Bufo’s Oscar Prediction Madness 2013

Bufo’s Oscar Prediction Madness 2013

For more than twenty years, I’ve been doing an Oscar prediction contest.  If you are interested in playing, comment this post and I’ll send you the spreadsheet and the instructions.  I’ll keep your post private: I will get your e-mail address, but I won’t publish it on the blog.

If you actually played last year, I’ll send you an e-mail as well.

The more people we get, the more accurate we tend to be.  I’ll put out the group’s predictions before the Oscars are announced on February 24th.

Important note: there is no fee to play the real game, and we only play for that most valuable of human possessions…bragging rights. 

As I did last year, I’m going to publicly put out my own predictions before I get any from anybody playing the game. I’m not overly confident in some categories…we’ll see.

Here is a bit more about how it is done, so that my guesses will make more sense to you:

The basic idea is this: try to predict who will win the Oscars!  I’ve given you a list of all the nominees and all the categories.  The way to get the most points is to rank every nominee, with the one you think is LEAST  likely to be picked by the Academy getting a one.  You get the number of points that you assigned to the winner.  If it’s a five-nominee category (like Best Actor), and you assigned five points to the winner, you get those five points!  If you were “oh so close” and assigned it four points, you get that.  If you were totally off, you might have only given it a one.

Note that this year there are nine Best Picture nominees.  The one you think the Academy is most likely to pick gets a 9…and on down from there.

By contrast, there are only three Makeup & Hair Styling nominees, so the most you can get there is three points.

We play for that most prized of all human possessions: braggin’ rights.  🙂   We recognize winners in the Big Six category (which is Best Picture, Director, and the acting categories), the Maven category, and Overall.

category	Movie	Nominee	ranking
Best Picture	Amour	Margaret Ménégoz, Stefan Arndt, Veit Heiduschka, Michael Katz	2
Best Picture	Argo	Grant Heslov, Ben Affleck, George Clooney	8
Best Picture	Beasts of the Southern Wild	Dan Janvey, Josh Penn, Michael Gottwald	4
Best Picture	Django Unchained	Stacey Sher, Reginald Hudlin, Pilar Savone	1
Best Picture	Les Misérables	Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, Debra Hayward, Cameron Mackintosh	5
Best Picture	Life of Pi	Gil Netter, Ang Lee, David Womark	3
Best Picture	Lincoln	Steven Spielberg, Kathleen Kennedy	9
Best Picture	Silver Linings Playbook	Donna Gigliotti, Bruce Cohen, Jonathan Gordon	7
Best Picture	Zero Dark Thirty	Mark Boal, Kathryn Bigelow, Megan Ellison	6
Best Actor	Silver Linings Playbook	Bradley Cooper	3
Best Actor	Lincoln	Daniel Day-Lewis	5
Best Actor	Les Misérables	Hugh Jackman	4
Best Actor	The Master	Joaquin Phoenix	1
Best Actor	Flight	Denzel Washington	2
Best Actress	Zero Dark Thirty	Jessica Chastain	4
Best Actress	Silver Linings Playbook	Jennifer Lawrence	5
Best Actress	Amour	Emmanuelle Riva	2
Best Actress	Beasts of the Southern Wild	Quvenzhané Wallis	3
Best Actress	The Impossible	Naomi Watts	1
Supporting Actor	Argo	Alan Arkin	4
Supporting Actor	Silver Linings Playbook	Robert De Niro	1
Supporting Actor	The Master	Philip Seymour Hoffman	2
Supporting Actor	Lincoln	Tommy Lee Jones	5
Supporting Actor	Django Unchained	Christoph Waltz	3
Supporting Actress	The Master	Amy Adams	1
Supporting Actress	Lincoln	Sally Field	4
Supporting Actress	Les Misérables	Anne Hathaway	5
Supporting Actress	The Sessions	Helen Hunt	2
Supporting Actress	Silver Linings Playbook	Jacki Weaver	3
Director	Amour	Michael Haneke	1
Director	Life of Pi	Ang Lee	3
Director	Silver Linings Playbook	David O. Russell	4
Director	Lincoln	Steven Spielberg	5
Director	Beasts of the Southern Wild	Benh Zeitlin	2
Foreign Language  Film	Amour	Austria	5
Foreign Language  Film	War Witch	Canada	3
Foreign Language  Film	No	Chile	4
Foreign Language  Film	A Royal Affair	Denmark	1
Foreign Language  Film	Kon-Tiki	Norway	2
Adapted Screenplay	Argo	Chris Terrio	2
Adapted Screenplay	Beasts of the Southern Wild	Lucy Alibar, Behn Zeitlin	1
Adapted Screenplay	Life of Pi	David Magee	3
Adapted Screenplay	Lincoln	Tony Kushner	5
Adapted Screenplay	Silver Linings Playbook	David O. Russell	4
Original Screenplay	Amour	Michael Haneke	2
Original Screenplay	Django Unchained	Quentin Tarantino	1
Original Screenplay	Flight	John Gatins	3
Original Screenplay	Moonrise Kingdom	Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola	5
Original Screenplay	Zero Dark Thirty	Mark Boal	4
Production Design	Anna Karenina	Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer	3
Production Design	The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey	Dan Hennah, Ra Vincent, Simon Bright	1
Production Design	Les Misérables	Eve Stewart, Anna-Lynch Robinson	4
Production Design	Life of Pi	David Gropman, Anna Pinnock	2
Production Design	Lincoln	Rick Carter, Jim Erickson	5
Cinematography	Anna Karenina	Seamus McGarvey	2
Cinematography	Django Unchained	Robert Richardson	1
Cinematography	Life of Pi	Claudio Miranda	3
Cinematography	Lincoln	Janusz Kaminski	5
Cinematography	Skyfall	Roger Deakins	4
Sound Mixing	Argo	John T. Reitz, Gregg Rudloff, José Antonio García	3
Sound Mixing	Les Misérables	Andy Nelson, Mark Paterson, Simon Hayes	4
Sound Mixing	Life of Pi	Ron Bartlett, Doug Hemphill, Drew Kunin	2
Sound Mixing	Lincoln	Andy Nelson, Gary Rydstrom, Ron Judkins	5
Sound Mixing	Skyfall	Scott Millan, Greg P. Russell, Stuart Wilson	1
Sound Editing	Argo	Erik Aadahl, Ethan Van der Ryn	4
Sound Editing	Django Unchained	Wylie Stateman	1
Sound Editing	Life of Pi	Eugene Gearty, Philip Stockton	2
Sound Editing	Skyfall	Per Hallberg, Karen M. Baker	3
Sound Editing	Zero Dark Thirty	Paul N.J. Ottosson	5
Score	Anna Karenina	Dario Marianelli	1
Score	Argo	Alexandre Desplat	3
Score	Life of Pi	Mychael Danna	4
Score	Lincoln	John Williams	5
Score	Skyfall	Thomas Newman	2
Song	Chasing Ice	Before My Time by J. Ralph	1
Song	Les Misérables	Suddenly by Alain Boublil, Claude-Michel Schönberg, Herbert Kretzmer	4
Song	Life of Pi	Pi’s Lullaby by Mychael Danna, Bombay Jayshree	2
Song	Skyfall	Skyfall by Adele, Paul Epworth	5
Song	Ted	Everybody Needs a Best Friend by Walter Murphy, Seth MacFarlane	3
Costume	Anna Karenina	Jacqueline Durran	3
Costume	Les Misérables	Paco Delgado	4
Costume	Lincoln	Joanna Johnston	5
Costume	Mirror Mirror	Eiko Ishioka	1
Costume	Snow White and the Huntsman	Colleen Atwood	2
Documentary Feature	5 Broken Cameras	Emad Burnat, Guy Davidi	1
Documentary Feature	The Gatekeepers	Dror Moreh, Philippa Korwarsky, Estelle Fialon	4
Documentary Feature	How to Survive a Plague	David France, Howard Gertler	5
Documentary Feature	The Invisible War	Kirby Dick, Amy Ziering	2
Documentary Feature	Searching for Sugar Man	Malik Bendjelloul, Simon Chinn	3
Documentary Short	Inocente	Sean Fine, Andrea Nix	1
Documentary Short	Kings Point	Sari Gilman, Jedd Wider	2
Documentary Short	Mondays at Racine	Cynthia Wade, Robin Honan	4
Documentary Short	Open Heart	Kief Davidson, Cori Shepherd Stern	3
Documentary Short	Redemption	Jon Alpert, Matthew O’Neill	5
Editing	Argo	William Goldenberg	3
Editing	Life of Pi	Tim Squyres	2
Editing	Lincoln	Michael Kahn	5
Editing	Silver Linings Playbook	Jay Cassidy, Crispin Struthers	1
Editing	Zero Dark Thirty	William Goldenberg, Dylan Tichenor	4
Makeup & Hair Styling	Hitchcock	Howard Berger, Peter Montagna, Martin Samual	2
Makeup & Hair Styling	The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey	Peter King, Rick Findlater, Tami Lane	1
Makeup & Hair Styling	Les Misérables	Lisa Westcott, Julie Dartnell	3
Animated Short	Adam and Dog	Minkyu Lee	4
Animated Short	Fresh Guacamole	PES	1
Animated Short	Head Over Heels	Timothy Reckart, Fodhla Cronin O’Reilly	2
Animated Short	Paperman	John Kahrs	5
Animated Short	The Simpsons: The Longest Daycare	David Silverman	3
Live Action Short	Asad	Bryan Buckley, Mino Jarjoura	5
Live Action Short	Buzkashi Boys	Sam French, Ariel Nasr	3
Live Action Short	Curfew	Shawn Christensen	2
Live Action Short	Death of a Shadow	Tom Van Avermaet, Ellen De Waele	4
Live Action Short	Henry	Yan England	1
Visual Effects	The Avengers	Janek Sirrs, Jeff White, Guy Williams, Daniel Sudick	4
Visual Effects	The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey	Joe Letteri, Eric Saindon, David Clayton, R. Christopher White	3
Visual Effects	Life of Pi	Bill Westenhofer, Guillaume Rocheron, Erik De Boer, Donald Elliott	5
Visual Effects	Prometheus	Richard Stammers, Trevor Wood, Charley Henley, Martin Hill	2
Visual Effects	Snow White and the Huntsman	Cedric Nicolas-Troyan, Phil Brennan, Neil Corbould, Michael Dawson	1
Animated Feature	Brave	Mark Andrews, Brenda Chapman	5
Animated Feature	Frankenweenie	Tim Burton	2
Animated Feature	ParaNorman	Sam Fell, Chris Butler	3
Animated Feature	The Pirates! Band of Misfits	Peter Lord	1
Animated Feature	Wreck-It Ralph	Rich Moore	4

There you go!  Now you’ll be able to see later how I did.

Remember, if you’d like to play the traditional Bufo’s Oscar Prediction Madness, and help our group accuracy, just comment this post and let me know, and I’ll send you the entry form.  Group entries are fine.

This post by Bufo Calvin originally appeared in the The Measured Circle blog.