did.

Remember, if you’d like to play the traditional Bufo’s Oscar Prediction Madness, and help our group accuracy, just comment this post and let me know, and I’ll send you the entry form.  Group entries are fine.

This post by Bufo Calvin originally appeared in the The Measured Circle blog.

2012 BOPMadness Oscar Group Predictions (live updates with winners)

February 26, 2012

2012 BOPMadness Oscar Predictions (live updates with winners)

This is being published before the start of the 2011 Oscar broadcast. We are updating it as each winner is announced.

It’s based on aggregate analysis of the ballots submitted in the 2012 BOPMadness (Bufo’s Oscar Prediction Madness) contest.

Thanks to everyone who played! I’ll give individual results to the winners in the next few days. We announce a winner in the Big Six (the acting categories, director, and picture), the incredibly difficult Maven section (everything else), and overall.

First, to keep it simple, here are our predictions:

  • Picture: The Artist Winner: The Artist
  • Actor: The Artist (Jean Dujardin)
  • Actress: The Help (Viola Davis) Winner: Iron Lady (Meryl Streep)
  • Supporting Actor: Beginners (Christopher Plummer) Winner: Christopher Plummer
  • Supporting Actress: The Help (Octavia Spencer) Winner: The Help
  • Director: Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist)
  • Foreign Language Film (Asghar Farhadi: Iran) Winner: Iran
  • Adapted Screenplay: The Descendants Winner: The Descendants
  • Original Screenplay: Midnight in Paris Winner: Midnight in Paris
  • Art Direction: Hugo Winner: Hugo
  • Cinematography: The Artist Winner: Hugo
  • Sound Mixing: Hugo Winner: Hugo
  • Sound Editing: War Horse Winner: Hugo
  • Score: The Artist Winner: The Artist
  • Song: The Muppets (Man or Muppet) The Winner: The Muppets
  • Costume: Hugo Winner: The Artist
  • Documentary Feature: Hell and Back Again Winner: Undefeated
  • Documentary Short: The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom Winner: Saving Face
  • Editing: The Artist Winner: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
  • Makeup: The Iron Lady Winner: The Iron Lady
  • Animated Short: The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore Winner: The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore
  • Live Action Short: The Shore Winner: The Shore
  • Visual Effects: Hugo Winner: Hugo
  • Animated Feature: Rango Winner: Rango

Now, here are our group pictures ranked in order of what we think is most probable (Supporting Actress for The Help for Octavia Spencer, Director for the Artist for Michel Hazanavicius) to the least (Costume for W.E.):

category Movie Nominee Probability
Supporting Actress The Help Octavia Spencer 97%
Director The Artist Michel Hazanavicius 97%
Art Direction Hugo Dante Ferretti, Francesca Lo Schiavo 91%
Best Actor The Artist Jean Dujardin 90%
Best Actress The Help Viola Davis 90%
Foreign Language  Film A Separation Asghar Farhadi: Iran 90%
Visual Effects Hugo Robert Legato, Joss Williams, Ben Grossmann, Alex Henning 90%
Best Picture The Artist Thomas Langmann 87%
Supporting Actor Beginners Christopher Plummer 86%
Live Action Short The Shore Terry George, Oorlagh George 86%
Best Actress The Iron Lady Meryl Streep 83%
Adapted Screenplay The Descendants Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon, Jim Rash 83%
Cinematography The Artist Guillaume Schiffman 83%
Score The Artist Ludovic Bource 83%
Costume Hugo Sandy Powell 83%
Editing The Artist Anne-Sophie Bion, Michel Hazanavicius 83%
Best Picture The Help Brunson Green, Chris Columbus, Michael Barnathan 83%
Best Picture The Descendants Jim Burke, Alexander Payne, Jim Taylor 81%
Best Actor The Descendants George Clooney 80%
Original Screenplay Midnight in Paris Woody Allen 80%
Sound Mixing Hugo Tom Fleischman, John Midgley 80%
Costume The Artist Mark Bridges 80%
Documentary Short The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom Lucy Walker, Kira Carstensen 80%
Song Rio (Real in Rio) Sergio Mendes, Carlinhos Brown, Siedah Garrett 79%
Sound Editing War Horse Richard Hymns, Gary Rydstrom 77%
Costume Jane Eyre Michael O’Connor 77%
Director Hugo Martin Scorsese 77%
Score Hugo Howard Shore 77%
Editing Hugo Thelma Schoonmaker 77%
Animated Short The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore William Joyce, Brandon Oldenburg 77%
Visual Effects Rise of the Planet of the Apes Joe Letteri, Dan Lemmon, R. Christopher White, Daniel Barrett 77%
Makeup The Iron Lady Mark Coulier, J. Roy Helland 76%
Song The Muppets (Man or Muppet) Bret McKenzie 75%
Original Screenplay The Artist Michel Hazanavicius 74%
Art Direction The Artist Laurence Bennett, Robert Gould 73%
Sound Mixing War Horse Gary Rydstrom, Andy Nelson, Tom Johnson, Stuart Wilson 73%
Documentary Short Incident in New Baghdad James Spione 73%
Animated Feature Rango Gore Verbinski 73%
Makeup Albert Nobbs Martial Corneville, Lynn Johnson, Matthew W. Mungle 72%
Score War Horse John Williams 71%
Foreign Language  Film Footnote Joseph Cedar: Israel 70%
Adapted Screenplay Moneyball Steven Zaillian, Aaron Sorkin, Stan Chervin 69%
Cinematography War Horse Janusz Kaminski 69%
Sound Mixing The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo David Parker, Michael Semanick, Ren Klyce, Bo Persson 69%
Animated Feature Puss in Boots Chris Miller 69%
Supporting Actor Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close Max Von Sydow 67%
Adapted Screenplay Hugo John Logan 67%
Sound Editing The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo Ren Klyce 67%
Documentary Feature Hell and Back Again Danfung Dennis, Mike Lerner 67%
Animated Short La Luna Enrico Casarosa 67%
Animated Short Wild Life Amanda Forbis, Wendy Tilby 67%
Foreign Language  Film In Darkness Agnieszka Holland: Poland 66%
Documentary Feature Undefeated Daniel Lindsay, T.J. Martin, Rich Middlemas 66%
Best Actor Moneyball Brad Pitt 63%
Best Actress My Week with Marilyn Michelle Williams 63%
Supporting Actress The Help Jessica Chastain 63%
Original Screenplay Bridesmaids Kristen Wiig, Annie Mumolo 63%
Cinematography Hugo Robert Richardson 63%
Documentary Feature If a Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front Marshall Curry, Sam Cullman 63%
Documentary Feature Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory Joe Berlinger, Bruce Sinofsky 63%
Documentary Short Saving Face Daniel Junge, Sharmeen Obaid-Chinoy 63%
Visual Effects Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2 Tim Burke, David Vickery, Greg Butler, John Richardson 63%
Best Picture Hugo Graham King, Martin Scorsese 61%
Supporting Actor My Week with Marilyn Kenneth Branagh 60%
Supporting Actress Bridesmaids Melissa McCarthy 60%
Animated Short A Morning Stroll Grant Orchard, Sue Goffe 60%
Live Action Short Raju Max Zähle, Stefan Giere 60%
Animated Feature Kung Fu Panda 2 Jennifer Yuh 60%
Director The Descendants Alexander Payne 57%
Art Direction Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2 Stuart Craig, Stephenie McMillan 57%
Sound Editing Hugo Philip Stockton, Eugene Gearty 57%
Live Action Short Time Freak Andrew Bowler, Gigi Cause 57%
Animated Feature Chico & Rita Fernando Trueba, Javier Mariscal 57%
Makeup Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2 Nick Dudman, Amanda Knight, Lisa Tomblin 56%
Supporting Actor Moneyball Jonah Hill 53%
Supporting Actress The Artist Bérénice Bejo 53%
Sound Mixing Transformers: Dark of the Moon Greg P. Russell, Gary Summers, Jeffrey J. Haboush, Peter J. Devlin 53%
Sound Editing Drive Lon Bender, Victor Ray Ennis 53%
Documentary Short God Is the Bigger Elvis Rebecca Cammisa, Julie Anderson 53%
Live Action Short Tuba Atlantic Hallvar Witzø 53%
Editing The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo Angus Wall, Kirk Baxter 51%
Director Midnight in Paris Woody Allen 50%
Cinematography The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo Jeff Cronenweth 50%
Sound Editing Transformers: Dark of the Moon Ethan Van der Ryn, Erik Aadahl 50%
Editing Moneyball Christopher Tellefsen 50%
Visual Effects Transformers: Dark of the Moon Scott Farrar, Scott Benza, Matthew E. Butler, John Frazier 49%
Adapted Screenplay Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy Bridget O’Connor, Peter Straughan 47%
Original Screenplay A Separation Asghar Farhadi 47%
Documentary Feature Pina Wim Wenders, Gian-Piero Ringel 47%
Editing The Descendants Kevin Tent 47%
Live Action Short Pentecost Peter MacDonald 47%
Animated Feature A Cat in Paris Alain Gagnol, Jean-Loup Felicioli 47%
Best Picture War Horse Steven Spielberg, Kathleen Kennedy 46%
Best Actress Albert Nobbs Glenn Close 46%
Best Actor Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy Gary Oldman 43%
Foreign Language  Film Monsieur Lazhar Philippe Falardeau: Canada 43%
Score Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy Alberto Iglesias 43%
Best Picture Midnight in Paris Letty Aronson, Stephen Tenenbaum 41%
Adapted Screenplay The Ides of March George Clooney, Grant Heslov, Beau  Willimon 40%
Original Screenplay Margin Call J.C. Chandor 40%
Art Direction Midnight in Paris Anne Seibel, Hélène Dubreuil 40%
Art Direction War Horse Rick Carter, Lee Sandales 40%
Cinematography The Tree of Life Emmanuel Lubezki 40%
Costume Anonymous Lisy Christi 40%
Best Picture The Tree of Life Nominees to be determined 39%
Supporting Actor Warrior Nick Nolte 37%
Director The Tree of Life Terrence Malick 37%
Foreign Language  Film Bullhead Michae R. Roskam: Belgium 37%
Animated Short Dimanche Patrick Doyon 37%
Best Picture Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close Scott Rudin 33%
Documentary Short The Barber of Birmingham: Foot Soldier of the Civil Rights Mvmt Robin Fryday, Gail Dolgin 33%
Best Picture Moneyball Michael De Luca, Rachael Horovitz, Brad Pitt 31%
Sound Mixing Moneyball Deb Adair, Ron Bochar, David Giammarco, Ed Novick 30%
Score The Adventures of Tintin John Williams 30%
Visual Effects Real Steel Erik Nash, John Rosengrant, Danny Gordon Taylor, Swen Gillberg 30%
Best Actor A Better Life Demián Bichir 27%
Best Actress The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo Roomey Mara 27%
Supporting Actress Albert Nobbs Janet McTeer 27%
Costume W.E. Arianne Phillips 23%

We’ll revisit this after the broadcast to see how we did.

To see my own predictions, see this earlier post

See you in the movies!

This post by Bufo Calvin originally appeared in the The Measured Circle blog.

Bufo’s Oscar Prediction Madness 2012

February 19, 2012

Bufo’s Oscar Prediction Madness 2012

For more than twenty years, I’ve been doing an Oscar prediction contest.  If you are interested in playing, comment this post and I’ll send you the spreadsheet and the instructions.  I’ll keep your post private: I will get your e-mail address, but I won’t publish it on the blog.

The more people we get, the more accurate we tend to be.  I’ll put out the group’s predictions before the Oscars are announced on February 26th.

Important note: there is no fee to play the real game, and we only play for that most valuable of human possessions…bragging rights. 

As I did last year, I’m going to publicly put out my own predictions before I get any from anybody playing the game. I’m not overly confident in some categories…we’ll see.

category Movie Nominee ranking
Best Picture The Artist Thomas Langmann 9
Best Picture The Descendants Jim Burke, Alexander Payne, Jim Taylor 7
Best Picture Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close Scott Rudin 5
Best Picture The Help Brunson Green, Chris Columbus, Michael Barnathan 8
Best Picture Hugo Graham King, Martin Scorsese 4
Best Picture Midnight in Paris Letty Aronson, Stephen Tenenbaum 3
Best Picture Moneyball Michael De Luca, Rachael Horovitz, Brad Pitt 6
Best Picture The Tree of Life Nominees to be determined 2
Best Picture War Horse Steven Spielberg, Kathleen Kennedy 1
Best Actor The Artist Jean Dujardin 5
Best Actor A Better Life Demián Bichir 1
Best Actor The Descendants George Clooney 3
Best Actor Moneyball Brad Pitt 4
Best Actor Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy Gary Oldman 2
Best Actress Albert Nobbs Glenn Close 2
Best Actress The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo Roomey Mara 1
Best Actress The Help Viola Davis 5
Best Actress The Iron Lady Meryl Streep 4
Best Actress My Week with Marilyn Michelle Williams 3
Supporting Actor Beginners Christopher Plummer 5
Supporting Actor Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close Max Von Sydow 4
Supporting Actor Moneyball Jonah Hill 3
Supporting Actor My Week with Marilyn Kenneth Branagh 2
Supporting Actor Warrior Nick Nolte 1
Supporting Actress Albert Nobbs Janet McTeer 3
Supporting Actress The Artist Bérénice Bejo 4
Supporting Actress Bridesmaids Melissa McCarthy 2
Supporting Actress The Help Jessica Chastain 1
Supporting Actress The Help Octavia Spencer 5
Director The Artist Michel Hazanavicius 5
Director The Descendants Alexander Payne 2
Director Hugo Martin Scorsese 4
Director Midnight in Paris Woody Allen 1
Director The Tree of Life Terrence Malick 3
Foreign Language  Film Bullhead Michae R. Roskam: Belgium 2
Foreign Language  Film Footnote Joseph Cedar: Israel 4
Foreign Language  Film In Darkness Agnieszka Holland: Poland 3
Foreign Language  Film Monsieur Lazhar Philippe Falardeau: Canada 1
Foreign Language  Film A Separation Asghar Farhadi: Iran 5
Adapted Screenplay The Descendants Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon, Jim Rash 4
Adapted Screenplay Hugo John Logan 3
Adapted Screenplay The Ides of March George Clooney, Grant Heslov, Beau  Willimon 1
Adapted Screenplay Moneyball Steven Zaillian, Aaron Sorkin, Stan Chervin 5
Adapted Screenplay Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy Bridget O’Connor, Peter Straughan 2
Original Screenplay The Artist Michel Hazanavicius 4
Original Screenplay Bridesmaids Kristen Wiig, Annie Mumolo 3
Original Screenplay Margin Call J.C. Chandor 1
Original Screenplay Midnight in Paris Woody Allen 5
Original Screenplay A Separation Asghar Farhadi 2
Art Direction The Artist Laurence Bennett, Robert Gould 5
Art Direction Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2 Stuart Craig, Stephenie McMillan 2
Art Direction Hugo Dante Ferretti, Francesca Lo Schiavo 4
Art Direction Midnight in Paris Anne Seibel, Hélène Dubreuil 3
Art Direction War Horse Rick Carter, Lee Sandales 1
Cinematography The Artist Guillaume Schiffman 5
Cinematography The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo Jeff Cronenweth 4
Cinematography Hugo Robert Richardson 3
Cinematography The Tree of Life Emmanuel Lubezki 2
Cinematography War Horse Janusz Kaminski 1
Sound Mixing The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo David Parker, Michael Semanick, Ren Klyce, Bo Persson 5
Sound Mixing Hugo Tom Fleischman, John Midgley 3
Sound Mixing Moneyball Deb Adair, Ron Bochar, David Giammarco, Ed Novick 4
Sound Mixing Transformers: Dark of the Moon Greg P. Russell, Gary Summers, Jeffrey J. Haboush, Peter J. Devlin 2
Sound Mixing War Horse Gary Rydstrom, Andy Nelson, Tom Johnson, Stuart Wilson 1
Sound Editing Drive Lon Bender, Victor Ray Ennis 4
Sound Editing The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo Ren Klyce 5
Sound Editing Hugo Philip Stockton, Eugene Gearty 3
Sound Editing Transformers: Dark of the Moon Ethan Van der Ryn, Erik Aadahl 2
Sound Editing War Horse Richard Hymns, Gary Rydstrom 1
Score The Adventures of Tintin John Williams 1
Score The Artist Ludovic Bource 5
Score Hugo Howard Shore 4
Score Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy Alberto Iglesias 2
Score War Horse John Williams 3
Song The Muppets (Man or Muppet) Bret McKenzie 2
Song Rio (Real in Rio) Sergio Mendes, Carlinhos Brown, Siedah Garrett 1
Costume Anonymous Lisy Christi 2
Costume The Artist Mark Bridges 5
Costume Hugo Sandy Powell 4
Costume Jane Eyre Michael O’Connor 3
Costume W.E. Arianne Phillips 1
Documentary Feature Hell and Back Again Danfung Dennis, Mike Lerner 1
Documentary Feature If a Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front Marshall Curry, Sam Cullman 3
Documentary Feature Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory Joe Berlinger, Bruce Sinofsky 5
Documentary Feature Pina Wim Wenders, Gian-Piero Ringel 4
Documentary Feature Undefeated Daniel Lindsay, T.J. Martin, Rich Middlemas 2
Documentary Short The Barber of Birmingham: Foot Soldier of the Civil Rights Mvmt Robin Fryday, Gail Dolgin 1
Documentary Short God Is the Bigger Elvis Rebecca Cammisa, Julie Anderson 4
Documentary Short Incident in New Baghdad James Spione 5
Documentary Short Saving Face Daniel Junge, Sharmeen Obaid-Chinoy 2
Documentary Short The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom Lucy Walker, Kira Carstensen 3
Editing The Artist Anne-Sophie Bion, Michel Hazanavicius 5
Editing The Descendants Kevin Tent 2
Editing The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo Angus Wall, Kirk Baxter 3
Editing Hugo Thelma Schoonmaker 1
Editing Moneyball Christopher Tellefsen 4
Makeup Albert Nobbs Martial Corneville, Lynn Johnson, Matthew W. Mungle 3
Makeup Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2 Nick Dudman, Amanda Knight, Lisa Tomblin 1
Makeup The Iron Lady Mark Coulier, J. Roy Helland 2
Animated Short Dimanche Patrick Doyon 2
Animated Short The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore William Joyce, Brandon Oldenburg 5
Animated Short La Luna Enrico Casarosa 3
Animated Short A Morning Stroll Grant Orchard, Sue Goffe 1
Animated Short Wild Life Amanda Forbis, Wendy Tilby 4
Live Action Short Pentecost Peter MacDonald 2
Live Action Short Raju Max Zähle, Stefan Giere 3
Live Action Short The Shore Terry George, Oorlagh George 5
Live Action Short Time Freak Andrew Bowler, Gigi Cause 4
Live Action Short Tuba Atlantic Hallvar Witzø 1
Visual Effects Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2 Tim Burke, David Vickery, Greg Butler, John Richardson 3
Visual Effects Hugo Robert Legato, Joss Williams, Ben Grossmann, Alex Henning 5
Visual Effects Real Steel Erik Nash, John Rosengrant, Danny Gordon Taylor, Swen Gillberg 1
Visual Effects Rise of the Planet of the Apes Joe Letteri, Dan Lemmon, R. Christopher White, Daniel Barrett 4
Visual Effects Transformers: Dark of the Moon Scott Farrar, Scott Benza, Matthew E. Butler, John Frazier 2
Animated Feature A Cat in Paris Alain Gagnol, Jean-Loup Felicioli 4
Animated Feature Chico & Rita Fernando Trueba, Javier Mariscal 5
Animated Feature Kung Fu Panda 2 Jennifer Yuh 2
Animated Feature Puss in Boots Chris Miller 1
Animated Feature Rango Gore Verbinski 3

There you go!  Now you’ll be able to see later how I did.

Remember, if you’d like to play the traditional Bufo’s Oscar Prediction Madness, and help our group accuracy, just comment this post and let me know, and I’ll send you the entry form.  Group entries are fine.

This post by Bufo Calvin originally appeared in the The Measured Circle blog.

2011 Oscar Nominations

January 24, 2012

2011 Oscar Nominations

The Oscar nominations are out!

No Andy Serkis for Supporting Actor for Rise of the Planet of the Apes. Comedies/comedians were recognized, with Melissa McCarthy (Bridesmaids) and Jonah Hill (Moneyball) being nominated, and Bridesmaids getting a Best Screenplay  nod. Shocking to some will be the omission of The Adventures of Tintin from Best Animated Feature: Spielberg didn’t beat Kung Fu Panda 2 and Puss in Boots, a sequel and what I call a sidequel respectively.

Hugo and Midnight in Paris brought the geek, as they have in other awards this year…and The Tree of Life was recognized as well.

Here are the geeky highlights, followed by a link to the official full list:

Geeky highlights

  • Hugo, The Tree of Life, and Midnight in Paris are contesting for Best Picture
  • A Cat in Paris, Chico & Rita, Kung Fu Panda, Puss in Boots, and Rango are up for Best Animated Feature
  • Harry Potter, Hugo, and Midnight in Paris get in for Art Direction
  • Hugo and The Tree of Life are nominated for Best Cinematography
  • Hugo is up for Best Costume Design
  • Hugo, Midnight in Paris, and The Tree of Life are all up for their directors
  • Hugo is also up for Best Editing
  • Harry Potter is nominated for makeup
  • The Adventures of Tintin and Hugo are up for Best Score
  • This may be incomplete, although it’s from the official site: only two songs are nominated, Man or Muppet from The Muppets and Real in Rio from Rio
  • Sound Editing makes Transformers: Dark of the Moon an Oscar nominated movie: Hugo also picks up another nom
  • Those two also share Sound Editing noms
  • Visual Effects: Harry Potter; Hugo; Real Steel; Rise of the Planet of the Apes; Transformers: Dark of the Moon
  • Adapted Screenplay: Hugo
  • Original Screenplay: Midnight in Paris
  • Animated Short: Dimanche, The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore, La Luna, A Morning Stroll, Wild Life
  • Live Action Short: Time Freak (i don’t know the others well enough

Complete list

http://a.oscar.go.com/media/2012/pdf/nominees.pdf

This post by Bufo Calvin originally appeared in the The Measured Circle blog.

BOPMadness 2011 Results

March 6, 2011

BOPMadness 2011 Results

Interesting!  Just like last year, we got five out of the Big Six correct.   This year, we went with Geoffrey Rush as Supporting Actor for The King’s Speech…but just barely.  We got an 85% score on The Big Six…not bad.

On The Incredibly Difficult Maven Section, we got the following correct:

  • Adapted Screenplay: The Social Network 
  • Original Screenplay: The King’s Speech
  • Sound Mixing (we get half on that…Inception, the winner, and The King’s Speech were in a tie in our polling)
  • Sound Editing: Inception
  • Song: Toy Story 3 (We Belong Together)
  • Costume (half: we had Alice in Wonderland, the winner, tied with The King’s Speech)
  • Makeup: (half…we had The Way Back tied with The Wolfman, which won)
  • Live Action Short (one third…we had Na Wewe and Wish 143 tied with God of Love, the winner)
  • Animated Feature: Toy Story 3

We missed on:

  • Foreign Language Film (we picked Incendies instead of In a Better World…we were really wrong on that one)
  • Art Direction (we picked The King’s Speech over Alice in Wonderland)
  • Cinematography (we picked Black Swan over Inception)
  • Score (we picked The King’s Speech over The Social Network)
  • Documentary Feature (we picked Restrepo over Inside Job)
  • Documentary Short (we picked The Warriors of Quigang over Strangers No More)
  • Editing (we picked The King’s Speech over The Social Network)
  • Animated Short (we picked The Gruffalo over The Lost Thing)
  • Visual Effects (we had a tie between Alice and Harry Potter over Inception…just barely)

We got 85% on the Big Six, 70% on The Incredibly Difficult Maven Section, and 75% overall…not too bad.

Thanks to everyone who played!

As for me personally: I missed two out of The Big Six, and that’s somewhat unusual for me.  The ones that won were my second choices, so I end up with 33 out of a possible 35: 94%.

I got a 62 on The Incredibly Difficult Maven Section.  There were some I got really wrong.  That’s out of 85: 73%.

This post by Bufo Calvin originally appeared in the The Measured Circle blog


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